Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
UXUS97 KBOU 270059
SRGBOU

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
1759 MST Thursday, February 26, 2015

This forecast is for Friday, February 27, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 25.3 F/-3.7 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 0 ft/min (0.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 8072 ft MSL (2765 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 20.0 F/-7.1 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... None
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 5599 ft MSL (292 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Saturday 02/28..... Poor

Wave Soaring Index............................. Fair
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1700 MST)......... No change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... 12204 ft MSL (6897 ft AGL)
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1700 MST)................ Weak PVA
Potential height of wave....................... 29447 ft MSL (24140 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Saturday 02/28........ Poor

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:35:40 / 17:47:58 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 12 min 17 sec (672 min 17 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:12:04 MST... 42.01 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 02/27/2015 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 14808 ft MSL (9501 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 9173 ft MSL (3866 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +15.4
K index......................... +4.5

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -52.4 -62.3   295   47   24   1.2   0.6      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -50.7 -59.3   290   47   24   1.2   0.6      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -50.0 -58.0   290   45   23   0.3   0.1      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -49.8 -57.6   290   44   23   0.8   0.4      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -51.8 -61.2   290   42   21  -3.8  -2.1      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -54.3 -65.7   290   39   20  -3.8  -2.1      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -54.5 -66.1   290   40   21   2.2   1.2      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -53.2 -63.8   285   43   22   2.2   1.2      M     M       M      M    M
 29000  -52.1 -61.8   285   45   23   6.9   3.8   21.5  70.7    21.1      M    M
 28000  -50.2 -58.4   285   45   23   6.6   3.6   20.1  68.2    20.4      M    M
 27000  -48.2 -54.8   285   45   23   6.6   3.6   18.9  66.0    19.7      M    M
 26000  -46.2 -51.2   280   46   24   7.0   3.9   17.8  64.0    19.1      M    M
 25000  -43.9 -47.0   280   45   23   7.8   4.3   16.9  62.5    18.6      M    M
 24000  -41.6 -42.9   280   43   22   7.8   4.3   16.2  61.1    18.3      M    M
 23000  -39.2 -38.6   280   42   22   7.2   3.9   15.6  60.0    18.0      M    M
 22000  -37.4 -35.3   275   42   22   6.2   3.4   14.2  57.5    17.1      M    M
 21000  -35.5 -31.9   275   42   22   6.2   3.4   12.9  55.2    16.2      M    M
 20000  -33.5 -28.3   270   41   21   8.4   4.6   11.9  53.4    15.5      M    M
 19500  -32.3 -26.1   270   38   19   8.2   4.5   11.6  52.8    15.4      M    M
 19000  -31.1 -24.0   270   35   18   8.2   4.5   11.3  52.3    15.2      M    M
 18500  -29.9 -21.8   270   32   16   8.2   4.5   11.0  51.8    15.1      M    M
 18000  -28.6 -19.5   265   29   15   8.1   4.5   10.8  51.4    14.9      M    M
 17500  -26.7 -16.1   270   25   13   8.7   4.8   10.5  50.8    14.8      M    M
 17000  -25.4 -13.7   275   23   12   8.7   4.7   10.3  50.5    14.7      M    M
 16500  -24.3 -11.7   280   23   12   7.2   4.0   10.0  49.9    14.5      M    M
 16000  -23.2  -9.8   285   23   12   7.4   4.0    9.6  49.2    14.2      M    M
 15500  -22.1  -7.8   285   23   12   7.1   3.9    9.1  48.4    13.9      M    M
 15000  -21.0  -5.8   290   21   11   7.2   3.9    8.7  47.6    13.6      M    M
 14500  -20.0  -4.0   290   20   10   6.0   3.3    8.2  46.7    13.2      M    M
 14000  -19.2  -2.6   290   18    9   5.7   3.1    7.5  45.5    12.6      M    M
 13500  -18.4  -1.1   295   16    8   4.7   2.6    6.8  44.3    12.1      M    M
 13000  -17.7   0.1   295   14    7   4.2   2.3    5.9  42.6    11.3      M    M
 12500  -17.1   1.2   290   12    6   2.7   1.5    5.0  40.9    10.5      M    M
 12000  -16.9   1.6   290   10    5   1.8   1.0    3.7  38.6     9.4      M    M
 11500  -16.6   2.1   285    8    4   1.3   0.7    2.4  36.3     8.2      M    M
 11000  -16.5   2.3   270    6    3   1.1   0.6    1.0  33.7     6.9      M    M
 10500  -16.3   2.7   255    5    2   0.8   0.4   -0.4  31.2     5.7      M    M
 10250  -16.3   2.7   250    4    2   0.8   0.5   -1.1  29.9     5.0      M    M
 10000  -16.2   2.8   240    4    2   0.3   0.2   -1.9  28.7     4.4      M    M
  9750  -16.1   3.0   235    3    2   2.3   1.3   -2.6  27.4     3.7      M    M
  9500  -15.9   3.4   230    5    2   3.4   1.8   -3.1  26.5     3.2      M    M
  9250  -15.7   3.7   230    6    3   2.0   1.1   -3.6  25.4     2.7      M    M
  9000  -15.5   4.1   225    7    4   2.7   1.5   -4.2  24.4     2.1      M    M
  8750  -15.3   4.5   220    9    5   2.8   1.5   -4.7  23.5     1.6      M    M
  8500  -15.1   4.8   210   12    6   1.9   1.0   -5.3  22.4     1.1      M    M
  8250  -15.0   5.0   205   16    8   1.4   0.7   -6.0  21.3     0.5      M    M
  8000  -14.9   5.2   200   20   10   1.6   0.9   -6.6  20.1    -0.1    215  1.1
  7750  -14.7   5.5   190   23   12   2.4   1.3   -7.2  19.0    -0.7    203  1.0
  7500  -14.5   5.9   185   25   13   2.9   1.6   -7.7  18.1    -1.3    190  1.0
  7250  -14.3   6.3   180   26   13   4.1   2.2   -8.2  17.2    -1.7    175  0.9
  7000  -13.9   7.0   175   26   13   6.2   3.4   -8.6  16.5    -2.1    156  0.8
  6750  -13.4   7.9   175   24   13   6.5   3.6   -8.8  16.1    -2.3    134  0.7
  6500  -13.0   8.6   170   23   12   6.4   3.5   -9.1  15.6    -2.6    113  0.6
  6250  -12.4   9.7   170   21   11   8.6   4.7   -9.3  15.3    -2.8     89  0.5
  6000  -11.7  10.9   165   19   10  10.1   5.5   -9.3  15.3    -2.9     60  0.3
  5750  -11.0  12.2   165   17    9   8.7   4.8   -9.3  15.2    -2.9     32  0.2
  5500  -10.4  13.3   160   15    8   7.5   4.1   -9.4  15.0    -3.0      7  0.0

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           02/27/2015 at 0800 MST          |       02/27/2015 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... +5.2  LI... +278.0              | K index... +3.8  LI... +277.7
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.9                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -1.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -52.8 -63.0  290  44 22   1.4   0.7 | -52.9 -63.2  285  42 22   1.6   0.9
 45000 -50.8 -59.4  290  42 22   1.3   0.7 | -50.4 -58.7  285  40 21   1.6   0.9
 40000 -50.5 -58.9  290  42 22  -0.1  -0.1 | -50.5 -58.9  285  42 22  -0.5  -0.3
 38000 -50.6 -59.1  290  42 22   0.2   0.1 | -50.8 -59.4  285  43 22  -0.2  -0.1
 36000 -52.2 -62.0  290  40 21  -3.0  -1.7 | -52.8 -63.0  290  39 20  -3.6  -2.0
 34000 -54.0 -65.2  290  37 19  -3.0  -1.7 | -55.2 -67.4  290  34 17  -3.7  -2.0
 32000 -54.0 -65.2  290  36 18   2.7   1.5 | -54.7 -66.5  295  30 16   3.8   2.1
 30000 -52.4 -62.3  290  36 18   2.7   1.5 | -52.4 -62.3  300  28 14   3.8   2.1
 29000 -51.2 -60.2  290  36 19   6.5   3.6 | -50.9 -59.6  305  27 14   7.2   4.0
 28000 -49.4 -56.9  290  36 19   6.2   3.4 | -48.8 -55.8  305  27 14   7.0   3.9
 27000 -47.5 -53.5  290  37 19   6.2   3.4 | -46.7 -52.1  305  27 14   7.0   3.9
 26000 -45.6 -50.1  290  37 19   6.6   3.6 | -44.6 -48.3  305  27 14   6.9   3.8
 25000 -43.5 -46.3  290  36 19   7.2   3.9 | -42.6 -44.7  305  27 14   6.6   3.6
 24000 -41.3 -42.3  290  35 18   7.2   3.9 | -40.6 -41.1  300  27 14   6.6   3.6
 23000 -39.1 -38.4  295  33 17   6.9   3.8 | -38.6 -37.5  300  27 14   6.9   3.8
 22000 -37.2 -35.0  290  33 17   6.5   3.6 | -36.4 -33.5  300  26 13   7.2   3.9
 21000 -35.2 -31.4  290  33 17   6.5   3.6 | -34.3 -29.7  300  25 13   7.2   4.0
 20000 -33.3 -27.9  285  33 17   6.5   3.6 | -32.2 -26.0  295  25 13   6.2   3.4
 19500 -32.3 -26.1  280  33 17   6.5   3.6 | -31.2 -24.2  295  26 13   6.3   3.5
 19000 -31.3 -24.3  280  33 17   6.5   3.6 | -30.3 -22.5  295  26 13   6.3   3.5
 18500 -30.4 -22.7  275  33 17   6.5   3.6 | -29.3 -20.7  290  26 14   6.3   3.5
 18000 -29.4 -20.9  275  33 17   6.3   3.5 | -28.4 -19.1  290  27 14   6.4   3.5
 17500 -28.2 -18.8  270  32 17   9.4   5.1 | -27.0 -16.6  285  27 14   6.3   3.4
 17000 -26.2 -15.2  270  29 15   9.0   4.9 | -26.1 -15.0  285  28 14   6.4   3.5
 16500 -25.0 -13.0  275  28 14   7.9   4.4 | -25.0 -13.0  280  29 15   7.3   4.0
 16000 -23.8 -10.8  280  26 13   8.1   4.5 | -24.0 -11.2  280  29 15   7.2   3.9
 15500 -22.6  -8.7  285  25 13   7.2   3.9 | -22.8  -9.0  275  29 15   8.1   4.5
 15000 -21.6  -6.9  285  24 12   7.2   4.0 | -21.6  -6.9  275  29 15   8.1   4.5
 14500 -20.5  -4.9  290  23 12   6.4   3.5 | -20.5  -4.9  275  29 15   7.7   4.2
 14000 -19.6  -3.3  295  21 11   6.2   3.4 | -19.3  -2.7  280  27 14   7.6   4.2
 13500 -18.7  -1.7  295  19 10   5.6   3.1 | -18.2  -0.8  280  26 13   7.0   3.8
 13000 -17.9  -0.2  300  17  9   5.3   2.9 | -17.2   1.0  280  24 12   6.7   3.7
 12500 -17.1   1.2  300  14  7   4.6   2.5 | -16.3   2.7  285  21 11   5.5   3.0
 12000 -16.5   2.3  300  12  6   4.3   2.3 | -15.6   3.9  285  18  9   4.8   2.6
 11500 -15.9   3.4  300  10  5   2.5   1.4 | -14.9   5.2  290  15  8   3.8   2.1
 11000 -15.7   3.7  295   7  4   1.7   1.0 | -14.4   6.1  285  12  6   3.5   1.9
 10500 -15.5   4.1  280   5  2   0.6   0.3 | -14.0   6.8  285   9  5   1.8   1.0
 10250 -15.5   4.1  275   4  2   0.3   0.2 | -13.9   7.0  280   9  4   1.3   0.7
 10000 -15.4   4.3  270   4  2   0.3   0.2 | -13.7   7.3  280   8  4   1.5   0.8
  9750 -15.4   4.3  260   3  2   0.8   0.4 | -13.6   7.5  275   7  3   1.2   0.6
  9500 -15.3   4.5  255   3  2   1.0   0.6 | -13.6   7.5  275   6  3  -0.3  -0.2
  9250 -15.3   4.5  255   4  2   0.7   0.4 | -13.7   7.3  275   5  3  -1.1  -0.6
  9000 -15.2   4.6  255   4  2   0.8   0.4 | -13.7   7.3  275   4  2  -1.0  -0.5
  8750 -15.1   4.8  250   5  3   1.6   0.9 | -13.8   7.2  275   4  2  -1.1  -0.6
  8500 -15.0   5.0  230   7  3   2.4   1.3 | -13.9   7.0  265   4  2  -0.6  -0.3
  8250 -14.8   5.4  220   9  5   2.6   1.4 | -13.9   7.0  255   4  2  -1.4  -0.7
  8000 -14.6   5.7  215  12  6   1.9   1.0 | -14.0   6.8  250   4  2   1.8   1.0
  7750 -14.5   5.9  200  16  8   1.5   0.8 | -13.7   7.3  215   5  3   4.7   2.6
  7500 -14.4   6.1  190  19 10   1.7   0.9 | -13.4   7.9  190   7  4   2.4   1.3
  7250 -14.2   6.4  185  21 11   2.9   1.6 | -13.2   8.2  180  10  5   3.5   1.9
  7000 -13.9   7.0  180  21 11   5.7   3.1 | -12.8   9.0  175  11  6   7.5   4.1
  6750 -13.4   7.9  180  20 10   6.0   3.3 | -12.2  10.0  170  11  6   8.9   4.9
  6500 -13.0   8.6  175  18  9   5.9   3.3 | -11.6  11.1  170  10  5   8.6   4.7
  6250 -12.5   9.5  175  17  9   8.9   4.9 | -10.9  12.4  170  10  5   9.9   5.4
  6000 -11.7  10.9  170  15  8  10.9   6.0 | -10.1  13.8  170  10  5  10.7   5.8
  5750 -11.0  12.2  170  14  7   9.3   5.1 |  -9.3  15.3  170   9  5  10.4   5.7
  5500 -10.3  13.5  165  12  6   9.2   5.0 |  -8.5  16.7  165   8  4  12.7   7.0

           02/27/2015 at 1400 MST          |       02/27/2015 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... +1.6  LI... +277.6              | K index... +6.1  LI... +277.2
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.2                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -53.0 -63.4  280  45 23   1.2   0.7 | -53.4 -64.1  285  46 24   0.8   0.4
 45000 -51.1 -60.0  280  44 23   1.2   0.7 | -52.2 -62.0  280  46 24   0.8   0.4
 40000 -51.0 -59.8  280  46 23  -0.1  -0.1 | -51.9 -61.4  280  46 24   0.1   0.0
 38000 -51.0 -59.8  285  47 24   0.0   0.0 | -51.8 -61.2  280  47 24  -0.1  -0.1
 36000 -52.9 -63.2  285  42 21  -3.5  -1.9 | -53.4 -64.1  280  43 22  -2.9  -1.6
 34000 -55.3 -67.5  285  36 18  -3.5  -1.9 | -55.2 -67.4  280  40 20  -2.9  -1.6
 32000 -55.1 -67.2  290  29 15   2.6   1.4 | -55.0 -67.0  275  31 16   2.6   1.4
 30000 -53.5 -64.3  305  23 12   2.7   1.5 | -53.4 -64.1  280  19 10   2.8   1.5
 29000 -51.9 -61.4  315  21 11   9.1   5.0 | -51.8 -61.2  280  15  8   8.6   4.7
 28000 -49.3 -56.7  325  21 11   8.9   4.9 | -49.2 -56.6  285  14  7   8.7   4.7
 27000 -46.6 -51.9  330  21 11   8.9   4.9 | -46.6 -51.9  295  13  7   8.7   4.7
 26000 -43.9 -47.0  340  22 11   8.0   4.4 | -44.1 -47.4  300  12  6   8.3   4.5
 25000 -41.7 -43.1  330  20 10   7.3   4.0 | -41.6 -42.9  295  12  6   8.1   4.5
 24000 -39.5 -39.1  320  19 10   7.3   4.0 | -39.2 -38.6  290  13  7   8.1   4.5
 23000 -37.3 -35.1  310  18  9   6.9   3.8 | -36.8 -34.2  285  13  7   7.2   4.0
 22000 -35.4 -31.7  305  18  9   6.4   3.5 | -34.8 -30.6  280  15  8   6.6   3.6
 21000 -33.5 -28.3  305  19 10   6.4   3.5 | -32.8 -27.0  275  17  9   6.6   3.6
 20000 -31.6 -24.9  300  19 10   6.4   3.5 | -30.8 -23.4  275  19 10   6.2   3.4
 19500 -30.6 -23.1  300  20 10   6.4   3.5 | -29.9 -21.8  280  21 11   6.2   3.4
 19000 -29.6 -21.3  300  21 11   6.4   3.5 | -29.0 -20.2  280  22 11   6.2   3.4
 18500 -28.7 -19.7  295  21 11   6.4   3.5 | -28.0 -18.4  285  23 12   6.3   3.4
 18000 -27.7 -17.9  295  22 11   6.4   3.5 | -27.1 -16.8  285  25 13   6.3   3.4
 17500 -26.2 -15.2  295  25 13   6.6   3.6 | -26.2 -15.2  285  26 13   5.8   3.2
 17000 -25.2 -13.4  290  27 14   6.6   3.6 | -24.9 -12.8  285  28 14   6.0   3.3
 16500 -24.3 -11.7  290  29 15   5.7   3.1 | -24.0 -11.2  285  30 15   6.4   3.5
 16000 -23.5 -10.3  285  31 16   5.7   3.1 | -23.1  -9.6  285  32 16   6.2   3.4
 15500 -22.5  -8.5  285  32 17   7.8   4.3 | -22.0  -7.6  285  33 17   8.0   4.4
 15000 -21.4  -6.5  280  32 17   7.8   4.3 | -20.8  -5.4  285  33 17   7.9   4.3
 14500 -20.2  -4.4  280  32 16   7.9   4.3 | -19.6  -3.3  285  32 17   8.2   4.5
 14000 -19.1  -2.4  280  29 15   7.9   4.4 | -18.4  -1.1  285  31 16   8.3   4.5
 13500 -17.9  -0.2  275  27 14   7.3   4.0 | -17.2   1.0  290  29 15   7.9   4.3
 13000 -16.9   1.6  280  24 12   7.0   3.9 | -16.1   3.0  290  27 14   7.8   4.3
 12500 -15.8   3.6  280  21 11   6.3   3.5 | -14.9   5.2  290  24 12   7.5   4.1
 12000 -15.0   5.0  280  18  9   6.0   3.3 | -13.8   7.2  290  22 11   7.4   4.1
 11500 -14.1   6.6  280  16  8   4.9   2.7 | -12.8   9.0  295  19 10   5.1   2.8
 11000 -13.5   7.7  280  14  7   4.5   2.5 | -12.2  10.0  290  15  8   4.2   2.3
 10500 -12.9   8.8  285  11  6   2.8   1.5 | -11.7  10.9  285  12  6   2.7   1.5
 10250 -12.7   9.1  285  10  5   2.0   1.1 | -11.5  11.3  285  11  6   2.1   1.2
 10000 -12.5   9.5  280   9  5   2.6   1.4 | -11.3  11.7  280  10  5   2.4   1.3
  9750 -12.3   9.9  280   8  4   2.4   1.3 | -11.2  11.8  275   8  4   1.7   0.9
  9500 -12.2  10.0  280   7  4   0.6   0.4 | -11.1  12.0  275   7  4   0.8   0.4
  9250 -12.2  10.0  285   6  3  -0.1  -0.0 | -11.0  12.2  270   6  3   0.9   0.5
  9000 -12.2  10.0  285   5  3  -0.0  -0.0 | -11.0  12.2  270   5  3   0.4   0.2
  8750 -12.3   9.9  290   5  2  -2.6  -1.4 | -11.0  12.2  265   4  2  -3.1  -1.7
  8500 -12.6   9.3  285   4  2  -3.6  -2.0 | -11.4  11.5  260   4  2  -4.3  -2.3
  8250 -12.8   9.0  280   3  1  -3.7  -2.0 | -11.6  11.1  255   3  2  -3.8  -2.1
  8000 -13.0   8.6  270   2  1  -0.6  -0.3 | -11.9  10.6  250   3  2  -2.0  -1.1
  7750 -12.8   9.0  195   2  1   5.3   2.9 | -11.8  10.8  225   3  2   3.6   2.0
  7500 -12.4   9.7  170   4  2   6.4   3.5 | -11.5  11.3  205   4  2   6.1   3.3
  7250 -11.9  10.6  160   6  3   6.8   3.7 | -11.0  12.2  195   5  3   6.2   3.4
  7000 -11.3  11.7  155   7  4   9.6   5.3 | -10.5  13.1  190   6  3   7.8   4.3
  6750 -10.6  12.9  150   7  4  10.2   5.6 |  -9.9  14.2  180   7  4   8.7   4.8
  6500  -9.9  14.2  150   7  4   8.6   4.7 |  -9.3  15.3  175   8  4   8.4   4.6
  6250  -9.2  15.4  150   7  4  10.0   5.5 |  -8.6  16.5  175   8  4   9.1   5.0
  6000  -8.4  16.9  150   7  3  11.6   6.3 |  -7.9  17.8  170   7  3   9.7   5.3
  5750  -7.6  18.3  150   6  3   9.8   5.4 |  -7.2  19.0  165   6  3   9.4   5.1
  5500  -6.9  19.6  150   6  3   9.7   5.3 |  -6.6  20.1  155   5  2   7.0   3.8
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
                   Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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