Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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709
UXUS97 KBOU 041324
SRGBOU

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
0624 MST Thursday, February 4, 2016

This forecast is for Thursday, February 4, 2016:

If the trigger temperature of 34.7 F/1.5 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 298 ft/min (1.5 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 9624 ft MSL (4339 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 36.0 F/2.7 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1315 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 7418 ft MSL (2133 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 02/05....... Fair

Wave Soaring Index............................. Good
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1700 MST)......... No change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... 17583 ft MSL (12298 ft AGL)
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1700 MST)................ Weak PVA
Potential height of wave....................... 34801 ft MSL (29516 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Friday 02/05.......... Poor

Remarks... None

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:04:46 / 17:21:01 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 16 min 14 sec (616 min 14 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:13:15 MST... 34.06 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 02/04/2016 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 22616 ft MSL (17331 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 15668 ft MSL (10382 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +15.3
K index......................... -12.0

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -53.2 -63.8   290   41   21   4.2   2.3  116.2 241.1    64.4      M    M
 45000  -54.0 -65.2   310   43   22  -1.2  -0.6   88.7 191.6    52.4      M    M
 40000  -57.4 -71.3   310   57   29   8.1   4.4   59.9 139.8    37.4      M    M
 38000  -58.1 -72.6   310   62   32   6.7   3.7   49.9 121.8    31.7      M    M
 36000  -59.5 -75.1   330   77   40   3.8   2.1   39.2 102.6    25.3      M    M
 34000  -60.4 -76.7   335   93   48   5.3   2.9   29.5  85.1    19.2      M    M
 32000  -56.3 -69.3   340   93   48   9.1   5.0   27.0  80.6    17.9      M    M
 30000  -50.4 -58.7   340   92   47   8.0   4.4   26.2  79.1    17.8      M    M
 29000  -48.2 -54.8   340   92   47   8.3   4.6   25.1  77.3    17.3      M    M
 28000  -45.4 -49.7   340   91   47   9.4   5.2   24.9  76.8    17.3      M    M
 27000  -42.6 -44.7   345   91   47   9.3   5.1   24.8  76.6    17.5      M    M
 26000  -40.1 -40.2   345   90   47   7.3   4.0   24.3  75.7    17.3      M    M
 25000  -37.9 -36.2   345   90   46   7.3   4.0   23.4  74.1    16.8      M    M
 24000  -35.4 -31.7   345   87   45   9.4   5.2   22.8  73.1    16.5      M    M
 23000  -32.6 -26.7   345   84   43   8.8   4.8   22.6  72.7    16.6      M    M
 22000  -30.4 -22.7   345   83   43   6.9   3.8   21.7  71.1    16.0      M    M
 21000  -28.4 -19.1   345   81   42   6.9   3.8   20.8  69.4    15.4      M    M
 20000  -26.3 -15.3   345   75   38   6.9   3.8   19.7  67.4    14.7      M    M
 19500  -25.3 -13.5   345   72   37   6.9   3.8   19.2  66.5    14.3      M    M
 19000  -24.3 -11.7   340   68   35   6.3   3.5   18.7  65.6    14.0      M    M
 18500  -24.4 -11.9   340   65   34  -8.7  -4.8   16.8  62.3    12.5      M    M
 18000  -24.4 -11.9   340   62   32   9.0   5.0   15.1  59.3    11.1      M    M
 17500  -24.1 -11.4   340   59   30  -3.5  -1.9   13.8  56.9    10.0      M    M
 17000  -24.1 -11.4   340   56   29   4.4   2.4   12.1  53.8     8.6      M    M
 16500  -23.6 -10.5   335   53   27   2.1   1.1   11.0  51.9     7.7      M    M
 16000  -23.0  -9.4   335   50   26   4.5   2.5   10.0  50.0     6.8      M    M
 15500  -22.5  -8.5   335   47   24   2.9   1.6    9.0  48.2     5.9      M    M
 15000  -21.8  -7.2   330   42   22   3.1   1.7    7.3  45.1     4.5      M    M
 14500  -21.4  -6.5   335   39   20   4.6   2.5    6.2  43.1     3.5      M    M
 14000  -20.3  -4.5   335   36   18   7.8   4.3    5.8  42.4     3.1      M    M
 13500  -19.1  -2.4   340   34   17   7.7   4.2    5.4  41.7     2.8      M    M
 13000  -18.0  -0.4   340   32   17   7.7   4.2    5.1  41.2     2.5      M    M
 12500  -16.8   1.8   345   30   16   7.7   4.2    4.8  40.6     2.3      M    M
 12000  -15.7   3.7   345   28   15   7.7   4.2    4.5  40.1     2.0      M    M
 11500  -14.5   5.9   345   23   12   7.7   4.2    4.2  39.5     1.7      M    M
 11000  -13.3   8.1   345   19   10   7.7   4.2    3.8  38.9     1.4      M    M
 10500  -12.2  10.0   320   18    9   7.8   4.3    3.5  38.3     1.1      M    M
 10250  -11.6  11.1   315   19   10   7.5   4.1    3.3  38.0     0.9      M    M
 10000  -11.1  12.0   310   20   10   4.6   2.5    3.1  37.5     0.7      M    M
  9750  -10.9  12.4   310   22   11   2.7   1.5    2.5  36.6     0.2      M    M
  9500  -10.7  12.7   310   24   12   2.9   1.6    2.0  35.6    -0.3    289  1.5
  9250  -10.4  13.3   305   26   13   4.6   2.5    1.5  34.7    -0.8    275  1.4
  9000  -10.0  14.0   305   28   14   6.1   3.4    1.2  34.2    -1.1    254  1.3
  8750   -9.6  14.7   300   25   13   5.7   3.1    0.9  33.6    -1.4    234  1.2
  8500   -9.1  15.6   300   22   11   5.8   3.2    0.6  33.0    -1.7    213  1.1
  8250   -8.7  16.3   295   19   10   5.8   3.2    0.3  32.5    -2.0    193  1.0
  8000   -8.3  17.1   290   16    8   5.8   3.2   -0.0  32.0    -2.3    172  0.9
  7750   -7.8  18.0   285   15    8   5.8   3.2   -0.3  31.4    -2.6    152  0.8
  7500   -7.4  18.7   275   14    7   5.8   3.2   -0.6  30.8    -2.9    132  0.7
  7250   -7.0  19.4   270   14    7   5.8   3.2   -0.9  30.3    -3.2    111  0.6
  7000   -6.5  20.3   260   14    7   5.8   3.2   -1.2  29.8    -3.5     91  0.5
  6750   -6.1  21.0   250   12    6   5.7   3.1   -1.6  29.2    -3.8     70  0.4
  6500   -5.7  21.7   240   10    5   6.1   3.3   -1.9  28.7    -4.1     50  0.3
  6250   -5.2  22.6   225    9    4   4.6   2.5   -2.2  28.1    -4.4     29  0.1
  6000   -4.9  23.2   205    8    4   4.3   2.3   -2.6  27.3    -4.9     13  0.1
  5750   -5.0  23.0   200    7    4 -14.2  -7.8   -3.4  25.8    -5.8      9  0.0
  5500   -7.7  18.1   190    7    3 -56.6 -31.1   -6.8  19.7    -9.1     81  0.4

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           02/04/2016 at 0800 MST          |       02/04/2016 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... -4.7  LI... +11.0               | K index... -3.7  LI... +10.2
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.9                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -53.3 -63.9  295  33 17  -0.0  -0.0 | -54.0 -65.2  295  32 16  -0.0  -0.0
 45000 -53.3 -63.9  305  44 23  -0.0  -0.0 | -54.0 -65.2  305  37 19  -0.1  -0.0
 40000 -62.5 -80.5  315  51 26  -7.1  -3.9 | -61.7 -79.1  295  41 21  -5.9  -3.2
 38000 -65.7 -86.3  315  54 28   6.7   3.7 | -64.3 -83.7  290  43 22   5.6   3.1
 36000 -62.6 -80.7  320  57 29   5.2   2.9 | -61.5 -78.7  290  45 23   4.6   2.5
 34000 -59.5 -75.1  325  61 31   4.8   2.7 | -58.4 -73.1  285  48 25   6.4   3.5
 32000 -53.8 -64.8  320  64 33   8.9   4.9 | -53.5 -64.3  290  49 25   8.2   4.5
 30000 -48.4 -55.1  320  66 34   8.2   4.5 | -48.6 -55.5  295  49 25   8.2   4.5
 29000 -46.1 -51.0  320  64 33   7.7   4.2 | -46.2 -51.2  295  48 25   8.0   4.4
 28000 -43.8 -46.8  325  63 32   7.7   4.2 | -43.8 -46.8  295  48 24   8.0   4.4
 27000 -41.5 -42.7  325  61 31   7.7   4.2 | -41.4 -42.5  300  47 24   8.0   4.4
 26000 -39.1 -38.4  330  58 30   8.1   4.5 | -39.0 -38.2  300  44 23   8.1   4.5
 25000 -36.6 -33.9  330  56 29   8.1   4.5 | -36.5 -33.7  305  40 20   8.1   4.5
 24000 -34.2 -29.6  335  53 27   8.1   4.5 | -34.1 -29.4  305  36 18   8.1   4.5
 23000 -31.8 -25.2  340  51 26   7.6   4.2 | -31.8 -25.2  310  33 17   7.4   4.1
 22000 -29.6 -21.3  340  51 26   7.6   4.2 | -29.6 -21.3  315  32 17   7.4   4.1
 21000 -27.3 -17.1  340  50 26   7.7   4.2 | -27.3 -17.1  320  32 16   7.4   4.1
 20000 -25.2 -13.4  340  51 26   7.0   3.8 | -25.1 -13.2  325  32 16   7.3   4.0
 19500 -24.2 -11.6  340  52 27   7.0   3.8 | -24.1 -11.4  330  32 17   7.3   4.0
 19000 -23.1  -9.6  340  52 27   7.0   3.8 | -23.0  -9.4  330  33 17   7.4   4.0
 18500 -22.1  -7.8  340  53 27   7.1   3.9 | -21.9  -7.4  335  34 17   7.4   4.1
 18000 -21.1  -6.0  340  53 27   5.8   3.2 | -20.8  -5.4  335  34 17   6.6   3.6
 17500 -20.3  -4.5  345  53 27   5.7   3.1 | -19.3  -2.7  340  34 17   6.7   3.7
 17000 -19.4  -2.9  345  52 27   5.3   2.9 | -18.4  -1.1  340  33 17   6.6   3.6
 16500 -18.4  -1.1  345  50 26   4.9   2.7 | -17.4   0.7  340  33 17   6.8   3.7
 16000 -17.7   0.1  340  48 25   3.6   2.0 | -16.5   2.3  340  32 17   5.1   2.8
 15500 -17.2   1.0  340  45 23   3.1   1.7 | -15.8   3.6  340  32 17   4.8   2.7
 15000 -16.8   1.8  340  43 22   2.7   1.5 | -15.1   4.8  335  32 16   3.8   2.1
 14500 -16.4   2.5  335  38 20   2.3   1.3 | -14.6   5.7  335  30 16   3.0   1.6
 14000 -16.0   3.2  335  34 17   2.3   1.2 | -14.2   6.4  335  29 15   2.7   1.5
 13500 -15.7   3.7  335  29 15   2.1   1.1 | -13.8   7.2  330  26 13   2.2   1.2
 13000 -15.4   4.3  335  25 13   2.5   1.4 | -13.5   7.7  330  23 12   2.4   1.3
 12500 -14.8   5.4  335  21 11   4.5   2.5 | -13.1   8.4  335  19 10   2.9   1.6
 12000 -14.2   6.4  335  17  9   4.7   2.6 | -12.6   9.3  335  15  8   3.3   1.8
 11500 -13.4   7.9  330  13  7   6.0   3.3 | -12.0  10.4  335  11  6   4.4   2.4
 11000 -12.5   9.5  325  10  5   6.5   3.6 | -11.4  11.5  330   7  4   5.1   2.8
 10500 -11.4  11.5  320   8  4   7.6   4.2 | -10.5  13.1  310   4  2   6.2   3.4
 10250 -10.8  12.6  320   6  3   8.6   4.7 | -10.0  14.0  285   3  2   6.5   3.6
 10000 -10.2  13.6  315   5  3   4.9   2.7 |  -9.6  14.7  260   3  2   3.2   1.8
  9750  -9.9  14.2  315   5  3   6.8   3.7 |  -9.4  15.1  245   3  2   5.0   2.7
  9500  -9.1  15.6  310   5  3  12.1   6.6 |  -8.7  16.3  230   4  2   9.2   5.1
  9250  -8.3  17.1  305   5  3  10.2   5.6 |  -8.1  17.4  220   5  3   7.5   4.1
  9000  -7.6  18.3  305   6  3   7.8   4.3 |  -7.6  18.3  215   6  3   5.4   3.0
  8750  -7.1  19.2  310   7  4   6.7   3.7 |  -7.2  19.0  210   7  3   6.1   3.4
  8500  -6.5  20.3  310   9  5   8.9   4.9 |  -6.7  19.9  210   7  3   8.3   4.5
  8250  -5.9  21.4  310  11  5   4.6   2.5 |  -6.1  21.0  205   7  4   6.7   3.7
  8000  -5.8  21.6  305  13  7   0.0   0.0 |  -5.7  21.7  225   6  3   5.6   3.1
  7750  -5.8  21.6  300  16  8  -0.6  -0.3 |  -5.2  22.6  250   5  3   6.2   3.4
  7500  -5.9  21.4  295  19 10  -1.9  -1.0 |  -4.8  23.4  280   6  3   4.5   2.5
  7250  -6.1  21.0  295  20 10  -1.1  -0.6 |  -4.6  23.7  285   8  4   0.9   0.5
  7000  -6.1  21.0  290  18  9  -0.8  -0.5 |  -4.6  23.7  285  10  5   0.2   0.1
  6750  -6.2  20.8  290  17  9  -0.5  -0.3 |  -4.6  23.7  285  11  6  -0.7  -0.4
  6500  -6.2  20.8  285  14  7   0.6   0.3 |  -4.7  23.5  280  11  6  -0.2  -0.1
  6250  -6.2  20.8  280  11  6  -1.4  -0.8 |  -4.6  23.7  275   8  4   1.3   0.7
  6000  -6.2  20.8  270   9  5   5.7   3.1 |  -4.6  23.7  260   6  3   1.2   0.6
  5750  -6.2  20.8  260   7  4 -20.7 -11.4 |  -4.5  23.9  240   4  2  -2.0  -1.1
  5500 -10.1  13.8  220   6  3 -79.5 -43.6 |  -5.0  23.0  210   4  2  -6.9  -3.8

