Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 250018
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
618 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 611 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

WINDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS ARE CURRENTLY SUSTAINED AT 10
TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH. THIS WILL DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT HOUR WITH INCREASING RH THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE. THIS IMPROVED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ENOUGH TO LET
THE RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING. A STRONG NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE WITH MOISTURE REDEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SNOW WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SNOW
AMOUNTS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE. ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS...NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL BACK
TO WSWLY. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL PUSH
SOUTH INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS BY 12Z...WITH
NNELY SFC WINDS IN THE MORNING. THE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA AROUND 18Z WITH STRONG MID LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND GOOD INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND 18Z
INDICATE CAPES IN THE 200-400 J/KG RANGE. MODERATE TO STRONG MID
AND UPPER LEVEL QG ASCENT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
12-18Z TIME FRAME...WITH DECREASING QG ASCENT DEVELOPING AFTER
21Z. COULD SEE RAIN/SNOW MIX TURN OVER THE SNOW AS DEEP CONVECTION
DEVELOPS IN THE 15Z-21Z WINDOW. BEST CHC OF SNOW FOR THE I-25
CORRIDOR WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE SO WL MENTION AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW ON THE GRASS THERE. FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...PRIMARILY
ZONE 35...GETS TARGETED WITH SNOWFALL HAS WELL BY THE HIGH RES
MODELS...SO WILL MENTION SOME ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 INCHES THERE.
WL GO A LITTLE LOWER THE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
AFTN. CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE TOWARDS 00Z. BEST CHC OF
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE ALONG THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CONSENSUS OF NWP IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS
EXITING THE CWA TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD 00Z THU
WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE AREA NW TO
SE. SIMULTANEOUSLY...SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK AROUND TO THE N/NW
AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE S TEXAS PANHANDLE BEGINS TO PULL
EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN OUT OF THE NRN UT AREA. STILL
MAINTAIN SOME WANING SFC INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS NEAR THE
DIVIDE AND WITH CROSS SECTIONS STILL DEPICTING A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE LOW/MID CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA.
CONVECTIVE MOTION WOULD ATTEMPT TO CARRY THIS PRECIP SE-WARD...BUT
INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MUCH ALL BUT GONE BY 00Z THU EAST OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND THUS NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT FAR EAST
OUT OF THE HILLS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FRONT
RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR BY 00Z THU AND THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA AS WELL
WITH AFOREMENTIONED N-NNW WINDS...WITH ONLY SILENT POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE PLAINS EAST OF DIA/GREELEY AND NORTH OF I-70. WBZ HEIGHTS
OF 300FT- 700FT AGL INDICATE THAT WHATEVER PRECIP DOES FALL...EVEN
ON THE PLAINS...SHOULD FALL AS ALL SNOW BY THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED HOWEVER ON THE PLAINS. THE
MOUNTAINS MAY SEE ANOTHER HALF INCH TO INCH OF SNOW DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ON THE HIGHER PEAKS...AND WITH SBCAPE VALUES STILL
PROGGED AROUND 200- 250J/KG IT STILL WOULD BE POSSIBLE TO SEE A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR OR TWO AROUND 00Z-
01Z THU. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL SEE SKIES
GRADUALLY SCATTERING ACROSS THE PLAINS/PALMER DIVIDE...WITH SOME
CLOUDS HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS. EARLY MORNING TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S FOR THE DENVER METRO STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANGES FROM PREV FCST.

THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. STILL
SEEING GENERAL SUBSIDENCE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS. ANOTHER WEAK RIPPLE ALOFT WILL MOVE S/SE THROUGH THE MEAN
FLOW ALOFT. THE OP GFS IS MUCH FURTHER WEST BRINGING THIS
DISTURBANCE PRETTY MUCH OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH ITS ATTENDANT
CLOUDINESS, ETC AND A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE CWA.
PREPONDERANCE OF NWP HOWEVER KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER
NORTHEAST...INCLUDING THE GFS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL REMOVE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THURSDAY FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT
PLAINS BUT LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ROUGHLY EASTERN WELD
COUNTY/NORTHERN WASH COUNTY AND POINTS EAST AND NORTH OF THERE.
ALSO LOWERED SKY COVER A BIT AS WELL TO REFLECT A PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY IN THOSE SAME AREAS WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE REMOVED. AT
THIS POINT STILL DO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NE CORNER
OF THE CWA BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WILL KEEP SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS ON THE HIGHER PEAKS
WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PERHAPS
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT
TO A FEW TENTHS TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH OR SO. MAX TEMPS IN THE
URBAN CORRIDOR IN THE LOW/MID 50S LOOK GOOD. SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY...ALBEIT A BIT BREEZY OVER THE NE PLAINS AND
MOUNTAINS...AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION. EXPECT GENERALLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR THE LOWER
PLAINS AREAS INCLUDING THE DENVER AREA.

EVEN WARMER TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER
UTAH/IDAHO...AS A GENERAL NW FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES. MAX TEMPS SAT
SHOULD BE ROUGHLY 7-10F WARMER VERSUS FRIDAY/S READINGS...INTO THE
MID 70S GENERALLY FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. DEPENDING ON
TEMPS AND WINDS SPEEDS...COULD FEASIBLY SEE SOME ENHANCED FIRE WX
CONCERNS. BY SUNDAY A BIT MORE MOISTURE MAY MAKE IT INTO THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW THERE.
OTHERWISE...A FRONT MAY BACK INTO NERN CO SUNDAY LOWERING MAX TEMPS
JUST A BIT...YET STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S FOR THE PLAINS AREAS. MODELS STILL DIFFER COME MONDAY AND
TUESDAY REGARDING A POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND
THUS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF CWA MON. THIS APPEARS WEAK HOWEVER SHOULD IT MATERIALIZE AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY DRY WX THOSE DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. NWLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION TO W/SWLY THIS EVENING. AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH N/NELY SFC
WINDS THROUGH 20Z. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE...WITH ILS CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE 12-15Z WINDOW...THEN
MVFR CIGS/VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPS AT
KDEN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SNOW TO DEVELOP AT TIMES AT
KBJC/KAPA IF ANY THUNDERSNOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN 16Z-21Z PRIMARILY.
COULD SEE BRIEF IFR IF THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS. WL NOT MENTION
THUNDER IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE ISOLATED COVERAGE.
SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 611 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND RH OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND INTO
THE EVENING ALLOWED FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...GUILLOT
AVIATION...COOPER
FIRE WEATHER...BOWEN



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