National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KBOU 160155
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
755 PM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN JUST PUSHING INTO WESTERN
COLORADO EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH A VERY SLOW EASTWARD PUSH. THERE IS A BREAK
OVER THE FRONT RANGE BUT MORE SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN IN THE MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. MAIN CHANGE TO UPCOMING FORECAST IS TO
RAISE POPS A BIT OVER THE PLAINS AND KEEP ACTIVITY GOING A BIT
LONGER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THREAT
THIS EVENING AS THE STORM TREND IS FOR WEAKENING BUT STILL SOME
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.AVIATION...RADAR SHOWING REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE TERMINALS AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE 2-4 HOURS WITH THE
SLOW MOVING LOW TO THE WEST. MAY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS WITH THE
SHOWERS BUT PROBABLY UNDER 25KT. GRADUAL CLEARING LATER TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE TONIGHT WITH
AMOUNTS GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH PER HOUR OR LESS AND THIS
WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE SHOWERS MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE LIGHTER IN INTENSITY AND
STORM MOVEMENTS WILL BE INCREASING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM MDT WED MAY 15 2013/

SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT
AND EXIT THE CWFA THURSDAY MORNING. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH AFTN HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME WEAK QG ASCENT ASSOCIATED
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AOA 700 MB...SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD
LINGER IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WEAK BOUNDARIES AND AFTN HEATING WITH SFC BASED CAPES IN
THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTN. BEST CHC OF TSTMS ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR WILL BE BEFORE 03Z...THEN THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. WITH THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...NO SEVERE
ANTICIPATED BUT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
35 MPH THAN MAIN THREATS. THE THREAT...ALBEIT LOW...FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN THE BURN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE THROUGH 01Z. FOR THURSDAY...WEAK
SUBSIDENCE WITH A RIDGE ALOFT AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FCST
CAPES PRETTY LOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER. WILL GO WITH ISOLD TSTMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THE PALMER DIVIDE AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS BUT
DRY ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A WEAK
BOUNDARY LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF KDEN WHICH COULD ACT AS AN
INITIATION MECHANISM FOR TSTMS. COULD SEE TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH A TSTM SO WILL KEEP THIS IN THE TAFS THIS AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 04Z...AMS LOOKS
TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR TSTMS THURSDAY AFTN.

HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN 30 MINUTES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO ONE HALF INCH IF A
HEAVIER SHOWER WERE TO MOVE OVER ANY OF THE BURN AREAS LATE THIS
AFTN. THE STORM THREAT SHOULD END BY 01Z IN THE BURN AREAS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....D-L
AVIATION...ENTREKIN