Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 010943
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
343 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY TODAY THRU TONIGHT.  ONCE AGAIN
DECENT LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE MID LVLS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HIGH BASED STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS AND ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY MID AFTN.  CAPES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OVER THE
PLAINS SO ANY SVR ACTIVITY WILL BE RATHER ISOLD.  HIGHS THIS AFTN
WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END OVER THE PLAINS
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

LOOKS LIKE WE ARE GOING TO BE TRANSITIONING BACK TO A WET WEATHER
PATTERN AFTER THE DRYING AND WARMING OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY DRY AND WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY
TRANSPORT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA TO FUEL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL MEAN SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE FIELDS SHOW A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL PRODUCE DRYING DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND
OUT ONTO THE PLAINS AND WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
OVER THE WESTERN KANSAS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK WITH
READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THINGS BEGIN CHANGING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST
AND THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH ON THE PLAINS TRANSITIONS TO A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAK EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL BEGIN MOVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND
I-25 CORRIDOR. ALOFT...A MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET
WILL MOVE OVER COLORADO FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ALL OF THE
INGREDIENTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE COMING TOGETHER
AND THEN REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
COLORADO AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS AND REMAINS OVER TEXAS WHILE
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA FORMS AND THEN HAS NOWHERE TO GO
BECAUSE OF A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE UPPER
HIGH OVER TEXAS. NO FIRE WEATHER WORRIES FOR AS LONG AS THIS
PATTERN PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

WINDS WILL BE SSW THRU 14Z AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BETWEEN 14Z
AND 18Z.  BY EARLY AFTN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM HIGH BASED STORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS WHICH MAY SWITCH WINDS TO THE
WEST OR SOUTHWEST THRU MID TO LATE AFTN.  FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION
VCTS IN THE 20Z TO 01Z TIME PERIOD.  WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME MORE SSW AS DRAINAGE WINDS DEVELOP AFT 03Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

STORMS THIS AFTN WILL BE QUICK MOVING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH IN MOST AREAS. WARM TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND TUE WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOWMELT AND HIGHER
STREAMFLOWS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK


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