000
FXUS65 KBOU 231447
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
839 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.SHORT TERM...NO CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST JUST FINE TUNING GRIDS
TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE SUNSHINE EARLY THIS AM OVER DENVER. STILL HIGH
STABILITY FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS TODAY AND CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAINS HAVE ENOUGH PUNCH TO OVERCOME
STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE IN THE
FLOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WAVE AND CYCLONE IN PLACE THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT A STORM MAY MOVE OVER THE ADJ PLAINS LATER TODAY.
WILL REASSESS STABILITY PROFILE THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER UPDATE
PLANNED LATER THIS AM.

.AVIATION...DENVER CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS WITH BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 25KT AT APA/DEN WHILE BJC
HAS SHIFTED AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. STRATUS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND
PUSHING SOUTH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF DENVER WHILE LITTLE FINGERS
OF LOWER CLOUDS JUST WEST OF DIA. STILL THINK APA/DEN WILL REMAIN
VFR BUT JUST A VERY LOW PERCENT (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) CHANCE OF
A SCT-BKN CEILING AROUND 1000 FT AGL FOR A SHORT TIME BETWEEN
15-17Z AT KDEN. WILL NOT INTRODUCE THIS LOW PROB AT KDEN FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...THE BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KT HAVE KEPT THE
LOW CLOUDS AWAY FROM DEN AND APA EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING A BIG HOLE OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER DOUGLAS
COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO THE DENVER AREA...INCLUDING KDEN AND
APA. AT THIS TIME DOUBT THE STRATUS COULD MAKE IT GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY
REMOVED THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THESE TERMINALS. NO CHANGES TO BJC
WITH SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS ONGOING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013/

SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND COOLER
AIR INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. EXPECT
THE CLOUDS EAST OF DENVER AREA TO HANG ON UNTIL EARLY AFTER AND SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT BREAK OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ALL DAY OVER FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS COOLER AIR WILL CREATE A STRONG CAP. THIS CAP
PLUS SUBSIDENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE STATE WILL
MAKE IT VERY HARD FOR CONVECTION TO FORM TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS TODAY. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TODAY OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS WILL BE ABOVE THE INVERSION...SO
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF FORMING. MOST MODELS SHOW A LITTLE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY CARRY THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
AND WILL HAVE 10 POPS IN THE FORECAST.

LOW LEVEL WINDS START TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS
WILL SCOUR OUT THE MOIST AIRMASS. THE MOISTURE SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT PLANNED AT THIS TIME. ON
FRIDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWFA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE
MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE BEST CHC OF TSTMS IN THE AFTN
AND EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA E BOUNDARY. BY THE
AFTN THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM AROUND STERLING TO
AKRON TO LIMON. FCST CAPES FM THE NAM12 FCST SOUNDINGS 1500-2000
J/KG WITH ENOUGH 0-3 KM HELICITIES NEAR 100 M2/S2 TO PRODUCE A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER WEST...DRIER LOW LEVELS WITH JUST A
FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...THE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHC OF ANY TSTMS THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. A
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK BUT THE
MDLS OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. THERE MAY BE A SLGTLY BETTER
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL HOWEVER WILL KEEP
THE FCST DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 18Z. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1000 TO 2500 FEET. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET...IF THIS OCCUR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY
WILL OCCUR. JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY
23-03Z. MAY BE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY 12Z FRIDAY. EAST WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HYDROLOGY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE STORMS ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP. SO THE STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED. THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE AROUND SO A PERIOD OF BRIEF
HEAVY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF ONE
INCH IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN