Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
UXUS97 KBOU 261319
SRGBOU

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
0619 MST Thursday, February 26, 2015

This forecast is for Thursday, February 26, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 29.9 F/-1.2 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 0 ft/min (0.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 7811 ft MSL (2526 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 18.0 F/-8.2 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... None
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 5366 ft MSL (81 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 02/27....... Poor

Wave Soaring Index............................. Good
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1700 MST)......... No change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... 18067 ft MSL (12782 ft AGL)
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1700 MST)................ Weak PVA
Potential height of wave....................... 26423 ft MSL (21138 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Friday 02/27.......... Poor

Remarks... Arctic airmass in place over northeast colorado today. Another upper
           level disturbance will move out of the mountains late this afternoon.

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:37:07 / 17:46:51 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 9 min 44 sec (669 min 44 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:12:15 MST... 41.64 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 02/26/2015 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 12809 ft MSL (7524 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 8728 ft MSL (3443 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +15.0
K index......................... +3.8

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -51.2 -60.2   305   50   26   2.3   1.3  119.8 247.7    72.1      M    M
 45000  -51.2 -60.2   305   56   29   1.6   0.9   94.7 202.5    61.9      M    M
 40000  -49.4 -56.9   305   58   30   1.1   0.6   72.3 162.2    51.9      M    M
 38000  -48.7 -55.7   305   59   30   4.2   2.3   65.2 149.4    48.4      M    M
 36000  -50.3 -58.5   305   57   29  -5.3  -2.9   54.1 129.4    42.1      M    M
 34000  -53.6 -64.5   305   54   28   0.9   0.5   40.9 105.6    34.0      M    M
 32000  -54.6 -66.3   310   59   30  -2.3  -1.2   31.3  88.3    28.0      M    M
 30000  -51.9 -61.4   315   64   33   4.0   2.2   27.0  80.5    25.6      M    M
 29000  -50.5 -58.9   320   69   35   6.7   3.7   24.0  75.1    23.8      M    M
 28000  -48.5 -55.3   320   71   37   6.6   3.6   22.6  72.7    23.1      M    M
 27000  -46.5 -51.7   325   73   38   6.6   3.6   21.4  70.5    22.4      M    M
 26000  -44.6 -48.3   325   75   39   6.5   3.6   20.3  68.5    21.9      M    M
 25000  -43.2 -45.8   325   71   37   0.6   0.3   18.3  64.9    20.5      M    M
 24000  -42.9 -45.2   315   56   29   2.8   1.5   14.9  58.8    18.1      M    M
 23000  -40.8 -41.4   305   45   23   7.7   4.2   13.9  57.1    17.6      M    M
 22000  -38.5 -37.3   305   41   21   7.7   4.2   13.1  55.6    17.1      M    M
 21000  -36.2 -33.2   300   38   19   8.3   4.5   12.4  54.3    16.7      M    M
 20000  -35.1 -31.2   300   34   18   1.8   1.0   10.2  50.4    15.1      M    M
 19500  -34.9 -30.8   300   31   16  -0.6  -0.3    8.7  47.6    13.9      M    M
 19000  -35.3 -31.5   300   27   14   1.6   0.9    6.6  43.9    12.2      M    M
 18500  -34.2 -29.6   300   27   14  10.1   5.5    6.2  43.1    11.9      M    M
 18000  -33.4 -28.1   305   27   14   0.0   0.0    5.5  41.8    11.4      M    M
 17500  -32.9 -27.2   305   26   13   8.0   4.4    4.3  39.8    10.4      M    M
 17000  -31.5 -24.7   300   25   13   9.4   5.2    4.3  39.7    10.4      M    M
 16500  -30.1 -22.2   300   24   12   9.5   5.2    4.2  39.6    10.5      M    M
 16000  -28.7 -19.7   295   23   12   8.9   4.9    4.2  39.5    10.5      M    M
 15500  -27.3 -17.1   290   23   12   8.9   4.9    4.0  39.2    10.4      M    M
 15000  -25.9 -14.6   285   24   12  10.5   5.7    4.0  39.2    10.4      M    M
 14500  -23.6 -10.5   280   25   13   9.1   5.0    4.1  39.5    10.6      M    M
 14000  -22.4  -8.3   275   25   13   7.9   4.3    3.9  39.0    10.4      M    M
 13500  -21.3  -6.3   275   22   11   7.7   4.2    3.5  38.3    10.1      M    M
 13000  -20.2  -4.4   280   19   10   7.9   4.4    3.2  37.7     9.9      M    M
 12500  -19.2  -2.6   280   16    8   4.6   2.5    2.6  36.7     9.4      M    M
 12000  -18.5  -1.3   285   14    7   4.6   2.5    1.8  35.3     8.7      M    M
 11500  -17.8  -0.0   295   13    7   4.4   2.4    1.0  33.8     8.0      M    M
 11000  -17.3   0.9   300   12    6   6.7   3.7    0.0  32.0     7.1      M    M
 10500  -15.8   3.6   310   11    6   9.5   5.2    0.0  32.0     7.2      M    M
 10250  -15.1   4.8   315   11    6   9.7   5.3    0.0  32.0     7.2      M    M
 10000  -14.4   6.1   320   11    6   9.9   5.5    0.0  32.0     7.2      M    M
  9750  -13.6   7.5   310   10    5  10.3   5.6    0.0  32.1     7.2      M    M
  9500  -13.0   8.6   290   10    5   4.0   2.2   -0.1  31.9     7.1      M    M
  9250  -13.4   7.9   275   11    5 -16.0  -8.8   -1.2  29.8     6.0      M    M
  9000  -15.2   4.6   260   12    6 -25.8 -14.1   -3.8  25.1     3.5      M    M
  8750  -16.6   2.1   260    9    5 -10.6  -5.8   -6.1  21.0     1.4      M    M
  8500  -16.7   1.9   260    6    3   4.7   2.6   -7.0  19.4     0.5      M    M
  8250  -16.2   2.8   265    4    2   7.9   4.3   -7.2  19.0     0.3      M    M
  8000  -15.7   3.7   285    1    0   7.0   3.9   -7.4  18.7     0.1      M    M
  7750  -15.1   4.8   000    0    0   7.2   3.9   -7.6  18.3    -0.1    287  1.5
  7500  -14.6   5.7   085    1    1   6.9   3.8   -7.8  17.9    -0.3    264  1.3
  7250  -14.1   6.6   090    2    1   6.8   3.7   -8.0  17.5    -0.5    242  1.2
  7000  -13.6   7.5   090    3    2   6.8   3.7   -8.3  17.1    -0.7    219  1.1
  6750  -13.1   8.4   095    4    2   6.8   3.7   -8.5  16.7    -0.9    196  1.0
  6500  -12.6   9.3   095    4    2   6.9   3.8   -8.7  16.3    -1.1    173  0.9
  6250  -12.0  10.4   100    5    3   7.2   3.9   -8.9  16.0    -1.3    150  0.8
  6000  -11.5  11.3   100    6    3   7.0   3.8   -9.1  15.6    -1.5    127  0.6
  5750  -11.0  12.2   100    5    3   8.1   4.4   -9.3  15.3    -1.7    103  0.5
  5500  -10.4  13.3   100    4    2   4.0   2.2   -9.5  14.9    -1.9     80  0.4

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           02/26/2015 at 0800 MST          |       02/26/2015 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... +3.0  LI... +276.8              | K index... +0.5  LI... +278.4
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.7
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -52.3 -62.1  305  45 23   1.7   0.9 | -52.1 -61.8  300  43 22   1.6   0.9
 45000 -49.7 -57.5  305  49 25   1.7   0.9 | -49.6 -57.3  305  50 26   1.6   0.9
 40000 -48.6 -55.5  310  53 27   0.5   0.3 | -48.6 -55.5  305  50 26   0.4   0.2
 38000 -48.3 -54.9  310  54 28  -0.7  -0.4 | -48.4 -55.1  305  50 26  -0.8  -0.5
 36000 -51.0 -59.8  310  57 29  -4.8  -2.6 | -51.8 -61.2  305  53 27  -6.1  -3.4
 34000 -53.9 -65.0  310  61 31  -4.8  -2.6 | -55.5 -67.9  305  56 29  -6.1  -3.4
 32000 -54.6 -66.3  310  67 34   2.1   1.1 | -56.0 -68.8  300  60 31   3.7   2.0
 30000 -53.2 -63.8  315  76 39   2.2   1.2 | -53.5 -64.3  300  63 33   3.9   2.1
 29000 -51.7 -61.1  315  78 40   8.5   4.6 | -51.6 -60.9  300  64 33   8.7   4.8
 28000 -49.2 -56.6  315  77 40   8.4   4.6 | -49.0 -56.2  300  64 33   8.8   4.9
 27000 -46.6 -51.9  320  76 39   8.4   4.6 | -46.3 -51.3  300  65 33   8.9   4.9
 26000 -44.1 -47.4  320  75 39   7.5   4.1 | -43.7 -46.7  305  65 33   7.6   4.2
 25000 -42.0 -43.6  320  72 37   7.0   3.8 | -41.6 -42.9  305  65 33   7.1   3.9
 24000 -39.9 -39.8  320  69 35   7.0   3.8 | -39.5 -39.1  310  65 33   7.1   3.9
 23000 -37.9 -36.2  320  66 34   5.4   3.0 | -37.4 -35.3  310  65 33   5.2   2.9
 22000 -36.6 -33.9  320  61 32   4.2   2.3 | -36.2 -33.2  315  62 32   4.1   2.2
 21000 -35.3 -31.5  320  57 29   4.2   2.3 | -35.0 -31.0  315  60 31   4.1   2.2
 20000 -34.1 -29.4  320  52 27   4.4   2.4 | -33.6 -28.5  315  57 29   5.6   3.1
 19500 -33.4 -28.1  320  49 25   4.4   2.4 | -32.8 -27.0  315  55 28   5.5   3.0
 19000 -32.8 -27.0  320  46 24   4.4   2.4 | -32.0 -25.6  315  52 27   5.5   3.0
 18500 -32.1 -25.8  315  43 22   4.4   2.4 | -31.2 -24.2  315  49 25   5.5   3.0
 18000 -31.5 -24.7  315  40 21   4.5   2.4 | -30.3 -22.5  320  47 24   5.5   3.0
 17500 -30.7 -23.3  310  36 19   5.8   3.2 | -29.5 -21.1  320  44 23   5.6   3.1
 17000 -29.8 -21.6  305  32 17   5.5   3.0 | -28.7 -19.7  315  40 21   5.6   3.1
 16500 -28.8 -19.8  300  29 15   8.5   4.6 | -27.8 -18.0  315  37 19   5.5   3.0
 16000 -27.6 -17.7  300  27 14   8.7   4.8 | -27.0 -16.6  315  34 17   5.5   3.0
 15500 -25.7 -14.3  295  24 12   7.6   4.2 | -25.7 -14.3  310  29 15   7.2   3.9
 15000 -24.6 -12.3  290  23 12   7.8   4.3 | -24.6 -12.3  310  25 13   7.0   3.9
 14500 -23.5 -10.3  290  21 11   6.7   3.7 | -23.6 -10.5  305  23 12   7.3   4.0
 14000 -22.5  -8.5  290  19 10   6.8   3.7 | -22.5  -8.5  305  21 11   7.3   4.0
 13500 -21.5  -6.7  285  17  9   6.6   3.6 | -21.4  -6.5  300  19 10   7.0   3.9
 13000 -20.5  -4.9  285  15  8   6.6   3.6 | -20.4  -4.7  300  18  9   7.1   3.9
 12500 -19.6  -3.3  285  13  6   6.5   3.6 | -19.4  -2.9  295  16  8   6.1   3.4
 12000 -18.6  -1.5  290  11  6   6.6   3.6 | -18.5  -1.3  295  15  7   6.3   3.4
 11500 -17.7   0.1  285  10  5   5.6   3.1 | -17.7   0.1  290  13  7   4.5   2.5
 11000 -16.9   1.6  280  10  5   5.8   3.2 | -17.0   1.4  285  11  6   4.8   2.6
 10500 -16.2   2.8  270  10  5   3.3   1.8 | -16.6   2.1  270   9  5   1.4   0.8
 10250 -15.9   3.4  265  10  5   3.9   2.1 | -16.5   2.3  265   9  4   2.0   1.1
 10000 -15.6   3.9  260  10  5   3.0   1.7 | -16.3   2.7  255   8  4   1.3   0.7
  9750 -15.5   4.1  260  10  5   0.9   0.5 | -16.2   2.8  250   8  4   1.0   0.6
  9500 -15.5   4.1  255  10  5   0.2   0.1 | -16.1   3.0  240   7  4   1.5   0.8
  9250 -15.4   4.3  245   9  5   0.5   0.3 | -16.0   3.2  225   7  4   1.2   0.7
  9000 -15.4   4.3  240   9  4   0.3   0.2 | -15.9   3.4  210   7  4   2.5   1.4
  8750 -15.4   4.3  235   7  4   0.9   0.5 | -15.6   3.9  200   6  3   4.7   2.6
  8500 -15.3   4.5  230   5  2   1.8   1.0 | -15.3   4.5  185   6  3   5.4   3.0
  8250 -15.1   4.8  210   3  1   2.2   1.2 | -14.9   5.2  170   5  3   5.6   3.1
  8000 -14.9   5.2  165   2  1   3.1   1.7 | -14.5   5.9  155   5  3   5.3   2.9
  7750 -14.7   5.5  130   2  1   3.7   2.0 | -14.1   6.6  140   6  3   5.7   3.1
  7500 -14.4   6.1  115   3  1   3.5   1.9 | -13.6   7.5  125   6  3   6.3   3.4
  7250 -14.1   6.6  115   4  2   6.5   3.6 | -13.1   8.4  110   7  4   8.3   4.6
  7000 -13.5   7.7  110   5  2   8.7   4.8 | -12.4   9.7  105   7  3  10.1   5.6
  6750 -12.8   9.0  110   5  3   8.8   4.8 | -11.7  10.9  100   7  3   8.9   4.9
  6500 -12.1  10.2  110   6  3  10.1   5.5 | -11.1  12.0  095   7  3   9.5   5.2
  6250 -11.4  11.5  105   6  3  10.1   5.5 | -10.3  13.5  095   6  3  10.9   6.0
  6000 -10.6  12.9  105   6  3  10.0   5.5 |  -9.5  14.9  090   6  3  10.4   5.7
  5750  -9.9  14.2  105   5  3  10.4   5.7 |  -8.7  16.3  090   6  3  11.5   6.3
  5500  -9.1  15.6  100   5  3  11.9   6.5 |  -7.7  18.1  090   6  3  14.9   8.2

           02/26/2015 at 1400 MST          |       02/26/2015 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... +4.0  LI... +279.4              | K index... +6.5  LI... +280.0
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.6
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -52.1 -61.8  300  42 21   1.4   0.8 | -52.3 -62.1  300  41 21   1.3   0.7
 45000 -49.9 -57.8  300  51 26   1.4   0.8 | -50.3 -58.5  305  46 24   1.3   0.7
 40000 -48.8 -55.8  300  50 26   0.6   0.3 | -48.7 -55.7  300  47 24   1.0   0.5
 38000 -48.5 -55.3  300  49 25  -0.7  -0.4 | -48.1 -54.6  300  47 24  -0.5  -0.2
 36000 -51.4 -60.5  300  51 26  -5.2  -2.8 | -50.5 -58.9  300  50 26  -4.3  -2.3
 34000 -54.4 -65.9  300  54 28  -5.2  -2.8 | -53.1 -63.6  305  53 27  -4.3  -2.3
 32000 -55.1 -67.2  300  57 30   2.5   1.3 | -54.0 -65.2  305  57 29   0.8   0.4
 30000 -53.6 -64.5  300  61 31   2.4   1.3 | -53.5 -64.3  300  61 31   0.8   0.4
 29000 -51.9 -61.4  300  62 32   8.2   4.5 | -53.0 -63.4  300  63 32   7.1   3.9
 28000 -49.5 -57.1  300  62 32   8.2   4.5 | -50.1 -58.2  300  63 32   7.5   4.1
 27000 -47.0 -52.6  300  62 32   8.2   4.5 | -47.9 -54.2  295  63 32   7.5   4.1
 26000 -44.6 -48.3  300  62 32   7.1   3.9 | -45.6 -50.1  295  63 32   6.9   3.8
 25000 -42.6 -44.7  300  61 32   6.5   3.6 | -43.7 -46.7  295  61 32   6.5   3.6
 24000 -40.7 -41.3  300  61 31   6.5   3.6 | -41.8 -43.2  290  60 31   6.5   3.6
 23000 -38.7 -37.7  300  60 31   5.2   2.9 | -39.9 -39.8  290  59 30   6.0   3.3
 22000 -37.4 -35.3  300  58 30   4.4   2.4 | -38.1 -36.6  290  55 28   5.7   3.2
 21000 -36.1 -33.0  300  56 29   4.4   2.4 | -36.4 -33.5  285  51 26   5.8   3.2
 20000 -34.4 -29.9  300  54 28   8.1   4.4 | -34.4 -29.9  285  48 25   9.3   5.1
 19500 -33.3 -27.9  300  53 27   7.8   4.3 | -33.0 -27.4  285  46 24   9.1   5.0
 19000 -32.1 -25.8  300  52 27   7.8   4.3 | -31.7 -25.1  285  45 23   9.1   5.0
 18500 -31.0 -23.8  300  51 26   7.8   4.3 | -30.3 -22.5  285  44 22   9.1   5.0
 18000 -29.8 -21.6  300  50 26   7.6   4.2 | -29.0 -20.2  285  42 22   8.9   4.9
 17500 -28.8 -19.8  300  47 24   6.1   3.4 | -27.8 -18.0  285  41 21   7.6   4.2
 17000 -27.9 -18.2  295  44 23   6.1   3.4 | -26.6 -15.9  285  39 20   7.7   4.2
 16500 -26.9 -16.4  295  41 21   7.0   3.9 | -25.5 -13.9  285  38 19   7.4   4.0
 16000 -25.8 -14.4  295  38 19   7.1   3.9 | -24.4 -11.9  285  35 18   7.3   4.0
 15500 -24.2 -11.6  290  34 17   7.8   4.3 | -23.4 -10.1  285  32 17   5.9   3.2
 15000 -23.1  -9.6  290  32 17   7.8   4.3 | -22.3  -8.1  280  26 14   5.1   2.8
 14500 -22.0  -7.6  285  30 15   6.9   3.8 | -21.7  -7.1  270  23 12   2.9   1.6
 14000 -20.9  -5.6  285  27 14   7.1   3.9 | -21.2  -6.2  265  19 10   3.0   1.7
 13500 -20.0  -4.0  285  24 12   4.9   2.7 | -20.8  -5.4  255  17  9   2.2   1.2
 13000 -19.3  -2.7  280  20 10   4.9   2.7 | -20.5  -4.9  240  15  8   1.9   1.1
 12500 -18.7  -1.7  280  16  8   3.2   1.8 | -20.0  -4.0  220  14  7   5.4   2.9
 12000 -18.2  -0.8  270  13  7   3.2   1.7 | -19.2  -2.6  205  13  7   5.8   3.2
 11500 -17.8  -0.0  265  10  5   2.5   1.4 | -18.3  -0.9  190  13  7   5.5   3.0
 11000 -17.5   0.5  250   8  4   2.3   1.3 | -17.5   0.5  175  13  7   5.5   3.0
 10500 -17.0   1.4  225   7  3   3.8   2.1 | -16.7   1.9  160  13  7   4.8   2.6
 10250 -16.7   1.9  215   7  4   4.5   2.5 | -16.4   2.5  155  13  7   5.8   3.2
 10000 -16.4   2.5  205   7  4   1.1   0.6 | -16.0   3.2  145  13  7   2.4   1.3
  9750 -16.4   2.5  200   8  4   4.0   2.2 | -15.9   3.4  140  13  7   3.4   1.8
  9500 -15.8   3.6  190   8  4   9.4   5.1 | -15.4   4.3  135  13  7   7.4   4.0
  9250 -15.2   4.6  180   9  5   8.5   4.7 | -14.9   5.2  125  14  7   6.5   3.6
  9000 -14.5   5.9  170  11  5   6.5   3.5 | -14.4   6.1  120  15  8   6.0   3.3
  8750 -14.2   6.4  165  10  5   3.7   2.0 | -14.0   6.8  115  16  8   5.6   3.1
  8500 -13.9   7.0  150  10  5   4.4   2.4 | -13.6   7.5  110  16  8   6.3   3.5
  8250 -13.6   7.5  140  10  5   4.6   2.5 | -13.1   8.4  110  17  9   6.3   3.5
  8000 -13.2   8.2  125  10  5   5.4   3.0 | -12.6   9.3  105  18  9   6.8   3.7
  7750 -12.8   9.0  110  10  5   6.7   3.7 | -12.1  10.2  100  18  9   7.3   4.0
  7500 -12.3   9.9  100  11  6   7.3   4.0 | -11.6  11.1  095  18  9   7.2   3.9
  7250 -11.7  10.9  090  11  6   8.8   4.8 | -11.0  12.2  090  18  9   7.9   4.3
  7000 -11.0  12.2  085  11  6  10.3   5.7 | -10.4  13.3  085  17  9   8.6   4.7
  6750 -10.2  13.6  080  11  6   9.4   5.2 |  -9.8  14.4  080  17  9   8.6   4.7
  6500  -9.6  14.7  075  11  5   9.7   5.3 |  -9.2  15.4  075  16  8   9.0   4.9
  6250  -8.8  16.2  075  10  5  10.8   5.9 |  -8.5  16.7  075  15  8   9.3   5.1
  6000  -8.0  17.6  075  10  5  10.6   5.8 |  -7.8  18.0  070  13  7   9.3   5.1
  5750  -7.2  19.0  070   9  5  11.5   6.3 |  -7.1  19.2  065  12  6   9.4   5.2
  5500  -6.3  20.7  070   9  5  14.9   8.2 |  -6.4  20.5  065  11  6  10.3   5.6
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
                   Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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