000
FXUS65 KBOU 171007
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
407 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...DRIER AIR IN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AT THE SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FM SERN WY INTO ERN CO WITH INCREASING SLY WINDS BY AFTN OVER THE
NERN PLAINS. LATE AFTN CAPES WILL RANGE FM 1500-2000 J/KG OVER THE
FAR NERN CORNER EAST OF A STERLING TO LIMON LINE. SOUNDINGS SHOW
CAP ERODING AFTER 22Z SO COULD SEE SOME ISOLD STORMS THRU 03Z.
WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE IF A FEW STORMS DO DVLP THEY COULD
BECOME SVR. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY OVER THE REST OF THE AREA
WITH AFTN HIGHS WELL ABV NORMAL. CURRENT 850-700 MB TEMPS WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF NERN
CO. RECORD HIGH AT DENVER IS 91 SO IT COULD GET CLOSE THIS AFTN.


.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THINKING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWLY
EVOLVING UPPER AIR PATTERN THAT FEATURES A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
SETTLING OVER THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TAKING TIL
TUESDAY TO MOVE ON TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH
LAGS OVER THE STATE...COOLER AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG...SO PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL ONLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE SET APPEARS TO BE MONDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THE COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD HELP
THE SPRING VEGETATION STAY GREEN FOR A LITTLE LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU TONIGHT. SLY WIND EARLY THIS MORNING MAY
BECOME MORE SWLY BY 14Z. BY 18Z THE RAP HAS THE WINDS STAYING SSW
WHILE THE NAM IS MORE WLY. BY 21Z BOTH MODELS SHOW THE WNDS SSW.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP THEM SSW THRU THE AFTN. FOR TONIGHT WILL KEEP
THE WINDS DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK