Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 170200
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
800 PM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool this weekend with a slight chance of light snow mountains,
  foothills, and nearby plains.

- Warmer weather next week, with occasional light mountain snow
  showers through the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 PM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

An upper level low remains over the swrn US with moisture flowing
northward from it. Precipitation has been concentrated over wrn
and srn portions of CO. Can`t rule out a few snow showers
affecting the mtns south of I-70 overnight, srn foothills and
possibly the Palmer Divide. Otherwise the rest of the area should
be dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Water vapor imagery shows two troughs, one over Arizona and
another over the Upper Midwest, with dry air aloft in-between.
This subsidence between the troughs is leading to a dry day in our
CWA. Tonight, the trough over Arizona will move eastward and low
to mid level winds will slightly increase out of the northeast.
This may be just enough upslope flow along with weak QG ascent to
create a few snow showers mainly over the southern foothills and
mountains south of I-70. Any accumulation from these snow showers
would be very light and most places will just receive a trace of
snow. PoPs in the 20-30 percent range are in the forecast.

The trough over Arizona will stall and then move southward on
Sunday as an upper level ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest.
Forcing over our forecast area will weaken and any snow showers
that form should be confined to the higher mountains in the
afternoon. It doesn`t seem like there is a defined cold front
coming down from the north but a weak "push" of cooler air on
northerly winds will keep temperatures a couple of degrees cooler
on Sunday. There are no weather concerns on Sunday besides the
occasional icy road during the early morning hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A relatively tranquil pattern will dominate the long term forecast
period, with occasional light mountain snow showers interspersed
throughout the week.

Temperatures on Monday will climb close to 10 degrees under
subsident flow, with dry conditions after daybreak and the return
of ample sunshine.

By Tuesday, the subtropical jet will begin to lift northward into
Texas, helping drag the closed low in the SW CONUS eastward into
the plains through midweek. As this weakening, disorganized low
lifts over Colorado, there should be enough moisture and enhanced
westerly flow aloft to produce a few snow showers in the high
country Wednesday, but not before another warm and dry day
Tuesday. Any showers that develop Wednesday would be of little
consequence, with very light accumulations, if any.

For the second half of the work week, the deep longwave trough in
the northeast will accelerate eastward and allow for a transition
to more zonal flow aloft. This should sustain relatively mild
temperatures each day, with highs into the 60`s and generally dry
conditions for the lower elevations. In the mountains, westerly
flow will be sufficient to maintain a chance of snow showers at
times.

Guidance hints at a return of deeper troughing for the western US
for the weekend, but with the details in the upper level pattern
becoming quite murky. Nonetheless, all areas will see a bump in
precipitation chances for the Friday-Saturday timeframe, but with
nothing set in stone at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 528 PM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Ceilings have been around 5000 ft this aftn although to the north
of DIA they have been scattering out.  Confidence in ceilings
staying 5000 ft all night long isn`t high as they could scatter
out from time to time.  Should see a break in cloud cover late
tonight through 18Z Sun but 5000 ft ceilings may redevelop
after 18z. As far as winds they have become more westerly and
will go more SW by 03z.  On Sun look for light NNW winds around
12z which will shift to more NNE by 19z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Danielson
LONG TERM...Rodriguez
AVIATION...RPK


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