Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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594
FXUS65 KBOU 111615
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
915 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

WITH A HUGE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN...NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY
WITH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-FEBRUARY...BUT
READINGS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. SATELLITE
PICTURES SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MAKING IT OVER
THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL BE MOVING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
COLORADO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL
BE PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY. WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THEY HAVE
BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO A DECREASE IN GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE FOOTHILLS IS EXPECTED. HIGH ELEVATIONS AND EASTERN SLOPES MAY
STILL SEE GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
OTHER WEATHER...BE SURE TO ENJOY THE EARLY TASTE OF SPRING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON FRI WITH NO PCPN
EXPECTED.  A SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS WITH FAR NERN CO BEING ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS WHILE
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THERE WILL BE LESS IMPACT.  WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE 30S OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER WITH LOWER TO MID 50S AROUND THE
DENVER AREA.  ESLEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S.

ON SAT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WLY WITH ONLY SOME HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS WITH SOME CLOUDS BUT NO PCPN.  A SFC
LEE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY EAST OF THE MTNS WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW.  IN PLACES WITH NO SNOW COVER READINGS WILL BE IN THE 55 TO 60
DEGREE RANGE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS.  OVER THE PLAINS
LINGERING SNOW COVER WILL ALTER HIGHS SOMEWHAT SO WILL KEEP
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WNW.  THE GFS
HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NRN CO LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE MTNS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS NO SUCH
DISTURBANCE AND CONSIDERABLY LESS MOISTURE. NOT SURE WHICH WAY TO
TREND SO WILL JUST MENTION LOW POPS IN THE MTNS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE WITH TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT
WILL SEE INCREASING WIND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NR THE
FOOTHILLS. OVER NERN CO A PACIFIC COOL FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS BY
MIDDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NWLY WITH
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE FOR THE MTNS ALONG WITH
INCREASING LAPSE RATES.  THUS SHOULD SEE A BETTER CHC OF OROGRPAHIC
SNOW.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THE GFS HAS A CDFNT MOVING ACROSS NERN CO
SUN NIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WHILE THE ECMWF HAS NO FNT
ALONG WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE.  INHERITED SOME LOW POPS OVER THE
PLAINS FOR SUN NIGHT AND SEE NO POINT TO REMOVE THEM AT THIS TIME.
AS FOR HIGHS THE ECMWF IS 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER VS THE GFS FOR MON
AFTN ACROSS NERN CO.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S AROUND DENVER WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE PLAINS.

BY TUE INTO THE WED THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS A SURFACE
LEE TROUGH RESIDES EAST OF THE MTNS.  THUS IT LOOKS DRY WITH
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

DRY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. THERE WILL BE
SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING AND THEN TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS



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