000
FXUS65 KBOU 132142
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
342 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN IS WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND PALMER DIVIDE.

MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED OVER EASTERN COLORADO TODAY WITH
PW VALUES AROUND .75" AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING IN THE
LOWER 50S EXCEPT 30 TO 40 OVER DOUGLAS AND ELBERT COUNTIES. WELL
DEVELOPED DENVER CYCLONE AND BOUNDARY HAVE DEVELOPED WITH STRONG
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THERE IS A BIT
OF CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS BUT DOES LOOK LIKE BETTER CLEARING BEHIND
IT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AROUND 90 AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM DOUGLAS/ELBERT COUNTIES AND STRETCHING NORTHEAST OVER THE
PLAINS. MORE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE DENVER AREA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT
FOR A ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OVER DENVER AS WELL.

MODELS INDICATE STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO MCS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
PLAINS...MOST LIKELY INTO MORGAN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES BY THIS
EVENING. SURFACE BASED CAPES UPWARDS OF 2000J/KG OVER THE PLAINS
SO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE.

FOR FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHIFTS SOUTH A BIT BUT STILL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH EVEN ...SOME SEVERE OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. MOUNTAINS LOOK DRIER AS UPPER WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM
COLORADO. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES BUT RH LEVEL SHOULD BE A
BIT HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THERE WILL BE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG.
MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS BUT
LIMITED RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE
STORMS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED SHEAR. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. OTHERWISE...SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND NINE
TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND
1500-2000 J/KG. THE HIGHER VALUES CENTERED ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING A FAIRLY DECENT CAP
OVER THE AREA...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.
STILL CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE STORM DUE TO
FAVORABLE SHEAR. AIRMASS TO BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S
ACROSS THE PLAINS. STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
EXITING THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DUE TO SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY...LEADING TO INCREASING UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH COULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.
DECENT SHEAR COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR. STILL
SOME MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. MODELS SHOW GRADIENT
INCREASING ACROSS COLORADO THURSDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN WIND ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.


&&

.AVIATION...STILL MAINTAINING NORTHEAST WINDS AT APA/DEN SO
POTENTIAL STILL HOLDS FOR POSSIBLE TS AT THE TERMINALS AS TEMPS
CLIMB AROUND 90. STILL MONITORING IN CASE WE NEED TO BUMP UP TS
CHANCES AT KDEN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND
PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH 9 PM. MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ALREADY GUSTING
20-35KT AS RH LEVELS ALREADY BELOW 10 PERCENT. HUMIDITIES NOT
QUITE AS LOW AS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE WITH HUMIDITIES 10-20
PERCENT. SOME CONCERN THAT STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
DOUGLAS AND ELBERT MAY SEND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BACK INTO THE BLACK
FOREST FIRE WITH ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ211-213-214-
216-241.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....D-L
AVIATION...ENTREKIN