Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 300924
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
324 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING WILL MAKE
ITS WAY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS
HAVE LESSENED IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW HOWEVER IN THE GRIDS THIS
MORNING. WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG AS WELL THROUGH 15Z.  LIMITED
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT TODAY WITH WEAKENING QG ASCENT PROGGED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS MORNING THEN WEAK SUBSIDENCE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
STILL SHOW SHALLOW INSTABILITY PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON BELOW 700
MB. IN ADDITION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO ADVECT BACK
INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY...BUT COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN. FOR TNGT...DRIER AIR
ALOFT WITH CONTINUED DOWNWARD QG THROUGH 06Z...BUT LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME SHALLOW UPSLOPE. FOR THIS REASON WILL
CONTINUE POPS OVERNIGHT. WEAK QG ASCENT WILL START TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN CO LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A SECONDARY WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP NR THE FOUR CORNERS
ON SUN AND THEN WEAKEN INTO A SPLIT ELONGATED SYSTEM BY SUN NIGHT.
OVERALL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE WK AT BEST ON SUN. HOWEVER
PERSISTENT LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH MOISTURE UP TO 700 MB
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PCPN TO SOME AREAS.  AT THIS TIME BEST FOCUS
APPEARS TO BE IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS EAST FACING SLOPES
OF THE MTNS. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER OVER THE FAR NERN
PLAINS THRU THE AFTN HOURS. WITH HIGH SUN ANGLE AND TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING ANY ACCUMULATION AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL STAY ON GRASSY
AREAS AND BE AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST PLACES. ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
FOOTHILLS MAY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS.

AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL ACROSS NERN CO
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ALTHOUGH THE FAR NERN
CORNER COULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S.

BY SUN NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES LIGHT SELY IN THE EVENING
AND THEN WK SLY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE
BLO 700 MB SO STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN THE
MTNS AND IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS SUN EVENING BUT PCPN CHANCES
SHOULD GRADUALLY END BY MIDNIGHT IN MOST PLACES.

FOR MON A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AS
WEAK DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY AFFECTS THE AREA IN WK WLY FLOW.  BEST
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO WILL
KEEP IN A CHC OF MAINLY AFTN AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT
CHC ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE.  AS FOR HIGHS SHOULD SEE SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER
NERN CO.  BY TUE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA WITH WK FLOW ALOFT.  THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN SHOWERS IN THE MTNS.  ACROSS NERN CO
IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

ON WED THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER COLORADO WITH LESS
MOISTURE AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.  THUS SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY WITH
WARMER TEMPS AS READINGS RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  BY THU THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
STATE WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT.  SOME MOISTURE MAY BE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN SHOWERS IN THE MTNS.
ACROSS NERN CO IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

FOR FRI THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE SWRN US.  SFC LOW PRES WILL INTENSIFY
ACROSS WRN CO WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN SSE LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  AFTN CAPES ARE CURRENTLY FCST IN THE 1500-2000 RANGE
ACROSS THE PLAINS SO COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS.  ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE
AS WELL SO WILL MENTION A CHC OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSTMS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

NORTHWEST TO NORTH SFC WINDS TODAY...INCREASING IN THE 10-15KT
RANGE THIS AFTN. IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW AND FOG
THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES. LIGHT SNOW/FOG IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MORE
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS DAYTIME WARMING CAUSES THE
AIRMASS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...COOPER



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