Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
UXUS97 KBOU 191322
SRGBOU

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
0722 MDT Thursday, May 19, 2016

This forecast is for Thursday, May 19, 2016:

If the trigger temperature of 64.5 F/18.1 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 1045 ft/min (5.3 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 16793 ft MSL (11508 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 73.0 F/23.2 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1100 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 12528 ft MSL (7243 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 05/20....... Excellent

Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1800 MDT)......... Little change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... 16877 ft MSL (11592 ft AGL)
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1800 MDT)................ Neither
Potential height of wave....................... 17371 ft MSL (12086 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Friday 05/20.......... Poor

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:41:07 / 20:10:41 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 29 min 34 sec (869 min 34 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:56:06 MDT... 70.19 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 05/19/2016 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 11649 ft MSL (6364 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 13479 ft MSL (8194 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 14611 ft MSL (9326 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -2.3
K index......................... +17.2

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -60.4 -76.7   260   24   12   4.0   2.2   98.4 209.1    43.3      M    M
 45000  -58.6 -73.5   260   19   10  -3.3  -1.8   76.8 170.3    33.2      M    M
 40000  -62.0 -79.6   330   14    7  -0.5  -0.2   48.3 119.0    16.8      M    M
 38000  -60.4 -76.7   355   12    6   2.8   1.5   41.8 107.3    12.9      M    M
 36000  -57.6 -71.7   030   10    5   6.8   3.7   37.4  99.3    10.1      M    M
 34000  -52.6 -62.7   055   12    6   8.0   4.4   34.9  94.9     8.7      M    M
 32000  -47.8 -54.0   035   13    7   8.0   4.4   33.4  92.2     7.8      M    M
 30000  -42.9 -45.2   030   13    7   8.2   4.5   32.4  90.4     7.3      M    M
 29000  -40.4 -40.7   030   12    6   8.2   4.5   31.6  88.8     6.7      M    M
 28000  -38.0 -36.4   030   11    6   8.2   4.5   30.8  87.5     6.2      M    M
 27000  -35.5 -31.9   035   11    5   8.2   4.5   30.3  86.5     5.9      M    M
 26000  -33.0 -27.4   035   10    5   8.2   4.5   29.8  85.7     5.6      M    M
 25000  -30.5 -22.9   035    9    5   9.1   5.0   29.5  85.1     5.4      M    M
 24000  -27.7 -17.9   035   12    6   8.8   4.8   29.4  84.9     5.4      M    M
 23000  -25.1 -13.2   025   10    5   8.6   4.7   28.9  84.0     5.0      M    M
 22000  -22.5  -8.5   015    8    4   8.5   4.7   28.5  83.3     4.8      M    M
 21000  -20.1  -4.2   355    7    4   8.0   4.4   27.9  82.3     4.3      M    M
 20000  -17.7   0.1   335    7    4   8.0   4.4   27.4  81.3     3.9      M    M
 19500  -16.5   2.3   340    6    3   8.0   4.4   27.1  80.7     3.7      M    M
 19000  -15.3   4.5   345    4    2   8.0   4.4   26.8  80.2     3.4      M    M
 18500  -14.0   6.8   335    6    3   8.4   4.6   26.5  79.6     3.2      M    M
 18000  -12.8   9.0   335    7    4   7.2   4.0   26.3  79.3     3.0      M    M
 17500  -12.1  10.2   335    9    4   3.1   1.7   25.3  77.5     2.2      M    M
 17000  -11.8  10.8   330   10    5  -2.1  -1.2   23.3  74.0     0.3      M    M
 16500  -11.5  11.3   315   13    7  10.4   5.7   22.2  71.9    -0.8   1021  5.2
 16000  -10.3  13.5   315   15    8   5.3   2.9   21.8  71.2    -1.1    971  4.9
 15500   -9.3  15.3   335   17    9   8.0   4.4   21.3  70.3    -1.5    924  4.7
 15000   -8.1  17.4   345   19   10   8.1   4.5   21.0  69.8    -1.9    876  4.4
 14500   -6.9  19.6   345   19   10   8.7   4.8   20.8  69.4    -2.1    823  4.2
 14000   -5.6  21.9   345   19   10   8.7   4.8   20.6  69.1    -2.3    769  3.9
 13500   -4.3  24.3   345   18    9   8.7   4.8   20.4  68.8    -2.5    715  3.6
 13000   -3.0  26.6   345   17    9   8.4   4.6   20.2  68.4    -2.7    662  3.4
 12500   -1.9  28.6   350   16    8   5.9   3.3   19.9  67.8    -3.1    616  3.1
 12000   -0.9  30.4   350   15    8  10.1   5.5   19.6  67.2    -3.5    568  2.9
 11500    0.6  33.1   345   12    6   9.6   5.3   19.5  67.2    -3.6    511  2.6
 11000    2.0  35.6   340    9    5   8.7   4.8   19.5  67.1    -3.6    453  2.3
 10500    3.0  37.4   330    7    3   6.9   3.8   19.1  66.4    -4.1    408  2.1
 10250    3.6  38.5   320    6    3   9.1   5.0   19.0  66.1    -4.3    384  2.0
 10000    4.3  39.7   315    5    2   9.8   5.3   19.0  66.2    -4.3    355  1.8
  9750    5.0  41.0   325    5    2   8.7   4.8   18.9  66.1    -4.4    327  1.7
  9500    5.6  42.1   330    4    2   9.0   4.9   18.9  65.9    -4.5    300  1.5
  9250    6.3  43.3   335    4    2   8.9   4.9   18.8  65.9    -4.5    273  1.4
  9000    7.0  44.6   345    4    2   9.0   4.9   18.8  65.8    -4.6    245  1.2
  8750    7.6  45.7   335    5    3   9.0   4.9   18.7  65.6    -4.7    218  1.1
  8500    8.3  46.9   330    6    3   8.9   4.9   18.6  65.5    -4.7    190  1.0
  8250    9.0  48.2   325    7    4   9.1   5.0   18.6  65.4    -4.8    163  0.8
  8000    9.6  49.3   320    8    4   8.4   4.6   18.5  65.3    -4.9    136  0.7
  7750   10.1  50.2   320    7    4   5.6   3.1   18.3  64.9    -5.1    113  0.6
  7500   10.5  50.9   320    7    3   4.5   2.5   17.9  64.2    -5.6     95  0.5
  7250   10.8  51.4   315    6    3   4.6   2.5   17.5  63.5    -6.0     78  0.4
  7000   11.1  52.0   315    5    3   5.3   2.9   17.1  62.8    -6.4     61  0.3
  6750   11.3  52.3   305    5    2  -1.9  -1.1   16.6  61.9    -6.9     47  0.2
  6500   10.9  51.6   290    4    2  -5.5  -3.0   15.4  59.8    -8.1     54  0.3
  6250   10.7  51.3   275    5    2   1.0   0.5   14.6  58.2    -9.1     52  0.3
  6000   10.9  51.6   260    5    3   4.8   2.6   14.0  57.3    -9.6     38  0.2
  5750   11.1  52.0   240    4    2  -2.9  -1.6   13.5  56.4   -10.1     24  0.1
  5500    9.9  49.8   205    4    2 -30.7 -16.8   11.6  52.9   -12.1     53  0.3

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           05/19/2016 at 0900 MDT          |       05/19/2016 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... +19.3  LI... -0.5               | K index... +20.3  LI... -1.2
CAPE... +48.3  CIN... -36.1                | CAPE... +238.5  CIN... -13.3
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -59.0 -74.2  275  19 10   0.5   0.3 | -58.9 -74.0  270  18  9   0.2   0.1
 45000 -58.3 -72.9  270  15  8  -1.2  -0.6 | -58.6 -73.5  270  20 10  -0.9  -0.5
 40000 -61.6 -78.9  360  17  9  -2.2  -1.2 | -61.9 -79.4  340  14  7  -2.1  -1.2
 38000 -60.2 -76.4  005  19 10   6.0   3.3 | -59.8 -75.6  350  16  8   6.5   3.5
 36000 -56.2 -69.2  005  16  8   6.0   3.3 | -56.0 -68.8  345  18  9   6.5   3.5
 34000 -52.2 -62.0  360  15  8   7.9   4.3 | -51.9 -61.4  345  19 10   7.7   4.2
 32000 -47.5 -53.5  005  14  7   7.9   4.3 | -47.2 -53.0  345  18  9   7.8   4.3
 30000 -42.6 -44.7  010  13  7   8.7   4.8 | -42.4 -44.3  345  15  8   8.5   4.7
 29000 -40.0 -40.0  015  12  6   8.7   4.8 | -39.2 -38.6  350  12  6   8.5   4.7
 28000 -37.4 -35.3  025  12  6   8.7   4.8 | -36.7 -34.1  355  10  5   8.5   4.7
 27000 -34.8 -30.6  030  11  6   8.0   4.4 | -34.2 -29.6  360   8  4   8.0   4.4
 26000 -32.4 -26.3  025  10  5   8.0   4.4 | -31.8 -25.2  360   7  4   8.0   4.4
 25000 -30.0 -22.0  025   8  4   8.0   4.4 | -29.4 -20.9  360   7  3   8.0   4.4
 24000 -27.6 -17.7  020   7  4   8.3   4.5 | -27.0 -16.6  355   6  3   8.4   4.6
 23000 -25.1 -13.2  020   7  3   8.4   4.6 | -24.5 -12.1  350   6  3   8.4   4.6
 22000 -22.5  -8.5  025   6  3   8.4   4.6 | -21.9  -7.4  350   6  3   8.5   4.6
 21000 -20.1  -4.2  020   6  3   6.6   3.6 | -19.5  -3.1  345   6  3   7.0   3.8
 20000 -18.1  -0.6  355   6  3   6.7   3.7 | -17.4   0.7  335   6  3   7.1   3.9
 19500 -17.1   1.2  340   6  3   6.8   3.7 | -16.3   2.7  325   6  3   7.1   3.9
 19000 -16.1   3.0  330   7  4   6.9   3.8 | -15.3   4.5  320   6  3   7.2   3.9
 18500 -15.2   4.6  325   8  4   6.9   3.8 | -14.2   6.4  315   6  3   6.5   3.6
 18000 -13.7   7.3  325   9  5   6.9   3.8 | -13.3   8.1  315   7  4   6.5   3.6
 17500 -12.7   9.1  325   9  5   6.1   3.4 | -12.4   9.7  310   7  4   6.5   3.6
 17000 -11.8  10.8  335   9  5   5.9   3.3 | -11.5  11.3  305   8  4   5.9   3.3
 16500 -10.9  12.4  345   9  5   6.4   3.5 | -10.7  12.7  305   8  4   6.0   3.3
 16000  -9.8  14.4  355  10  5   7.4   4.1 |  -9.7  14.5  300   7  4   6.8   3.7
 15500  -8.7  16.3  005  10  5   7.4   4.0 |  -8.7  16.3  290   6  3   6.8   3.7
 15000  -7.5  18.5  005  11  5   9.1   5.0 |  -7.1  19.2  280   4  2   8.4   4.6
 14500  -6.2  20.8  005  11  5   9.1   5.0 |  -5.9  21.4  290   3  1   8.3   4.6
 14000  -5.0  23.0  005  10  5   8.5   4.7 |  -4.7  23.5  305   2  1   8.6   4.7
 13500  -3.8  25.2  360   9  5   8.6   4.7 |  -3.5  25.7  330   2  1   8.7   4.8
 13000  -2.6  27.3  355   8  4   8.4   4.6 |  -2.2  28.0  340   2  1   8.8   4.8
 12500  -1.4  29.5  350   7  3   8.3   4.6 |  -1.0  30.2  310   2  1   8.8   4.8
 12000  -0.2  31.6  345   5  3   8.6   4.7 |   0.3  32.5  285   2  1   8.8   4.8
 11500   1.1  34.0  335   5  2   8.7   4.8 |   1.6  34.9  270   3  1   8.8   4.8
 11000   2.4  36.3  320   4  2   7.4   4.1 |   2.9  37.2  260   4  2   7.9   4.3
 10500   3.4  38.1  305   4  2   6.0   3.3 |   4.0  39.2  260   4  2   7.1   3.9
 10250   3.9  39.0  300   5  2   9.9   5.4 |   4.5  40.1  260   5  2   9.5   5.2
 10000   4.7  40.5  290   5  3  10.1   5.6 |   5.3  41.5  260   5  2   9.2   5.1
  9750   5.3  41.5  285   6  3   6.4   3.5 |   5.8  42.4  265   5  2   6.8   3.8
  9500   5.8  42.4  280   6  3   7.5   4.1 |   6.3  43.3  270   5  2   7.1   3.9
  9250   6.3  43.3  280   6  3   7.0   3.9 |   6.8  44.2  275   5  2   8.4   4.6
  9000   6.9  44.4  275   7  3   7.9   4.4 |   7.5  45.5  280   5  2   9.9   5.4
  8750   7.5  45.5  275   7  4   8.8   4.8 |   8.2  46.8  285   5  2   9.5   5.2
  8500   8.1  46.6  275   7  4   8.4   4.6 |   8.9  48.0  285   4  2   9.4   5.2
  8250   8.8  47.8  280   7  4   9.2   5.0 |   9.6  49.3  290   4  2  10.2   5.6
  8000   9.5  49.1  280   8  4   9.8   5.4 |  10.4  50.7  290   4  2  10.6   5.8
  7750  10.2  50.4  285   8  4   9.2   5.1 |  11.2  52.2  290   4  2   9.7   5.3
  7500  10.9  51.6  285   9  4   9.1   5.0 |  11.9  53.4  290   4  2   9.5   5.2
  7250  11.5  52.7  290   9  5   7.8   4.3 |  12.6  54.7  290   4  2  10.5   5.8
  7000  12.1  53.8  295  10  5   6.7   3.7 |  13.4  56.1  290   4  2  11.2   6.1
  6750  12.6  54.7  295  11  6   6.7   3.7 |  14.2  57.6  290   4  2   9.6   5.3
  6500  13.0  55.4  295  11  6   5.8   3.2 |  14.9  58.8  290   4  2   9.4   5.2
  6250  13.4  56.1  295  10  5   5.0   2.7 |  15.7  60.3  295   4  2  10.7   5.9
  6000  13.7  56.7  290   7  4   4.7   2.6 |  16.5  61.7  295   4  2  11.2   6.1
  5750  14.0  57.2  275   5  3   4.5   2.4 |  17.3  63.1  295   4  2  10.3   5.7
  5500  14.4  57.9  250   3  2   9.0   4.9 |  18.2  64.8  295   4  2  16.0   8.8

           05/19/2016 at 1500 MDT          |       05/19/2016 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +22.9  LI... -1.3               | K index... +26.8  LI... -1.8
CAPE... +279.4  CIN... -13.4               | CAPE... +304.2  CIN... -15.7
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -59.6 -75.3  270  21 11  -0.1  -0.1 | -59.6 -75.3  270  22 12   0.2   0.1
 45000 -59.8 -75.6  275  22 12  -0.9  -0.5 | -59.4 -74.9  285  22 11  -1.0  -0.5
 40000 -62.5 -80.5  300  19 10  -1.7  -0.9 | -62.7 -80.9  305  26 13  -2.0  -1.1
 38000 -60.1 -76.2  310  19 10   6.8   3.7 | -60.3 -76.5  300  26 13   7.0   3.9
 36000 -56.0 -68.8  320  21 11   6.8   3.7 | -56.1 -69.0  295  25 13   7.0   3.9
 34000 -51.6 -60.9  330  23 12   8.3   4.6 | -51.5 -60.7  295  24 12   9.0   4.9
 32000 -46.7 -52.1  335  23 12   8.3   4.6 | -46.1 -51.0  295  23 12   9.0   4.9
 30000 -41.7 -43.1  340  21 11   8.5   4.7 | -40.0 -40.0  295  22 11   9.1   5.0
 29000 -38.5 -37.3  335  18  9   8.5   4.6 | -37.3 -35.1  295  20 11   9.1   5.0
 28000 -36.0 -32.8  335  15  8   8.5   4.6 | -34.6 -30.3  290  19 10   9.1   5.0
 27000 -33.5 -28.3  330  12  6   8.2   4.5 | -32.0 -25.6  290  18  9   7.8   4.3
 26000 -31.0 -23.8  330  10  5   8.2   4.5 | -29.7 -21.5  290  16  8   7.9   4.3
 25000 -28.5 -19.3  325   8  4   8.2   4.5 | -27.3 -17.1  295  14  7   7.9   4.3
 24000 -26.1 -15.0  320   7  4   7.8   4.3 | -25.0 -13.0  295  12  6   7.2   3.9
 23000 -23.8 -10.8  320   7  4   7.8   4.3 | -22.9  -9.2  295  11  6   7.1   3.9
 22000 -21.4  -6.5  325   7  3   7.9   4.3 | -20.7  -5.3  300  10  5   7.1   3.9
 21000 -19.1  -2.4  320   7  3   7.6   4.2 | -18.6  -1.5  300   9  5   7.1   3.9
 20000 -16.8   1.8  310   7  3   7.7   4.2 | -16.5   2.3  305  10  5   7.2   3.9
 19500 -15.7   3.7  305   7  4   7.7   4.2 | -15.4   4.3  305  10  5   7.2   4.0
