Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 212104
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
304 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHING INTO COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING
OUT OVER THE PLAINS. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS BACK OVER WESTERN
WYOMING INTO CENTRAL UTAH. LOOKING AT SATELLITE HOWEVER AND
MONITORING MODEL TRENDS...EXPECTING A PUSH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEST WINDS COMING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ONTO THE PLAINS.
MOST OF THE ENERGY OF THIS SYSTEM IS HEADING NORTH OF THE AREA
HOWEVER...SO AFTER THESE TWO WAVES TONIGHT WHERE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WILL PASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY TRENDING DOWN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING BETWEEN 9000 AND 10,000
FEET...EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE THIS WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UNDER STRONGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. A FEW
SHOWERS THAT WILL BE PUSHING OUT ON THE PLAINS WILL ENCOUNTER DRY
AIR SO INITIALLY WILL LIKELY SEE VIRGA AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
THEN JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL SINK SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. THIS WILL
ALLOW WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND WILL HELP SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO AGAIN ESTABLISH IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH DOWNWARD QG
VERTICAL MOTION...WEAK CAPE...AND THE MAIN TROUGH EAST OF THE
AREA...HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
TODAY...BRINGING READINGS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF
THE RECENT AUTUMN WARM SPELL. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...HIGH HEIGHTS WITH MILD AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD LEVELS FOR THE DENVER AREA. THE
RECORD HIGH ON BOTH DAYS IS 80 DEGREES. AS THE DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ZERO.

CHANGES IN THE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A PROGRESSIVE AND VIGOROUS UPPER
TROUGH SWEEPING OVER THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
SATURDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FROM THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN ACROSS THE PLAINS. A CLOUDY
AND UNSETTLED DAY ON MONDAY SHOULD ALSO HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING BACK OVER THE STATE BY
MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY SHOULD THEN BE DRY WITH HIGHS BACK TO JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE HAS FORMED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR OR JUST
SOUTHWEST OF KDEN...MAKING WIND DIRECTION FORECASTING
CHALLENGING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL EXPECTING THE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS ALREADY FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS PUSH OFF
ENOUGH TO SWITCH ALL THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO BE
WEST...POTENTIALLY GUSTY FROM OUTFLOW. THIS PUSH IS STILL DEPICTED
IN HIRES MODELS AROUND 22-00Z. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
SLIGHTLY BEFORE ANOTHER NORTHERLY PUSH COMES AFTER 09Z FROM MAIN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE BARELY NOTICEABLE. WINDS
SHOULD END UP UPSLOPE BY THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO
COLORADO.  NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS 00Z-06Z...THEN NOT AGAIN UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. CEILINGS SHOULD
AGAIN STAY ABOVE 6000FT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN



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