Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
UXUS97 KBOU 010209
SRGBOU

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
2009 MDT Friday, July 31, 2015

This forecast is for Saturday, August 1, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 82.9 F/28.3 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 834 ft/min (4.2 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 14778 ft MSL (9471 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 89.0 F/32.1 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1115 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 10337 ft MSL (5030 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 08/02....... Excellent

Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1800 MDT)......... No change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... None
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1800 MDT)................ Neither
Potential height of wave....................... 15863 ft MSL (10556 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Sunday 08/02.......... Poor

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:58:17 / 20:13:39 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 15 min 22 sec (855 min 22 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:05:44 MDT... 68.16 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 08/01/2015 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 16092 ft MSL (10785 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 15664 ft MSL (10357 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 15569 ft MSL (10263 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -1.1
K index......................... +22.9

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -67.7 -89.9   275   34   17   1.5   0.8      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -63.0 -81.4   275   45   23   6.5   3.6      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -52.1 -61.8   280   50   26   8.9   4.9      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -46.8 -52.2   280   46   24   8.9   4.9      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -41.5 -42.7   280   43   22   8.4   4.6      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -36.7 -34.1   280   39   20   8.1   4.4      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -31.9 -25.4   285   36   18   8.3   4.6      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -27.5 -17.5   290   30   16   7.2   4.0   49.3 120.7    13.4      M    M
 29000  -25.3 -13.5   295   27   14   7.2   4.0   48.3 119.0    12.8      M    M
 28000  -22.8  -9.0   300   24   12   5.9   3.2   47.0 116.7    12.0      M    M
 27000  -21.0  -5.8   300   21   11   6.0   3.3   45.5 113.9    10.9      M    M
 26000  -19.3  -2.7   300   18    9   6.1   3.3   44.1 111.4     9.9      M    M
 25000  -17.5   0.5   300   15    8   7.2   3.9   42.9 109.3     8.9      M    M
 24000  -15.1   4.8   295   15    8   7.7   4.2   42.1 107.7     8.4      M    M
 23000  -12.8   9.0   290   15    8   7.8   4.3   41.4 106.5     7.9      M    M
 22000  -10.5  13.1   285   15    8   5.4   3.0   40.7 105.2     7.4      M    M
 21000   -9.3  15.3   290   13    7   4.4   2.4   38.6 101.5     5.7      M    M
 20000   -8.1  17.4   295   12    6   4.6   2.5   36.8  98.3     4.0      M    M
 19500   -7.5  18.5   295   11    6   4.9   2.7   36.0  96.7     3.2      M    M
 19000   -6.7  19.9   300   10    5   6.4   3.5   35.3  95.5     2.6      M    M
 18500   -5.7  21.7   305   10    5   6.3   3.5   34.7  94.5     2.1      M    M
 18000   -4.8  23.4   315    9    5   7.3   4.0   34.2  93.5     1.7      M    M
 17500   -3.6  25.5   310    8    4   7.8   4.3   33.8  92.9     1.3      M    M
 17000   -2.5  27.5   310    8    4   8.0   4.4   33.5  92.3     1.0      M    M
 16500   -1.3  29.7   310    7    4   8.8   4.8   33.3  91.9     0.7      M    M
 16000   -0.0  32.0   310    6    3   8.8   4.8   33.1  91.6     0.6      M    M
 15500    1.2  34.2   310    6    3   8.5   4.7   33.0  91.3     0.4      M    M
 15000    3.1  37.6   285    3    2   8.5   4.7   32.6  90.7     0.0      M    M
 14500    4.3  39.7   275    3    2   8.0   4.4   32.4  90.3    -0.2    794  4.0
 14000    5.5  41.9   280    3    2   8.1   4.4   32.1  89.8    -0.5    744  3.8
 13500    6.6  43.9   285    3    2   7.8   4.3   31.8  89.3    -0.8    694  3.5
 13000    7.8  46.0   285    3    2   7.7   4.2   31.5  88.7    -1.1    645  3.3
 12500    8.9  48.0   290    3    2   7.7   4.2   31.2  88.1    -1.4    596  3.0
 12000   10.0  50.0   275    3    1   7.7   4.2   30.8  87.5    -1.7    548  2.8
 11500   11.2  52.2   255    3    1   7.7   4.2   30.5  86.9    -2.1    499  2.5
 11000   12.3  54.1   230    3    2   7.4   4.1   30.2  86.4    -2.4    450  2.3
 10500   13.5  56.3   215    4    2   3.5   1.9   29.9  85.8    -2.7    401  2.0
 10250   13.6  56.5   210    4    2   5.5   3.0   29.3  84.7    -3.3    390  2.0
 10000   14.4  57.9   205    5    3  12.0   6.6   29.3  84.8    -3.2    357  1.8
  9750   15.3  59.5   200    7    3  11.1   6.1   29.4  85.0    -3.1    325  1.7
  9500   16.1  61.0   200    8    4   8.2   4.5   29.5  85.1    -3.0    293  1.5
  9250   16.5  61.7   195    8    4   5.2   2.8   29.2  84.5    -3.3    273  1.4
  9000   17.0  62.6   190    9    5   7.9   4.3   28.9  84.1    -3.6    252  1.3
  8750   17.6  63.7   185   10    5   8.7   4.8   28.8  83.9    -3.7    227  1.2
  8500   18.1  64.6   185   10    5   7.2   4.0   28.7  83.7    -3.9    203  1.0
  8250   18.5  65.3   185   10    5   6.2   3.4   28.5  83.2    -4.3    183  0.9
  8000   18.9  66.0   185   10    5   6.7   3.7   28.2  82.8    -4.6    163  0.8
  7750   19.4  66.9   185   10    5   6.4   3.5   28.0  82.4    -4.9    142  0.7
  7500   19.8  67.6   185   10    5   5.3   2.9   27.7  81.8    -5.2    123  0.6
  7250   20.1  68.2   185   10    5   4.5   2.5   27.3  81.1    -5.6    106  0.5
  7000   20.4  68.7   185   10    5   5.5   3.0   26.9  80.5    -6.1     89  0.5
  6750   20.8  69.4   185   11    5   2.9   1.6   26.6  79.8    -6.4     72  0.4
  6500   20.7  69.3   190   11    6  -1.6  -0.9   25.8  78.5    -7.2     66  0.3
  6250   20.5  68.9   195   11    6  -1.0  -0.6   25.0  77.0    -8.2     64  0.3
  6000   20.3  68.5   205   11    6  -4.3  -2.3   24.1  75.4    -9.1     63  0.3
  5750   19.6  67.3   205   10    5 -10.0  -5.5   22.8  73.1   -10.6     77  0.4
  5500   18.6  65.5   200    7    4  -9.2  -5.1   21.3  70.4   -12.3     99  0.5

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           08/01/2015 at 0900 MDT          |       08/01/2015 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... +23.9  LI... -3.1               | K index... +15.6  LI... -3.8
CAPE... +239.4  CIN... -191.9              | CAPE... +515.1  CIN... -56.4
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -66.9 -88.4  290  32 17   1.0   0.6 | -67.2 -89.0  280  34 18   0.7   0.4
 45000 -62.6 -80.7  285  46 23   6.6   3.6 | -63.0 -81.4  275  45 23   7.0   3.8
 40000 -51.9 -61.4  275  48 25   8.0   4.4 | -51.7 -61.1  270  47 24   8.2   4.5
 38000 -47.1 -52.8  275  45 23   8.0   4.4 | -46.8 -52.2  275  44 23   8.2   4.5
 36000 -42.3 -44.1  280  43 22   8.2   4.5 | -41.9 -43.4  285  42 22   8.4   4.6
 34000 -37.3 -35.1  280  41 21   8.4   4.6 | -36.8 -34.2  285  37 19   8.5   4.7
 32000 -32.2 -26.0  285  39 20   9.1   5.0 | -31.7 -25.1  290  33 17   8.9   4.9
 30000 -27.7 -17.9  285  33 17   7.4   4.1 | -27.1 -16.8  290  30 16   7.6   4.2
 29000 -25.5 -13.9  285  29 15   7.4   4.1 | -24.2 -11.6  290  28 15   7.6   4.2
 28000 -22.9  -9.2  290  25 13   6.0   3.3 | -22.1  -7.8  290  26 14   6.1   3.4
 27000 -21.0  -5.8  290  23 12   6.1   3.4 | -20.2  -4.4  290  24 12   6.2   3.4
 26000 -19.2  -2.6  290  21 11   6.2   3.4 | -18.4  -1.1  285  21 11   6.3   3.4
 25000 -17.4   0.7  290  18  9   6.6   3.6 | -16.5   2.3  285  18  9   6.9   3.8
 24000 -15.4   4.3  295  17  9   6.9   3.8 | -14.3   6.3  290  17  9   7.3   4.0
 23000 -13.3   8.1  300  17  9   6.9   3.8 | -12.2  10.0  290  17  9   7.3   4.0
 22000 -11.3  11.7  305  16  8   5.3   2.9 | -10.1  13.8  295  16  8   5.5   3.0
 21000 -10.0  14.0  310  15  8   4.5   2.5 |  -8.6  16.5  300  15  8   4.7   2.6
 20000  -8.6  16.5  310  14  7   4.6   2.5 |  -7.1  19.2  310  14  7   4.8   2.6
 19500  -8.0  17.6  315  13  7   4.9   2.7 |  -6.4  20.5  315  14  7   4.8   2.6
 19000  -7.1  19.2  315  13  7   7.4   4.1 |  -5.7  21.7  320  13  7   4.5   2.5
 18500  -6.1  21.0  315  13  7   7.4   4.1 |  -5.0  23.0  325  14  7   4.6   2.5
 18000  -5.0  23.0  320  13  7   8.9   4.9 |  -4.4  24.1  330  14  7   5.7   3.1
 17500  -3.7  25.3  325  12  6   9.5   5.2 |  -3.5  25.7  335  14  7   6.3   3.5
 17000  -2.3  27.9  335  11  5   9.4   5.1 |  -2.6  27.3  335  15  8   6.6   3.6
 16500  -1.1  30.0  340  11  5   7.9   4.4 |  -1.5  29.3  340  15  7   8.7   4.8
 16000   0.1  32.2  340  11  6   8.0   4.4 |  -0.3  31.5  340  14  7   8.7   4.8
 15500   1.3  34.3  340  11  6   8.8   4.9 |   1.6  34.9  345  13  7   8.7   4.8
 15000   3.3  37.9  340  10  5   8.9   4.9 |   2.9  37.2  350  13  6   8.7   4.8
 14500   4.6  40.3  340   9  5   8.9   4.9 |   4.2  39.6  355  12  6   9.1   5.0
 14000   5.9  42.6  335   8  4   8.9   4.9 |   5.4  41.7  355  12  6   9.2   5.0
 13500   7.2  45.0  330   8  4   8.3   4.6 |   6.7  44.1  360  12  6   8.8   4.8
 13000   8.4  47.1  320   7  3   8.2   4.5 |   8.0  46.4  360  11  6   8.8   4.8
 12500   9.6  49.3  310   6  3   8.0   4.4 |   9.2  48.6  360  10  5   7.9   4.3
 12000  10.7  51.3  295   5  3   7.9   4.3 |  10.2  50.4  360   9  4   7.4   4.0
 11500  11.9  53.4  275   4  2   7.8   4.3 |  11.3  52.3  360   7  3   7.1   3.9
 11000  13.0  55.4  255   4  2   7.4   4.0 |  12.3  54.1  360   4  2   6.7   3.7
 10500  14.1  57.4  240   4  2   2.9   1.6 |  13.4  56.1  355   2  1   3.1   1.7
 10250  14.2  57.6  235   4  2   4.8   2.6 |  13.5  56.3  005   1  1   4.5   2.4
 10000  14.9  58.8  225   4  2  12.1   6.6 |  14.1  57.4  000   0  0  10.1   5.5
  9750  15.7  60.3  215   4  2  10.8   5.9 |  14.8  58.6  180   2  1   9.1   5.0
  9500  16.5  61.7  205   4  2   8.5   4.7 |  15.4  59.7  180   3  1   7.1   3.9
  9250  16.9  62.4  205   3  2   6.0   3.3 |  15.8  60.4  175   3  2   5.6   3.0
  9000  17.5  63.5  200   3  2   8.1   4.5 |  16.3  61.3  170   4  2   8.6   4.7
  8750  18.0  64.4  200   3  1   8.7   4.8 |  16.9  62.4  170   4  2   9.5   5.2
  8500  18.6  65.5  200   2  1   7.2   3.9 |  17.5  63.5  170   4  2   8.8   4.8
  8250  19.1  66.4  210   2  1   6.1   3.3 |  18.1  64.6  165   4  2   8.3   4.6
  8000  19.5  67.1  215   2  1   6.4   3.5 |  18.6  65.5  165   4  2   9.2   5.0
  7750  19.9  67.8  220   2  1   5.9   3.3 |  19.3  66.7  160   3  2  10.0   5.5
  7500  20.3  68.5  225   2  1   4.8   2.6 |  20.0  68.0  160   3  2  10.0   5.5
  7250  20.5  68.9  230   2  1   4.1   2.3 |  20.7  69.3  160   3  2   9.9   5.4
  7000  20.8  69.4  235   2  1   4.3   2.3 |  21.5  70.7  160   3  1  10.4   5.7
  6750  21.0  69.8  240   2  1   2.7   1.5 |  22.3  72.1  160   3  1  10.9   6.0
  6500  21.1  70.0  240   2  1   1.5   0.8 |  23.0  73.4  160   3  1  10.5   5.8
  6250  21.1  70.0  235   2  1   0.9   0.5 |  23.8  74.8  165   2  1  10.1   5.5
  6000  21.1  70.0  230   2  1   3.6   2.0 |  24.6  76.3  165   2  1  11.1   6.1
  5750  21.6  70.9  240   2  1  11.5   6.3 |  25.6  78.1  165   2  1  17.2   9.4
  5500  22.7  72.9  230   2  1  16.2   8.9 |  27.1  80.8  160   2  1  24.5  13.4

           08/01/2015 at 1500 MDT          |       08/01/2015 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +16.7  LI... -3.5               | K index... +18.8  LI... -3.0
CAPE... +323.0  CIN... -22.8               | CAPE... +183.5  CIN... -6.5
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -66.4 -87.5  280  42 22   1.1   0.6 | -68.0 -90.4  285  41 21   0.8   0.4
 45000 -62.3 -80.1  275  56 29   6.0   3.3 | -63.5 -82.3  275  56 29   7.4   4.0
 40000 -52.2 -62.0  265  56 29   8.5   4.7 | -51.6 -60.9  270  55 28   8.5   4.6
 38000 -47.1 -52.8  265  53 27   8.5   4.7 | -46.6 -51.9  270  50 26   8.5   4.6
 36000 -42.0 -43.6  265  49 25   8.4   4.6 | -41.5 -42.7  275  45 23   8.5   4.7
 34000 -37.0 -34.6  270  44 23   8.3   4.5 | -36.4 -33.5  275  40 20   8.5   4.7
 32000 -32.1 -25.8  275  40 20   9.0   5.0 | -31.3 -24.3  280  35 18   9.0   4.9
 30000 -27.5 -17.5  280  34 18   7.5   4.1 | -26.8 -16.2  285  31 16   7.5   4.1
 29000 -25.3 -13.5  285  32 16   7.5   4.1 | -24.0 -11.2  290  29 15   7.5   4.1
 28000 -22.6  -8.7  285  29 15   6.2   3.4 | -21.8  -7.2  290  27 14   6.4   3.5
 27000 -20.7  -5.3  290  26 13   6.3   3.5 | -19.9  -3.8  295  25 13   6.5   3.5
 26000 -18.8  -1.8  290  23 12   6.3   3.5 | -17.9  -0.2  295  24 12   6.5   3.5
 25000 -17.0   1.4  295  21 11   6.3   3.5 | -16.0   3.2  300  22 12   6.4   3.5
 24000 -15.1   4.8  295  20 10   6.4   3.5 | -14.1   6.6  305  21 11   6.4   3.5
 23000 -13.3   8.1  295  19 10   6.4   3.5 | -12.3   9.9  310  20 10   6.5   3.6
 22000 -11.4  11.5  300  18  9   5.4   3.0 | -10.4  13.3  320  19 10   5.6   3.1
 21000 -10.0  14.0  315  16  8   4.8   2.6 |  -9.0  15.8  320  18  9   5.1   2.8
 20000  -8.5  16.7  330  15  8   4.8   2.7 |  -7.6  18.3  320  17  9   5.2   2.8
 19500  -7.8  18.0  340  15  8   5.2   2.9 |  -6.9  19.6  320  16  8   5.3   2.9
 19000  -6.7  19.9  345  15  8   9.1   5.0 |  -6.0  21.2  325  16  8   6.9   3.8
 18500  -5.4  22.3  345  15  8   9.0   4.9 |  -5.1  22.8  330  16  8   6.8   3.7
 18000  -4.2  24.4  350  15  8   8.4   4.6 |  -4.1  24.6  330  16  8   7.4   4.0
 17500  -2.9  26.8  350  14  7   8.1   4.5 |  -2.9  26.8  340  16  8   7.8   4.3
 17000  -1.7  28.9  355  13  6   8.1   4.5 |  -1.7  28.9  345  17  9   7.8   4.3
 16500  -0.4  31.3  355  12  6   8.7   4.8 |  -0.5  31.1  350  17  9   7.2   3.9
 16000   0.9  33.6  360  12  6   8.7   4.7 |   0.6  33.1  355  17  9   7.3   4.0
 15500   2.1  35.8  360  11  6   8.4   4.6 |   2.3  36.1  360  15  8   7.4   4.0
 15000   4.0  39.2  010  10  5   8.4   4.6 |   3.4  38.1  010  13  7   7.3   4.0
 14500   5.3  41.5  015   9  5   8.4   4.6 |   4.5  40.1  015  10  5   7.5   4.1
 14000   6.5  43.7  025   8  4   8.4   4.6 |   5.6  42.1  030   8  4   7.5   4.1
 13500   7.8  46.0  035   7  4   8.5   4.6 |   6.7  44.1  050   6  3   8.3   4.6
 13000   9.0  48.2  045   6  3   8.6   4.7 |   7.8  46.0  065   5  2   8.7   4.8
 12500  10.2  50.4  055   6  3   9.0   4.9 |   9.0  48.2  085   4  2   9.1   5.0
 12000  11.5  52.7  060   6  3   9.3   5.1 |  10.3  50.5  090   4  2   9.3   5.1
 11500  12.8  55.0  060   6  3   9.2   5.1 |  11.6  52.9  095   4  2   9.4   5.1
 11000  14.0  57.2  065   5  3   8.9   4.9 |  13.0  55.4  095   3  2   9.2   5.1
 10500  15.2  59.4  070   5  2   5.2   2.9 |  14.4  57.9  090   3  2   5.8   3.2
 10250  15.4  59.7  075   5  2   6.1   3.4 |  14.6  58.3  090   3  2   7.2   3.9
 10000  16.2  61.2  075   4  2  11.9   6.5 |  15.5  59.9  090   3  1  12.7   7.0
  9750  16.9  62.4  075   4  2  10.8   5.9 |  16.4  61.5  090   3  1  11.8   6.5
  9500  17.7  63.9  080   4  2   9.5   5.2 |  17.2  63.0  085   3  1   9.8   5.4
  9250  18.3  64.9  080   4  2   8.8   4.8 |  17.8  64.0  085   2  1   8.3   4.5
  9000  19.0  66.2  075   4  2  10.7   5.9 |  18.5  65.3  080   2  1  10.4   5.7
  8750  19.8  67.6  075   4  2  11.0   6.1 |  19.3  66.7  080   2  1  10.9   6.0
  8500  20.6  69.1  075   4  2  10.4   5.7 |  20.1  68.2  075   2  1  10.1   5.6
  8250  21.3  70.3  075   4  2   9.9   5.4 |  20.8  69.4  075   2  1   9.2   5.0
  8000  22.1  71.8  075   3  2   9.9   5.4 |  21.6  70.9  070   2  1  10.2   5.6
  7750  22.8  73.0  075   3  2   9.8   5.4 |  22.3  72.1  065   2  1  11.0   6.0
  7500  23.5  74.3  075   3  2  10.0   5.5 |  23.1  73.6  065   2  1  10.0   5.5
  7250  24.3  75.7  075   3  2  10.2   5.6 |  23.8  74.8  060   2  1   9.5   5.2
  7000  25.0  77.0  070   3  2  10.0   5.5 |  24.5  76.1  060   2  1   9.8   5.4
  6750  25.8  78.4  070   3  2  10.1   5.6 |  25.3  77.5  055   2  1  10.3   5.7
  6500  26.6  79.9  070   3  2  10.7   5.9 |  26.1  79.0  055   2  1  10.5   5.8
  6250  27.4  81.3  070   3  1  11.5   6.3 |  26.9  80.4  050   1  1  10.8   5.9
  6000  28.2  82.8  070   3  1   9.5   5.2 |  27.6  81.7  040   1  1   9.8   5.4
  5750  28.9  84.0  065   3  1  14.3   7.8 |  28.4  83.1  035   1  1  11.6   6.3
  5500  30.5  86.9  065   3  1  28.4  15.6 |  29.4  84.9  035   1  1  18.1   9.9
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
                   Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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