Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 270346 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
946 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Issued at 946 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

With mostly clear skies tomorrow, 700 mb temperatures increasing
by about 5 degrees C and model guidance showing a warmer trend, have
warmed max temperatures slightly tomorrow. This will produce a
forecast of 81 degrees for Denver, to break the previous record high
for the date of 80 degrees.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 131 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

An upper level ridge will continue to build over the Great Basin
region through the period. At the surface high pressure will keep
conditions dry and 2 to 15 degrees above normal. Tonight
conditions will clear with drier air moving in from the west
helping to bring clear skies overnight. Temperatures will then be
able to get down into the upper 30s to lower 40s on the plains and
20s in the mountain valleys. Thursday will be dominated by
westerly flow aloft that will help to increase downsloping along
the foothills. This will help to bring high temperatures into
possible record breaking range. Highs will be in the upper 70s to
lower 80s on the plains with 50s and 60s in the mountains under
mostly sunny skies. Winds will remain light with some gusting up
to 25 mph over the higher terrain in the afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 131 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Flow aloft will turn southwesterly Thursday night and Friday as
the upper level ridge over the region shifts to the southeast. It
will be mild Thursday night and Friday. There will be high clouds
Friday, but there should be enough sunshine to allow the eastern
plains to approach 80 degrees. The record for the Denver airport
Friday is 80 degrees and may be broken. A short wave embedded in
the southwest flow aloft over California will be sheared apart by
Saturday morning. Moisture from the wave is expected to bring mid
and high clouds. May be enough moisture and orographic lift to
produce a few light showers in the mountains. Snow level will be
high with this system, around 10k feet.

It will be slightly cooler behind this wave for Saturday with
highs in the 70s. A few showers may linger through the morning in
the mountains. Any precipitation is expected to be light. For
Sunday, temperatures will warm some with highs well into the 70s
and perhaps a few low 80s.

The next upper level system will affect the area Sunday night and
Monday. It will weaken as it races across the Great Basin and
Central Rockies. This system appears a little stronger than the
previous one, however the exact timing is still uncertain so will
have 20-40 pops in the forecast for it over the mountains. For the
Front Range and eastern plains, gusty downslope winds will keep
conditions dry.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, a mild and mainly dry southwest flow
aloft will prevail. The 12z ECMWF shows a closed low over the
Desert Southwest on Wednesday, will have low pops for the higher
terrain for this. Otherwise, expect dry and mild conditions
through the middle of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 943 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours as high
pressure dominates with mostly sunny skies. Drainage winds are
slightly enhanced tonight due to a deepening leeside surface
trough along the plains. Light southwest winds Thursday morning
will then switch to southeast around 18Z, to become drainage
again Thursday night.




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