Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBOU 271042
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
442 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COLORADO IS GOING TO BE UNDER WEAK WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN
BETWEEN THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED LAST NIGHT AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER UTAH TODAY. AT
THE SURFACE...PRESSURES WILL BE FALLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE DAY...INDUCING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND BY AFTERNOON
THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY
INDICATE 700-1000 J/KG OF CAPE...SO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INDICATED EAST OF A LIMON TO AKRON LINE...WHERE THE
STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE LOCATED. AREAS THAT SEE STRONG STORMS
DEVELOP COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING DEVELOP...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN LOCATIONS. CLOSER TO THE
FOOTHILLS SHOULD SEE A ROUND OF SHOWERS DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON
WHICH MOVES EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR BEFORE THE AFTERNOON RUSH
HOUR GETS GOING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO
SHY OF NORMALS FOR THE DATE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEST BY FRIDAY.
SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN STATE BORDER WILL KEEP HIGHER
MOISTURE AND CAPE VALUES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS COMBINED
WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER WILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF
POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS OVER THIS AREA...WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES IN
EARLIER...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I70. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH MAY BE
PUSHED IN FASTER BY DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME
DIFFERENCE OF CHANCES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH THE NAM BECOMING
QUITE DRY. WILL CONTINUE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING AND UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD.

WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT AND MORE MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. WILL STILL HAVE SOME
AVAILABLE WEAK CAPE AROUND...LEAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
AS WELL. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA KEEP
CHANGING...HOWEVER CAN EXPECT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. A HALF TO ONE INCH WILL NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING MORE
UNDER HEAVIER STORMS. WILL HAVE PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWING THE NON-NAM MODEL SOLUTIONS....AS THE NAM SEEMS TO
BE THE SLOWEST OF ALL TO PUSH THE SYSTEM THROUGH.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN A COOL DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AS
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE KEEPS A MORE STABLE COOLER UPSLOPE FLOW
REGIME OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL LIKELY SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MUCH LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO
LIKELY WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE PLAINS COULD SEE 80 OR ABOVE BY MONDAY. EXPECT A NORMAL
DIURNAL CONVECTION PATTERN THROUGH THESE DAYS AS SOME MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE RIDGE AS WELL AS SOME ADDITIONAL
BEING TRANSPORTED IN MONDAY AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MINIMAL AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET AND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE
DENVER AREA WILL ONLY BE 20-30 PERCENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE BEST TIME FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
OCCURRING WILL BE FROM 3 PM MDT TO ABOUT 7 PM MDT. STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO AVOID ANY SINGLE LOCATION RECEIVING
PROLONGED LOWER CEILINGS FROM THE PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

ONLY LIGHT RAINS FELL OVER THE CRITICAL AREAS OF LARIMER AND WELD
COUNTY LAST EVENING...SO THE SOUTH PLATTE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS
GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE WEAKLY
ORGANIZED...SO HEAVY RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SOIL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. THE FLOOD
WARNING ON THE CACHE LA POUDRE IN WELD COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE SEVERAL MORE DAYS...BUT THE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH
PLATTE RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM GREELEY MAY ONLY HAVE ONE MORE DAY TO
GO...BARRING ANY HEAVY RAINFALL.

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...DANKERS/KRIEDERMAN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.