Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 312129
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
329 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONVECTION OVER THE FOOTHILLS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE POTENTIALLY
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR OVER THE FRONT RANGE. EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN
INTENSITY BUT IT APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR A WIDESPREAD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD KEEP SOME UPDRAFTS GOING FOR A
WHILE. I DID RAISE POPS FOR THE FRONT RANGE CITIES AND ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON.

BEST UPSTREAM CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE HEADED TOWARD THE WYOMING
BORDER...SO I SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR LATER THIS
EVENING...STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH LESS ON THE PLAINS. I ADDED A BIT MORE BACK TO THE NORTHERN
BORDER ZONES IN CASE THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN NW COLORADO TRACKS
THAT WAY.

WITH LIFT AND HEATING DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD AS
WELL...THOUGH A FEW WEAK SHOWERS IN THE ELEVATED MOIST LAYER COULD
CONTINUE. EXPECT A FAIRLY ROUTINE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN ON
TUESDAY AS THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE SUN AND NOT MUCH DRYING YET.
STILL PRETTY LOW CAPES ON THE PLAINS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS BUT NOT EXPECTING A LOT. COULD BE BETTER
MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN BORDER FOR A BIT STRONGER STORMS...OR THIS
COULD BE ENTIRELY EAST OF US.

ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...AND WARMED LOW
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS A BIT OVER THE STATE. A
LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THE MDLS
GENERATE SOME QPF OVER THE CWA BUT MOST OF IT IS CONFINED TO THE
HIGH COUNTRY. IT WILL BE DRIER OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
ADJACENT PLAINS WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH...WITH A LITTLE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDERS. OVERALL JUST
ISOLD COVERAGE FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE MDLS TRY TO DEVELOP A
DEEPER FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO COLORADO BY SATURDAY. AS
A RESULT...COVERAGE FOR TSTMS IN THE AFTN/EVNG SHOULD INCREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP TO COOL THE
TEMPERATURES A BIT ON SATURDAY...COOLER SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DENVER
AREA THROUGH 00Z. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
THE FRONT OF THE AREA OF STORMS...FOR 30 MINUTES OR LESS. GUSTS TO
40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. AFTER 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



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