Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
UXUS97 KBOU 230116
SRGBOU

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
1816 MST Sunday, February 22, 2015

This forecast is for Monday, February 23, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 25.5 F/-3.6 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 0 ft/min (0.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 8541 ft MSL (3234 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 22.0 F/-6.0 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... None
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 6969 ft MSL (1662 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Tuesday 02/24...... Poor

Wave Soaring Index............................. Fair
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1700 MST)......... No change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... 11963 ft MSL (6656 ft AGL)
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1700 MST)................ Neither
Potential height of wave....................... 33905 ft MSL (28598 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Tuesday 02/24......... Poor

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:41:23 / 17:43:29 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 2 min 7 sec (662 min 7 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:12:42 MST... 40.53 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 02/23/2015 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 18413 ft MSL (13106 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 9585 ft MSL (4278 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +20.5
K index......................... -2.7

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -56.5 -69.7   280   42   22   1.0   0.5      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -55.0 -67.0   270   47   24   1.1   0.6      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -54.5 -66.1   265   55   28   0.3   0.2      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -54.0 -65.2   260   61   31   2.0   1.1      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -52.6 -62.7   260   79   40   2.1   1.1      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -51.3 -60.3   255   94   48   3.5   1.9      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -48.5 -55.3   255   91   47   4.7   2.6      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -45.7 -50.3   250   88   46   4.9   2.7   32.3  90.2    28.2      M    M
 29000  -44.2 -47.6   250   84   43   5.0   2.7   30.2  86.4    27.0      M    M
 28000  -42.7 -44.9   250   80   41   5.0   2.7   28.3  83.0    25.9      M    M
 27000  -41.2 -42.2   250   76   39   4.9   2.7   26.6  79.8    24.8      M    M
 26000  -39.2 -38.6   250   73   37   7.5   4.1   25.3  77.6    24.2      M    M
 25000  -37.0 -34.6   250   70   36   7.6   4.1   24.4  76.0    23.8      M    M
 24000  -34.7 -30.5   255   66   34   7.6   4.2   23.7  74.6    23.4      M    M
 23000  -32.3 -26.1   250   59   30   8.3   4.6   23.0  73.4    23.2      M    M
 22000  -29.8 -21.6   250   48   25   8.4   4.6   22.4  72.4    23.0      M    M
 21000  -27.3 -17.1   240   38   19   8.7   4.8   22.0  71.6    22.9      M    M
 20000  -25.4 -13.7   245   34   18   5.9   3.2   20.8  69.5    22.1      M    M
 19500  -24.5 -12.1   250   34   18   5.9   3.2   20.1  68.2    21.7      M    M
 19000  -23.6 -10.5   255   34   18   5.9   3.2   19.4  67.0    21.2      M    M
 18500  -22.8  -9.0   260   35   18   5.9   3.3   18.8  65.9    20.8      M    M
 18000  -21.5  -6.7   265   32   16   5.4   3.0   17.7  63.9    20.0      M    M
 17500  -20.7  -5.3   265   28   15   5.1   2.8   17.0  62.6    19.5      M    M
 17000  -19.8  -3.6   270   26   14   7.9   4.3   16.4  61.6    19.1      M    M
 16500  -18.6  -1.5   275   26   13   7.7   4.2   16.1  61.0    18.9      M    M
 16000  -17.5   0.5   280   26   13   7.6   4.2   15.7  60.3    18.7      M    M
 15500  -16.3   2.7   280   24   12   7.5   4.1   15.4  59.7    18.4      M    M
 15000  -15.2   4.6   275   21   11   7.2   4.0   15.0  59.0    18.2      M    M
 14500  -14.2   6.4   280   20   10   6.7   3.7   14.5  58.1    17.8      M    M
 14000  -13.2   8.2   280   18    9   6.1   3.3   14.0  57.2    17.4      M    M
 13500  -12.6   9.3   275   17    9   3.9   2.2   13.2  55.7    16.7      M    M
 13000  -12.0  10.4   270   17    9   3.3   1.8   12.2  54.0    16.0      M    M
 12500  -11.9  10.6   265   16    8  -1.3  -0.7   10.7  51.3    14.7      M    M
 12000  -12.0  10.4   260   17    9  -1.9  -1.0    9.0  48.1    13.2      M    M
 11500  -12.8   9.0   250   15    8  -7.6  -4.2    6.5  43.7    10.9      M    M
 11000  -13.9   7.0   235   14    7  -6.9  -3.8    3.8  38.8     8.5      M    M
 10500  -14.8   5.4   215   12    6  -5.4  -3.0    1.2  34.2     6.2      M    M
 10250  -15.2   4.6   205   11    6  -6.3  -3.5    0.0  32.0     5.0      M    M
 10000  -15.6   3.9   195   10    5  -3.2  -1.8   -1.2  29.9     3.9      M    M
  9750  -15.6   3.9   190   10    5   0.3   0.2   -2.0  28.4     3.2      M    M
  9500  -15.6   3.9   185   10    5  -0.1  -0.1   -2.8  27.0     2.4      M    M
  9250  -15.6   3.9   175    9    5   0.5   0.3   -3.5  25.6     1.7      M    M
  9000  -15.5   4.1   175    9    5   1.6   0.9   -4.2  24.4     1.1      M    M
  8750  -15.4   4.3   175    9    4   2.3   1.3   -4.8  23.3     0.5      M    M
  8500  -15.2   4.6   175    8    4   2.2   1.2   -5.4  22.3    -0.1    243  1.2
  8250  -15.0   5.0   180    8    4   3.2   1.7   -6.0  21.2    -0.6    230  1.2
  8000  -14.8   5.4   190    8    4   3.9   2.2   -6.4  20.4    -1.1    214  1.1
  7750  -14.5   5.9   195    8    4   3.6   2.0   -6.9  19.6    -1.5    199  1.0
  7500  -14.2   6.4   200    8    4   3.7   2.0   -7.4  18.7    -2.0    183  0.9
  7250  -13.9   7.0   200    8    4   4.0   2.2   -7.8  17.9    -2.4    167  0.8
  7000  -13.6   7.5   195    9    5   3.8   2.1   -8.3  17.1    -2.9    151  0.8
  6750  -13.3   8.1   190   10    5   4.6   2.5   -8.7  16.3    -3.3    134  0.7
  6500  -12.9   8.8   185   11    6   5.3   2.9   -9.1  15.7    -3.7    115  0.6
  6250  -12.6   9.3   180   10    5   4.6   2.5   -9.4  15.0    -4.1     97  0.5
  6000  -12.2  10.0   175    9    5   5.8   3.2   -9.8  14.4    -4.4     79  0.4
  5750  -11.7  10.9   170    8    4   8.4   4.6  -10.0  14.0    -4.7     56  0.3
  5500  -11.0  12.2   165    6    3   9.3   5.1  -10.0  13.9    -4.7     28  0.1

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           02/23/2015 at 0800 MST          |       02/23/2015 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... +3.6  LI... +278.9              | K index... +6.6  LI... +276.7
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -56.7 -70.1  275  39 20   1.6   0.9 | -55.3 -67.5  275  35 18   2.0   1.1
 45000 -54.3 -65.7  265  41 21   1.7   0.9 | -52.2 -62.0  265  40 20   1.8   1.0
 40000 -53.9 -65.0  255  48 25   0.1   0.1 | -51.3 -60.3  250  43 22   0.6   0.3
 38000 -53.4 -64.1  255  52 27   2.1   1.2 | -51.2 -60.2  250  45 23  -0.7  -0.4
 36000 -52.1 -61.8  255  59 30   2.1   1.2 | -51.7 -61.1  255  45 23  -0.8  -0.4
 34000 -50.8 -59.4  255  66 34   2.3   1.3 | -52.1 -61.8  255  45 23  -0.7  -0.4
 32000 -49.1 -56.4  255  67 34   3.0   1.7 | -50.8 -59.4  260  46 24   2.6   1.4
 30000 -47.2 -53.0  255  68 35   3.6   2.0 | -49.0 -56.2  265  47 24   5.1   2.8
 29000 -45.4 -49.7  255  65 33   5.3   2.9 | -47.2 -53.0  265  48 25   5.8   3.2
 28000 -43.8 -46.8  255  63 32   5.3   2.9 | -45.5 -49.9  265  50 26   5.8   3.2
 27000 -42.2 -44.0  255  61 31   5.0   2.8 | -43.7 -46.7  260  51 26   5.6   3.1
 26000 -40.1 -40.2  255  58 30   7.8   4.3 | -41.4 -42.5  260  48 25   8.6   4.7
 25000 -37.8 -36.0  255  56 29   7.8   4.3 | -38.8 -37.8  255  44 23   8.6   4.7
 24000 -35.5 -31.9  255  54 28   7.8   4.3 | -36.3 -33.3  250  40 21   8.6   4.7
 23000 -33.0 -27.4  255  49 25   8.7   4.8 | -33.7 -28.7  255  39 20   8.7   4.8
 22000 -30.4 -22.7  255  43 22   8.7   4.8 | -31.1 -24.0  260  40 21   8.7   4.8
 21000 -27.8 -18.0  255  37 19   8.5   4.7 | -28.5 -19.3  265  42 22   8.6   4.7
 20000 -25.7 -14.3  260  37 19   6.8   3.7 | -26.1 -15.0  270  37 19   7.7   4.2
 19500 -24.7 -12.5  260  37 19   6.8   3.7 | -25.0 -13.0  270  34 18   7.7   4.2
 19000 -23.7 -10.7  260  38 19   6.8   3.7 | -23.8 -10.8  275  32 16   7.7   4.2
 18500 -22.6  -8.7  265  38 19   6.9   3.8 | -22.7  -8.9  280  29 15   7.7   4.2
 18000 -21.7  -7.1  265  35 18   5.6   3.1 | -21.6  -6.9  280  26 13   6.7   3.7
 17500 -20.9  -5.6  265  31 16   5.7   3.1 | -20.6  -5.1  285  22 11   6.7   3.7
 17000 -20.0  -4.0  270  27 14   6.8   3.7 | -19.6  -3.3  285  19 10   7.9   4.3
 16500 -18.9  -2.0  275  25 13   7.3   4.0 | -18.4  -1.1  285  19 10   8.2   4.5
 16000 -17.8  -0.0  275  22 12   7.7   4.2 | -17.1   1.2  290  19 10   8.2   4.5
 15500 -16.6   2.1  280  22 11   8.7   4.8 | -15.3   4.5  285  17  9   8.0   4.4
 15000 -14.7   5.5  280  22 11   8.2   4.5 | -14.1   6.6  285  15  8   8.3   4.6
 14500 -13.5   7.7  280  21 11   7.9   4.4 | -12.9   8.8  285  16  8   8.4   4.6
 14000 -12.3   9.9  275  19 10   7.4   4.0 | -11.6  11.1  280  16  8   8.0   4.4
 13500 -11.3  11.7  275  18  9   6.6   3.6 | -10.5  13.1  275  14  7   7.5   4.1
 13000 -10.4  13.3  275  16  8   6.9   3.3 |  -9.4  15.1  270  13  7   7.0   3.8
 12500  -9.6  14.7  275  15  8   4.5   2.4 |  -8.5  16.7  265  12  6   6.1   3.3
 12000  -9.0  15.8  275  13  7   3.4   1.9 |  -7.6  18.3  265  11  6   5.3   2.9
 11500  -8.8  16.2  270  12  6   0.3   0.1 |  -7.0  19.4  265  10  5   3.4   1.9
 11000  -8.7  16.3  270  11  6  -2.1  -1.2 |  -6.5  20.3  265   9  5   0.9   0.5
 10500  -9.6  14.7  260  10  5  -7.0  -3.8 |  -6.9  19.6  265   8  4  -3.4  -1.8
 10250 -10.2  13.6  255  10  5  -8.0  -4.4 |  -7.2  19.0  270   8  4  -4.2  -2.3
 10000 -10.7  12.7  250   9  5  -3.9  -2.2 |  -7.4  18.7  270   7  4  -1.0  -0.5
  9750 -10.9  12.4  245   9  5  -4.8  -2.7 |  -7.5  18.5  270   7  3  -3.7  -2.0
  9500 -11.5  11.3  230   9  5 -11.6  -6.3 |  -8.0  17.6  270   6  3  -9.1  -5.0
  9250 -12.4   9.7  215   9  5 -10.0  -5.5 |  -8.6  16.5  270   6  3  -7.6  -4.2
  9000 -12.9   8.8  210   9  5  -4.9  -2.7 |  -9.2  15.4  270   5  3  -6.0  -3.3
  8750 -13.2   8.2  205   9  5  -2.8  -1.5 |  -9.6  14.7  265   5  3  -5.8  -3.2
  8500 -13.4   7.9  200   9  4  -4.8  -2.6 | -10.0  14.0  260   4  2  -7.6  -4.2
  8250 -13.8   7.2  195   8  4  -3.0  -1.7 | -10.6  12.9  250   4  2  -7.2  -4.0
  8000 -13.9   7.0  195   7  4  -1.1  -0.6 | -11.1  12.0  245   3  2  -6.2  -3.4
  7750 -14.0   6.8  200   6  3  -1.5  -0.8 | -11.6  11.1  240   2  1  -7.3  -4.0
  7500 -14.0   6.8  200   6  3   0.4   0.2 | -12.1  10.2  235   2  1  -6.4  -3.5
  7250 -13.9   7.0  205   6  3   2.4   1.3 | -12.4   9.7  230   1  0  -2.1  -1.2
  7000 -13.7   7.3  210   6  3   2.5   1.4 | -12.5   9.5  000   0  0  -0.5  -0.3
  6750 -13.5   7.7  215   6  3   3.1   1.7 | -12.6   9.3  040   1  0  -1.1  -0.6
  6500 -13.2   8.2  220   6  3   5.6   3.1 | -12.5   9.5  070   1  0   5.7   3.1
  6250 -12.7   9.1  210   6  3   6.9   3.8 | -11.8  10.8  050   1  1  10.9   6.0
  6000 -12.3   9.9  205   6  3   6.3   3.5 | -11.1  12.0  035   2  1   9.1   5.0
  5750 -11.9  10.6  205   6  3   3.0   1.7 | -10.4  13.3  030   2  1  11.4   6.3
  5500 -11.9  10.6  205   3  2  -2.0  -1.1 |  -9.3  15.3  030   2  1  15.8   8.7

           02/23/2015 at 1400 MST          |       02/23/2015 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... +7.5  LI... +277.6              | K index... +5.6  LI... +278.0
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -55.9 -68.6  280  36 19   1.9   1.0 | -56.0 -68.8  280  35 18   1.4   0.8
 45000 -52.9 -63.2  275  41 21   1.7   0.9 | -53.8 -64.8  285  40 21   1.3   0.7
 40000 -51.7 -61.1  275  43 22   0.8   0.4 | -52.1 -61.8  285  39 20   1.1   0.6
 38000 -51.3 -60.3  275  43 22   0.7   0.4 | -51.4 -60.5  285  38 20   1.6   0.9
 36000 -50.9 -59.6  270  43 22   0.7   0.4 | -50.4 -58.7  285  36 19   1.6   0.9
 34000 -50.4 -58.7  270  42 22   0.7   0.4 | -49.5 -57.1  285  34 18   1.5   0.8
 32000 -49.4 -56.9  270  39 20   1.8   1.0 | -48.7 -55.7  290  29 15   1.4   0.7
 30000 -48.2 -54.8  275  35 18   4.2   2.3 | -47.7 -53.9  295  24 12   4.5   2.5
 29000 -46.7 -52.1  265  35 18   5.0   2.8 | -46.0 -50.8  295  26 14   5.5   3.0
 28000 -45.1 -49.2  255  36 18   5.1   2.8 | -44.3 -47.7  290  29 15   5.5   3.0
 27000 -43.6 -46.5  250  37 19   4.8   2.6 | -42.7 -44.9  290  32 17   5.3   2.9
 26000 -41.5 -42.7  250  35 18   8.4   4.6 | -40.5 -40.9  285  31 16   8.0   4.4
 25000 -39.0 -38.2  250  31 16   8.4   4.6 | -38.1 -36.6  280  29 15   8.0   4.4
 24000 -36.4 -33.5  250  27 14   8.4   4.6 | -35.8 -32.4  280  26 14   8.0   4.4
 23000 -33.8 -28.8  255  26 13   9.0   4.9 | -33.2 -27.8  280  25 13   8.9   4.9
 22000 -31.2 -24.2  265  26 14   9.0   4.9 | -30.5 -22.9  290  25 13   8.9   4.9
 21000 -28.5 -19.3  275  28 14   8.8   4.8 | -27.9 -18.2  300  26 13   8.8   4.8
 20000 -26.1 -15.0  280  26 14   7.7   4.2 | -25.7 -14.3  300  24 12   7.0   3.9
 19500 -25.0 -13.0  285  26 13   7.7   4.2 | -24.6 -12.3  305  23 12   7.0   3.9
 19000 -23.8 -10.8  285  25 13   7.7   4.2 | -23.5 -10.3  305  21 11   7.0   3.9
 18500 -22.7  -8.9  290  24 12   7.7   4.2 | -22.5  -8.5  310  20 10   7.0   3.9
 18000 -21.6  -6.9  290  22 11   7.5   4.1 | -21.4  -6.5  310  19 10   7.4   4.1
 17500 -20.4  -4.7  290  19 10   7.6   4.2 | -20.3  -4.5  310  18  9   7.4   4.1
 17000 -19.3  -2.7  290  16  8   7.3   4.0 | -19.2  -2.6  305  17  9   7.6   4.2
 16500 -18.3  -0.9  290  15  8   7.2   3.9 | -18.1  -0.6  305  16  8   7.7   4.2
 16000 -17.2   1.0  290  15  8   7.5   4.1 | -16.9   1.6  300  15  8   7.7   4.2
 15500 -15.4   4.3  285  14  7   8.3   4.6 | -15.3   4.5  300  15  8   7.5   4.1
 15000 -14.2   6.4  280  13  7   7.9   4.4 | -14.2   6.4  300  15  8   7.3   4.0
 14500 -13.0   8.6  280  13  7   7.7   4.2 | -13.1   8.4  300  15  8   7.2   4.0
 14000 -11.9  10.6  280  12  6   7.3   4.0 | -12.1  10.2  300  15  8   6.7   3.7
 13500 -10.9  12.4  285  11  6   6.7   3.7 | -11.2  11.8  305  15  7   6.0   3.3
 13000  -9.9  14.2  290  10  5   6.2   3.4 | -10.3  13.5  310  14  7   5.6   3.1
 12500  -9.1  15.6  295  10  5   5.0   2.8 |  -9.6  14.7  315  14  7   4.7   2.6
 12000  -8.4  16.9  305  10  5   4.4   2.4 |  -8.9  16.0  325  13  7   4.7   2.6
 11500  -7.9  17.8  315  10  5   2.9   1.6 |  -8.2  17.2  335  13  7   4.4   2.4
 11000  -7.5  18.5  320  10  5   1.7   0.9 |  -7.5  18.5  340  14  7   3.9   2.1
 10500  -7.5  18.5  320  10  5  -0.6  -0.3 |  -7.1  19.2  345  14  7   2.7   1.5
 10250  -7.5  18.5  320   9  5  -0.9  -0.5 |  -6.9  19.6  345  15  7   3.2   1.8
 10000  -7.6  18.3  320   9  5   0.1   0.0 |  -6.6  20.1  345  15  8   1.5   0.8
  9750  -7.6  18.3  320   9  5  -1.9  -1.0 |  -6.6  20.1  345  15  8   0.1   0.0
  9500  -7.9  17.8  325   9  4  -4.2  -2.3 |  -6.6  20.1  345  15  7   0.8   0.4
  9250  -8.1  17.4  325   8  4  -3.8  -2.1 |  -6.5  20.3  345  14  7   0.4   0.2
  9000  -8.4  16.9  330   8  4  -4.2  -2.3 |  -6.5  20.3  345  14  7  -0.5  -0.3
  8750  -8.8  16.2  325   7  4  -5.7  -3.1 |  -6.7  19.9  340  13  7  -2.7  -1.5
  8500  -9.3  15.3  325   7  3  -7.7  -4.2 |  -6.9  19.6  340  12  6  -3.9  -2.2
  8250  -9.9  14.2  325   6  3  -7.0  -3.8 |  -7.2  19.0  335  11  6  -4.7  -2.6
  8000 -10.3  13.5  330   5  3  -5.5  -3.0 |  -7.6  18.3  335  10  5  -5.4  -3.0
  7750 -10.7  12.7  330   4  2  -6.6  -3.6 |  -8.0  17.6  330   9  5  -6.6  -3.6
  7500 -11.2  11.8  335   3  2  -6.1  -3.4 |  -8.6  16.5  325   8  4  -7.7  -4.2
  7250 -11.5  11.3  340   3  1  -1.7  -1.0 |  -9.1  15.6  320   7  4  -5.1  -2.8
  7000 -11.6  11.1  340   3  1  -0.6  -0.3 |  -9.4  15.1  310   6  3  -3.2  -1.7
  6750 -11.6  11.1  345   2  1   1.2   0.7 |  -9.6  14.7  295   5  2  -4.4  -2.4
  6500 -11.3  11.7  340   3  1   7.7   4.2 |  -9.9  14.2  255   4  2   0.8   0.4
  6250 -10.6  12.9  340   3  1   9.9   5.4 |  -9.6  14.7  255   5  2   5.4   3.0
  6000  -9.9  14.2  340   3  2   9.4   5.2 |  -9.3  15.3  250   5  3   3.9   2.1
  5750  -9.2  15.4  340   3  2  12.2   6.7 |  -9.0  15.8  245   5  3   5.5   3.0
  5500  -8.1  17.4  340   3  2  15.5   8.5 |  -8.4  16.9  245   4  2   8.0   4.4
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
                   Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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