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000
FXUS65 KBOU 131036
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
436 AM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...COOL MOIST AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE CIRCULATION NOW CENTERED
OVER AURORA AND THE MOISTURE HAS WRAPPED AROUND IT. PLENTY OF
HIGH CLOUDS BUT NOT MANY HINTS OF LOW CLOUD SO FAR...A LITTLE BAND
FORMED IN WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SPREADING MUCH. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TODAY. LIKE
YESTERDAY...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSETTING THE OVERNIGHT
COOLING THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THE BIG
DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE HIGHER HUMIDITIES. THERE WILL BE QUITE A
BIT OF MIXING...BUT WE SHOULD BE SEEING DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND
40S TODAY INSTEAD OF THE 20S AND 30S. THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A
BIT STRONGER THOUGH...AND THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH THE COOLER
PLAINS AIR MASS WILL ALSO HELP THE SURFACE WINDS ALONG THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOKING PRETTY MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION AND
IT WILL BE PRETTY DRY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED LATE DAY
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT DRIFTS EAST IN THE EVENING
SEEMS LIKE A GOOD FORECAST...COULD BE A BIT OF CAPE TO WORK WITH
FURTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS BUT LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...MAIN THREAT
SHOULD BE MICROBURST WINDS AND/OR DRY LIGHTNING. FOOTHILLS SHOULD
OFFER THE BEST MOISTURE/HEAT COMBINATION BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN PRETTY LOW. AGAIN THE WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING THEN DIMINISH.

.LONG TERM...ON FRIDAY...THE MDLS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES ACROSS
MONTANA AND WYOMING.  THE MDLS STILL INDICATE A CHANNEL OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO. THE MDLS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MOISTURE AOA 500 MB AND
FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS SO HIGH BASED TSTMS POSSIBLE WITH
MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LIMITED RAINFALL. SURFACE BASED CAPES
AT KDEN AND KLIC ONLY IN THE 200-500 J/KG RANGE. BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG
BUT ALSO A STRONGER CAP. IF ANY SEVERE TSTMS DEVELOP...THEN
POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA. THE
MDLS DO PUSH A COOL FRONT INTO THE CWFA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR DEWPOINT AOA 50F IN THE AFTN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DENVER CYCLONE IN THE AFTN. PW VALUES ON THE GFS BUFFER AND NAM12
SOUNDINGS AROUND 0.90 INCHES WITH FCST CAPES AOA 1400 J/KG...EVEN
BETTER TO THE NORTH AND EAST ALTHO A STRONGER CAP WILL BE THERE AS
WELL. OVERALL...THE CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA FRONT THE
URBAN CORRIDOR EASTWARD LOOKS BETTER...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE WITH GOOD DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR. ON SUNDAY WITH AMS
WILL AGAIN DRY OUT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE URBAN CORRIDOR
WESTWARD...WITH LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS OVER THE NERN PLAINS
IN THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING. THE GFS PUSHES ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CWFA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...SO ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
BETTER CHANCE OF TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN AND
EVENING...FROM THE URBAN CORRIDOR EASTWARD. A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
ADVERTISED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH JUST A SLGT CHC OF LATE
AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED CLIMB BACK TO NEAR 90 AT THAT TIME.



&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A CHANCE OF LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL 15Z
TODAY...BUT THESE WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH AND EAST OF KDEN. DENVER
CYCLONE WILL CAUSE SOME DIFFICULTY WITH WIND FORECAST DURING THE
DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE NORTHERLY AT THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING...THEN SOUTH WINDS SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO KDEN AND KAPA
THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE COULD BE GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE...ESPECIALLY AT KAPA. SOME WILDFIRE SMOKE IMPACT IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN...MAINLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF DENVER. A CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KAPA FROM SMOKE THIS AFTERNOON...LESS LIKELY FURTHER
NORTH. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH THE WIND
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING ANY SMOKE AWAY FROM THE CITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHALLOW MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS WILL MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES AROUND 15 PERCENT. SOUTH WINDS
IN THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA...AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WILL CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS SOUTH OF DENVER AND IN
THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO
PROBABLY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED DRY
LIGHTNING.

ON FRIDAY...THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS BUT THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL
BE LOW. IT WILL BE COOLER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A COUPLE OF
COOL FRONTS PUSH A MOIST AND COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS AND URBAN CORRIDOR...WHICH WILL LESSEN THE FIRE DANGER. HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE AGAIN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES TODAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ211-213-214-216-241.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD