Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
UXUS97 KBOU 181323
SRGBOU

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
0623 MST Tuesday, November 18, 2014

This forecast is for Tuesday, November 18, 2014:

If the trigger temperature of 44.2 F/6.8 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 847 ft/min (4.3 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 15328 ft MSL (10043 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 54.0 F/12.7 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1015 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1400 MST
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 12464 ft MSL (7179 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Wednesday 11/19.... Fair

Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1700 MST)......... No change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... 16119 ft MSL (10834 ft AGL)
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1700 MST)................ Weak NVA
Potential height of wave....................... 16611 ft MSL (11326 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Wednesday 11/19....... Fair

Remarks... Strong, gusty and erratic winds over the front range foothills today
           and this evening.

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:47:38 / 16:41:38 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 9 hr 54 min 1 sec (594 min 1 sec)
Altitude of sun at 11:44:49 MST... 30.94 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 11/18/2014 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. 5758 ft MSL (473 ft AGL)
Additional freezing level....... 6580 ft MSL (1295 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 18036 ft MSL (12751 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 17201 ft MSL (11916 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +3.9
K index......................... -2.8

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -59.6 -75.3   315   56   29   6.7   3.7  105.5 221.9    52.6      M    M
 45000  -57.5 -71.5   325   59   31   1.2   0.6   82.7 180.9    42.7      M    M
 40000  -57.7 -71.9   310   49   25   3.8   2.1   59.0 138.3    30.4      M    M
 38000  -57.1 -70.8   310   43   22   2.5   1.4   51.2 124.1    26.0      M    M
 36000  -56.4 -69.5   335   50   26  -9.9  -5.4   43.4 110.2    21.4      M    M
 34000  -58.1 -72.6   350   63   33   4.2   2.3   32.6  90.7    14.3      M    M
 32000  -55.8 -68.4   350   62   32   5.1   2.8   27.4  81.3    11.0      M    M
 30000  -52.4 -62.3   345   59   30   4.6   2.5   23.2  73.8     8.2      M    M
 29000  -51.0 -59.8   345   60   31   7.8   4.3   21.1  70.0     6.7      M    M
 28000  -48.3 -54.9   345   61   31   9.0   4.9   20.7  69.2     6.5      M    M
 27000  -45.6 -50.1   340   62   32   9.0   4.9   20.4  68.7     6.3      M    M
 26000  -42.9 -45.2   340   63   32   9.0   4.9   20.2  68.3     6.2      M    M
 25000  -40.2 -40.4   340   64   33   9.0   4.9   20.1  68.2     6.3      M    M
 24000  -37.5 -35.5   335   60   31   9.0   4.9   19.7  67.5     6.0      M    M
 23000  -34.8 -30.6   335   56   29   9.4   5.1   19.5  67.0     5.9      M    M
 22000  -32.3 -26.1   335   54   28   7.8   4.3   18.8  65.8     5.4      M    M
 21000  -30.0 -22.0   330   51   26   7.8   4.3   18.1  64.5     4.9      M    M
 20000  -27.7 -17.9   330   48   25   6.3   3.5   17.5  63.4     4.4      M    M
 19500  -27.0 -16.6   330   47   24   5.0   2.8   16.6  61.9     3.7      M    M
 19000  -26.2 -15.2   325   47   24   4.6   2.5   15.8  60.4     3.0      M    M
 18500  -25.3 -13.5   325   46   24   9.7   5.3   15.2  59.4     2.5      M    M
 18000  -23.8 -10.8   325   45   23   9.0   4.9   15.2  59.4     2.5      M    M
 17500  -22.4  -8.3   320   44   23   9.2   5.0   15.1  59.2     2.4      M    M
 17000  -21.0  -5.8   320   43   22   9.1   5.0   15.0  59.1     2.4      M    M
 16500  -19.7  -3.5   320   44   23   8.2   4.5   14.9  58.9     2.3      M    M
 16000  -19.0  -2.2   325   45   23   2.7   1.5   14.1  57.3     1.5      M    M
 15500  -18.2  -0.8   330   42   22   4.3   2.4   12.4  54.4     0.1      M    M
 15000  -17.6   0.3   335   40   21   4.4   2.4   11.5  52.7    -0.7    817  4.1
 14500  -17.0   1.4   335   38   20   5.5   3.0   10.6  51.1    -1.6    783  4.0
 14000  -15.9   3.4   340   37   19   7.4   4.1   10.2  50.4    -1.9    736  3.7
 13500  -14.8   5.4   340   37   19   7.4   4.1    9.8  49.7    -2.3    688  3.5
 13000  -13.7   7.3   340   36   19   7.4   4.1    9.4  49.0    -2.7    640  3.2
 12500  -12.5   9.5   340   36   19   7.4   4.1    9.1  48.4    -3.0    591  3.0
 12000  -11.4  11.5   340   35   18   7.4   4.1    8.7  47.7    -3.4    543  2.8
 11500  -10.3  13.5   335   32   16   7.4   4.1    8.3  47.0    -3.8    495  2.5
 11000   -9.2  15.4   330   28   14   7.4   4.1    7.9  46.3    -4.2    447  2.3
 10500   -8.1  17.4   325   25   13   7.4   4.1    7.6  45.6    -4.5    399  2.0
 10250   -7.5  18.5   325   23   12   7.4   4.1    7.4  45.3    -4.7    375  1.9
 10000   -7.0  19.4   320   22   11   8.1   4.4    7.2  45.0    -4.9    350  1.8
  9750   -6.3  20.7   320   21   11   8.2   4.5    7.1  44.8    -5.0    324  1.6
  9500   -5.7  21.7   320   20   10   9.2   5.1    7.0  44.6    -5.1    298  1.5
  9250   -5.1  22.8   315   19   10   5.0   2.8    6.9  44.4    -5.3    272  1.4
  9000   -5.0  23.0   315   18    9   0.3   0.1    6.3  43.3    -5.9    262  1.3
  8750   -4.8  23.4   310   19   10   6.1   3.3    5.7  42.2    -6.5    249  1.3
  8500   -4.1  24.6   305   21   11   9.6   5.3    5.6  42.1    -6.6    221  1.1
  8250   -3.5  25.7   305   22   12   8.7   4.8    5.6  42.0    -6.6    194  1.0
  8000   -2.8  27.0   300   24   12   8.9   4.9    5.5  41.9    -6.7    167  0.8
  7750   -2.3  27.9   300   24   12   5.0   2.8    5.3  41.6    -6.9    143  0.7
  7500   -2.1  28.2   300   24   12   0.9   0.5    4.8  40.6    -7.5    130  0.7
  7250   -1.9  28.6   300   23   12   6.1   3.3    4.2  39.6    -8.1    117  0.6
  7000   -1.2  29.8   300   23   12  10.1   5.5    4.2  39.5    -8.1     89  0.5
  6750   -0.5  31.1   295   20   10   9.3   5.1    4.1  39.4    -8.2     61  0.3
  6500    0.2  32.4   290   16    8   8.4   4.6    4.1  39.4    -8.2     33  0.2
  6250    0.5  32.9   275   13    7  -0.2  -0.1    3.7  38.7    -8.6     14  0.1
  6000    0.4  32.7   260   11    6   1.4   0.8    2.8  37.1    -9.5     11  0.1
  5750    0.3  32.5   250    9    5 -16.9  -9.2    2.0  35.5   -10.4      8  0.0
  5500   -2.9  26.8   240    7    4 -65.4 -35.9   -1.9  28.5   -14.3     95  0.5

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           11/18/2014 at 0800 MST          |       11/18/2014 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... -2.1  LI... +5.4                | K index... -9.9  LI... +5.9
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -1.1                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -60.1 -76.2  320  39 20   0.3   0.2 | -59.8 -75.6  315  37 19   0.8   0.5
 45000 -59.6 -75.3  325  44 23   0.3   0.2 | -58.5 -73.3  320  45 23   0.8   0.4
 40000 -57.6 -71.7  330  49 25   1.4   0.8 | -58.1 -72.6  325  51 26   0.2   0.1
 38000 -57.1 -70.8  330  50 26  -1.7  -0.9 | -58.1 -72.6  330  53 27  -1.4  -0.8
 36000 -57.9 -72.2  340  52 27  -1.5  -0.8 | -58.9 -74.0  330  51 26  -1.3  -0.7
 34000 -58.8 -73.8  345  55 28  -2.1  -1.1 | -59.8 -75.6  330  49 25   1.6   0.9
 32000 -55.2 -67.4  350  58 30   6.5   3.6 | -55.6 -68.1  330  48 25   7.1   3.9
 30000 -51.3 -60.3  355  61 31   7.5   4.1 | -51.3 -60.3  330  48 25   8.1   4.4
 29000 -48.9 -56.0  355  59 30   8.0   4.4 | -48.8 -55.8  330  48 24   8.4   4.6
 28000 -46.5 -51.7  355  57 29   8.0   4.4 | -46.3 -51.3  335  47 24   8.4   4.6
 27000 -44.1 -47.4  355  55 28   7.9   4.3 | -43.8 -46.8  335  47 24   8.4   4.6
 26000 -41.6 -42.9  350  53 28   8.4   4.6 | -41.2 -42.2  335  46 24   8.5   4.7
 25000 -39.1 -38.4  350  52 27   8.4   4.6 | -38.7 -37.7  335  45 23   8.5   4.7
 24000 -36.6 -33.9  345  51 26   8.4   4.6 | -36.1 -33.0  335  45 23   8.5   4.7
 23000 -34.0 -29.2  345  50 26   8.6   4.7 | -33.5 -28.3  335  44 23   9.0   4.9
 22000 -31.4 -24.5  340  50 26   8.6   4.7 | -30.8 -23.4  335  43 22   9.0   4.9
 21000 -28.8 -19.8  340  50 26   8.5   4.7 | -28.1 -18.6  335  42 22   8.9   4.9
 20000 -26.6 -15.9  340  49 25   7.3   4.0 | -25.5 -13.9  335  42 22   8.4   4.6
 19500 -25.5 -13.9  340  49 25   7.3   4.0 | -24.3 -11.7  335  43 22   8.4   4.6
 19000 -24.4 -11.9  335  48 25   7.3   4.0 | -23.0  -9.4  335  43 22   8.4   4.6
 18500 -23.3  -9.9  335  48 25   7.3   4.0 | -21.7  -7.1  335  43 22   8.3   4.6
 18000 -22.3  -8.1  335  47 24   5.9   3.2 | -20.6  -5.1  335  42 22   7.1   3.9
 17500 -21.4  -6.5  335  45 23   6.0   3.3 | -19.5  -3.1  335  41 21   7.3   4.0
 17000 -20.5  -4.9  335  44 22   5.9   3.2 | -18.5  -1.3  335  39 20   5.9   3.2
 16500 -19.6  -3.3  335  42 22   5.9   3.2 | -17.2   1.0  335  37 19   5.6   3.1
 16000 -18.3  -0.9  335  39 20   6.2   3.4 | -16.4   2.5  335  34 18   5.0   2.7
 15500 -17.4   0.7  335  38 19   6.2   3.4 | -15.7   3.7  335  32 17   5.0   2.7
 15000 -16.4   2.5  335  36 19   6.3   3.4 | -14.9   5.2  335  30 15   6.1   3.4
 14500 -15.5   4.1  335  34 18   6.3   3.5 | -13.9   7.0  335  28 14   6.5   3.5
 14000 -14.6   5.7  335  33 17   6.8   3.7 | -12.9   8.8  335  26 13   6.9   3.8
 13500 -13.5   7.7  340  31 16   7.2   3.9 | -11.9  10.6  340  25 13   7.1   3.9
 13000 -12.4   9.7  340  30 15   7.8   4.3 | -10.8  12.6  340  23 12   7.8   4.3
 12500 -11.2  11.8  340  29 15   8.3   4.6 |  -9.5  14.9  340  22 11   8.5   4.6
 12000  -9.9  14.2  340  28 15   8.7   4.8 |  -8.3  17.1  340  20 10   9.0   4.9
 11500  -8.6  16.5  340  27 14   9.0   4.9 |  -6.9  19.6  340  19 10   9.5   5.2
 11000  -7.2  19.0  340  26 14   9.2   5.1 |  -5.4  22.3  340  18  9   9.5   5.2
 10500  -5.8  21.6  340  25 13   9.8   5.4 |  -4.0  24.8  335  18  9  10.1   5.5
 10250  -5.1  22.8  340  24 13   7.1   3.9 |  -3.3  26.1  335  18  9   6.9   3.8
 10000  -4.7  23.5  340  24 12   5.6   3.0 |  -2.9  26.8  335  18  9   6.2   3.4
  9750  -4.2  24.4  340  24 12   9.9   5.5 |  -2.3  27.9  330  18  9  10.5   5.8
  9500  -3.3  26.1  335  23 12  12.2   6.7 |  -1.4  29.5  330  19 10  11.4   6.3
  9250  -2.5  27.5  335  22 12   9.9   5.4 |  -0.6  30.9  325  19 10  10.1   5.5
  9000  -1.8  28.8  330  22 12   7.1   3.9 |   0.1  32.2  325  21 11   7.7   4.2
  8750  -1.3  29.7  330  23 12   7.6   4.2 |   0.6  33.1  320  22 11   7.2   4.0
  8500  -0.7  30.7  325  24 12   9.0   4.9 |   1.2  34.2  315  24 12   8.9   4.9
  8250  -0.1  31.8  320  25 13   6.3   3.4 |   1.8  35.2  310  26 13   4.4   2.4
  8000   0.3  32.5  315  27 14   4.2   2.3 |   1.8  35.2  305  29 15  -0.1  -0.1
  7750   0.6  33.1  310  29 15   3.6   2.0 |   1.7  35.1  300  31 16  -2.3  -1.3
  7500   0.7  33.3  305  31 16   0.1   0.0 |   1.4  34.5  295  33 17  -4.1  -2.3
  7250   0.5  32.9  300  32 17  -3.7  -2.0 |   1.2  34.2  290  33 17  -0.5  -0.3
  7000   0.2  32.4  295  32 17  -5.2  -2.9 |   1.2  34.2  285  30 16   0.3   0.2
  6750  -0.2  31.6  285  33 17  -4.4  -2.4 |   1.2  34.2  280  28 14   2.3   1.3
  6500  -0.6  30.9  280  31 16  -5.7  -3.1 |   1.5  34.7  275  26 13   3.3   1.8
  6250  -1.1  30.0  275  26 14  -7.7  -4.2 |   1.6  34.9  275  22 11   1.5   0.8
  6000  -1.6  29.1  270  22 11  -5.1  -2.8 |   1.7  35.1  270  19 10   2.6   1.4
  5750  -2.1  28.2  265  18 10 -10.9  -6.0 |   1.8  35.2  265  15  8   0.5   0.3
  5500  -3.7  25.3  255  13  7 -31.3 -17.2 |   1.6  34.9  255  11  6  -5.9  -3.3

           11/18/2014 at 1400 MST          |       11/18/2014 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... -9.7  LI... +3.1                | K index... +0.9  LI... +1.6
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.5                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... 0.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -60.7 -77.3  320  43 22   1.7   0.9 | -61.5 -78.7  310  38 19   1.9   1.0
 45000 -58.2 -72.8  320  47 24   1.7   0.9 | -58.7 -73.7  320  45 23   1.8   1.0
 40000 -58.8 -73.8  330  64 33  -0.8  -0.4 | -59.9 -75.8  330  82 42  -1.1  -0.6
 38000 -59.1 -74.4  335  70 36   0.6   0.3 | -60.0 -76.0  335  96 49   2.2   1.2
 36000 -58.7 -73.7  340  70 36   0.6   0.3 | -58.6 -73.5  340 103 53   2.3   1.3
 34000 -58.3 -72.9  345  71 36   1.1   0.6 | -57.2 -71.0  345 112 57   3.3   1.8
 32000 -55.0 -67.0  345  65 34   6.0   3.3 | -53.5 -64.3  340  96 49   6.4   3.5
 30000 -51.4 -60.5  345  60 31   7.1   3.9 | -49.6 -57.3  330  80 41   7.3   4.0
 29000 -48.9 -56.0  340  58 30   8.6   4.7 | -47.2 -53.0  325  74 38   8.2   4.5
 28000 -46.3 -51.3  340  56 29   8.6   4.7 | -44.1 -47.4  325  68 35   8.2   4.5
 27000 -43.1 -45.6  335  53 27   8.6   4.7 | -41.7 -43.1  320  64 33   8.2   4.5
 26000 -40.5 -40.9  335  51 26   8.6   4.7 | -39.3 -38.7  320  59 31   7.7   4.2
 25000 -37.9 -36.2  330  50 26   8.6   4.7 | -37.0 -34.6  315  56 29   7.7   4.2
 24000 -35.4 -31.7  325  49 25   8.7   4.8 | -34.7 -30.5  315  52 27   7.8   4.3
 23000 -32.8 -27.0  320  46 24   8.4   4.6 | -32.4 -26.3  310  48 25   7.6   4.2
 22000 -30.3 -22.5  315  42 22   8.4   4.6 | -30.2 -22.4  315  44 23   7.6   4.2
 21000 -27.8 -18.0  310  39 20   7.9   4.4 | -27.9 -18.2  315  41 21   7.4   4.1
 20000 -25.6 -14.1  315  36 19   7.1   3.9 | -25.8 -14.4  315  39 20   7.0   3.8
 19500 -24.6 -12.3  315  34 18   7.1   3.9 | -24.8 -12.6  315  37 19   7.0   3.8
 19000 -23.5 -10.3  315  33 17   7.1   3.9 | -23.7 -10.7  315  36 19   7.0   3.9
 18500 -22.5  -8.5  320  31 16   7.1   3.9 | -22.7  -8.9  315  35 18   7.2   4.0
 18000 -21.4  -6.5  320  30 16   6.8   3.7 | -21.5  -6.7  320  35 18   7.9   4.3
 17500 -20.4  -4.7  320  29 15   6.7   3.7 | -20.4  -4.7  320  34 17   7.7   4.2
 17000 -19.4  -2.9  320  28 15   7.1   3.9 | -19.1  -2.4  320  33 17   9.3   5.1
 16500 -18.3  -0.9  320  27 14   7.1   3.9 | -17.7   0.1  320  31 16   9.3   5.1
 16000 -17.2   1.0  325  26 14   7.8   4.3 | -16.3   2.7  320  30 15   9.4   5.1
 15500 -16.0   3.2  325  25 13   8.2   4.5 | -14.9   5.2  320  29 15   9.4   5.2
 15000 -14.8   5.4  325  24 12   8.4   4.6 | -13.5   7.7  320  29 15   9.5   5.2
 14500 -13.5   7.7  325  22 12   8.7   4.8 | -11.3  11.7  320  28 14   9.6   5.3
 14000 -11.5  11.3  330  21 11   8.9   4.9 |  -9.9  14.2  320  27 14   8.9   4.9
 13500 -10.2  13.6  330  20 10   9.0   4.9 |  -8.6  16.5  320  27 14   8.6   4.7
 13000  -8.8  16.2  335  20 10   9.4   5.2 |  -7.4  18.7  320  27 14   8.7   4.8
 12500  -7.4  18.7  335  19 10   9.7   5.3 |  -6.0  21.2  320  27 14   8.8   4.8
 12000  -5.9  21.4  335  19 10   9.2   5.1 |  -4.7  23.5  320  27 14   8.5   4.7
 11500  -4.6  23.7  335  20 10   8.8   4.8 |  -3.5  25.7  320  30 15   8.1   4.5
 11000  -3.3  26.1  330  21 11   8.5   4.7 |  -2.3  27.9  320  32 17   7.3   4.0
 10500  -2.1  28.2  325  24 12   8.8   4.9 |  -1.3  29.7  320  34 17   7.0   3.9
 10250  -1.5  29.3  325  25 13   6.0   3.3 |  -0.9  30.4  320  34 18   4.0   2.2
 10000  -1.1  30.0  320  26 13   5.0   2.8 |  -0.7  30.7  315  34 17   3.0   1.6
  9750  -0.6  30.9  320  28 14   7.0   3.8 |  -0.3  31.5  315  35 18   5.2   2.8
  9500  -0.2  31.6  315  30 15   6.8   3.7 |   0.0  32.0  315  36 19   4.7   2.6
  9250   0.3  32.5  310  32 16   5.9   3.2 |   0.4  32.7  310  37 19   4.5   2.5
  9000   0.6  33.1  310  34 17   2.1   1.1 |   0.6  33.1  310  38 20   2.2   1.2
  8750   0.7  33.3  305  35 18   0.0   0.0 |   0.7  33.3  305  38 20   0.5   0.3
  8500   0.6  33.1  300  37 19   0.1   0.0 |   0.7  33.3  305  38 20   0.6   0.3
  8250   0.6  33.1  295  38 20   0.7   0.4 |   0.7  33.3  300  38 20   0.7   0.4
  8000   0.7  33.3  290  37 19   1.7   0.9 |   0.8  33.4  300  37 19   0.9   0.5
  7750   0.8  33.4  290  35 18   3.6   2.0 |   0.8  33.4  295  35 18   1.2   0.6
  7500   1.1  34.0  285  32 17   5.2   2.9 |   0.9  33.6  295  32 16   1.5   0.8
  7250   1.5  34.7  285  30 15   7.0   3.9 |   1.1  34.0  290  29 15   4.6   2.5
  7000   2.1  35.8  285  28 14   8.2   4.5 |   1.5  34.7  290  27 14   6.5   3.6
  6750   2.7  36.9  285  26 13   8.4   4.6 |   2.0  35.6  290  24 12   7.2   3.9
  6500   3.3  37.9  285  24 12   6.7   3.7 |   2.5  36.5  290  23 12   7.0   3.8
  6250   3.7  38.7  285  21 11   4.3   2.3 |   2.9  37.2  285  20 10   5.0   2.8
  6000   4.0  39.2  285  18  9   5.3   2.9 |   3.3  37.9  285  17  9   5.8   3.2
  5750   4.3  39.7  280  15  8   3.5   1.9 |   3.7  38.7  285  15  7   5.0   2.7
  5500   4.3  39.7  280  11  6  -3.6  -1.9 |   3.9  39.0  280  11  6  -1.6  -0.9
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
                   Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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