Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
UXUS97 KBOU 021319
SRGBOU

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
0619 MST Tuesday, February 2, 2016

This forecast is for Tuesday, February 2, 2016:

If the trigger temperature of 26.6 F/-3.0 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 0 ft/min (0.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 9007 ft MSL (3722 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 26.0 F/-3.8 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1415 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. None
Thermal soaring outlook for Wednesday 02/03.... Poor

Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1700 MST)......... No change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... 16350 ft MSL (11065 ft AGL)
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1700 MST)................ Neither
Potential height of wave....................... 16842 ft MSL (11557 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Wednesday 02/03....... Poor

Remarks... Deep upper low spinning over southwest kansas early this morning will
           track northeast over eastern nebraska by late this afternoon.

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:06:43 / 17:18:37 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 11 min 55 sec (611 min 55 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:13:02 MST... 33.47 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 02/02/2016 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 8539 ft MSL (3254 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 8699 ft MSL (3414 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +12.0
K index......................... +3.3

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -51.0 -59.8   220   51   26   6.1   3.3  117.3 243.2    68.7      M    M
 45000  -45.8 -50.4   230   46   24   5.2   2.8  101.2 214.2    63.5      M    M
 40000  -42.6 -44.7   230   34   18  -8.2  -4.5   82.0 179.6    55.4      M    M
 38000  -43.7 -46.7   235   36   19   3.4   1.9   71.4 160.5    49.8      M    M
 36000  -44.7 -48.5   245   21   11   0.0   0.0   61.3 142.3    44.1      M    M
 34000  -44.7 -48.5   225   26   13  -0.6  -0.3   52.8 127.0    39.3      M    M
 32000  -47.0 -52.6   235   18    9  -3.2  -1.7   41.3 106.4    32.1      M    M
 30000  -50.5 -58.9   130    9    5  -2.3  -1.3   28.6  83.4    23.6      M    M
 29000  -49.4 -56.9   145   16    8   5.1   2.8   25.0  77.1    21.3      M    M
 28000  -47.9 -54.2   135   20   10   6.6   3.6   23.1  73.7    20.1      M    M
 27000  -45.4 -49.7   130   23   12   5.9   3.3   22.7  72.8    20.0      M    M
 26000  -44.9 -48.8   115   30   15   7.0   3.8   19.4  67.0    17.8      M    M
 25000  -43.2 -45.8   115   46   24   5.1   2.8   17.9  64.2    16.8      M    M
 24000  -40.9 -41.6   115   53   27   9.7   5.3   17.2  62.9    16.4      M    M
 23000  -39.5 -39.1   115   37   19   2.7   1.5   15.3  59.5    15.0      M    M
 22000  -38.0 -36.4   115   25   13   7.9   4.3   13.5  56.3    13.8      M    M
 21000  -35.7 -32.3   110   13    7   7.7   4.3   12.8  55.0    13.3      M    M
 20000  -33.4 -28.1   055    2    1   7.8   4.3   12.2  53.9    13.0      M    M
 19500  -32.2 -26.0   360    4    2   7.8   4.3   11.8  53.2    12.7      M    M
 19000  -31.1 -24.0   350    7    4   7.8   4.3   11.4  52.5    12.5      M    M
 18500  -29.9 -21.8   345   10    5   7.6   4.2   11.0  51.9    12.2      M    M
 18000  -28.8 -19.8   340   14    7   5.7   3.2   10.7  51.3    12.0      M    M
 17500  -28.2 -18.8   360   13    7   4.8   2.6    9.6  49.3    11.2      M    M
 17000  -27.4 -17.3   020   16    8   5.6   3.1    9.0  48.1    10.6      M    M
 16500  -26.5 -15.7   030   23   12   3.8   2.1    8.3  46.9    10.1      M    M
 16000  -26.2 -15.2   035   30   16   2.2   1.2    6.9  44.5     9.0      M    M
 15500  -25.9 -14.6   035   31   16   3.6   2.0    5.6  42.1     7.8      M    M
 15000  -25.0 -13.0   035   30   16   7.5   4.1    5.1  41.1     7.4      M    M
 14500  -23.4 -10.1   035   29   15   3.5   1.9    4.3  39.8     6.8      M    M
 14000  -23.2  -9.8   030   26   13   2.0   1.1    3.1  37.5     5.7      M    M
 13500  -22.9  -9.2   005   20   10   1.4   0.8    1.8  35.2     4.5      M    M
 13000  -22.3  -8.1   335   19   10   7.0   3.9    0.8  33.5     3.7      M    M
 12500  -21.3  -6.3   340   20   10   6.8   3.7    0.4  32.7     3.3      M    M
 12000  -20.2  -4.4   340   20   10   6.8   3.7   -0.1  31.8     2.8      M    M
 11500  -19.2  -2.6   335   18    9   6.8   3.7   -0.6  31.0     2.4      M    M
 11000  -18.2  -0.8   340   17    9   6.8   3.7   -1.0  30.2     2.0      M    M
 10500  -17.2   1.0   005   14    7   6.8   3.8   -1.5  29.3     1.5      M    M
 10250  -16.7   1.9   020   14    7   6.8   3.8   -1.7  28.9     1.3      M    M
 10000  -16.2   2.8   030   15    8   6.8   3.8   -2.0  28.4     1.1      M    M
  9750  -15.7   3.7   030   15    8   6.8   3.8   -2.2  28.0     0.8      M    M
  9500  -15.2   4.6   030   16    8   5.9   3.3   -2.5  27.5     0.6      M    M
  9250  -14.8   5.4   030   18    9   5.3   2.9   -2.8  26.9     0.3      M    M
  9000  -14.4   6.1   030   20   10   6.8   3.7   -3.1  26.4    -0.0    253  1.3
  8750  -13.8   7.2   025   20   11   7.7   4.2   -3.3  26.1    -0.2    229  1.2
  8500  -13.3   8.1   025   21   11   7.5   4.1   -3.5  25.8    -0.4    205  1.0
  8250  -12.7   9.1   020   21   11   7.5   4.1   -3.6  25.5    -0.6    181  0.9
  8000  -12.2  10.0   020   22   11   7.5   4.1   -3.8  25.2    -0.7    157  0.8
  7750  -11.6  11.1   010   23   12   7.5   4.1   -4.0  24.8    -0.9    133  0.7
  7500  -11.1  12.0   005   24   13   7.5   4.1   -4.2  24.5    -1.1    109  0.6
  7250  -10.5  13.1   360   26   13   7.6   4.1   -4.3  24.2    -1.3     85  0.4
  7000  -10.0  14.0   355   28   14   7.7   4.2   -4.5  23.9    -1.5     61  0.3
  6750   -9.4  15.1   355   27   14   7.7   4.2   -4.6  23.6    -1.6     37  0.2
  6500   -8.8  16.2   355   26   13   7.7   4.2   -4.8  23.4    -1.8     12  0.1
  6250   -8.2  17.2   355   25   13   7.7   4.2   -5.0  23.1    -2.0      M    M
  6000   -7.7  18.1   355   24   12   7.7   4.2   -5.1  22.8    -2.1      M    M
  5750   -7.1  19.2   350   19   10   7.8   4.3   -5.3  22.5    -2.3      M    M
  5500   -6.5  20.3   345   14    7   9.2   5.1   -5.4  22.3    -2.4      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           02/02/2016 at 0800 MST          |       02/02/2016 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... +4.4  LI... +8.0                | K index... +2.5  LI... +7.3
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... 0.0                    | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.4
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -49.1 -56.4  225  34 17   2.1   1.2 | -48.6 -55.5  220  32 17   1.9   1.1
 45000 -46.0 -50.8  225  38 19   2.1   1.2 | -45.7 -50.3  225  37 19   1.9   1.1
 40000 -44.8 -48.6  230  34 17   0.5   0.3 | -45.4 -49.7  230  32 16  -0.2  -0.1
 38000 -44.5 -48.1  230  32 16  -0.0  -0.0 | -45.6 -50.1  235  29 15  -0.0  -0.0
 36000 -45.2 -49.4  235  26 14  -1.2  -0.7 | -46.4 -51.5  235  23 12  -1.3  -0.7
 34000 -45.9 -50.6  235  21 11  -1.2  -0.7 | -47.2 -53.0  235  17  9  -1.3  -0.7
 32000 -46.9 -52.4  220  14  7  -2.3  -1.3 | -48.1 -54.6  210  11  6  -1.8  -1.0
 30000 -48.3 -54.9  170  13  7  -2.3  -1.3 | -49.2 -56.6  160  14  7  -1.8  -1.0
 29000 -48.8 -55.8  145  18  9   3.8   2.1 | -49.6 -57.3  145  17  9   2.4   1.3
 28000 -47.7 -53.9  135  25 13   3.8   2.1 | -48.5 -55.3  135  19 10   4.0   2.2
 27000 -46.6 -51.9  125  34 17   3.8   2.1 | -47.3 -53.1  125  22 11   4.0   2.2
 26000 -45.4 -49.7  120  42 22   3.8   2.1 | -46.1 -51.0  120  25 13   3.6   2.0
 25000 -43.7 -46.7  125  33 17   6.4   3.5 | -44.2 -47.6  115  19 10   7.1   3.9
 24000 -41.8 -43.2  125  19 10   6.4   3.5 | -42.1 -43.8  115   9  4   7.1   3.9
 23000 -39.8 -39.6  140   6  3   6.4   3.5 | -40.0 -40.0  295   2  1   7.0   3.8
 22000 -37.7 -35.9  290   1  1   7.5   4.1 | -37.7 -35.9  330   7  3   7.8   4.3
 21000 -35.4 -31.7  320   6  3   7.5   4.1 | -35.4 -31.7  350  11  6   7.8   4.3
 20000 -33.2 -27.8  325  11  6   7.5   4.1 | -33.0 -27.4  360  16  8   6.1   3.3
 19500 -32.1 -25.8  335  11  6   7.5   4.1 | -32.4 -26.3  360  16  8   4.6   2.5
 19000 -31.0 -23.8  345  12  6   7.6   4.1 | -31.7 -25.1  355  17  9   4.5   2.5
 18500 -29.8 -21.6  355  14  7   7.6   4.2 | -30.7 -23.3  355  17  9   4.5   2.5
 18000 -28.7 -19.7  360  15  8   7.6   4.2 | -30.0 -22.0  355  18  9   4.8   2.6
 17500 -27.7 -17.9  005  17  9   2.7   1.5 | -29.6 -21.3  350  19 10   0.5   0.3
 17000 -27.7 -17.9  010  17  9   0.3   0.1 | -29.5 -21.1  350  19 10   0.7   0.4
 16500 -27.7 -17.9  010  17  9   0.3   0.2 | -29.2 -20.6  350  20 10   4.8   2.7
 16000 -27.6 -17.7  010  18  9   1.3   0.7 | -28.3 -18.9  350  21 11   5.8   3.2
 15500 -27.4 -17.3  010  19 10   1.0   0.5 | -27.4 -17.3  350  21 11   5.5   3.0
 15000 -26.5 -15.7  005  21 11   4.9   2.7 | -26.7 -16.1  350  22 11   5.3   2.9
 14500 -25.8 -14.4  360  23 12   5.8   3.2 | -25.9 -14.6  350  23 12   5.3   2.9
 14000 -24.8 -12.6  005  24 12   7.1   3.9 | -25.1 -13.2  350  23 12   5.3   2.9
 13500 -23.7 -10.7  010  25 13   7.3   4.0 | -24.3 -11.7  350  22 12   5.3   2.9
 13000 -22.6  -8.7  010  24 12   7.9   4.3 | -23.5 -10.3  350  21 11   5.5   3.0
 12500 -21.4  -6.5  015  23 12   7.8   4.3 | -22.7  -8.9  345  19 10   5.9   3.2
 12000 -20.3  -4.5  015  20 10   7.5   4.1 | -21.7  -7.1  350  19 10   6.8   3.8
 11500 -19.2  -2.6  020  16  8   7.1   3.9 | -20.7  -5.3  360  20 10   7.1   3.9
 11000 -18.2  -0.8  030  17  9   6.2   3.4 | -19.6  -3.3  005  18  9   7.6   4.2
 10500 -17.3   0.9  040  18  9   5.6   3.0 | -18.4  -1.1  015  17  9   7.1   3.9
 10250 -16.9   1.6  040  20 10   4.7   2.6 | -17.9  -0.2  020  17  9   6.7   3.7
