Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FGUS75 KBOU 082307
ESFBOU
COC001-005-013-014-019-031-035-039-047-049-057-059-069-073-075-087-
093-095-115-117-121-123-250000-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
507 PM MDT WED APR 8 2015

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE/NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE
STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO AS OF
APRIL 2015.

MARCH IS TRADITIONALLY THE SNOWIEST MONTH OF THE YEAR FOR MANY
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK HAS HELD STEADY OR
DECLINED DURING THE PAST MONTH. BASIN SNOWPACK WAS 84 PERCENT OF
NORMAL IN THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN...71 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE NORTH
PLATTE BASIN AND ONLY 68 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER COLORADO
RIVER BASIN ON APRIL 8TH. SUB-BASIN SNOWPACK ON APRIL 1ST RANGED
FROM 71 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE WILLOW CREEK BASIN IN GRAND COUNTY
TO 98 PERCENT OF AVERAGE IN THE BLUE RIVER BASIN IN SUMMIT COUNTY
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HISTORICALLY NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
HAS ACCUMULATED OVER 90 PERCENT OF ITS SNOWPACK BY THE SECOND WEEK
OF APRIL.

RESERVOIR STORAGE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE. COMBINED STORAGE WAS 114
PERCENT OF AVERAGE IN THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN AND 124 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN AT THE END OF MARCH.
STORAGE WAS 91 PERCENT OF CAPACITY IN THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN AND 78
PERCENT OF CAPACITY IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN.

MANY STREAMS ARE RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE DESPITE THE STAGNANT MOUNTAIN
SNOWPACK CONDITIONS. THIS IS DUE TO EARLY SNOWPACK MELT AND RUNOFF
AS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST. WITH THE LACK OF
PRECIPITATION THIS SPRING AND THE EARLY MELTOUT...APRIL THROUGH JULY
STREAMFLOW FORECASTS ARE BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE. THE NORTH PLATTE
RIVER NEAR NORTHGATE IS FORECAST TO HAVE ONLY HALF ITS AVERAGE
STREAM VOLUMES THIS SPRING AND SUMMER. IN CONTRAST...THE BLUE RIVER
IS EXPECTED TO SEE AVERAGE VOLUMES.

FOLLOWING ARE THE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS:

                              MOST PROBABLE FORECAST
                                      VOLUME      PERCENT
STREAM AND STATION         PERIOD     1000 AF      OF AVG
__________________         ______     _______     _______
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
 ANTERO RESERVOIR INFLOW   APR-JUL      11.2        77
 SPINNEY MTN RES INFLOW    APR-JUL      41          85
 11-MILE CANYON RES INFLOW APR-JUL      43          86
 CHEESMAN LAKE INFLOW      APR-JUL      80          80
 SOUTH PLATTE              APR-JUL     131          73

BEAR CREEK
 EVERGREEN ABV             APR-JUL      12.3        75

CLEAR CREEK
 GOLDEN                    APR-JUL      87          83

ST VRAIN CREEK
 LYONS                     APR-JUL      76          86

BOULDER CREEK
 ORODELL                   APR-JUL      50          93

SOUTH BOULDER CREEK
 ELDORADO SPRINGS          APR-JUL      33          85

BIG THOMPSON RIVER
 CANYON MOUTH              APR-JUL      75          83

CACHE LA POUDRE
 CANYON MOUTH              APR-JUL     182          81

NORTH PLATTE RIVER
 NORTHGATE                 APR-JUL     110          49

COLORADO RIVER
 LAKE GRANBY               APR-JUL     205          93

WILLOW CREEK
 WILLOW CREEK RES          APR-JUL      39          83

FRASER RIVER
 WINTER PARK               APR-JUL      18.0        93

WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
 WILLIAMS FORK RES         APR-JUL      90          94

BLUE RIVER
 DILLON RES                APR-JUL     170         104
 GREEN MTN RES             APR-JUL     275         100

MUDDY CREEK
 WOLFORD MTN RES BLW       APR-JUL      40          74

COLORADO RIVER
 KREMMLING                 APR-JUL     800          93

THESE FORECASTS REFLECT NATURAL FLOW ONLY.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE INFORMATION (WEB ADDRESSES ARE IN LOWER CASE):
-VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOU FOR MORE LOCAL
WEATHER...CLIMATE AND STREAM INFORMATION.
-LONG RANGE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/.
-SNOWPACK AND RESERVOIR DATA ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NATURAL RESOURCES
CONSERVATIONS SERVICE AT HTTP://WWW.CO.NRCS.USDA.GOV/SNOW/.
-THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML.

$$
TH



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