Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 261623
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
923 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

RADAR SHOWING A BAND SNOW STILL HANGING ON OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. RAISED POPS FOR THIS THROUGH THE MORNING
WHERE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. INCREASED
WINDS ALONG HIGHWAY 285 ACROSS PARK COUNTY FOR TODAY. OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING GUSTS T0 60 MPH HERE...THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THESE STRONG
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. INCREASED THE FORECAST TO
INDICATE GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PLAN ON LETTING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AT NOON. WEB
CAMERAS JUST SHOWING LIGHT SNOW IN PLACES. IN GENERAL...CONDITIONS
ARE STARTING IMPROVE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...THOUGH MANY ROADS ARE
STILL SNOW COVERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.  CROSS-SECTIONS
STILL SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE MTNS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL LAPSES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THRU THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN.  MEANWHILE
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL SO EXPECT BLOWING SNOW MAINLY
ABOVE 10000 FT THUS WILL EXTEND ADVISORY THRU NOON.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NERN CO REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL BANDED PCPN THRU
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
FOCUS ENE OF A GREELEY TO LIMON LINE. WEAK UPSLOPE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE MAY LEAD TO SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AS WELL THRU MID
MORNING. BY MIDDAY SHOULD PCPN CHANCES END OVER THE PLAINS. AS FOR
HIGHS THERE COULD BE QUITE A RANGE OVER NERN CO WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER 50S AROUND DENVER WHILE FURTHER NE OVER THE PLAINS HIGHS
STAY IN THE 30S.

FOR TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF A FEW -SHSN IN THE MTNS THIS EVENING IT
SHOULD BE DRY.  A MTN WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH CROSS-MTN
FLOW IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE.  THUS WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
MTNS AND FOOTHILL AREAS BUT SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BLO HIGH WIND
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.  FOR THURSDAY...A DRYING AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASING AT MOUNTAIN
TOP THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH LACK OF MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY
EXPECT MUCH OF THE HIGHER WINDS TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
PASSES AND HIGHER EAST SLOPES WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
UNDER A VERY DRY AIRMASS. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER EAST SLOPES WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH BUT
AGAIN HIGHER WINDS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
READINGS FLIRTING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND POSSIBLE
RECORD HIGHS IF WE GET ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY UNDER STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

FOR SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROF SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WHICH SENDS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE
IN THE DAY. THE RESULT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT STILL
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP.

BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THE GFS SHOWS
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE. ON THE OTHER
HAND THE EUROPEAN HAS A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SOME EMBEDDED
SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 923 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW WILL COME TO AN END TODAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS...WHILE THE DENVER AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SNOW FREE
TODAY. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BURN OFF IN THE DENVER
AREA...AND EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH OUT THE DENVER AREA BY
18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY TODAY AND THEN TURN SOUTHERLY AFTER
00Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...ENTREKIN
AVIATION...MEIER


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