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000
FXUS65 KBOU 142117
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
317 PM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE RGN TONIGHT AND SAT
AS A FEW WK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS. AT THE SFC ANOTHER CDFNT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NERN CO AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW LATE
TONIGHT THRU SAT AFTN.

SCT TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE PALMER DIVIDE TOWARDS LIMON EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH AN ISOLD SVR STORM POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT AS THE CDFNT
MOVES INTO NERN CO AND A WK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NRN CO COULD
SEE NOCTURNAL STORMS NR THE WY BORDER. ON SAT LOW LVL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OVER NERN CO IN ELY LOW LVL FLOW WITH CAPES BY AFTN
IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG. LOOKS LIKE AIRMASS WILL BE CAPPED INITIALLY
HOWEVER BY LATE AFTN TEMPS SHOULD REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. TSTMS WILL THEN MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH DECENT
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SEE A FEW SVR STORMS POSSIBLE. IN THE
MTNS A RATHER DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE SO ONLY ISOLD HIGH
BASED CONVECTION. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S OVER NERN CO.


.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. WITH THIS FLOW
PATTERN THERE WILL BE MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE FOR A DIURNAL
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. WITH A MODEST SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION...DENVER CYCLONE IS OVER ERN DOUGLAS COUNTY WITH GUSTY
ELY WINDS THIS AFTN. STILL COULD BE ISOLD HIGHER BASED TSTMS THRU
01Z BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY TO THE S AND SE OF DIA. WILL
SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE SE BY 01Z. OVERNIGHT A CDFNT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NLY. THERE COULD BE A
FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT TO THE NORTH OF THE AIRPORT BUT FOR NOW WILL
KEEP TAF TSTM FREE. EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE
WHICH WILL LINGER THRU 15Z OR 16Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ELY BY
SAT AFTN WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS AFTER 21Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MAIN CONCERNS WOULD BE IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS AND
OVER PARK COUNTY WHERE VERY LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE. WINDS
WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF
ON A WARNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
HOWEVER RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRODUCING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN IN THE BURN AREAS.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...RPK