Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 241003
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
403 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE CNTRL MTNS WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA BY MID MORNING.  DRIER AIR ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE WILL DVLP
BEHIND THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR DECREASING SNOW IN THE MTNS WITH
SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS.  FOR THIS AFTN OUTSIDE OF A
CHC OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IT WILL BE DRY.  WINDS
TODAY WILL BE GUSTY HOWEVER SPEEDS WILL STAY BLO HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

FOR TONIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE NRN MTNS.  IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME MID LVL
ASCENT AS WELL ALONG WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES.  THUS SHOULD SEE SNOW
INCREASE IN THE MTNS BY MIDNIGHT.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IT SHOULD BE
DRY MOST OF THE NIGHT HOWEVER TOWARDS MORNING THERE COULD BE A
SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS NR THE WY BORDER AS A CDFNT MOVES INTO
NERN CO.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

MODELS HAVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT DECREASES
SOMEWHAT THURSDAY NIGHT BUT KEEPS THE SAME DIRECTION AS AN UPPER
RIDGE GETS INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN BY 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS SHOW SOME UPWARD MOTION
FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN DOWNWARD ENERGY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BRINGS IN A
NEW COOLER AIRMASS WITH A SURGE OF UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. THE NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HANGS ON UNTIL
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS KICK IN
OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY FEATURES NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT PROGGED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM HAS A TAD OF CAPE
PROGGED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN NOTHING ELSE FOR THE OTHER
PERIODS. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW A BIT OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THE EVENING. THERE ISN`T MUCH
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH A BIT LATE DAY THURSDAY. BEST POPS
SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY...EVEN SOME "LIKELY"S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. WILL NEED SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN FOR THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS
WILL NOT WARRANT ANY HIGHLIGHTS. FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S
HIGHS ARE DOWN 5-8 C FROM TODAY`S EXPECTED HIGHS. THURSDAY`S
READINGS WILL BE UP 2-5 C FROM WEDNESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAY`S
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST OF
COLORADO THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
CWA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NORMALS.
THERE IS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A BIT
OF A MOISTURE INCREASE. MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WNW WINDS. WINDS COULD SUBSIDE BY 12Z
AND BECOME MORE WSW BEFORE BECOMING MORE WNW BY 15Z. WILL KEEP
SUSTAINED WINDS AFTER 15Z IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH A GEW
GUSTS TO 35 MPH THRU 21Z. AFTER 21Z WINDS SHOULD MAY DECREASE SOME
WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. FOR
THIS EVENING WINDS SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO MORE WSW BY 03Z. A
CDFNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z ON WED. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FNT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH TODAY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FROM
THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR COZ215-216-238>251.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK
FIRE WEATHER...RPK


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