Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 142146
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
246 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2014

MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM IS SPILLING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE STATE BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO THE MOUNTAINS. SOME
LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
DIVIDE BUT THE REGION WILL STAY MOSTLY DRY. WARM ADVECTION OVER
THE PLAINS AIDED IN CLEARING AND DRYING OUT INCREASING
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER DENVER BACK TO ABOVE
FREEZING WHILE THE PLAINS REMAIN COOLER DUE TO LACK OF MIXING TO
PUSH THE ARCTIC AIR OUT. CEILINGS WILL START TO MOVE BACK INTO
THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS PREFRONTAL MOISTURE
MAKES ITS WAY INTO NE COLORADO.

THE JET WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN COLORADO AS THE TROUGH
DROPS DOWN INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO MOVE IN AROUND 5 AM TOMORROW WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF IT. LIFT FROM THE JET AS WELL AS OROGRAPHICS
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR THE MOUNTAINS TO GET SOME
DECENT SNOW AMOUNTS. THERE IS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR
5 TO 10 INCHES AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES
OVER WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY.

FOR THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR SNOW FALL WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DELAYED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING POSSIBLE SNOW AMOUNTS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH GUSTING UP
TO 50 WILL BRING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TO MOUNTAIN
PASSES...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR MOUNTAIN TRAVELERS THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO TEENS ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING
WITH HIGHS TOMORROW NOT MAKING IT ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW MORNING ON THE PLAINS AND COOL THROUGH THE
DAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. SNOW IS FORECASTED TO START
AROUND LATE TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN CO BORDER AND INTO
REST OF THE PLAINS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHTER WITH HALF AN INCH TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. SNOW WILL DISSIPATE FROM THE NORTH TO
THE SOUTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...SNOW MAY VERY WELL
LINGER IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN THE MOUNTAINS AS NEXT WAVE DROPPING
INTO THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN COLORADO. AS A
RESULT...WILL HAVE THE ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA REMAIN IN EFFECT TIL
MIDNIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ON THE PALMER DIVIDE
AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
OR BELOW ZERO OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE COLD SOURCE
REGION TEMPS AT PRESENT...SOME FRESH SNOW...AND CLEARING LATE.

ON SUNDAY...DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLOW TO REBOUND WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND VERY COLD START TO
THE DAY SO MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 20S WITH
TEENS/LOWER 20S MOUNTAINS.

FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT/SURGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS KEEPING TEMPERATURES QUITE COLD. TUESDAY SHOULD FINALLY SEE
A GRADUAL WARMUP SO PRESENT FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE WITH A FEW
SPOTS REACHING THE 40S ON THE PLAINS. HOWEVER COLD START TO THE
DAY AND INVERSIONS MAY MEAN COLDER READINGS HOLD IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FURTHER MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND LEE TROFING EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT...WE SHOULD REACH NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THEN WHICH MEANS A
FEW 50S POSSIBLE. A WEAK WAVE MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2014

MOISTURE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING BKN TO OVC SKIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME LOWERED
VISIBILITIES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING POSSIBLY DUE TO INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW COMBINED WITH COOLER AIR
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED BEFORE CLINGS LOWER AND
WINDS PICK UP FROM THE FRONT MOVING IN BY 5 AM. CURRENT TRENDS
SHOW WINDS PICKING UP FROM 12 TO 14Z WITH GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH.
SNOW IS FORECASTED TO START BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING TO POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COZ034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST
SATURDAY FOR COZ031-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...BOWEN



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