Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 270056
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
656 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH
POPS OVER THESE AREAS. AS FAR AS THE FRONT RANGE GOES...JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT. ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH
CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VERY LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
SPREADING OUT ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS
ARE QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND
BRISK SOUTH WINDS. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW TREK ACROSS COLORADO...GENERATING ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN OUT ONTO THE PLAINS.
THE NAM IS MUCH MORE ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER...ESPECIALLY IF RAIN BEGINS
FALLING EARLY IN THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP
THINGS A LITTLE COOLER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WEST OF COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT
...THEN OVER THE WESTERN BORDER ON FRIDAY...THEN OVER THE CWA ON
SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY INTO FRIDAY...THEN NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK
DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY PROGGED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MID DAY
SATURDAY...THEN WEAK UPWARD MOTION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LOOK TO BE A COMBINATION OF NORMAL DRAINAGE
AND DOWNSLOPE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS UPSLOPE PROGGED FRIDAY...
DRAINAGE FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEASTERLIES SATURDAY...THEN MORE
DRAINAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AROUND THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN IT DECREASES FOR THE NEXT FOUR PERIODS. THERE IS
LIMITED CAPE PROGGED THURSDAY EVENING...THEN AGAIN LATE DAY FRIDAY
AND LATE DAY SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE
CWA THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS A BIT OVER THE HIGH COUNTY LATE DAY
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN LESS THERE LATE DAY SATURDAY. FOR POPS WILL GO
WITH 20-40%S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AND 0-20% FOR THE PLAINS
THURSDAY EVENING. FOR LATE DAY FRIDAY AND LATE DAY SATURDAY WILL
GO WITH 10- 20%S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ONLY. FOR TEMPERATURES...
FRIDAY`S HIGHS SHOULD BE 1-3 C HIGHER THAN THURSDAY`S. SATURDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 1-2 C WARMER THAN FRIDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWESTERN UNITES STATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID WESTERN U.S. THERE IS WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
CWA ALL FOUR DAYS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OVER KDEN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE SOUTH PART OF THE AIRPORT AND NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART. WINDS ARE EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME ALL
SOUTHERLY THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD
DISRUPT THE PREVAILING PATTERN. AFTER 06Z...WINDS SHOULD TURN
WESTERLY AND ON THURSDAY BE NORTHERLY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ON THURSDAY...A FEW STORMS COULD
BE MIXED IN. LOWER LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FEET.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER


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