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000
FXUS65 KBOU 152131
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
331 PM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT
AND EXIT THE CWFA THURSDAY MORNING. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH AFTN HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME WEAK QG ASCENT ASSOCIATED
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE AOA 700 MB...SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD
LINGER IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WEAK BOUNDARIES AND AFTN HEATING WITH SFC BASED CAPES IN
THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTN. BEST CHC OF TSTMS ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR WILL BE BEFORE 03Z...THEN THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. WITH THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...NO SEVERE
ANTICIPATED BUT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
35 MPH THAN MAIN THREATS. THE THREAT...ALBEIT LOW...FOR HEAVY RAIN
IN THE BURN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE THROUGH 01Z. FOR THURSDAY...WEAK
SUBSIDENCE WITH A RIDGE ALOFT AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. FCST
CAPES PRETTY LOW ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER. WILL GO WITH ISOLD TSTMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THE PALMER DIVIDE AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS BUT
DRY ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A WEAK
BOUNDARY LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF KDEN WHICH COULD ACT AS AN
INITIATION MECHANISM FOR TSTMS. COULD SEE TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH A TSTM SO WILL KEEP THIS IN THE TAFS THIS AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 04Z...AMS LOOKS
TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR TSTMS THURSDAY AFTN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN 30 MINUTES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO ONE HALF INCH IF A
HEAVIER SHOWER WERE TO MOVE OVER ANY OF THE BURN AREAS LATE THIS
AFTN. THE STORM THREAT SHOULD END BY 01Z IN THE BURN AREAS.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM....D-L
AVIATION...COOPER