Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 191600
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
900 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING. SOME LGT SNOW
STILL EVIDENT AT KREMMLING AND A COUPLE OF HIGHWAY CAMS WEST OF
SILVERTHORNE THIS MORNING SO WL KEEP POPS THERE THROUGH 18Z. TREND
FOR DRIER AND SLUGGISHLY WARMER STILL LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

WEB CAMS AND A SPOTTER REPORT SHOW THAT LIGHT SNOW IS STILL
FALLING IN THE WINTER PARK/BERTHOUD PASS AREA. SATELLITE SHOWS
THAT THE LOW CLOUDS OVER GRAND COUNTY SHOULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD A FEW MORE HOURS OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS NORTH AND MIDDLE PARKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS
THE STATE WILL BE UNDER GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS FROM AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT-MODERATE
AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES AT
LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL UNDERGO SOME MODEST WARMING...BUT
GENERALLY REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE WHERE SOME LINGERING SNOW COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK
A FEW DEGREES.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED IN THE
VALLEYS WHICH WILL BE HELD IN PLACE BY THE WEAK WESTERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. THIS COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING AND CLOUDINESS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES THROUGH THE DAY.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THOUGH...SINCE THE
OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL BE SO LIGHT AND A MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE
LAYER WILL LIMIT VERTICAL MOTIONS. THUS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THE PLAINS WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY TODAY. LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES ACROSS THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

MODELS HAVE FAIRLY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY...WITH A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS IN THE AFTERNOON.  STRONG NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT WELL INTO
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA IS
NEUTRAL TO WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY DOWNSLOPING...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT
COME IN AROUND 12Z MONDAY MORNING. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS A
GRADUAL INCREASE SATURDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...GETTING PRETTY DEEP
BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING CONTINUING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS INCREASES ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WESTERN PLAINS ARE DRIER WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW A TAD OF MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BIT OVER
ALL THE HIGH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SOMEWHAT SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE A TAD OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT. FOR MOUNTAIN POPS...WILL GO WITH "CHANCES" AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASE THEM TO 60-80%S SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PROGGED WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS WILL PROVIDE
DECENT OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. THE MOISTURE IS PRETTY GOOD TOO.
WILL UP THE GOING POPS AND QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER SHIFTS. FOR THE PLAINS...10-20%S
LOOK GOOD SUNDAY NIGHT. DOWNSLOPING NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WILL KEEP
THOSE AREAS DRIER FOR SURE. FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S HIGHS
ARE 0-2.5 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S. SUNDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C WARMER
THAN SATURDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
VERY STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE CWA
MONDAY WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF JET
MAXIMUMS PROGGED THROUGH THAT TIME...WITH SPEEDS UP TO 140 KNOTS.
BY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING A WEAKENING/FLATTENING UPPER
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WITH MORE GENTLE NORTHWESTERLY...THEN WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. BY THURSDAY...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ON THE
INCREASE AS AN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVES OUR WAY. IT OVER
UTAH BY 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON LATE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE FAIRLY
COLD...WEDNESDAY WARMS UP...THEN A COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE BEHIND
IT MOVES IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALPINE POPS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD OROGRAPHICS AND MOISTURE. IT
DRIES OUT CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 853 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO CIG/VSBY RESTRICTION EXPECTED.  SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...COOPER


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