Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
UXUS97 KBOU 270321
SRGBOU

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
2021 MST Friday, December 26, 2014

This forecast is for Saturday, December 27, 2014:

If the trigger temperature of 27.1 F/-2.7 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 320 ft/min (1.6 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 9746 ft MSL (4459 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 28.0 F/-2.7 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1315 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 7008 ft MSL (1721 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 12/28....... Poor

Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1700 MST)......... No change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... None
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1700 MST)................ Weak NVA
Potential height of wave....................... 14408 ft MSL (9121 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Sunday 12/28.......... Poor

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:19:26 / 16:41:58 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 9 hr 22 min 31 sec (562 min 31 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:00:40 MST... 27.00 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 12/27/2014 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 13815 ft MSL (8528 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 11402 ft MSL (6114 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +8.5
K index......................... +1.4

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -52.9 -63.2   255   27   14   2.3   1.2      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -49.6 -57.3   260   26   13   2.3   1.2      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -48.2 -54.8   255   32   16   0.7   0.4      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -47.8 -54.0   255   34   18   0.5   0.3      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -47.6 -53.7   255   32   16   0.4   0.2      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -47.4 -53.3   255   29   15   0.4   0.2      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -47.6 -53.7   255   26   13  -0.7  -0.4      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -48.0 -54.4   260   23   12  -0.7  -0.4      M     M       M      M    M
 29000  -48.1 -54.6   265   21   11   0.9   0.5   27.4  81.4    22.2      M    M
 28000  -47.8 -54.0   275   18    9   0.8   0.4   23.7  74.6    19.7      M    M
 27000  -47.6 -53.7   285   15    8   0.8   0.4   20.2  68.3    17.2      M    M
 26000  -47.4 -53.3   300   13    7   2.0   1.1   16.9  62.4    14.9      M    M
 25000  -46.1 -51.0   305   13    7   4.2   2.3   14.6  58.2    13.2      M    M
 24000  -44.9 -48.8   305   12    6   4.2   2.3   12.4  54.4    11.7      M    M
 23000  -43.6 -46.5   310   12    6   5.8   3.2   10.5  50.9    10.3      M    M
 22000  -41.3 -42.3   310   11    6   7.7   4.2    9.6  49.3     9.7      M    M
 21000  -39.0 -38.2   310   10    5   7.7   4.2    8.9  48.0     9.2      M    M
 20000  -36.6 -33.9   310    9    5   8.6   4.7    8.3  46.9     8.8      M    M
 19500  -35.4 -31.7   310   10    5   8.6   4.7    8.0  46.5     8.6      M    M
 19000  -34.1 -29.4   310   10    5   8.6   4.7    7.8  46.1     8.5      M    M
 18500  -32.8 -27.0   305   10    5   8.6   4.7    7.6  45.7     8.4      M    M
 18000  -31.5 -24.7   305   10    5   8.5   4.7    7.5  45.5     8.3      M    M
 17500  -30.3 -22.5   305   10    5   8.0   4.4    7.2  45.0     8.1      M    M
 17000  -29.1 -20.4   305   11    5   8.0   4.4    6.9  44.4     7.9      M    M
 16500  -27.3 -17.1   305   12    6   8.0   4.4    6.4  43.6     7.6      M    M
 16000  -26.1 -15.0   305   12    6   8.0   4.4    6.2  43.1     7.3      M    M
 15500  -24.9 -12.8   305   13    7   7.6   4.2    5.8  42.5     7.1      M    M
 15000  -23.8 -10.8   305   14    7   7.7   4.2    5.4  41.8     6.8      M    M
 14500  -22.7  -8.9   305   15    8   6.6   3.6    5.0  41.0     6.4      M    M
 14000  -21.7  -7.1   310   16    8   6.9   3.8    4.5  40.1     6.0      M    M
 13500  -20.8  -5.4   310   16    8   5.4   3.0    3.9  39.1     5.5      M    M
 13000  -20.0  -4.0   315   16    8   5.6   3.1    3.2  37.8     4.9      M    M
 12500  -19.2  -2.6   315   16    8   5.0   2.7    2.5  36.5     4.2      M    M
 12000  -18.5  -1.3   320   16    8   5.1   2.8    1.7  35.1     3.5      M    M
 11500  -17.7   0.1   325   16    8   4.5   2.5    0.9  33.7     2.8      M    M
 11000  -17.1   1.2   325   16    8   4.5   2.5    0.1  32.2     2.0      M    M
 10500  -16.4   2.5   330   16    8   4.8   2.6   -0.7  30.7     1.3      M    M
 10250  -16.0   3.2   330   16    8   5.6   3.1   -1.1  30.1     0.9      M    M
 10000  -15.6   3.9   335   16    8   2.5   1.4   -1.5  29.4     0.6      M    M
  9750  -15.5   4.1   335   16    8   3.6   2.0   -2.1  28.2    -0.1    319  1.6
  9500  -15.0   5.0   335   15    8   7.6   4.2   -2.3  27.8    -0.3    296  1.5
  9250  -14.5   5.9   335   15    8   6.8   3.8   -2.6  27.4    -0.5    273  1.4
  9000  -14.0   6.8   335   15    8   5.6   3.1   -2.8  26.9    -0.7    251  1.3
  8750  -13.6   7.5   340   14    7   5.4   2.9   -3.2  26.3    -1.1    233  1.2
  8500  -13.1   8.4   340   14    7   7.0   3.9   -3.4  25.8    -1.4    211  1.1
  8250  -12.6   9.3   335   13    7   6.7   3.7   -3.7  25.4    -1.6    188  1.0
  8000  -12.1  10.2   335   12    6   6.4   3.5   -3.9  24.9    -1.8    166  0.8
  7750  -11.7  10.9   335   11    6   6.2   3.4   -4.2  24.5    -2.1    144  0.7
  7500  -11.2  11.8   330   11    5   6.0   3.3   -4.5  24.0    -2.4    123  0.6
  7250  -10.8  12.6   330   10    5   5.8   3.2   -4.8  23.4    -2.7    103  0.5
  7000  -10.3  13.5   325    9    5   5.6   3.1   -5.1  22.9    -3.0     82  0.4
  6750   -9.9  14.2   315    9    4   5.8   3.2   -5.4  22.3    -3.3     62  0.3
  6500   -9.5  14.9   310    8    4   3.1   1.7   -5.7  21.7    -3.7     44  0.2
  6250   -9.5  14.9   300    8    4   0.6   0.3   -6.4  20.5    -4.3     34  0.2
  6000   -9.4  15.1   290    8    4   2.1   1.1   -7.0  19.3    -5.0     23  0.1
  5750   -9.3  15.3   280    8    4  -1.2  -0.6   -7.7  18.2    -5.6     13  0.1
  5500   -9.8  14.4   265    6    3 -12.7  -7.0   -8.8  16.1    -6.8     21  0.1

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           12/27/2014 at 0800 MST          |       12/27/2014 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... -1.3  LI... +5.2                | K index... -8.7  LI... +5.4
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.4                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -52.8 -63.0  260  26 13   1.7   0.9 | -53.7 -64.7  260  28 14   2.2   1.2
 45000 -50.3 -58.5  270  25 13   1.7   0.9 | -50.4 -58.7  265  27 14   2.2   1.2
 40000 -48.5 -55.3  265  27 14   1.0   0.6 | -49.2 -56.6  270  24 13   0.5   0.3
 38000 -47.9 -54.2  265  27 14  -0.3  -0.1 | -49.0 -56.2  275  23 12  -1.1  -0.6
 36000 -48.1 -54.6  270  25 13  -0.3  -0.2 | -49.5 -57.1  290  22 11  -0.9  -0.5
 34000 -48.3 -54.9  275  22 11  -0.3  -0.2 | -50.1 -58.2  305  23 12  -0.9  -0.5
 32000 -48.4 -55.1  290  20 10  -0.0  -0.0 | -49.8 -57.6  325  22 11   1.2   0.7
 30000 -48.4 -55.1  310  19 10  -0.0  -0.0 | -49.1 -56.4  345  23 12   1.3   0.7
 29000 -48.2 -54.8  320  19 10   2.7   1.5 | -48.3 -54.9  350  25 13   4.4   2.4
 28000 -47.5 -53.5  325  20 10   2.5   1.3 | -46.7 -52.1  355  29 15   4.3   2.4
 27000 -46.6 -51.9  335  21 11   2.4   1.3 | -45.4 -49.7  360  32 16   4.3   2.4
 26000 -45.8 -50.4  340  21 11   3.7   2.0 | -44.0 -47.2  005  34 17   5.8   3.2
 25000 -44.6 -48.3  335  20 10   4.0   2.2 | -42.4 -44.3  360  32 16   5.6   3.1
 24000 -43.4 -46.1  335  19 10   4.0   2.2 | -40.7 -41.3  355  30 15   5.6   3.1
 23000 -42.0 -43.6  330  18  9   6.3   3.5 | -39.0 -38.2  350  28 14   5.6   3.1
 22000 -40.0 -40.0  330  17  9   6.8   3.7 | -37.3 -35.1  340  24 13   5.6   3.1
 21000 -38.0 -36.4  325  15  8   6.9   3.8 | -35.6 -32.1  325  22 11   5.7   3.1
 20000 -35.7 -32.3  320  14  7   8.2   4.5 | -33.8 -28.8  315  21 11   6.4   3.5
 19500 -34.5 -30.1  320  14  7   8.2   4.5 | -32.8 -27.0  310  20 10   6.5   3.5
 19000 -33.3 -27.9  320  14  7   8.2   4.5 | -31.9 -25.4  305  19 10   6.5   3.5
 18500 -32.0 -25.6  315  13  7   8.2   4.5 | -30.9 -23.6  300  19 10   6.5   3.6
 18000 -30.8 -23.4  315  13  7   8.3   4.6 | -29.9 -21.8  295  19 10   7.1   3.9
 17500 -29.6 -21.3  315  12  6   8.4   4.6 | -28.8 -19.8  295  18  9   7.7   4.2
 17000 -28.3 -18.9  310  12  6   8.4   4.6 | -27.6 -17.7  290  18  9   7.7   4.2
 16500 -27.1 -16.8  310  12  6   7.7   4.2 | -26.5 -15.7  290  18  9   7.8   4.3
 16000 -26.0 -14.8  310  12  6   7.8   4.3 | -25.3 -13.5  290  17  9   7.8   4.3
 15500 -24.8 -12.6  305  12  6   7.6   4.2 | -24.2 -11.6  290  17  9   7.8   4.3
 15000 -23.7 -10.7  305  12  6   7.6   4.2 | -23.0  -9.4  290  17  9   7.9   4.3
 14500 -22.6  -8.7  305  12  6   6.9   3.8 | -21.9  -7.4  290  16  8   7.1   3.9
 14000 -21.1  -6.0  305  12  6   6.6   3.6 | -20.3  -4.5  290  16  8   6.9   3.8
 13500 -20.2  -4.4  305  12  6   5.9   3.2 | -19.4  -2.9  290  15  8   6.0   3.3
 13000 -19.3  -2.7  305  12  6   5.9   3.3 | -18.5  -1.3  290  15  8   6.0   3.3
 12500 -18.5  -1.3  310  12  6   4.6   2.5 | -17.6   0.3  290  14  7   5.3   2.9
 12000 -17.8  -0.0  315  12  6   4.7   2.6 | -16.8   1.8  285  13  7   5.3   2.9
 11500 -17.2   1.0  315  12  6   4.5   2.5 | -16.1   3.0  285  12  6   4.7   2.6
 11000 -16.5   2.3  320  11  6   4.6   2.5 | -15.4   4.3  285  11  6   4.6   2.5
 10500 -15.8   3.6  325  11  6   5.0   2.7 | -14.7   5.5  280  10  5   4.3   2.4
 10250 -15.4   4.3  325  11  5   6.1   3.3 | -14.4   6.1  280   9  5   4.9   2.7
 10000 -15.0   5.0  325  10  5   1.8   1.0 | -14.1   6.6  280   9  5   2.6   1.4
  9750 -15.0   5.0  325  10  5   3.1   1.7 | -13.9   7.0  280   9  4   4.0   2.2
  9500 -14.4   6.1  325  10  5   8.2   4.5 | -13.4   7.9  275   8  4   7.4   4.1
  9250 -13.9   7.0  325   9  5   6.8   3.7 | -12.9   8.8  275   7  4   6.4   3.5
  9000 -13.4   7.9  330   9  4   5.1   2.8 | -12.5   9.5  270   6  3   4.5   2.5
  8750 -13.1   8.4  330   8  4   5.4   3.0 | -12.2  10.0  265   6  3   5.2   2.8
  8500 -12.6   9.3  325   8  4   7.5   4.1 | -11.7  10.9  260   6  3   7.2   3.9
  8250 -12.0  10.4  325   7  4   7.0   3.9 | -11.2  11.8  255   5  3   7.2   3.9
  8000 -11.5  11.3  320   7  3   6.8   3.8 | -10.6  12.9  255   6  3   7.8   4.3
  7750 -11.0  12.2  315   7  3   6.7   3.7 | -10.0  14.0  255   6  3   7.6   4.2
  7500 -10.5  13.1  310   6  3   6.9   3.8 |  -9.5  14.9  255   6  3   7.2   4.0
  7250 -10.0  14.0  305   7  3   7.8   4.3 |  -9.0  15.8  260   6  3   6.8   3.7
  7000  -9.4  15.1  300   7  4   8.3   4.6 |  -8.5  16.7  265   7  4   6.5   3.5
  6750  -8.8  16.2  300   8  4   7.6   4.2 |  -8.0  17.6  270   8  4   7.0   3.8
  6500  -8.3  17.1  295   8  4   2.9   1.6 |  -7.5  18.5  275   8  4   4.0   2.2
  6250  -8.3  17.1  290   9  4  -1.3  -0.7 |  -7.4  18.7  260   7  4   1.5   0.8
  6000  -8.3  17.1  285   9  5   3.4   1.9 |  -7.2  19.0  245   7  4   1.6   0.9
  5750  -8.3  17.1  280  10  5 -11.3  -6.2 |  -7.1  19.2  235   7  4   3.5   1.9
  5500 -10.4  13.3  250   6  3 -41.7 -22.9 |  -6.7  19.9  225   6  3   9.1   5.0

           12/27/2014 at 1400 MST          |       12/27/2014 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... -19.3  LI... +8.1               | K index... -28.4  LI... +9.3
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.1                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -54.1 -65.4  260  31 16   1.7   1.0 | -54.6 -66.3  255  29 15   0.7   0.4
 45000 -51.5 -60.7  260  36 19   1.7   0.9 | -53.4 -64.1  270  30 15   0.7   0.4
 40000 -50.3 -58.5  280  29 15   0.6   0.3 | -52.4 -62.3  290  29 15   0.6   0.4
 38000 -50.1 -58.2  290  27 14  -1.3  -0.7 | -52.1 -61.8  300  29 15  -0.5  -0.3
 36000 -50.8 -59.4  315  26 13  -1.2  -0.6 | -52.4 -62.3  320  32 17  -0.4  -0.2
 34000 -51.5 -60.7  330  28 14  -1.1  -0.6 | -52.6 -62.7  335  38 20  -0.4  -0.2
 32000 -51.3 -60.3  350  36 19   1.0   0.5 | -51.8 -61.2  345  47 24   1.9   1.1
 30000 -50.7 -59.3  005  49 25   1.1   0.6 | -50.6 -59.1  345  57 30   1.7   0.9
 29000 -49.5 -57.1  005  53 27   6.6   3.6 | -49.0 -56.2  350  58 30   7.6   4.2
 28000 -46.9 -52.4  005  53 27   6.8   3.7 | -46.1 -51.0  350  55 28   7.7   4.2
 27000 -44.9 -48.8  005  53 27   6.8   3.8 | -43.8 -46.8  350  53 27   7.7   4.2
 26000 -42.7 -44.9  005  51 26   8.0   4.4 | -41.4 -42.5  350  50 26   8.0   4.4
 25000 -40.4 -40.7  005  47 24   7.9   4.3 | -39.0 -38.2  350  46 24   8.1   4.4
 24000 -38.0 -36.4  005  43 22   7.9   4.3 | -36.6 -33.9  350  42 22   8.0   4.4
 23000 -35.8 -32.4  005  39 20   6.4   3.5 | -34.4 -29.9  350  38 19   6.4   3.5
 22000 -33.8 -28.8  005  36 18   6.6   3.6 | -32.5 -26.5  350  33 17   6.4   3.5
 21000 -31.8 -25.2  005  32 16   6.6   3.6 | -30.6 -23.1  345  29 15   6.4   3.5
 20000 -30.0 -22.0  005  28 14   5.9   3.2 | -28.6 -19.5  340  26 14   6.7   3.7
 19500 -29.1 -20.4  360  26 14   5.9   3.2 | -27.6 -17.7  340  25 13   6.8   3.7
