Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
UXUS97 KBOU 211212
SRGBOU

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
0612 MDT Tuesday, October 21, 2014

This forecast is for Tuesday, October 21, 2014:

If the trigger temperature of 73.0 F/22.8 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 874 ft/min (4.4 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 14824 ft MSL (9539 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 77.0 F/25.5 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1200 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1500 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 7961 ft MSL (2676 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Wednesday 10/22.... Poor

Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1800 MDT)......... Slight increase
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... 17804 ft MSL (12519 ft AGL)
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1800 MDT)................ Weak PVA
Potential height of wave....................... 18295 ft MSL (13010 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Wednesday 10/22....... Poor

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:16:11 / 18:12:56 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 56 min 46 sec (656 min 46 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:44:09 MDT... 39.39 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 10/21/2014 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 13386 ft MSL (8101 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 15885 ft MSL (10600 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 15756 ft MSL (10471 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +0.6
K index......................... +19.2

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -68.4 -91.1   215   34   18   6.1   3.3   80.0 176.1    31.9      M    M
 45000  -58.8 -73.8   225   43   22   8.0   4.4   71.8 161.2    29.1      M    M
 40000  -49.1 -56.4   225   32   16   7.5   4.1   63.1 145.7    25.4      M    M
 38000  -46.2 -51.2   230   29   15   7.8   4.3   58.6 137.5    23.0      M    M
 36000  -41.9 -43.4   230   23   12   7.2   3.9   56.4 133.5    22.0      M    M
 34000  -38.4 -37.1   260   17    9   1.6   0.9   53.1 127.6    20.2      M    M
 32000  -37.3 -35.1   265   20   10   4.4   2.4   46.7 116.0    16.0      M    M
 30000  -35.9 -32.6   260   22   11  -5.6  -3.1   40.8 105.4    11.9      M    M
 29000  -37.4 -35.3   230   24   13   4.1   2.3   35.1  95.1     7.7      M    M
 28000  -34.5 -30.1   230   25   13   9.6   5.3   34.9  94.9     7.7      M    M
 27000  -30.9 -23.6   235   26   13   9.6   5.3   34.9  94.8     7.8      M    M
 26000  -28.0 -18.4   235   25   13   9.5   5.2   34.9  94.8     7.8      M    M
 25000  -25.2 -13.4   240   20   10   9.7   5.3   34.8  94.7     7.8      M    M
 24000  -22.8  -9.0   220   17    9   7.6   4.1   34.2  93.6     7.4      M    M
 23000  -20.5  -4.9   195   17    9   7.5   4.1   33.4  92.2     6.8      M    M
 22000  -18.4  -1.1   180   13    7   6.5   3.6   32.5  90.4     6.1      M    M
 21000  -16.8   1.8   215   16    8   7.3   4.0   30.9  87.6     4.8      M    M
 20000  -14.6   5.7   215   19   10   9.4   5.2   30.1  86.1     4.1      M    M
 19500  -13.4   7.9   215   18    9   7.8   4.3   29.8  85.7     3.9      M    M
 19000  -12.2  10.0   215   17    9   7.5   4.1   29.5  85.1     3.7      M    M
 18500  -11.3  11.7   230   18    9   4.7   2.6   28.9  84.1     3.2      M    M
 18000  -10.4  13.3   240   20   10   8.5   4.7   28.4  83.1     2.6      M    M
 17500  -10.4  13.3   240   18    9   1.3   0.7   26.8  80.2     1.2      M    M
 17000   -9.1  15.6   235   16    8   7.7   4.2   26.5  79.7     0.9      M    M
 16500   -7.9  17.8   230   14    7   8.1   4.5   26.2  79.2     0.7      M    M
 16000   -6.7  19.9   225   12    6   8.5   4.7   26.0  78.9     0.5      M    M
 15500   -5.4  22.3   240   11    6   8.5   4.7   25.8  78.5     0.3      M    M
 15000   -4.2  24.4   255   10    5   8.5   4.7   25.6  78.1     0.1      M    M
 14500   -2.9  26.8   255   10    5   8.2   4.5   25.4  77.7    -0.1    851  4.3
 14000   -1.8  28.8   250    9    5   8.0   4.4   25.1  77.2    -0.4    801  4.1
 13500    0.0  32.0   255    8    4   7.0   3.9   24.7  76.4    -0.8    727  3.7
 13000    0.8  33.4   260    7    3   7.9   4.4   24.1  75.4    -1.5    688  3.5
 12500    2.2  36.0   265    6    3   9.3   5.1   24.1  75.3    -1.5    631  3.2
 12000    3.6  38.5   270    5    3   9.4   5.2   24.0  75.2    -1.6    574  2.9
 11500    5.0  41.0   275    5    2   9.4   5.2   23.9  75.1    -1.6    518  2.6
 11000    6.4  43.5   280    4    2   9.4   5.2   23.9  75.0    -1.7    461  2.3
 10500    7.8  46.0   285    4    2   9.4   5.2   23.8  74.9    -1.8    404  2.1
 10250    8.5  47.3   285    4    2   9.3   5.1   23.8  74.9    -1.8    376  1.9
 10000    9.2  48.6   285    4    2   9.3   5.1   23.8  74.8    -1.8    348  1.8
  9750    9.9  49.8   285    3    2   8.4   4.6   23.7  74.7    -1.9    320  1.6
  9500   10.4  50.7   285    3    1   7.6   4.2   23.6  74.4    -2.0    296  1.5
  9250   11.0  51.8   290    2    1   7.8   4.3   23.4  74.2    -2.2    271  1.4
  9000   11.6  52.9   290    2    1   7.8   4.3   23.3  73.9    -2.3    247  1.3
  8750   12.1  53.8   290    3    1   7.8   4.3   23.1  73.7    -2.5    222  1.1
  8500   12.7  54.9   285    4    2   7.8   4.3   23.0  73.4    -2.7    198  1.0
  8250   13.3  55.9   285    4    2   7.8   4.3   22.8  73.1    -2.8    173  0.9
  8000   13.9  57.0   285    5    3   7.8   4.3   22.7  72.9    -3.0    149  0.8
  7750   14.4  57.9   280    5    3   7.8   4.3   22.5  72.6    -3.2    124  0.6
  7500   15.0  59.0   275    5    3   7.9   4.3   22.4  72.3    -3.3     99  0.5
  7250   15.6  60.1   270    5    3   7.6   4.2   22.2  72.0    -3.5     75  0.4
  7000   16.1  61.0   265    5    3   4.3   2.4   22.0  71.6    -3.7     54  0.3
  6750   16.2  61.2   250    7    4   2.0   1.1   21.5  70.6    -4.3     40  0.2
  6500   16.4  61.5   240   10    5   3.2   1.7   20.9  69.6    -4.8     27  0.1
  6250   16.5  61.7   235   12    6  -3.0  -1.6   20.3  68.5    -5.5     17  0.1
  6000   15.8  60.4   230   15    8 -16.7  -9.2   18.8  65.9    -7.0     33  0.2
  5750   14.2  57.6   230   10    5 -21.7 -11.9   16.5  61.7    -9.4     74  0.4
  5500   12.5  54.5   230    5    3 -21.0 -11.5   14.2  57.6   -11.7    115  0.6

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           10/21/2014 at 0900 MDT          |       10/21/2014 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... +25.4  LI... +0.1               | K index... +23.6  LI... +0.3
CAPE... +20.0  CIN... -65.0                | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -96.6
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -65.9 -86.6  220  38 19   4.0   2.2 | -66.6 -87.9  215  43 22   4.2   2.3
 45000 -59.2 -74.6  220  45 23   6.0   3.3 | -59.3 -74.7  215  50 26   6.1   3.4
 40000 -50.2 -58.4  220  35 18   6.1   3.3 | -50.2 -58.4  215  41 21   5.6   3.1
 38000 -46.5 -51.7  225  31 16   6.1   3.4 | -47.0 -52.6  220  38 19   5.2   2.9
 36000 -42.8 -45.0  235  28 14   6.1   3.4 | -43.9 -47.0  230  35 18   5.2   2.9
 34000 -40.0 -40.0  245  24 12   3.6   2.0 | -41.0 -41.8  230  31 16   4.4   2.4
 32000 -37.5 -35.5  260  19 10   3.6   2.0 | -38.4 -37.1  235  25 13   4.4   2.4
 30000 -35.4 -31.7  250  18  9   3.5   1.9 | -35.2 -31.4  230  23 12   5.1   2.8
 29000 -34.4 -29.9  240  20 10   3.5   1.9 | -33.6 -28.5  225  24 12   5.1   2.8
 28000 -33.3 -27.9  235  21 11   3.4   1.9 | -32.1 -25.8  225  25 13   5.0   2.8
 27000 -31.3 -24.3  225  22 11   8.7   4.8 | -30.1 -22.2  220  25 13   7.7   4.2
 26000 -28.7 -19.7  225  21 11   8.9   4.9 | -27.8 -18.0  220  25 13   7.7   4.2
 25000 -26.1 -15.0  220  21 11   8.9   4.9 | -25.5 -13.9  215  25 13   7.8   4.3
 24000 -23.5 -10.3  220  21 11   8.4   4.6 | -23.3  -9.9  215  25 13   7.6   4.2
 23000 -21.0  -5.8  220  21 11   8.4   4.6 | -21.0  -5.8  215  24 13   7.6   4.2
 22000 -18.4  -1.1  220  21 11   8.4   4.6 | -18.8  -1.8  220  24 12   7.6   4.2
 21000 -16.2   2.8  220  20 10   6.8   3.7 | -16.6   2.1  220  23 12   7.0   3.9
 20000 -14.2   6.4  225  18  9   6.8   3.7 | -14.5   5.9  220  21 11   7.0   3.9
 19500 -13.2   8.2  225  17  9   6.9   3.8 | -13.4   7.9  220  21 11   7.0   3.9
 19000 -12.2  10.0  225  17  9   6.7   3.7 | -12.4   9.7  220  20 10   6.9   3.8
 18500 -11.4  11.5  230  16  8   5.6   3.1 | -11.4  11.5  220  19 10   6.3   3.4
 18000 -10.6  12.9  230  15  8   5.6   3.1 | -10.5  13.1  225  18  9   6.3   3.5
 17500  -9.7  14.5  230  14  7   6.5   3.6 |  -9.6  14.7  225  17  9   6.3   3.5
 17000  -8.7  16.3  230  14  7   6.7   3.7 |  -8.7  16.3  225  16  8   6.4   3.5
 16500  -7.8  18.0  230  13  7   7.1   3.9 |  -7.8  18.0  225  15  8   6.8   3.7
 16000  -6.1  21.0  230  13  7   7.9   4.4 |  -6.7  19.9  225  15  8   7.8   4.3
 15500  -4.9  23.2  230  13  6   7.9   4.3 |  -5.0  23.0  225  15  8   8.1   4.4
 15000  -3.8  25.2  225  12  6   7.8   4.3 |  -3.8  25.2  225  15  8   8.4   4.6
 14500  -2.6  27.3  225  11  6   7.9   4.3 |  -2.5  27.5  225  14  7   8.3   4.6
 14000  -1.5  29.3  220  10  5   8.3   4.6 |  -1.3  29.7  220  14  7   8.1   4.4
 13500  -0.2  31.6  220   9  5   8.3   4.6 |  -0.2  31.6  220  13  7   8.1   4.4
 13000   1.0  33.8  220   8  4   8.5   4.7 |   1.0  33.8  215  12  6   8.2   4.5
 12500   2.3  36.1  220   6  3   8.5   4.7 |   2.2  36.0  210  11  6   8.2   4.5
 12000   3.5  38.3  220   5  3   8.9   4.9 |   3.4  38.1  205   9  5   8.1   4.5
 11500   4.8  40.6  230   4  2   8.9   4.9 |   4.6  40.3  195   8  4   8.2   4.5
 11000   6.1  43.0  250   3  2   8.1   4.4 |   5.8  42.4  190   6  3   7.9   4.3
 10500   7.3  45.1  275   3  2   8.8   4.8 |   6.9  44.4  200   4  2   8.6   4.7
 10250   7.9  46.2  290   3  2   5.3   2.9 |   7.5  45.5  205   3  2   5.2   2.9
 10000   8.2  46.8  290   4  2   6.5   3.6 |   7.8  46.0  215   3  2   6.4   3.5
  9750   8.9  48.0  300   5  2  10.9   6.0 |   8.5  47.3  235   3  2  10.5   5.8
  9500   9.7  49.5  305   5  3  10.0   5.5 |   9.2  48.6  250   3  2   9.6   5.3
  9250  10.4  50.7  305   6  3   7.9   4.4 |   9.9  49.8  265   4  2   8.4   4.6
  9000  10.9  51.6  310   7  3   7.3   4.0 |  10.5  50.9  270   5  2   8.2   4.5
  8750  11.6  52.9  310   7  4   9.0   5.0 |  11.2  52.2  275   5  3   9.5   5.2
  8500  12.2  54.0  310   8  4   8.4   4.6 |  11.9  53.4  280   6  3   9.0   5.0
  8250  12.8  55.0  310   9  4   7.6   4.2 |  12.5  54.5  285   6  3   8.5   4.7
  8000  13.3  55.9  310   9  4   7.1   3.9 |  13.1  55.6  285   6  3   7.9   4.4
  7750  13.9  57.0  310   9  5   7.6   4.2 |  13.7  56.7  285   7  3   8.0   4.4
  7500  14.4  57.9  315   9  5   6.8   3.7 |  14.3  57.7  285   6  3   7.7   4.2
  7250  14.9  58.8  315   9  5   5.5   3.0 |  14.9  58.8  285   6  3   7.2   4.0
  7000  15.3  59.5  310   9  4   5.0   2.7 |  15.4  59.7  280   5  2   7.1   3.9
  6750  15.6  60.1  310   8  4   5.4   3.0 |  15.9  60.6  275   4  2   5.9   3.2
  6500  15.9  60.6  310   8  4  -0.8  -0.4 |  16.4  61.5  270   3  1   8.1   4.4
  6250  15.5  59.9  300   6  3  -6.7  -3.7 |  17.1  62.8  260   2  1  10.7   5.9
  6000  15.1  59.2  290   5  3  -3.1  -1.7 |  17.8  64.0  245   2  1   9.4   5.2
  5750  14.9  58.8  270   5  3  -6.3  -3.5 |  18.5  65.3  225   2  1  11.4   6.2
  5500  13.9  57.0  240   5  2 -21.7 -11.9 |  19.6  67.3  225   1  1  17.7   9.7

           10/21/2014 at 1500 MDT          |       10/21/2014 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +22.1  LI... -0.7               | K index... +28.5  LI... -0.9
CAPE... +38.4  CIN... -36.8                | CAPE... +79.5  CIN... -20.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -65.6 -86.1  210  48 25   3.8   2.1 | -64.7 -84.5  215  47 24   4.0   2.2
 45000 -59.2 -74.6  210  55 28   5.1   2.8 | -58.5 -73.3  210  56 29   4.4   2.4
 40000 -51.5 -60.7  215  46 23   5.0   2.7 | -51.5 -60.7  210  58 30   4.0   2.2
 38000 -48.7 -55.7  220  43 22   4.8   2.6 | -49.7 -57.5  220  53 27   3.0   1.6
 36000 -45.8 -50.4  225  42 21   4.8   2.6 | -47.9 -54.2  230  50 26   3.0   1.6
 34000 -42.8 -45.0  230  39 20   5.3   2.9 | -45.0 -49.0  230  46 24   6.5   3.6
 32000 -39.6 -39.3  230  35 18   5.3   2.9 | -41.1 -42.0  230  41 21   6.5   3.6
 30000 -35.5 -31.9  230  32 16   6.8   3.7 | -36.8 -34.2  230  37 19   8.1   4.4
 29000 -33.5 -28.3  225  31 16   6.8   3.7 | -33.8 -28.8  235  36 19   8.1   4.4
 28000 -31.5 -24.7  225  30 16   6.8   3.7 | -31.3 -24.3  235  36 18   8.1   4.5
 27000 -29.4 -20.9  220  30 15   7.0   3.8 | -29.1 -20.4  235  35 18   7.1   3.9
 26000 -27.3 -17.1  220  29 15   7.1   3.9 | -27.0 -16.6  235  35 18   7.1   3.9
 25000 -25.3 -13.5  220  28 15   7.1   3.9 | -24.9 -12.8  230  34 17   7.1   3.9
 24000 -23.1  -9.6  220  28 14   7.5   4.1 | -22.8  -9.0  230  32 17   7.6   4.1
 23000 -20.9  -5.6  225  27 14   7.5   4.1 | -20.6  -5.1  230  29 15   7.6   4.1
 22000 -18.7  -1.7  230  26 13   7.5   4.1 | -18.3  -0.9  230  26 13   7.5   4.1
 21000 -16.5   2.3  235  25 13   7.1   3.9 | -16.2   2.8  230  24 12   6.8   3.7
 20000 -14.4   6.1  230  24 12   7.1   3.9 | -14.2   6.4  230  23 12   6.8   3.7
 19500 -13.4   7.9  230  23 12   7.1   3.9 | -13.2   8.2  230  23 12   6.8   3.7
 19000 -12.3   9.9  230  22 12   7.1   3.9 | -12.2  10.0  230  22 11   6.8   3.7
 18500 -11.3  11.7  230  22 11   7.2   3.9 | -11.3  11.7  230  21 11   6.3   3.4
 18000 -10.2  13.6  230  21 11   7.2   3.9 | -10.4  13.3  225  20 10   6.3   3.5
 17500  -9.2  15.4  225  20 11   7.3   4.0 |  -9.5  14.9  225  19 10   6.2   3.4
 17000  -8.1  17.4  225  20 10   7.3   4.0 |  -8.6  16.5  225  19 10   6.2   3.4
 16500  -7.0  19.4  225  19 10   7.3   4.0 |  -7.7  18.1  225  18  9   6.3   3.5
 16000  -5.9  21.4  225  18  9   7.2   4.0 |  -6.7  19.9  225  17  9   6.6   3.6
 15500  -4.9  23.2  225  17  9   7.2   3.9 |  -5.8  21.6  220  16  8   6.5   3.6
 15000  -3.2  26.2  225  17  9   7.7   4.2 |  -4.8  23.4  220  15  8   7.6   4.2
 14500  -2.0  28.4  225  16  8   7.7   4.2 |  -3.1  26.4  210  14  7   7.7   4.2
 14000  -0.9  30.4  225  16  8   7.5   4.1 |  -1.9  28.6  200  12  6   8.6   4.7
 13500   0.1  32.2  225  15  8   7.5   4.1 |  -0.7  30.7  190  11  6   8.4   4.6
 13000   1.2  34.2  225  14  7   7.4   4.1 |   0.7  33.3  185  10  5  10.1   5.6
 12500   2.3  36.1  225  13  7   7.3   4.0 |   2.1  35.8  180  10  5  10.1   5.5
 12000   3.4  38.1  220  12  6   8.6   4.7 |   3.6  38.5  175   9  4   9.0   4.9
 11500   4.7  40.5  215  11  5   8.6   4.7 |   4.9  40.8  170   8  4   9.1   5.0
 11000   5.9  42.6  205  10  5   7.9   4.3 |   6.2  43.2  160   7  3   8.2   4.5
 10500   7.0  44.6  195   9  5   7.3   4.0 |   7.4  45.3  150   6  3   8.0   4.4
 10250   7.6  45.7  190   9  4  10.9   6.0 |   8.0  46.4  145   6  3  10.9   6.0
 10000   8.6  47.5  180   8  4  11.1   6.1 |   8.9  48.0  140   6  3  11.1   6.1
  9750   9.2  48.6  175   7  3   7.7   4.2 |   9.6  49.3  135   5  3   8.7   4.8
  9500   9.8  49.6  165   6  3   8.8   4.8 |  10.3  50.5  125   5  3   9.7   5.3
  9250  10.4  50.7  155   6  3   8.0   4.4 |  11.0  51.8  120   5  3   8.2   4.5
  9000  11.0  51.8  150   5  3   8.3   4.5 |  11.5  52.7  115   5  2   8.0   4.4
  8750  11.6  52.9  150   5  2   9.0   5.0 |  12.2  54.0  110   4  2   9.3   5.1
  8500  12.3  54.1  145   4  2   8.7   4.8 |  12.9  55.2  105   4  2   8.8   4.8
  8250  13.0  55.4  140   4  2  10.2   5.6 |  13.5  56.3  095   4  2   9.9   5.4
  8000  13.8  56.8  140   4  2  10.6   5.8 |  14.3  57.7  085   4  2   9.7   5.3
  7750  14.5  58.1  140   4  2   9.4   5.2 |  15.0  59.0  075   3  2   8.3   4.6
  7500  15.2  59.4  140   4  2   9.7   5.3 |  15.6  60.1  065   3  2   8.6   4.7
  7250  15.9  60.6  140   4  2  10.4   5.7 |  16.2  61.2  050   3  2   9.3   5.1
  7000  16.7  62.1  140   3  2  10.4   5.7 |  17.0  62.6  040   3  2   9.5   5.2
  6750  17.5  63.5  140   3  2   9.1   5.0 |  17.6  63.7  025   4  2   8.8   4.8
  6500  18.1  64.6  140   3  2   9.7   5.3 |  18.3  64.9  020   4  2   8.9   4.9
  6250  18.9  66.0  140   3  1  11.2   6.1 |  19.0  66.2  010   4  2   9.4   5.2
  6000  19.8  67.6  140   3  1  10.6   5.8 |  19.7  67.5  005   5  2   9.5   5.2
  5750  20.5  68.9  140   3  1  10.4   5.7 |  20.4  68.7  355   5  3   8.5   4.7
  5500  21.4  70.5  135   2  1  14.1   7.7 |  20.9  69.6  355   6  3   4.2   2.3
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
                   Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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