000
FXUS65 KBOU 211610
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1010 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...


&&

.SHORT TERM...QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND EVEN A FEW LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE DIVIDE. WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY. MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AM OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS BUT CLOUD COVER FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MAY SWING INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER THIS
AFTERNOON. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO ADD SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS GIVEN LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

.AVIATION...WEAK LONGMONT ANTICYCLONE THIS AM WHICH WILL RESULT IN
MORE E-SE WINDS AT APA AND BJC. WILL ADJUST LATEST TAFS
ACCORDINGLY. KDEN SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY AND MAY SWITCH MORE
NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS TODAY
BUT MAY SEE A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK PEEL OFF THE FRONT RANGE FROM
TIME TO TIME THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

SHORT TERM...GRADUAL DRYING AND WARMING TODAY AS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LOW EDGES AWAY FROM US. THERE IS STILL A PRETTY SOLID CLOUD
DECK UPSTREAM...TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK STABLE LAYER. THIS IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST...THOUGH WITH THE DRYING/WARMING I WOULD
EXPECT THAT THE AREA MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING WILL SEE FURTHER CLEARING...THEN FILL IN WITH WEAK
CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. A BIT MORE
MOISTURE/LIFT FURTHER NORTH...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORNER. AND A BIT MORE INSTABILITY OVER THE WARMER MOUNTAINS...SO
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THERE. CONTINUED DRYING AND CLEARING WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING...THEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE BUILDING RIDGE
LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL MADE FEW CHANGES...MOST NOTABLE INCREASING
THE CLOUD COVER A BIT MORE.

LONG TERM...ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PAC
NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. SFC BASED CAPES
GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG...SO NO SEVERE EXPECTED. ON
THURSDAY...A WEAK SURGE OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS...WITH A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT.
IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER AND WARMER IN THE MOUNTAINS...SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND A BIT MORE STABLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE MDLS CONTINUE WITH A DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...SO JUST A
ISOLATED TSTM COVERAGE AT BEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT BUT MAINLY OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTN AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AROUND DENVER EARLY...THEN NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN...BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. BACK TO S/W
DRAINAGE WINDS THIS EVENING.

HYDROLOGY...NO FLOODING ISSUES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN