Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

000
UXUS97 KBOU 291222
SRGBOU

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
0522 MST Thursday, January 29, 2015

This forecast is for Thursday, January 29, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 43.1 F/6.1 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 0 ft/min (0.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 10602 ft MSL (5317 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 47.0 F/8.8 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1200 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 7964 ft MSL (2678 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 01/30....... Poor

Wave Soaring Index............................. Fair
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1700 MST)......... Decreasing clouds
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... 15127 ft MSL (9842 ft AGL)
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1700 MST)................ Neither
Potential height of wave....................... 36041 ft MSL (30756 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Friday 01/30.......... Poor

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:10:04 / 17:14:10 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 4 min 5 sec (604 min 5 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:12:29 MST... 32.42 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 01/29/2015 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. 6884 ft MSL (1599 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 11337 ft MSL (6052 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 11074 ft MSL (5788 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +9.6
K index......................... +7.5

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -59.6 -75.3   285   30   15   7.7   4.2  101.4 214.6    53.1      M    M
 45000  -55.8 -68.4   295   39   20   4.7   2.6   81.8 179.2    45.0      M    M
 40000  -54.8 -66.6   285   64   33  -6.3  -3.5   60.3 140.5    34.0      M    M
 38000  -56.1 -69.0   285   86   44  -5.0  -2.7   49.6 121.3    27.8      M    M
 36000  -55.8 -68.4   275  105   54   4.4   2.4   41.4 106.5    22.8      M    M
 34000  -52.5 -62.5   265   99   51   8.7   4.8   37.6  99.7    20.8      M    M
 32000  -47.3 -53.1   270   93   48   8.7   4.8   36.6  97.9    20.6      M    M
 30000  -41.5 -42.7   280   88   45   8.7   4.8   35.9  96.6    20.7      M    M
 29000  -38.9 -38.0   280   86   44   6.6   3.6   35.4  95.7    20.5      M    M
 28000  -37.1 -34.8   280   75   39   4.4   2.4   33.9  93.0    19.7      M    M
 27000  -36.3 -33.3   280   65   33   3.0   1.6   31.2  88.1    17.8      M    M
 26000  -35.3 -31.5   285   54   28   5.7   3.1   28.7  83.7    16.0      M    M
 25000  -32.8 -27.0   285   44   23   8.2   4.5   28.3  82.9    15.9      M    M
 24000  -30.4 -22.7   290   43   22   7.6   4.2   27.6  81.8    15.5      M    M
 23000  -27.6 -17.7   290   40   21   8.8   4.9   27.4  81.3    15.5      M    M
 22000  -25.4 -13.7   290   37   19   6.6   3.6   26.6  79.8    15.0      M    M
 21000  -23.6 -10.5   290   35   18   3.8   2.1   25.2  77.3    14.0      M    M
 20000  -22.7  -8.9   290   32   17   6.9   3.8   22.9  73.1    12.2      M    M
 19500  -21.4  -6.5   290   32   16   7.8   4.3   22.6  72.7    12.0      M    M
 19000  -20.3  -4.5   290   31   16   7.9   4.4   22.3  72.1    11.8      M    M
 18500  -19.2  -2.6   290   31   16   6.3   3.5   21.8  71.3    11.5      M    M
 18000  -18.2  -0.8   290   29   15   6.9   3.8   21.3  70.3    11.0      M    M
 17500  -17.2   1.0   290   28   14   7.1   3.9   20.8  69.4    10.7      M    M
 17000  -16.1   3.0   295   27   14   7.0   3.9   20.3  68.6    10.3      M    M
 16500  -15.1   4.8   295   26   13   6.3   3.5   19.9  67.8    10.0      M    M
 16000  -14.4   6.1   295   24   12   4.2   2.3   19.1  66.3     9.3      M    M
 15500  -13.7   7.3   295   23   12   3.4   1.9   18.1  64.7     8.5      M    M
 15000  -15.7   3.7   295   21   11   0.6   0.4   13.6  56.5     4.4      M    M
 14500  -14.6   5.7   295   20   10   6.9   3.8   13.2  55.8     4.1      M    M
 14000  -13.5   7.7   295   19   10   7.4   4.0   12.8  55.1     3.8      M    M
 13500  -12.4   9.7   295   20   10   7.4   4.1   12.4  54.4     3.4      M    M
 13000  -11.3  11.7   295   21   11   7.4   4.1   12.0  53.7     3.0      M    M
 12500  -10.2  13.6   295   21   11   7.6   4.2   11.7  53.0     2.7      M    M
 12000   -9.4  15.1   295   21   11   0.5   0.3   11.1  51.9     2.1      M    M
 11500   -9.2  15.4   295   16    8   6.1   3.4    9.7  49.5     0.8      M    M
 11000   -8.2  17.2   295   11    6   6.4   3.5    9.2  48.6     0.3      M    M
 10500   -7.3  18.9   290    6    3   4.5   2.5    8.7  47.6    -0.2    360  1.8
 10250   -7.1  19.2   300    4    2   0.3   0.2    8.1  46.6    -0.7    346  1.8
 10000   -6.9  19.6   325    4    2   3.0   1.6    7.4  45.3    -1.2    334  1.7
  9750   -6.5  20.3   355    4    2   7.3   4.0    7.1  44.7    -1.5    313  1.6
  9500   -6.0  21.2   020    5    2   5.3   2.9    6.8  44.3    -1.7    290  1.5
  9250   -5.7  21.7   035    6    3   3.7   2.0    6.4  43.5    -2.2    275  1.4
  9000   -5.4  22.3   040    8    4   7.6   4.2    6.0  42.8    -2.6    257  1.3
  8750   -4.7  23.5   035    7    4  10.1   5.5    6.0  42.8    -2.7    230  1.2
  8500   -4.0  24.8   035    6    3   8.8   4.8    6.0  42.8    -2.8    203  1.0
  8250   -3.4  25.9   030    5    3   8.3   4.5    5.9  42.6    -2.9    177  0.9
  8000   -2.8  27.0   020    4    2   8.4   4.6    5.8  42.4    -3.0    151  0.8
  7750   -2.2  28.0   010    5    2   8.4   4.6    5.7  42.2    -3.1    125  0.6
  7500   -1.6  29.1   005    5    3   8.4   4.6    5.6  42.0    -3.2     99  0.5
  7250   -0.9  30.4   360    6    3   8.4   4.6    5.5  41.8    -3.3     73  0.4
  7000   -0.3  31.5   355    7    4   8.4   4.6    5.4  41.7    -3.4     47  0.2
  6750    0.3  32.5   350    7    4   8.4   4.6    5.3  41.5    -3.6     21  0.1
  6500    0.9  33.6   350    8    4   8.4   4.6    5.1  41.3    -3.7      M    M
  6250    1.6  34.9   345    8    4   8.3   4.6    5.0  41.1    -3.8      M    M
  6000    2.2  36.0   345    9    5   8.6   4.7    4.9  40.9    -3.9      M    M
  5750    2.8  37.0   345    6    3   7.6   4.2    4.8  40.7    -4.1      M    M
  5500    3.3  37.9   345    3    2   6.0   3.3    4.6  40.3    -4.3      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           01/29/2015 at 0800 MST          |       01/29/2015 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... +11.5  LI... +6.2               | K index... -7.1  LI... +4.9
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -1.1                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.8
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -60.8 -77.4  290  39 20   3.3   1.8 | -61.0 -77.8  290  36 19   2.5   1.4
 45000 -55.8 -68.4  285  52 27   0.9   0.5 | -57.3 -71.1  285  49 25   0.6   0.3
 40000 -55.8 -68.4  285  71 37  -0.0  -0.0 | -57.6 -71.7  275  76 39  -0.2  -0.1
 38000 -55.1 -67.2  285  83 43   2.0   1.1 | -56.4 -69.5  275  87 45   3.3   1.8
 36000 -53.9 -65.0  280  96 50   2.0   1.1 | -54.4 -65.9  275  98 50   3.3   1.8
 34000 -52.0 -61.6  280 104 54   7.2   4.0 | -51.7 -61.1  275 104 54   7.7   4.2
 32000 -47.7 -53.9  280  93 48   7.3   4.0 | -47.0 -52.6  280  96 49   7.8   4.3
 30000 -42.7 -44.9  280  79 41   7.5   4.1 | -42.0 -43.6  285  83 43   6.7   3.7
 29000 -40.5 -40.9  285  72 37   7.5   4.1 | -40.0 -40.0  285  74 38   6.7   3.7
 28000 -38.2 -36.8  285  66 34   7.5   4.1 | -38.0 -36.4  285  65 34   6.7   3.7
 27000 -36.1 -33.0  290  59 30   6.0   3.3 | -36.0 -32.8  290  57 29   6.2   3.4
 26000 -34.3 -29.7  290  54 28   5.9   3.3 | -34.1 -29.4  290  51 26   6.3   3.4
 25000 -32.5 -26.5  290  49 25   5.9   3.3 | -32.2 -26.0  295  45 23   6.3   3.4
 24000 -30.7 -23.3  295  43 22   7.0   3.9 | -30.3 -22.5  295  40 21   7.3   4.0
 23000 -28.5 -19.3  295  40 21   7.5   4.1 | -28.0 -18.4  300  37 19   7.5   4.1
 22000 -26.2 -15.2  295  37 19   7.5   4.1 | -25.8 -14.4  300  35 18   7.5   4.1
 21000 -24.0 -11.2  300  34 17   6.3   3.5 | -23.6 -10.5  305  32 17   6.3   3.4
 20000 -22.1  -7.8  300  30 16   6.4   3.5 | -21.7  -7.1  310  28 15   6.4   3.5
 19500 -21.2  -6.2  300  29 15   6.5   3.5 | -20.7  -5.3  310  27 14   6.4   3.5
 19000 -20.2  -4.4  300  27 14   6.5   3.6 | -19.8  -3.6  315  25 13   6.4   3.5
 18500 -19.3  -2.7  300  26 13   5.7   3.1 | -18.8  -1.8  320  23 12   6.4   3.5
 18000 -18.5  -1.3  305  24 12   5.6   3.0 | -17.9  -0.2  325  21 11   6.4   3.5
 17500 -17.6   0.3  305  23 12   5.0   2.8 | -16.9   1.6  330  19 10   6.2   3.4
 17000 -17.0   1.4  310  22 11   4.1   2.2 | -16.0   3.2  340  18  9   6.0   3.3
 16500 -16.5   2.3  310  21 11   4.1   2.2 | -15.1   4.8  345  17  9   6.0   3.3
 16000 -15.8   3.6  315  20 10   5.7   3.1 | -13.9   7.0  350  16  8   5.1   2.8
 15500 -14.6   5.7  315  19 10   6.0   3.3 | -13.2   8.2  350  15  8   5.3   2.9
 15000 -13.6   7.5  320  18  9   7.2   4.0 | -12.4   9.7  345  13  7   5.6   3.1
 14500 -12.5   9.5  320  16  8   7.2   3.9 | -11.6  11.1  340  12  6   5.8   3.2
 14000 -11.5  11.3  325  15  8   6.5   3.5 | -10.8  12.6  335  11  6   5.8   3.2
 13500 -10.6  12.9  325  15  8   6.5   3.6 | -10.0  14.0  340  10  5   5.9   3.2
 13000  -9.6  14.7  325  14  7   6.8   3.7 |  -9.1  15.6  345   9  4   5.9   3.2
 12500  -8.6  16.5  320  14  7   7.0   3.9 |  -8.3  17.1  355   8  4   6.0   3.3
 12000  -7.9  17.8  320  13  7   3.3   1.8 |  -7.3  18.9  360   8  4   7.6   4.2
 11500  -7.3  18.9  315  13  7   3.9   2.1 |  -6.2  20.8  005   8  4   6.9   3.8
 11000  -7.5  18.5  310  11  6  -5.0  -2.8 |  -6.0  21.2  005   8  4  -2.2  -1.2
 10500  -8.1  17.4  300   9  5  -3.0  -1.7 |  -6.2  20.8  355   7  3  -0.8  -0.4
 10250  -8.1  17.4  295   8  4   4.9   2.7 |  -6.2  20.8  350   6  3   2.1   1.1
 10000  -7.5  18.5  300   7  4   8.9   4.9 |  -6.0  21.2  345   5  3   3.0   1.7
  9750  -7.0  19.4  310   6  3   5.0   2.8 |  -5.8  21.6  340   4  2   0.9   0.5
  9500  -6.7  19.9  340   4  2   3.8   2.1 |  -5.8  21.6  310   2  1   2.4   1.3
  9250  -6.4  20.5  005   4  2   4.7   2.6 |  -5.4  22.3  295   1  1   5.3   2.9
  9000  -6.0  21.2  020   5  3   4.6   2.5 |  -5.1  22.8  000   0  0   5.3   2.9
  8750  -5.7  21.7  030   6  3   4.7   2.6 |  -4.7  23.5  135   1  0   4.6   2.5
  8500  -5.4  22.3  030   7  4   4.4   2.4 |  -4.4  24.1  110   2  1   4.2   2.3
  8250  -5.0  23.0  030   7  4   4.3   2.3 |  -4.0  24.8  105   3  1   4.6   2.6
  8000  -4.7  23.5  030   7  4   4.2   2.3 |  -3.7  25.3  105   3  2   4.2   2.3
  7750  -4.4  24.1  030   7  4   4.7   2.6 |  -3.4  25.9  105   3  2   5.5   3.0
  7500  -4.0  24.8  030   7  3   4.4   2.4 |  -2.9  26.8  110   3  2   5.8   3.2
  7250  -3.8  25.2  020   6  3   3.5   1.9 |  -2.6  27.3  125   3  1   4.9   2.7
  7000  -3.5  25.7  010   6  3   3.9   2.2 |  -2.2  28.0  145   2  1   4.5   2.5
  6750  -3.1  26.4  005   6  3   6.1   3.3 |  -1.9  28.6  165   2  1   6.1   3.4
  6500  -2.6  27.3  360   6  3   7.8   4.3 |  -1.3  29.7  190   2  1   8.7   4.8
  6250  -2.0  28.4  355   6  3   7.5   4.1 |  -0.6  30.9  205   3  1   8.8   4.8
  6000  -1.4  29.5  350   7  3   8.0   4.4 |   0.0  32.0  215   3  2   9.4   5.2
  5750  -0.8  30.6  345   6  3   8.7   4.8 |   0.9  33.6  220   3  1  13.8   7.6
  5500  -0.2  31.6  335   4  2   8.9   4.9 |   2.1  35.8  220   3  1  20.5  11.3

           01/29/2015 at 1400 MST          |       01/29/2015 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... -23.9  LI... +5.2               | K index... -18.6  LI... +5.2
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.3                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.5
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -61.3 -78.3  285  39 20   2.5   1.4 | -61.4 -78.5  285  38 20   2.9   1.6
 45000 -57.6 -71.7  280  52 27   0.6   0.3 | -57.1 -70.8  280  50 26   0.5   0.2
 40000 -57.7 -71.9  275  76 39  -0.1  -0.0 | -57.9 -72.2  270  84 43  -0.6  -0.3
 38000 -56.4 -69.5  270  84 43   3.5   1.9 | -56.7 -70.1  270  90 46   3.4   1.8
 36000 -54.3 -65.7  270  92 47   3.4   1.9 | -54.7 -66.5  270  91 47   3.4   1.8
 34000 -51.5 -60.7  270  95 49   8.0   4.4 | -51.9 -61.4  270  89 46   7.8   4.3
 32000 -46.6 -51.9  275  88 45   8.2   4.5 | -47.2 -53.0  275  79 41   8.0   4.4
 30000 -41.9 -43.4  280  79 41   6.7   3.7 | -42.4 -44.3  280  68 35   8.1   4.4
 29000 -39.4 -38.9  285  70 36   6.7   3.7 | -39.4 -38.9  280  59 31   8.1   4.4
 28000 -37.4 -35.3  285  63 32   6.7   3.7 | -36.9 -34.4  280  53 27   8.1   4.4
 27000 -35.4 -31.7  290  56 29   6.3   3.4 | -34.7 -30.5  285  46 24   5.8   3.2
 26000 -33.5 -28.3  295  50 26   6.3   3.5 | -32.9 -27.2  285  41 21   6.0   3.3
 25000 -31.6 -24.9  295  43 22   6.3   3.5 | -31.1 -24.0  290  37 19   6.0   3.3
 24000 -29.7 -21.5  300  37 19   7.1   3.9 | -29.2 -20.6  295  32 16   6.9   3.8
 23000 -27.5 -17.5  300  33 17   7.2   3.9 | -27.1 -16.8  300  27 14   7.0   3.8
 22000 -25.4 -13.7  305  28 15   7.2   3.9 | -25.0 -13.0  300  23 12   7.0   3.8
 21000 -23.4 -10.1  310  24 12   5.8   3.2 | -23.0  -9.4  305  18  9   5.8   3.2
 20000 -21.6  -6.9  325  18  9   5.9   3.2 | -21.3  -6.3  305  12  6   5.9   3.2
 19500 -20.7  -5.3  330  15  8   5.9   3.2 | -20.4  -4.7  305   9  5   5.9   3.2
 19000 -19.8  -3.6  340  13  7   5.8   3.2 | -19.5  -3.1  310   6  3   5.7   3.1
 18500 -18.9  -2.0  350  12  6   6.9   3.8 | -18.5  -1.3  315   4  2   7.4   4.1
 18000 -17.9  -0.2  355  11  5   6.8   3.7 | -17.4   0.7  330   2  1   7.3   4.0
 17500 -16.8   1.8  005  10  5   6.1   3.4 | -16.3   2.7  070   1  1   6.4   3.5
 17000 -16.0   3.2  010   9  5   5.6   3.1 | -15.5   4.1  105   1  1   5.7   3.1
 16500 -15.2   4.6  015   9  5   6.0   3.3 | -14.7   5.5  125   2  1   5.8   3.2
 16000 -14.0   6.8  025   9  5   9.6   5.3 | -13.6   7.5  130   3  2   7.7   4.2
 15500 -12.6   9.3  035   9  5  10.1   5.5 | -12.5   9.5  130   4  2   7.6   4.2
 15000 -11.6  11.1  040   8  4   2.8   1.5 | -11.4  11.5  130   6  3   6.9   3.8
 14500 -10.9  12.4  050   5  3   3.4   1.9 |  -9.8  14.4  130   7  3   6.4   3.5
 14000 -10.3  13.5  045   3  2   4.7   2.6 |  -9.1  15.6  145   6  3   3.6   2.0
 13500  -9.6  14.7  010   1  1   5.0   2.7 |  -8.6  16.5  170   5  3   4.0   2.2
 13000  -8.9  16.0  305   1  0   5.4   3.0 |  -8.0  17.6  180   6  3   4.1   2.2
 12500  -8.2  17.2  215   1  0   5.7   3.1 |  -7.5  18.5  190   7  3   4.5   2.5
 12000  -7.3  18.9  185   1  0   6.8   3.7 |  -6.8  19.8  190   7  4   6.1   3.3
 11500  -6.3  20.7  145   1  0   6.3   3.5 |  -5.9  21.4  190   7  4   6.0   3.3
 11000  -5.8  21.6  160   1  1   2.0   1.1 |  -5.3  22.5  195   7  4   3.9   2.2
 10500  -5.5  22.1  180   2  1   2.2   1.2 |  -4.7  23.5  200   7  4   4.1   2.2
 10250  -5.4  22.3  185   3  1   1.4   0.8 |  -4.4  24.1  200   7  4   3.2   1.7
 10000  -5.3  22.5  190   4  2   2.1   1.2 |  -4.2  24.4  205   8  4   4.3   2.3
  9750  -5.0  23.0  190   5  3   4.0   2.2 |  -3.7  25.3  205   8  4   7.6   4.2
  9500  -4.7  23.5  190   7  3   4.5   2.5 |  -3.2  26.2  210   8  4   5.2   2.9
  9250  -4.4  24.1  185   7  4   4.2   2.3 |  -3.0  26.6  205   9  4   1.3   0.7
  9000  -4.1  24.6  185   8  4   4.4   2.4 |  -3.0  26.6  195   9  5   1.4   0.8
  8750  -3.7  25.3  180   9  5   6.0   3.3 |  -2.9  26.8  185  10  5   2.1   1.1
  8500  -3.2  26.2  175   9  5   6.3   3.5 |  -2.6  27.3  175  11  6   6.1   3.3
  8250  -2.8  27.0  170   9  4   5.6   3.1 |  -2.0  28.4  170  11  6   8.7   4.8
  8000  -2.4  27.7  165   8  4   5.4   3.0 |  -1.4  29.5  165  11  6   8.0   4.4
  7750  -2.0  28.4  160   7  4   7.6   4.2 |  -0.8  30.6  160  11  6  10.1   5.5
  7500  -1.3  29.7  155   7  3   9.7   5.3 |   0.0  32.0  160  10  5  10.2   5.6
  7250  -0.6  30.9  155   6  3   9.1   5.0 |   0.7  33.3  160  10  5   9.1   5.0
  7000   0.1  32.2  155   6  3   9.3   5.1 |   1.4  34.5  155  10  5   9.1   5.0
  6750   0.8  33.4  150   6  3  10.0   5.5 |   2.1  35.8  155   9  5   9.1   5.0
  6500   1.5  34.7  150   6  3  10.4   5.7 |   2.8  37.0  150   9  5   9.4   5.2
  6250   2.3  36.1  150   6  3  10.5   5.8 |   3.5  38.3  150   8  4   9.4   5.1
  6000   3.1  37.6  150   5  3   9.7   5.3 |   4.2  39.6  145   8  4   9.1   5.0
  5750   3.9  39.0  150   5  3  12.7   7.0 |   4.8  40.6  140   7  4   7.4   4.0
  5500   5.1  41.2  150   5  3  20.2  11.1 |   5.2  41.4  140   5  3   5.4   3.0
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
                   Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.