Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FGUS75 KBOU 112234

Water Supply Outlook
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
333 PM MST Wed Jan 11 2017

...Water Supply Outlook for north central and northeast Colorado as
of January 2017...

The water year began with one of the lowest snowpacks in the past 40
years. The mountain snowpack was only 4 percent of normal in the
upper Colorado River Basin and 12 percent of normal in the North and
South Platte Basins by November 15th. A few days later high pressure
finally gave way to northwest flow aloft. This allowed the storm
track to move south into Colorado. Brian Domonkos with the Natural
Resources Conservation Service stated "according to the SNOTEL data,
from November 17th through January 1st, 2017 snowpack in the
mountains grew at the fastest rate dating back to 1986, with a
statewide gain of 7.4 inches of snow water equivalent".

The current water supply forecasts use data as of January 1st. At
that time the north central Colorado basin snowpack was 117 percent
of normal west of the Continental Divide and around 105 percent of
normal east of the divide. However...the snowpack has continued to
climb to 150 to 155 percent of normal in the South Platte and upper
Colorado River Basins...and 136 percent of normal in the North
Platte Basin on January 11th.

Upper Colorado River and South Platte basin reservoir storage remains
in good shape at around 105 percent of average. Soil moisture has
also shown a marked improvement over what was seen last fall.

                               Most Probably Forecast
                                      Volume      Percent
Stream and Station         Period     1000 AF      of Avg
__________________         ______     _______     _______
South Platte River
 Antero Reservoir inflow   Apr-Sep      16          99
 Spinney Mtn Res inflow    Apr-Sep      46          77
 11-Mile Canyon Res inflow Apr-Sep      49          75
 Cheesman Lake inflow      Apr-Sep      89          72
 South Platte              Apr-Sep     164          79

Bear Creek
 Morrison                  Apr-Sep      11          55

Clear Creek
 Golden                    Apr-Sep      96          87

Saint Vrain Creek
 Lyons                     Apr-Sep      85          89

Boulder Creek
 Orodell                   Apr-Sep      45          83

South Boulder Creek
 Eldorado Springs          Apr-Sep      31          83

Cache La Poudre River
 Canyon Mouth              Apr-Sep     208         101

North Platte River
 Northgate                 Apr-Sep     296         130

Colorado River
 Granby                    Apr-Jul     215          98

Willow Creek
 Willow Creek Res          Apr-Jul      50         106

Fraser River
 Winter Park               Apr-Jul      20         103

Williams Fork River
 Williams Fork Reservoir   Apr-Jul      95          99

Blue River
 Dillon Res                Apr-Jul     155          95
 Green Mtn Res             Apr-Jul     260          95

Muddy Creek
 Wolford Mtn Res Blw       Apr-Jul      52          96

Colorado River
 Kremmling                 Apr-Jul     830          97

These forecasts reflect natural flow only. Actual observed flow will
likely be affected by upstream water management.

Additional supportive information
- Visit our website at weather.gov/bou for additional local
weather...climate and stream information.
- Long range precipitation and temperature outlooks are available at
- Snowpack and reservoir data are available from the Natural
Resources Conservation Service at www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/.
- The U.S. Drought Monitor is available at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.


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