Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
000
FGUS75 KBOU 271407
ESFBOU
COC001-031-035-057-059-069-075-087-115-123-312359-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Denver CO
806 AM MDT Wed Mar 27 2024
In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stage
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is greater than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/30/2024 - 09/30/2024
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:South Platte River
South Platte 7.0 8.5 9.5 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Denver 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Henderson 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Fort Lupton 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 9 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Kersey 10.0 11.5 13.5 : 23 16 13 8 6 <5
Weldona 10.0 11.0 12.0 : 14 9 11 8 9 6
Fort Morgan 17.5 19.5 21.5 : 13 13 11 10 10 7
Balzac 10.0 11.0 12.5 : 13 12 12 11 11 9
Atwood 11.5 13.0 14.5 : 12 11 11 10 6 <5
Julesburg 10.0 11.0 12.5 : 11 10 6 <5 <5 <5
:Plum Creek
Sedalia 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 11 <5 5 <5 <5 <5
:Bear Creek
Morrison 9.0 10.0 10.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Sheridan 8.0 10.0 10.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Clear Creek
Golden 8.5 9.5 10.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Derby 10.5 11.5 12.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:N Fk Big Thompson River
Drake 5.5 6.0 7.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cache la Poudre River
Fort Collins 9NW 7.5 9.0 10.5 : 12 10 6 6 <5 <5
Fort Collins 10.5 11.5 13.0 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Greeley 8.0 9.5 10.5 : 16 17 12 12 6 7
:North Platte River
Northgate 8.0 9.5 11.0 : 7 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/30/2024 - 09/30/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:South Platte River
South Platte 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.6 5.0 5.9 6.9
Denver 5.1 5.4 5.8 6.2 6.8 8.2 8.4
Henderson 5.8 6.1 6.6 7.2 7.9 9.0 9.5
Fort Lupton 5.9 6.1 6.9 8.1 9.2 10.8 12.1
Kersey 5.0 5.1 6.8 7.8 9.6 12.5 13.9
Weldona 4.2 4.2 5.7 6.6 8.3 11.5 14.4
Fort Morgan 11.3 11.3 12.4 13.5 16.0 21.2 23.8
Balzac 4.5 4.5 5.7 6.8 8.5 13.1 14.3
Atwood 5.3 5.3 6.5 7.7 9.2 13.7 14.9
Julesburg 6.8 6.8 7.5 8.1 8.6 10.5 11.2
:Plum Creek
Sedalia 5.5 5.5 5.5 6.2 6.7 8.4 9.9
:Bear Creek
Morrison 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.4 7.6 7.7
Sheridan 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.8 6.0
:Clear Creek
Golden 5.1 5.3 5.8 6.0 6.5 7.1 7.3
Derby 5.1 5.3 5.5 6.3 6.8 7.5 7.8
:N Fk Big Thompson River
Drake 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.7
:Cache la Poudre River
Fort Collins 9NW 4.3 4.4 5.1 5.5 6.3 8.2 9.6
Fort Collins 2.6 2.8 4.1 4.9 6.1 9.2 10.7
Greeley 2.7 2.7 4.0 5.7 7.3 10.1 12.1
:North Platte River
Northgate 4.5 4.9 5.7 6.4 7.0 7.8 8.4
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for
the valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/30/2024 - 09/30/2024
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:South Platte River
South Platte 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
Denver 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1
Henderson 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4
Fort Lupton 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8
Kersey 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0
Weldona 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1
Fort Morgan 9.2 9.0 8.7 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.4
Balzac 2.6 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6
Atwood 3.3 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.6
Julesburg 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
:Plum Creek
Sedalia 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6
:Bear Creek
Morrison 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.5
Sheridan 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.0
:Clear Creek
Golden 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4
Derby 2.8 2.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
:N Fk Big Thompson River
Drake 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
:Cache la Poudre River
Fort Collins 9NW 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7
Fort Collins 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Greeley 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
:North Platte River
Northgate 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range
of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range
planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic
forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/bou for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued by the end of April.
$$
- National Weather Service
- Denver/Boulder, CO Weather Forecast Office
- 325 Broadway
- Boulder, CO 80305-3328
- 303-494-3210 for a recording call 303-494-4221
- Page Author: BOU Webmaster
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- Page last modified: Sep 19th, 2023 19:10 UTC