Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 191619
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1019 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ONLY CHANGES FOR TODAY/S FORECAST GRIDS INCLUDE A DECREASE TO SKY
COVERAGE PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE MTNS WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WAS SPREADING DOWN FROM
WYOMING. OVERALL TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5-9 DEG F AHEAD OF THOSE
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPS A DEG OR
TWO. HAVE ALSO DELAYED THE SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND IN THE DENVER AREA UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN SPREADING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. OVERALL...A VERY NICE DAY TO BE OUTSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO TODAY WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING JUST TO THE EAST OF COLORADO AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SERN AZ/MX. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO ADVECT
INTO WRN AND SRN CO THIS AFTN. IF ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP TODAY
IT WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWEST OF DENVER...MAINLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE THERE.  ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME SCT- BKN MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE...OTHERWISE DRY. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH
HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S...6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF COLORADO
WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING. COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR WEAK
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30
MPH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...IT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS THURSDAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. LIGHT S-SWLY WINDS AT
DENVER AREA TERMINALS AT THE MOMENT...SHOULD BECOME N-NELY IN THE
DENVER AREA BY AROUND 18Z TODAY. THEN RETURN TO A TYPICAL DRAINAGE
PATTERN BY SUNSET. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAKER
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BAKER


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