Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 171651
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1051 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

No big changes to today`s forecast needed at this time. Have
updated this evenings forecast however as short term hires models
are picking up on a disturbance over in Utah. This disturbance is
expected to push into the area later this evening for a chance of
continued thunderstorms mainly over the mountains - with activity
likely ending by or around midnight. Have increased pops over the
mountains this evening for this.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Pocket of hot and dry air will be over northeastern Colorado
today, while there will be a bit more mid level moisture over the
mountains. This will lead to a mostly sunny and warmer day on the
plains, while there should still be some weak convection over the
mountains. Expect that the mountain storms will be moving into a
not very supportive environment as they head southeast off the
foothills in the late afternoon. There will likely be some
activity making it onto the adjacent plains, but expect it to be
weakening and not survive for long. Forecast highs today look
good, I lowered tonight`s lows on the plains a little as skies
will likely stay clear over eastern border areas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

A ridge of high pressure will continue to stretch across the
southern U.S. through the period. Tuesday into Wednesday the ridge
will be centered over Colorado and New Mexico. This will allow
a limited amounts of sub-tropical moisture into the state,
resulting in hot and generally dry conditions over the cwa. The
best chance of showers and tstms will be over the mountains with
just isolated coverage over the northeast plains. The center of
the ridge is still expected to shift into central/southern Great
Plains by Thursday. This will result in a better influx of sub-
tropical moisture into the state. Will continue with the trend of
greater coverage across the entire cwa Thursday into the weekend.
Greater cloud cover and showers will also shave a couple of
degrees of the max temperatures at that time. By Sunday, the plume
of sub-tropical moisture may shift more into southern and eastern
Colorado with drier conditions returning to the northern and
western portions of the cwa.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

VFR through Tuesday morning. Isolated storms are expected to push
off the higher terrain in the late afternoon and early evening.
Main impact will be a likely wind shift or two in this period,
with speeds less than 30 knots. Light winds mainly diurnally
driven winds otherwise.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Cooper
AVIATION...Kriederman


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