Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
UXUS97 KBOU 261401
SRGBOU

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
0701 MST Wednesday, November 26, 2014

This forecast is for Wednesday, November 26, 2014:

If the trigger temperature of 45.4 F/7.5 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 287 ft/min (1.5 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 10105 ft MSL (4820 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 51.0 F/11.0 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1145 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 9281 ft MSL (3995 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 11/27..... Good

Wave Soaring Index............................. Fair
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1700 MST)......... Slight improvement
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... 17067 ft MSL (11782 ft AGL)
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1700 MST)................ Weak NVA
Potential height of wave....................... 18295 ft MSL (13010 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Thursday 11/27........ Fair

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:56:23 / 16:37:14 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 9 hr 40 min 52 sec (580 min 52 sec)
Altitude of sun at 11:46:58 MST... 29.26 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 11/26/2014 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 16104 ft MSL (10819 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 13040 ft MSL (7754 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +11.5
K index......................... +9.5

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -62.5 -80.5   315   70   36   1.8   1.0   96.9 206.4    49.1      M    M
 45000  -62.6 -80.7   310   94   48   2.6   1.4   72.0 161.6    37.5      M    M
 40000  -61.9 -79.4   320  108   56 -17.1  -9.4   49.0 120.2    25.2      M    M
 38000  -61.8 -79.2   325   94   48   7.8   4.3   40.4 104.7    20.1      M    M
 36000  -57.1 -70.8   330   96   49   8.2   4.5   38.7 101.6    19.5      M    M
 34000  -51.7 -61.1   335   97   50   8.4   4.6   38.0 100.4    19.5      M    M
 32000  -46.7 -52.1   330   91   47   8.3   4.6   36.7  98.1    19.1      M    M
 30000  -41.6 -42.9   325   89   46   9.0   4.9   35.9  96.7    19.0      M    M
 29000  -39.0 -38.2   325   88   45   8.7   4.8   35.5  95.9    18.9      M    M
 28000  -36.4 -33.5   325   86   44   8.7   4.8   35.1  95.2    18.8      M    M
 27000  -33.4 -28.1   325   84   43   6.3   3.4   34.3  93.8    18.5      M    M
 26000  -31.5 -24.7   325   82   42   6.4   3.5   33.0  91.4    17.7      M    M
 25000  -29.6 -21.3   325   81   42   6.4   3.5   31.8  89.3    16.9      M    M
 24000  -27.5 -17.5   325   81   42   7.8   4.3   30.8  87.4    16.3      M    M
 23000  -25.2 -13.4   325   81   42   7.6   4.2   30.0  86.0    15.8      M    M
 22000  -23.0  -9.4   325   80   41   7.6   4.2   29.1  84.4    15.3      M    M
 21000  -20.7  -5.3   320   80   41   7.6   4.2   28.3  83.0    14.8      M    M
 20000  -18.5  -1.3   320   80   41   7.4   4.0   27.7  81.8    14.4      M    M
 19500  -17.3   0.9   320   79   41   4.3   2.4   27.2  81.0    14.1      M    M
