Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FGUS75 KBOU 161745
ESFBOU
COC001-005-013-014-019-031-035-039-047-049-057-059-069-073-075-087-
093-095-115-117-121-123-010000-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1045 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2015

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST COLORADO AS OF JANUARY 2015.

THE WATER YEAR BEGAN WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILED OVER THE REGION. BY
THE END OF OCTOBER 2014 THE MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK WAS ONLY 21 PERCENT OF
NORMAL IN THE SOUTH PLATTE AND UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASINS. DURING
NOVEMBER AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BECAME ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IMPACTING THE NORTHERN COLORADO
MOUNTAINS. BY NOVEMBER 27TH THE SNOWPACK IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO MOUNTAINS CLIMBED TO AROUND 118 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE
WEATHER WAS DRY AND MILD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS AND THE SNOWPACK
FELL TO AROUND 82 PERCENT OF NORMAL ON DECEMBER 13TH. THE WEATHER
TURNED WETTER AND MUCH COLDER THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER AS SEVERAL
STORM SYSTEMS AND ARCTIC COLD FRONTS MOVED ACROSS THE STATE. BY
JANUARY 1ST 2015 THE SNOWPACK HAD CLIMBED TO 114 PERCENT OF NORMAL
IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN...112 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE
SOUTH PLATTE BASIN AND 101 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE NORTH PLATTE
BASIN.

COMBINED RESERVOIR STORAGE IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. STORAGE IN THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN WAS 124
PERCENT OF AVERAGE AT THE BEGINNING OF JANUARY. THIS WAS EVEN HIGHER
THAN (114 PERCENT OF) LAST YEAR`S STORAGE IN THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN.
LAST YEAR`S STORAGE AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WERE IMPACTED
CONSIDERABLY BY THE SEPTEMBER 2013 FLOODS. STORAGE IN THE UPPER
COLORADO RIVER BASIN ON JANUARY 1ST WAS 109 PERCENT OF AVERAGE AND
98 PERCENT OF LAST YEAR`S STORAGE.

THE 2015 SPRING AND SUMMER RUNOFF POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT IS NEAR
NORMAL AT THIS TIME. MOST APRIL THROUGH JULY STREAMFLOW FORECASTS IN
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO RANGE FROM 90 TO 115 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IT IS VERY EARLY IN THE SNOW ACCUMULATION
SEASON AND CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE BEFORE THE RUNOFF BEGINS.

FOLLOWING ARE THE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS:

                              MOST PROBABLY FORECAST
                                      VOLUME      PERCENT
STREAM AND STATION         PERIOD     1000 AF      OF AVG
__________________         ______     _______     _______
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
 ANTERO RESERVOIR INFLOW   APR-JUL      15.0       103
 SPINNEY MTN RES INFLOW    APR-JUL      50         104
 11-MILE CANYON RES INFLOW APR-JUL      53         106
 CHEESMAN LAKE INFLOW      APR-JUL     102         102
 SOUTH PLATTE              APR-JUL     182         101

BEAR CREEK
 EVERGREEN ABV             APR-JUL      17.2       105
 MORRISON                  APR-JUL      19.6        89

CLEAR CREEK
 GOLDEN                    APR-JUL     112         107

ST VRAIN CREEK
 LYONS                     APR-JUL      86          98

BOULDER CREEK
 ORODELL                   APR-JUL      54         100

SOUTH BOULDER CREEK
 ELDORADO SPRINGS          APR-JUL      39         100

BIG THOMPSON RIVER
 CANYON MOUTH              APR-JUL      87          97

CACHE LA POUDRE
 CANYON MOUTH              APR-JUL     220          98

NORTH PLATTE RIVER
 NORTHGATE                 APR-JUL     210          93

COLORADO RIVER
 LAKE GRANBY               APR-JUL     240         109

WILLOW CREEK
 WILLOW CREEK RES          APR-JUL      49         104

FRASER RIVER
 WINTER PARK               APR-JUL      21         108

WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
 WILLIAMS FORK RES         APR-JUL     105         109

BLUE RIVER
 DILLON RES                APR-JUL     193         118
 GREEN MTN RES             APR-JUL     325         118

MUDDY CREEK
 WOLFORD MTN RES BLW       APR-JUL      60         111

COLORADO RIVER
 KREMMLING                 APR-JUL     975         113

THESE FORECASTS REFLECT NATURAL FLOW ONLY.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE INFORMATION (WEB ADDRESSES ARE IN LOWER CASE):
-VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOU FOR MORE LOCAL
WEATHER...CLIMATE AND STREAM INFORMATION.
-LONG RANGE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/.
-SNOWPACK AND RESERVOIR DATA ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NATURAL RESOURCES
CONSERVATIONS SERVICE AT HTTP://WWW.CO.NRCS.USDA.GOV/SNOW/.
-THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML.

$$
TH



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