Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 251646
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1046 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 AM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Low ceilings and fog have dissipated over portions of Park county
and along the foothills over DIA as daytime heating continues.
Satellite shows upper trough west of the four corners. Upper
forcing ahead of the trough will allow for convection over the
higher terrain by the afternoon and continued showers on the
plains through the evening. Will maintain current pops for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 645 AM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Upper level trough over eastern Colorado will move east of the
state this morning. Subsidence behind the trough is resulting in
clearing over much of Colorado this morning. Westerly flow aloft
will prevail through tonight behind the exiting trough over the
Central Plains and the approaching trough currently over southern
Idaho. The clearing this morning should allow to airmass to warm.
Highs are expected to reach the 70s across northeast Colorado.
Like the previous system, instability and moisture will be
limited. CAPE will generally be less than 500 J/kg and
precipitable water values will range from three-quarters of an
inch to one inch over the Front Range and eastern plains. Models
in decent agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form over the
higher terrain ahead of the trof and move eastward through the
afternoon and evening hours. Lift associated with the trough is
expected to produce scattered showers and few thunderstorms through
the evening and overnight hours, so will keep the pops going through
the night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 AM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

A weak west/southwesterly flow with a couple of weak embedded
troughs will allow for an unsettled weather pattern to continue
for friday and saturday. The mdls maintain a fair amount of
subtropical moisture over Colorado on Friday with weak mid level
qg ascent aloft. Precipitable water values fm arnd 0.8 to 1.0
inches.  NAM12 forecast sounding show good instability in the
afternoon with CAPES n the 100O-1500 j/kg from around Denver to
Limon...with lesser CAPES and more CIN over the northeast plains.
This is not the same area as was pegged in the earlier mdl runs.
Main focus will occur wherever the best aftn heating takes place.
At this time...the mdls have the northeast plains in a cooler more
stable environment. In any event...the potential for a few
strong/severe storm still does exist. The mdls do shift the first
trof axis to the east Friday night...allowing for some weak mid
level subsidence for Saturday morning. An even weaker disturbance
is progged to move out of the Four Corners region on Saturday and
pass across the cwa. Moisture still around but overall coverage
should be less. Not much change in the grids regarding the rest of
the period. A ridge of high pressure will allow for a drier and
warmer airmass to build over CO from the west for Sunday through
Wednesday. Best chc of tstms will be over the mountains...with
little or no tstm activity over the lower elevations with temperatures
will be back above normal for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1040 AM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Low ceilings and fog have dissipated over DIA with light and
variable winds. Still expect convection later this afternoon with
heating increasing instability. Best time for convection will be
22-01 or 02z with ceilings staying around 060 to 080.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bowen
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...Bowen



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