000
FXUS65 KBOU 230912
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
312 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND COOLER
AIR INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. EXPECT
THE CLOUDS EAST OF DENVER AREA TO HANG ON UNTIL EARLY AFTER AND SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT BREAK OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS ALL DAY OVER FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS COOLER AIR WILL CREATE A STRONG CAP. THIS CAP
PLUS SUBSIDENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE STATE WILL
MAKE IT VERY HARD FOR CONVECTION TO FORM TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS TODAY. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TODAY OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS WILL BE ABOVE THE INVERSION...SO
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF FORMING. MOST MODELS SHOW A LITTLE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WILL HAVE 20-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY CARRY THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
AND WILL HAVE 10 POPS IN THE FORECAST.

LOW LEVEL WINDS START TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS
WILL SCOUR OUT THE MOIST AIRMASS. THE MOISTURE SHOULD HANG ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT PLANNED AT THIS TIME. ON
FRIDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWFA AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE
MORNING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE BEST CHC OF TSTMS IN THE AFTN
AND EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL THETA E BOUNDARY. BY THE
AFTN THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM AROUND STERLING TO
AKRON TO LIMON. FCST CAPES FM THE NAM12 FCST SOUNDINGS 1500-2000
J/KG WITH ENOUGH 0-3 KM HELICITIES NEAR 100 M2/S2 TO PRODUCE A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER WEST...DRIER LOW LEVELS WITH JUST A
FEW HIGH BASED TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...THE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHC OF ANY TSTMS THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. A
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK BUT THE
MDLS OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. THERE MAY BE A SLGTLY BETTER
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS
BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL HOWEVER WILL KEEP
THE FCST DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 18Z. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1000 TO 2500 FEET. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET...IF THIS OCCUR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY
WILL OCCUR. JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY
23-03Z. MAY BE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY 12Z FRIDAY. EAST WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE STORMS ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP. SO THE STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED. THERE IS DECENT MOISTURE AROUND SO A PERIOD OF BRIEF
HEAVY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF ONE
INCH IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...MEIER