Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FGUS75 KBOU 151901
ESFBOU
COC001-005-013-014-019-031-035-039-047-049-057-059-069-073-075-087-
093-095-115-117-121-123-300000-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
100 PM MDT THU MAY 15 2014

UPDATED STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO AS OF MAY 1ST 2014.

PERCENT OF AVERAGE SNOWPACK IN THE NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO HIGH
COUNTRY REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY THE FIRST HALF OF APRIL. IT THEN
BEGAN TO DECLINE FROM LATE APRIL INTO EARLY MAY. A WINTER STORM FROM
MAY 10TH THROUGH MAY 12TH BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES SLOWING THE
SNOWMELT RUNOFF WHILE THE SNOWPACK JUMPED BACK UP. 1 TO 2 FEET OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW FELL IN MANY AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE IN NORTHERN COLORADO WITH THIS STORM.

BY MAY 15TH THE BASIN SNOWPACK HAD RISEN TO 151 TO 153 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...RESPECTIVELY IN THE NORTH AND SOUTH PLATTE BASINS EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND 144 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER
COLORADO RIVER BASIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

COMBINED RESERVOIR STORAGE WAS 110 PERCENT OF AVERAGE IN THE SOUTH
PLATTE BASIN AND 94 PERCENT OF AVERAGE IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER
BASIN AT THE END OF APRIL. THE STORAGE WAS AROUND 90 PERCENT OF
CAPACITY IN THE SOUTH PLATTE BASIN AND 57 PERCENT OF CAPACITY IN THE
UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN.

FOLLOWING ARE THE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS:

                                    MOST PROBABLY FORECAST
                                      VOLUME      PERCENT
STREAM AND STATION         PERIOD     1000 AF      OF AVG
__________________         ______     _______     _______
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
 ANTERO RESERVOIR INFLOW   MAY-JUL      14.5       111
 SPINNEY MTN RES INFLOW    MAY-JUL      51         116
 11-MILE CANYON RES INFLOW MAY-JUL      52         116
 CHEESMAN LAKE INFLOW      MAY-JUL      95         110
 SOUTH PLATTE              MAY-JUL     167         107

BEAR CREEK
 EVERGREEN ABV             MAY-JUL      12.8        90

CLEAR CREEK
 GOLDEN                    MAY-JUL     118         118

ST VRAIN CREEK
 LYONS                     MAY-JUL      87         109

BOULDER CREEK
 ORODELL                   MAY-JUL      60         118

SOUTH BOULDER CREEK
 ELDORADO SPRINGS          MAY-JUL      41         117

BIG THOMPSON RIVER
 CANYON MOUTH              MAY-JUL      98         115

CACHE LA POUDRE
 CANYON MOUTH              MAY-JUL     250         119

NORTH PLATTE RIVER
 NORTHGATE                 MAY-JUL     260         139

COLORADO RIVER
 LAKE GRANBY               MAY-JUL     300         146

WILLOW CREEK
 WILLOW CREEK RES          MAY-JUL      59         137

FRASER RIVER
 WINTER PARK               MAY-JUL      27         145

WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
 WILLIAMS FORK RES         MAY-JUL     124         138

BLUE RIVER
 DILLON RES                MAY-JUL     230         150
 GREEN MTN RES             MAY-JUL     375         147

MUDDY CREEK
 WOLFORD MTN RES BLW       MAY-JUL      76         165

COLORADO RIVER
 KREMMLING                 MAY-JUL     1160        148

THESE FORECASTS REFLECT NATURAL FLOW ONLY.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE INFORMATION (WEB ADDRESSES ARE IN LOWER CASE):
-VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOU FOR MORE LOCAL
WEATHER...CLIMATE AND STREAM INFORMATION.
-LONG RANGE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/.
-SNOWPACK AND RESERVOIR DATA ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NATURAL RESOURCES
CONSERVATIONS SERVICE AT HTTP://WWW.CO.NRCS.USDA.GOV/SNOW/.
-THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML.

$$
TH



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