 10000 -16.6   2.1  035  22 11   5.0   2.7 | -17.4   0.7  030  18  9   6.7   3.6
  9750 -16.2   2.8  035  23 12   5.9   3.3 | -16.9   1.6  035  19 10   8.2   4.5
  9500 -15.7   3.7  035  25 13   5.6   3.1 | -16.2   2.8  035  21 11   8.6   4.7
  9250 -15.4   4.3  035  25 13   5.0   2.7 | -15.7   3.7  035  22 11   7.4   4.1
  9000 -15.0   5.0  035  26 13   4.5   2.5 | -15.1   4.8  035  23 12   7.9   4.3
  8750 -14.6   5.7  030  27 14   7.0   3.8 | -14.5   5.9  035  24 12   7.2   4.0
  8500 -14.0   6.8  030  27 14   9.5   5.2 | -14.0   6.8  030  23 12   7.0   3.8
  8250 -13.3   8.1  025  27 14   8.5   4.7 | -13.5   7.7  025  24 12   7.2   3.9
  8000 -12.7   9.1  020  27 14   9.7   5.3 | -13.0   8.6  025  24 12   7.6   4.2
  7750 -11.9  10.6  020  27 14   9.5   5.2 | -12.4   9.7  020  23 12   7.6   4.2
  7500 -11.3  11.7  015  27 14   7.8   4.3 | -11.9  10.6  015  22 11   6.7   3.7
  7250 -10.8  12.6  015  26 14   7.6   4.2 | -11.4  11.5  010  21 11   6.5   3.6
  7000 -10.2  13.6  010  26 13   7.9   4.3 | -10.9  12.4  005  20 10   8.3   4.5
  6750  -9.6  14.7  005  25 13   7.4   4.1 | -10.2  13.6  360  19 10   9.2   5.0
  6500  -9.1  15.6  005  23 12   6.3   3.4 |  -9.6  14.7  355  18  9   8.0   4.4
  6250  -8.7  16.3  360  22 11   7.2   4.0 |  -9.0  15.8  350  17  9   9.4   5.1
  6000  -8.1  17.4  355  20 10   8.7   4.8 |  -8.2  17.2  350  16  8  11.1   6.1
  5750  -7.4  18.7  350  18  9   8.4   4.6 |  -7.4  18.7  350  15  8   9.8   5.4
  5500  -6.8  19.8  350  15  8   8.1   4.4 |  -6.7  19.9  345  14  7  10.3   5.6

           02/02/2016 at 1400 MST          |       02/02/2016 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... +1.6  LI... +5.7                | K index... +4.3  LI... +5.2
CAPE... +1.1  CIN... -0.4                  | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -48.6 -55.5  225  29 15   1.8   1.0 | -48.8 -55.8  230  26 14   2.1   1.1
 45000 -45.9 -50.6  240  31 16   1.8   1.0 | -45.5 -49.9  240  26 13   2.1   1.2
 40000 -45.4 -49.7  235  28 15  -0.0  -0.0 | -45.9 -50.6  250  24 12  -0.8  -0.4
 38000 -45.4 -49.7  235  27 14   0.2   0.1 | -46.4 -51.5  250  23 12  -0.6  -0.3
 36000 -46.8 -52.2  235  22 11  -2.2  -1.2 | -47.7 -53.9  250  21 11  -2.5  -1.4
 34000 -48.1 -54.6  235  18  9  -2.2  -1.2 | -49.3 -56.7  255  19 10  -2.5  -1.4
 32000 -49.2 -56.6  225  14  7  -1.3  -0.7 | -50.7 -59.3  255  15  8  -1.7  -0.9
 30000 -49.9 -57.8  195  11  6  -1.3  -0.7 | -51.7 -61.1  250  10  5  -1.7  -0.9
 29000 -50.2 -58.4  175  11  6   2.5   1.4 | -52.0 -61.6  245   8  4   3.4   1.9
 28000 -49.0 -56.2  170  11  6   4.0   2.2 | -50.6 -59.1  240   7  4   4.8   2.6
 27000 -47.7 -53.9  160  11  6   4.1   2.2 | -49.2 -56.6  240   6  3   4.8   2.6
 26000 -46.5 -51.7  150  11  6   3.7   2.0 | -47.7 -53.9  240   4  2   4.5   2.5
 25000 -44.6 -48.3  145   7  3   7.4   4.1 | -45.6 -50.1  270   4  2   7.8   4.3
 24000 -42.4 -44.3  000   0  0   7.4   4.1 | -43.3 -45.9  305   5  3   7.8   4.3
 23000 -40.1 -40.2  330   7  3   7.4   4.1 | -40.9 -41.6  315   8  4   7.8   4.3
 22000 -38.0 -36.4  335  10  5   7.2   3.9 | -38.8 -37.8  315  11  6   6.8   3.7
 21000 -35.8 -32.4  345  12  6   7.2   3.9 | -36.8 -34.2  310  14  7   6.8   3.7
 20000 -33.7 -28.7  345  15  8   5.2   2.8 | -34.8 -30.6  310  18  9   5.4   2.9
 19500 -33.2 -27.8  345  16  8   3.5   1.9 | -34.1 -29.4  315  18  9   4.8   2.6