 19000 -28.2 -18.8  355  25 13   5.9   3.2 | -26.6 -15.9  340  25 13   6.8   3.7
 18500 -27.3 -17.1  350  23 12   5.8   3.2 | -25.5 -13.9  335  24 12   6.8   3.7
 18000 -26.5 -15.7  345  22 11   5.2   2.8 | -24.5 -12.1  335  23 12   6.7   3.7
 17500 -25.8 -14.4  335  21 11   4.7   2.6 | -23.5 -10.3  335  23 12   6.7   3.7
 17000 -25.1 -13.2  325  20 10   4.7   2.6 | -22.5  -8.5  330  23 12   6.7   3.7
 16500 -24.4 -11.9  315  19 10   4.8   2.6 | -21.5  -6.7  330  23 12   7.0   3.8
 16000 -23.7 -10.7  305  19 10   4.6   2.5 | -20.5  -4.9  330  23 12   7.1   3.9
 15500 -22.9  -9.2  295  19 10   6.1   3.4 | -19.5  -3.1  330  23 12   6.0   3.3
 15000 -22.0  -7.6  285  19 10   6.0   3.3 | -18.6  -1.5  325  22 12   6.3   3.4
 14500 -21.1  -6.0  280  19 10   6.0   3.3 | -17.6   0.3  320  21 11   3.1   1.7
 14000 -19.7  -3.5  280  20 10   5.9   3.3 | -17.1   1.2  310  20 10   3.1   1.7
 13500 -18.9  -2.0  280  20 10   5.9   3.2 | -16.7   1.9  300  18 10   2.0   1.1
 13000 -18.0  -0.4  280  19 10   5.9   3.2 | -16.4   2.5  295  17  9   2.2   1.2
 12500 -17.1   1.2  280  19 10   6.0   3.3 | -15.9   3.4  290  16  8   4.6   2.5
 12000 -16.2   2.8  280  18  9   6.0   3.3 | -15.2   4.6  290  15  8   4.6   2.5
 11500 -15.3   4.5  280  18  9   6.5   3.6 | -14.3   6.3  295  15  8   7.2   3.9
 11000 -14.3   6.3  280  17  9   6.5   3.6 | -13.3   8.1  295  16  8   6.8   3.7
 10500 -13.4   7.9  285  17  9   6.4   3.5 | -12.4   9.7  295  17  9   5.5   3.0
 10250 -12.9   8.8  285  17  9   7.3   4.0 | -12.0  10.4  295  18  9   6.3   3.5
 10000 -12.4   9.7  285  17  9   4.1   2.2 | -11.6  11.1  295  19 10   3.6   2.0
  9750 -12.2  10.0  285  17  9   4.6   2.5 | -11.4  11.5  295  20 10   3.9   2.2
  9500 -11.6  11.1  290  17  9   8.3   4.6 | -10.9  12.4  290  20 10   6.9   3.8
  9250 -11.1  12.0  290  17  9   7.3   4.0 | -10.5  13.1  290  21 11   6.2   3.4
  9000 -10.6  12.9  290  17  9   4.6   2.5 | -10.0  14.0  290  21 11   5.0   2.8
  8750 -10.3  13.5  290  16  8   4.5   2.5 |  -9.7  14.5  290  20 10   4.6   2.5
  8500  -9.9  14.2  295  15  8   6.7   3.7 |  -9.3  15.3  285  19 10   5.4   3.0
  8250  -9.4  15.1  295  14  7   5.9   3.2 |  -9.0  15.8  285  18  9   5.5   3.0
  8000  -9.0  15.8  290  12  6   5.7   3.2 |  -8.5  16.7  285  16  8   5.9   3.2
  7750  -8.6  16.5  290  10  5   5.7   3.1 |  -8.1  17.4  280  14  7   6.3   3.4
  7500  -8.1  17.4  285   8  4   5.6   3.1 |  -7.6  18.3  280  12  6   6.7   3.6
  7250  -7.7  18.1  275   6  3   5.4   3.0 |  -7.1  19.2  280  10  5   6.2   3.4
  7000  -7.3  18.9  260   5  3   5.3   2.9 |  -6.7  19.9  275   8  4   6.3   3.4
  6750  -6.9  19.6  235   5  2   5.5   3.0 |  -6.2  20.8  265   7  3   5.6   3.1
  6500  -6.5  20.3  215   5  3   6.2   3.4 |  -5.8  21.6  255   6  3   5.5   3.0
  6250  -6.0  21.2  205   5  3   6.7   3.7 |  -5.4  22.3  240   5  3   5.8   3.2
  6000  -5.6  21.9  195   6  3   6.2   3.4 |  -5.0  23.0  220   5  3   6.5   3.6
  5750  -5.1  22.8  185   7  3   8.0   4.4 |  -4.5  23.9  205   6  3   3.8   2.1
  5500  -4.4  24.1  180   6  3  12.7   7.0 |  -4.6  23.7  195   6  3  -4.1  -2.3
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
                   Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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