 19000  -18.0  -0.4   325   79   40  -5.1  -2.8   24.8  76.6    12.0      M    M
 18500  -17.4   0.7   325   78   40   8.8   4.8   23.8  74.8    11.2      M    M
 18000  -16.6   2.1   320   80   41   3.3   1.8   23.1  73.5    10.7      M    M
 17500  -16.0   3.2   320   79   40   4.1   2.3   22.0  71.6     9.8      M    M
 17000  -15.8   3.6   320   77   40  -2.4  -1.3   20.6  69.2     8.7      M    M
 16500  -15.3   4.5   320   75   39   9.7   5.3   19.6  67.2     7.7      M    M
 16000  -14.0   6.8   320   74   38   8.9   4.9   19.4  66.9     7.6      M    M
 15500  -12.7   9.1   320   72   37   8.9   4.9   19.3  66.7     7.5      M    M
 15000  -11.3  11.7   320   70   36   9.0   5.0   19.1  66.5     7.5      M    M
 14500  -10.1  13.8   320   68   35   7.0   3.8   18.9  66.0     7.3      M    M
 14000   -9.1  15.6   315   66   34   6.9   3.8   18.4  65.2     6.8      M    M
 13500   -7.7  18.1   310   62   32   4.5   2.5   17.7  63.8     6.2      M    M
 13000   -7.2  19.0   305   59   30   3.0   1.7   16.6  61.8     5.2      M    M
 12500   -6.7  19.9   305   56   29   6.4   3.5   15.6  60.1     4.3      M    M
 12000   -5.6  21.9   300   54   28   7.6   4.2   15.3  59.5     4.0      M    M
 11500   -4.5  23.9   295   54   28   3.4   1.8   14.9  58.8     3.6      M    M
 11000   -4.5  23.9   295   54   28   0.7   0.4   13.4  56.1     2.2      M    M
 10500   -4.5  23.9   290   55   28   1.4   0.8   11.9  53.4     0.7      M    M
 10250   -4.3  24.3   290   55   28   3.7   2.0   11.4  52.4     0.2      M    M
 10000   -4.1  24.6   290   57   29   1.0   0.6   10.8  51.5    -0.3    279  1.4
  9750   -4.1  24.6   290   51   26   1.3   0.7   10.1  50.1    -1.1    271  1.4
  9500   -4.1  24.6   285   45   23  -5.9  -3.3    9.3  48.7    -1.8    264  1.3
  9250   -5.0  23.0   285   39   20 -16.6  -9.1    7.5  45.5    -3.5    285  1.4
  9000   -6.3  20.7   280   33   17 -19.1 -10.5    5.4  41.7    -5.5    315  1.6
  8750   -7.5  18.5   280   25   13 -11.4  -6.3    3.3  37.9    -7.5    345  1.8
  8500   -7.9  17.8   280   17    9  -3.3  -1.8    2.1  35.8    -8.6    349  1.8
  8250   -8.2  17.2   280    9    4  -2.1  -1.1    1.1  33.9    -9.6    349  1.8
  8000   -8.0  17.6   275    1    0   6.4   3.5    0.5  32.8   -10.2    337  1.7
  7750   -7.5  18.5   050    1    1   2.9   1.6    0.3  32.5   -10.4    314  1.6
  7500   -7.7  18.1   060    3    2  -5.5  -3.0   -0.7  30.7   -11.4    313  1.6
  7250   -7.9  17.8   065    5    3   2.9   1.6   -1.7  29.0   -12.3    311  1.6
  7000   -7.3  18.9   065    7    4  10.2   5.6   -1.8  28.8   -12.5    285  1.5
  6750   -6.6  20.1   075    6    3   9.5   5.2   -1.8  28.8   -12.5    256  1.3
  6500   -5.8  21.6   090    6    3   9.7   5.3   -1.8  28.8   -12.6    227  1.2
  6250   -5.1  22.8   110    6    3   9.7   5.3   -1.8  28.8   -12.6    199  1.0
  6000   -4.4  24.1   125    6    3   9.7   5.3   -1.8  28.8   -12.6    170  0.9
  5750   -3.7  25.3   125    4    2   9.8   5.4   -1.8  28.7   -12.7    141  0.7
  5500   -2.9  26.8   125    2    1   9.2   5.1   -1.8  28.7   -12.7    112  0.6

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           11/26/2014 at 0800 MST          |       11/26/2014 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... +13.3  LI... +3.7               | K index... +10.1  LI... +5.1
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.5
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -61.3 -78.3  310  61 31  -0.1  -0.1 | -62.2 -80.0  310  56 29  -1.8  -1.0
 45000 -61.5 -78.7  320  83 43  -0.1  -0.1 | -64.8 -84.6  315  72 37  -0.6  -0.4
 40000 -61.8 -79.2  320  93 48  -0.3  -0.2 | -63.2 -81.8  315  84 43   1.1   0.6
 38000 -59.4 -74.9  325  97 50   7.0   3.8 | -59.4 -74.9  310  78 40   9.0   4.9
 36000 -55.2 -67.4  330 100 52   7.0   3.8 | -54.0 -65.2  300  67 35   9.0   4.9
 34000 -50.8 -59.4  335 103 53   8.2   4.5 | -48.8 -55.8  300  62 32   8.0   4.4
 32000 -45.9 -50.6  335 103 53   8.2   4.5 | -44.0 -47.2  310  69 36   8.0   4.4
 30000 -41.1 -42.0  335 102 52   7.5   4.1 | -39.4 -38.9  320  77 40   7.5   4.1
 29000 -38.8 -37.8  335  98 50   7.5   4.1 | -37.1 -34.8  325  81 42   7.5   4.1
 28000 -36.0 -32.8  335  93 48   7.5   4.1 | -34.3 -29.7  330  85 44   7.5   4.1
 27000 -33.8 -28.8  335  90 46   6.9   3.8 | -32.2 -26.0  330  88 45   6.6   3.6
 26000 -31.8 -25.2  335  86 44   6.9   3.8 | -30.2 -22.4  335  88 45   6.7   3.7
 25000 -29.7 -21.5  335  82 42   6.9   3.8 | -28.2 -18.8  335  89 46   6.7   3.7
 24000 -27.6 -17.7  335  79 41   7.1   3.9 | -26.2 -15.2  335  89 46   6.4   3.5
 23000 -25.5 -13.9  330  77 40   7.2   4.0 | -24.3 -11.7  335  87 45   6.3   3.4
 22000 -23.3  -9.9  330  75 39   7.2   4.0 | -22.5  -8.5  335  85 44   6.3   3.5
 21000 -21.3  -6.3  330  73 38   5.7   3.1 | -20.6  -5.1  335  82 42   5.8   3.2
 20000 -19.6  -3.3  330  73 38   5.6   3.1 | -18.9  -2.0  335  78 40   5.8   3.2
 19500 -18.8  -1.8  330  73 37   5.6   3.1 | -18.0  -0.4  335  76 39   5.8   3.2
 19000 -17.9  -0.2  330  72 37   5.6   3.1 | -17.2   1.0  335  74 38   5.8   3.2
 18500 -17.1   1.2  330  72 37   5.1   2.8 | -16.3   2.7  335  72 37   5.8   3.2
 18000 -16.4   2.5  330  71 37   4.9   2.7 | -15.5   4.1  335  71 36   5.8   3.2
 17500 -15.7   3.7  330  70 36   4.9   2.7 | -14.6   5.7  330  69 36   5.6   3.1
 17000 -14.9   5.2  330  69 36   5.5   3.0 | -13.9   7.0  330  68 35   4.3   2.3
 16500 -14.1   6.6  325  68 35   5.5   3.0 | -13.3   8.1  330  66 34   4.3   2.3
 16000 -13.3   8.1  325  67 34   5.1   2.8 | -12.6   9.3  330  64 33   5.2   2.8
 15500 -12.6   9.3  325  65 34   5.1   2.8 | -11.8  10.8  330  62 32   5.2   2.9
 15000 -11.8  10.8  325  64 33   6.1   3.3 | -11.1  12.0  330  59 31   5.0   2.7
 14500 -10.8  12.6  325  62 32   6.8   3.8 | -10.4  13.3  330  59 30   4.9   2.7
 14000  -9.2  15.4  320  61 31   8.2   4.5 |  -9.2  15.4  330  58 30   7.6   4.2
 13500  -8.0  17.6  320  60 31   8.3   4.5 |  -8.0  17.6  325  58 30   7.6   4.2
 13000  -6.8  19.8  320  59 30   8.0   4.4 |  -7.0  19.4  325  58 30   7.1   3.9
 12500  -5.7  21.7  315  59 30   8.1   4.4 |  -5.9  21.4  325  57 29   7.0   3.9
 12000  -4.5  23.9  315  59 30   7.1   3.9 |  -5.0  23.0  320  57 29   6.3   3.5
 11500  -3.5  25.7  310  57 29   6.9   3.8 |  -4.1  24.6  315  56 29   6.2   3.4
 11000  -2.6  27.3  310  56 29   5.0   2.7 |  -3.2  26.2  315  55 28   5.4   3.0
 10500  -2.0  28.4  305  53 27   4.7   2.6 |  -2.4  27.7  310  52 27   5.7   3.1
 10250  -1.7  28.9  305  52 27   3.2   1.8 |  -2.1  28.2  310  51 26   3.5   1.9
 10000  -1.5  29.3  305  51 26   1.5   0.8 |  -1.9  28.6  310  50 26   2.3   1.2
  9750  -1.4  29.5  305  49 25   2.4   1.3 |  -1.6  29.1  310  48 25   4.3   2.4
  9500  -1.2  29.8  300  46 24   3.7   2.1 |  -1.3  29.7  310  45 23   5.2   2.9
  9250  -1.0  30.2  300  43 22   1.0   0.5 |  -1.0  30.2  310  43 22   3.1   1.7
  9000  -1.1  30.0  300  40 21  -2.2  -1.2 |  -0.9  30.4  310  40 21   0.8   0.4
  8750  -1.3  29.7  295  37 19  -3.9  -2.1 |  -0.8  30.6  310  37 19   0.5   0.3
  8500  -1.6  29.1  295  33 17  -5.2  -2.8 |  -0.8  30.6  310  33 17  -0.5  -0.3
  8250  -2.1  28.2  290  28 14  -8.0  -4.4 |  -0.9  30.4  310  29 15  -3.9  -2.1
  8000  -2.8  27.0  290  22 12  -9.9  -5.4 |  -1.4  29.5  310  24 12  -5.9  -3.3
  7750  -3.5  25.7  285  17  9 -11.0  -6.0 |  -1.8  28.8  310  18  9  -5.9  -3.2
  7500  -4.3  24.3  275  12  6  -8.5  -4.7 |  -2.2  28.0  315  13  7  -5.1  -2.8
  7250  -4.6  23.7  255   8  4  -2.8  -1.5 |  -2.5  27.5  320   8  4  -3.2  -1.8
  7000  -4.8  23.4  215   5  3  -2.9  -1.6 |  -2.7  27.1  340   3  2  -3.9  -2.1
  6750  -5.0  23.0  170   7  3  -1.5  -0.8 |  -2.9  26.8  085   3  1  -1.5  -0.8
  6500  -4.9  23.2  155   8  4   2.7   1.5 |  -2.8  27.0  105   6  3   6.0   3.3
  6250  -4.7  23.5  150   9  4   3.5   1.9 |  -2.2  28.0  105   6  3   9.1   5.0
  6000  -4.4  24.1  145   9  5   4.9   2.7 |  -1.5  29.3  105   7  3   8.3   4.6
  5750  -3.9  25.0  140   9  5   8.8   4.9 |  -0.8  30.6  105   7  4  12.2   6.7
  5500  -3.2  26.2  140   8  4   9.7   5.3 |   0.3  32.5  105   7  4  17.5   9.6

           11/26/2014 at 1400 MST          |       11/26/2014 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... +8.0  LI... +6.1                | K index... +9.2  LI... +5.4
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -63.1 -81.6  310  57 29  -2.9  -1.6 | -63.7 -82.7  310  53 27  -2.6  -1.4
 45000 -67.3 -89.1  320  77 40  -0.3  -0.2 | -67.5 -89.5  315  71 37   1.1   0.6
 40000 -64.1 -83.4  310  74 38   2.3   1.2 | -62.5 -80.5  315  71 36   3.4   1.8
 38000 -59.5 -75.1  310  71 37   9.7   5.3 | -58.3 -72.9  310  68 35   8.3   4.5
 36000 -53.7 -64.7  305  68 35   9.7   5.3 | -53.4 -64.1  300  64 33   8.3   4.5
 34000 -48.1 -54.6  305  67 34   8.6   4.7 | -48.6 -55.5  300  65 33   7.4   4.0
 32000 -43.0 -45.4  310  69 35   8.6   4.7 | -44.2 -47.6  310  71 36   7.4   4.0
 30000 -38.4 -37.1  315  71 37   5.8   3.2 | -39.9 -39.8  315  75 39   6.8   3.7
 29000 -36.7 -34.1  320  72 37   5.8   3.2 | -37.9 -36.2  320  75 39   6.8   3.7
 28000 -34.5 -30.1  325  74 38   5.8   3.2 | -35.9 -32.6  325  76 39   6.8   3.7
 27000 -32.6 -26.7  330  76 39   7.5   4.1 | -33.1 -27.6  330  76 39   8.4   4.6
 26000 -30.4 -22.7  330  78 40   7.4   4.1 | -30.6 -23.1  330  75 39   8.4   4.6
 25000 -28.2 -18.8  335  79 41   7.4   4.1 | -28.1 -18.6  330  75 38   8.4   4.6
 24000 -26.0 -14.8  335  80 41   7.3   4.0 | -25.7 -14.3  330  74 38   7.0   3.8
 23000 -23.8 -10.8  335  79 41   7.3   4.0 | -23.6 -10.5  330  71 37   7.1   3.9
 22000 -21.6  -6.9  335  78 40   7.3   4.0 | -21.5  -6.7  330  69 35   7.1   3.9
 21000 -19.6  -3.3  335  77 40   5.5   3.0 | -19.6  -3.3  330  66 34   5.2   2.9
 20000 -17.9  -0.2  335  74 38   5.7   3.1 | -18.0  -0.4  330  62 32   5.4   2.9
 19500 -17.1   1.2  335  73 38   5.7   3.1 | -17.3   0.9  330  60 31   5.4   2.9
 19000 -16.2   2.8  330  72 37   5.8   3.2 | -16.5   2.3  330  58 30   5.4   3.0
 18500 -15.4   4.3  330  70 36   5.6   3.0 | -15.7   3.7  325  56 29   4.9   2.7
 18000 -14.6   5.7  330  68 35   5.5   3.0 | -15.0   5.0  325  54 28   4.9   2.7
 17500 -13.8   7.2  330  66 34   5.2   2.8 | -14.3   6.3  325  51 26   5.1   2.8
 17000 -13.1   8.4  330  63 32   4.2   2.3 | -13.5   7.7  325  52 27   5.3   2.9
 16500 -12.5   9.5  330  60 31   4.0   2.2 | -12.7   9.1  325  53 27   5.3   2.9
 16000 -11.7  10.9  330  58 30   6.6   3.6 | -11.8  10.8  330  55 28   6.7   3.7
 15500 -10.8  12.6  330  56 29   6.4   3.5 | -10.9  12.4  330  58 30   6.6   3.6
 15000  -9.9  14.2  330  56 29   5.7   3.1 |  -9.9  14.2  330  59 30   5.9   3.2
 14500  -9.1  15.6  330  58 30   5.4   3.0 |  -9.1  15.6  330  57 29   5.8   3.2
 14000  -7.9  17.8  330  58 30   5.4   3.0 |  -7.7  18.1  330  55 28   7.0   3.8
 13500  -7.1  19.2  330  55 28   5.5   3.0 |  -6.7  19.9  330  55 28   6.9   3.8
 13000  -6.3  20.7  325  53 27   5.0   2.7 |  -5.7  21.7  330  54 28   6.5   3.6
 12500  -5.6  21.9  325  52 27   5.0   2.7 |  -4.7  23.5  330  52 27   6.6   3.6
 12000  -4.9  23.2  325  51 26   5.5   3.0 |  -3.8  25.2  325  51 26   6.1   3.3
 11500  -4.1  24.6  320  49 25   5.6   3.1 |  -2.9  26.8  325  49 25   6.3   3.5
 11000  -3.3  26.1  315  47 24   4.6   2.5 |  -2.1  28.2  325  47 24   3.9   2.1
 10500  -2.7  27.1  315  44 23   5.1   2.8 |  -1.6  29.1  320  44 23   4.6   2.5
 10250  -2.4  27.7  315  43 22   2.1   1.1 |  -1.3  29.7  320  43 22   1.5   0.8
 10000  -2.3  27.9  315  42 22   2.8   1.5 |  -1.3  29.7  320  42 22   2.0   1.1
  9750  -1.9  28.6  310  40 21   7.0   3.8 |  -0.9  30.4  315  40 21   5.5   3.0
  9500  -1.4  29.5  310  38 20   7.0   3.8 |  -0.6  30.9  315  38 20   4.7   2.6
  9250  -0.9  30.4  310  36 19   5.4   3.0 |  -0.2  31.6  310  36 19   4.3   2.4
  9000  -0.6  30.9  305  34 18   3.9   2.1 |   0.1  32.2  310  35 18   4.5   2.5
  8750  -0.3  31.5  305  32 17   4.8   2.7 |   0.5  32.9  310  33 17   6.3   3.4
  8500   0.1  32.2  305  29 15   4.1   2.3 |   0.9  33.6  305  32 16   6.6   3.6
  8250   0.3  32.5  305  26 14   1.6   0.9 |   1.4  34.5  305  30 15   6.1   3.3
  8000   0.3  32.5  300  23 12   0.5   0.3 |   1.8  35.2  305  28 14   6.0   3.3
  7750   0.4  32.7  300  19 10   0.5   0.3 |   2.3  36.1  300  26 14   6.3   3.5
  7500   0.4  32.7  295  16  8  -0.8  -0.4 |   2.7  36.9  300  24 13   4.7   2.6
  7250   0.3  32.5  290  11  6  -1.3  -0.7 |   3.0  37.4  300  22 11   3.2   1.7
  7000   0.2  32.4  275   6  3  -1.8  -1.0 |   3.2  37.8  295  19 10   3.8   2.1
  6750   0.1  32.2  230   3  2   0.2   0.1 |   3.5  38.3  290  16  8   3.3   1.8
  6500   0.3  32.5  175   4  2   6.8   3.7 |   3.7  38.7  285  13  6   1.8   1.0
  6250   1.0  33.8  165   4  2   9.3   5.1 |   3.8  38.8  270   9  5   0.9   0.5
  6000   1.7  35.1  155   4  2   9.6   5.3 |   3.9  39.0  245   6  3   2.1   1.1
  5750   2.5  36.5  150   5  2  12.4   6.8 |   4.0  39.2  210   5  3   1.4   0.8
  5500   3.4  38.1  145   5  2  13.1   7.2 |   4.0  39.2  185   4  2  -2.5  -1.4
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
                   Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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