 19000 -32.7 -26.9  340  17  9   3.4   1.9 | -33.4 -28.1  320  19 10   4.7   2.6
 18500 -32.1 -25.8  340  18  9   3.4   1.9 | -32.7 -26.9  320  20 10   4.7   2.6
 18000 -31.4 -24.5  340  20 10   3.3   1.8 | -32.0 -25.6  325  21 11   4.7   2.6
 17500 -30.6 -23.1  340  20 10   6.7   3.7 | -31.2 -24.2  330  21 11   5.3   2.9
 17000 -29.7 -21.5  345  21 11   6.4   3.5 | -30.4 -22.7  330  20 11   5.4   3.0
 16500 -28.7 -19.7  345  21 11   6.1   3.4 | -29.2 -20.6  340  20 10   5.4   3.0
 16000 -27.8 -18.0  350  21 11   6.0   3.3 | -28.4 -19.1  345  19 10   5.4   3.0
 15500 -26.9 -16.4  355  21 11   4.9   2.7 | -27.6 -17.7  350  19 10   4.8   2.6
 15000 -26.3 -15.3  355  21 11   4.1   2.2 | -27.0 -16.6  355  20 10   4.6   2.5
 14500 -25.7 -14.3  355  21 11   4.4   2.4 | -26.3 -15.3  360  21 11   5.5   3.0
 14000 -25.0 -13.0  355  22 11   5.0   2.8 | -25.3 -13.5  005  22 11   6.3   3.4
 13500 -24.2 -11.6  355  22 11   5.2   2.9 | -24.4 -11.9  010  23 12   7.2   4.0
 13000 -23.4 -10.1  355  22 12   5.6   3.1 | -23.2  -9.8  010  24 12   8.1   4.4
 12500 -22.6  -8.7  360  23 12   6.0   3.3 | -22.0  -7.6  015  24 12   7.8   4.3
 12000 -21.6  -6.9  360  22 11   6.8   3.7 | -20.9  -5.6  015  24 12   7.5   4.1
 11500 -20.6  -5.1  360  21 11   7.1   3.9 | -19.8  -3.6  015  23 12   7.7   4.2
 11000 -19.5  -3.1  005  20 10   7.5   4.1 | -18.6  -1.5  010  23 12   7.9   4.3
 10500 -18.4  -1.1  010  19 10   7.4   4.1 | -17.5   0.5  010  22 12   7.2   3.9
 10250 -17.8  -0.0  010  19 10   7.3   4.0 | -17.0   1.4  010  22 11   6.8   3.7
 10000 -17.3   0.9  010  19 10   7.3   4.0 | -16.4   2.5  010  22 11   7.2   3.9
  9750 -16.7   1.9  010  19 10   9.2   5.1 | -15.9   3.4  010  22 11   8.2   4.5
  9500 -16.0   3.2  015  19 10   9.3   5.1 | -15.3   4.5  015  22 11   8.1   4.4
  9250 -15.4   4.3  015  19 10   7.7   4.2 | -14.7   5.5  015  22 11   7.3   4.0
  9000 -14.8   5.4  015  19 10   8.2   4.5 | -14.1   6.6  015  22 11   8.0   4.4
  8750 -14.2   6.4  015  19 10   7.7   4.2 | -13.5   7.7  015  22 11   8.2   4.5
  8500 -13.6   7.5  015  19 10   7.8   4.3 | -13.0   8.6  015  22 11   7.7   4.2
  8250 -13.0   8.6  015  19 10   7.8   4.3 | -12.4   9.7  015  22 11   7.5   4.1
  8000 -12.5   9.5  015  19 10   8.5   4.7 | -11.8  10.8  010  22 12   7.8   4.3
  7750 -11.8  10.8  010  19 10   8.1   4.4 | -11.2  11.8  010  22 11   8.0   4.4
  7500 -11.3  11.7  005  18  9   6.3   3.5 | -10.6  12.9  005  21 11   7.7   4.2
  7250 -10.8  12.6  360  18  9   6.3   3.5 | -10.1  13.8  360  20 10   7.7   4.2
  7000 -10.3  13.5  355  17  9   7.7   4.2 |  -9.5  14.9  355  19 10   7.9   4.3
  6750  -9.7  14.5  345  16  8   8.6   4.7 |  -8.9  16.0  355  17  9   6.8   3.7
  6500  -9.1  15.6  340  15  8   7.7   4.2 |  -8.5  16.7  345  16  8   5.1   2.8
  6250  -8.5  16.7  335  14  7   9.4   5.2 |  -8.1  17.4  340  14  7   6.3   3.5
  6000  -7.7  18.1  335  13  7  11.5   6.3 |  -7.6  18.3  335  12  6   7.1   3.9
  5750  -6.9  19.6  335  13  7   9.7   5.3 |  -7.1  19.2  325  11  6   7.6   4.2
  5500  -6.3  20.7  330  12  6   9.7   5.3 |  -6.5  20.3  320   9  5   7.9   4.3
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
                   Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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