 19000 -14.5   5.9  300   7  4   7.8   4.3 | -14.4   6.1  305  11  6   7.3   4.0
 18500 -13.5   7.7  295   8  4   6.5   3.6 | -13.4   7.9  305  11  6   6.9   3.8
 18000 -12.5   9.5  295   9  5   6.6   3.6 | -12.4   9.7  305  11  6   6.9   3.8
 17500 -11.6  11.1  295  10  5   6.8   3.7 | -11.4  11.5  305  11  6   6.8   3.7
 17000 -10.6  12.9  290  11  6   7.0   3.9 | -10.5  13.1  305  10  5   6.2   3.4
 16500  -9.6  14.7  290  12  6   6.9   3.8 |  -9.6  14.7  300   8  4   6.1   3.4
 16000  -8.5  16.7  290  13  6   8.5   4.6 |  -8.6  16.5  295   6  3   7.4   4.1
 15500  -7.3  18.9  290  13  7   8.4   4.6 |  -7.0  19.4  255   3  1   7.4   4.1
 15000  -5.5  22.1  285  12  6   7.8   4.3 |  -5.9  21.4  210   3  1   8.2   4.5
 14500  -4.4  24.1  280  10  5   7.8   4.3 |  -4.7  23.5  185   4  2   8.2   4.5
 14000  -3.2  26.2  275   9  5   7.7   4.2 |  -3.5  25.7  175   5  3   8.5   4.6
 13500  -2.0  28.4  260   7  4   7.7   4.2 |  -2.3  27.9  165   6  3   8.5   4.7
 13000  -0.9  30.4  245   6  3   8.0   4.4 |  -1.0  30.2  160   7  4   8.7   4.7
 12500   0.4  32.7  230   5  3   8.1   4.4 |   0.2  32.4  160   7  4   8.7   4.8
 12000   1.6  34.9  210   5  3   8.6   4.7 |   1.5  34.7  160   7  4   9.1   5.0
 11500   2.9  37.2  195   4  2   8.8   4.8 |   2.9  37.2  165   7  3   9.2   5.1
 11000   4.1  39.4  185   4  2   7.9   4.4 |   4.2  39.6  170   6  3   8.6   4.7
 10500   5.2  41.4  175   4  2   6.9   3.8 |   5.5  41.9  175   6  3   7.8   4.3
 10250   5.7  42.3  175   4  2  10.5   5.8 |   6.1  43.0  180   5  3  10.5   5.8
 10000   6.5  43.7  170   3  2  11.6   6.4 |   7.0  44.6  190   5  3  10.8   5.9
  9750   7.2  45.0  165   3  2   8.7   4.8 |   7.6  45.7  195   5  3   8.2   4.5
  9500   7.9  46.2  165   3  2   9.5   5.2 |   8.3  46.9  205   5  3   9.0   5.0
  9250   8.5  47.3  165   3  2   9.3   5.1 |   8.9  48.0  210   5  3   8.3   4.5
  9000   9.3  48.7  160   3  2   9.6   5.3 |   9.5  49.1  215   6  3   8.6   4.7
  8750  10.0  50.0  160   3  2   9.8   5.4 |  10.2  50.4  220   6  3   9.4   5.2
  8500  10.7  51.3  160   3  2   9.6   5.2 |  10.8  51.4  225   6  3   8.8   4.9
  8250  11.4  52.5  160   3  1  10.5   5.7 |  11.5  52.7  230   7  3  10.4   5.7
  8000  12.2  54.0  160   3  1  10.7   5.9 |  12.4  54.3  235   7  4  10.7   5.9
  7750  13.0  55.4  165   3  1   9.6   5.3 |  13.1  55.6  235   7  4   8.8   4.8
  7500  13.7  56.7  165   3  1   9.3   5.1 |  13.7  56.7  240   8  4   8.3   4.6
  7250  14.4  57.9  165   3  1  10.2   5.6 |  14.3  57.7  240   8  4   9.6   5.3
  7000  15.2  59.4  165   3  1  10.8   5.9 |  15.1  59.2  240   8  4  10.7   5.9
  6750  15.9  60.6  165   3  1   9.8   5.4 |  15.9  60.6  245   8  4   9.4   5.2
  6500  16.6  61.9  165   2  1   9.7   5.3 |  16.5  61.7  245   8  4   9.1   5.0
  6250  17.4  63.3  170   2  1  10.9   6.0 |  17.3  63.1  245   8  4  10.4   5.7
  6000  18.2  64.8  170   2  1  11.8   6.5 |  18.1  64.6  245   8  4  11.3   6.2
  5750  19.1  66.4  170   2  1  10.1   5.5 |  18.9  66.0  250   8  4   9.9   5.4
  5500  19.9  67.8  175   2  1  14.5   8.0 |  19.6  67.3  250   8  4  11.1   6.1
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
                   Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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