           02/04/2016 at 1400 MST          |       02/04/2016 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... -0.9  LI... +8.7                | K index... +11.3  LI... +5.9
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.2                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -55.0 -67.0  290  35 18  -0.0  -0.0 | -54.2 -65.6  295  32 17  -0.2  -0.1
 45000 -55.1 -67.2  290  36 18  -0.1  -0.0 | -54.5 -66.1  285  36 18  -0.2  -0.1
 40000 -59.9 -75.8  270  42 22  -3.6  -2.0 | -54.9 -66.8  275  46 24  -0.3  -0.1
 38000 -61.6 -78.9  260  47 24   1.9   1.0 | -55.2 -67.4  270  51 26  -3.1  -1.7
 36000 -60.7 -77.3  260  52 27   1.4   0.8 | -57.1 -70.8  255  51 26  -2.8  -1.5
 34000 -59.8 -75.6  260  58 30   4.3   2.3 | -58.8 -73.8  240  56 29  -2.4  -1.3
 32000 -54.8 -66.6  260  52 27   8.4   4.6 | -55.4 -67.7  235  51 26   6.4   3.5
 30000 -49.8 -57.6  260  46 24   8.5   4.7 | -51.6 -60.9  235  46 24   7.6   4.2
 29000 -47.3 -53.1  260  44 23   8.4   4.6 | -48.9 -56.0  235  43 22   9.1   5.0
 28000 -44.7 -48.5  260  42 22   8.4   4.6 | -46.2 -51.2  235  40 21   9.1   5.0
 27000 -42.2 -44.0  260  40 21   8.5   4.6 | -43.4 -46.1  235  37 19   9.1   5.0
 26000 -39.8 -39.6  260  38 20   8.1   4.4 | -40.9 -41.6  240  35 18   8.0   4.4
 25000 -37.3 -35.1  265  35 18   8.1   4.4 | -38.5 -37.3  240  34 18   7.9   4.4
 24000 -34.9 -30.8  265  33 17   8.1   4.5 | -36.2 -33.2  240  33 17   7.9   4.4
 23000 -32.6 -26.7  265  30 15   7.7   4.2 | -33.7 -28.7  240  31 16   8.3   4.5
 22000 -30.3 -22.5  265  26 14   7.7   4.2 | -31.3 -24.3  240  28 14   8.3   4.5
 21000 -28.0 -18.4  270  23 12   7.7   4.2 | -28.8 -19.8  235  25 13   8.4   4.6
 20000 -25.7 -14.3  275  20 10   7.7   4.2 | -26.6 -15.9  235  23 12   7.3   4.0
 19500 -24.5 -12.1  280  19 10   7.7   4.2 | -25.5 -13.9  235  23 12   7.3   4.0
 19000 -23.4 -10.1  280  17  9   7.7   4.2 | -24.4 -11.9  235  22 12   7.3   4.0
 18500 -22.2  -8.0  285  16  8   7.7   4.2 | -23.3  -9.9  235  22 11   7.2   4.0
 18000 -21.1  -6.0  290  15  8   7.6   4.2 | -21.6  -6.9  240  21 11   7.9   4.3
 17500 -19.4  -2.9  300  14  7   7.6   4.2 | -20.4  -4.7  240  20 10   8.0   4.4
 17000 -18.3  -0.9  305  13  7   6.9   3.8 | -19.4  -2.9  245  19 10   6.3   3.5
 16500 -17.3   0.9  310  13  7   7.0   3.8 | -18.4  -1.1  250  19 10   6.5   3.6
 16000 -16.2   2.8  310  13  7   6.9   3.8 | -17.5   0.5  255  18  9   6.0   3.3
 15500 -15.2   4.6  310  14  7   6.9   3.8 | -16.6   2.1  255  18  9   5.8   3.2
 15000 -14.2   6.4  310  15  8   5.3   2.9 | -15.7   3.7  260  17  9   4.6   2.5
 14500 -13.6   7.5  305  15  8   4.3   2.4 | -15.2   4.6  265  17  9   3.5   1.9
 14000 -12.9   8.8  300  15  8   3.3   1.8 | -14.7   5.5  270  17  9   3.3   1.8
 13500 -12.6   9.3  300  14  7   2.0   1.1 | -14.3   6.3  275  17  9   3.0   1.7
 13000 -12.3   9.9  295  14  7   2.4   1.3 | -13.8   7.2  275  16  8   3.4   1.9
 12500 -11.8  10.8  290  13  7   3.3   1.8 | -13.2   8.2  280  16  8   4.8   2.6
 12000 -11.3  11.7  290  12  6   3.4   1.9 | -12.5   9.5  285  16  8   5.3   2.9
 11500 -10.8  12.6  280  10  5   3.8   2.1 | -11.5  11.3  290  17  9   7.1   3.9
 11000 -10.2  13.6  275   9  5   4.1   2.3 | -10.4  13.3  295  18  9   6.7   3.7
 10500  -9.5  14.9  265   9  4   4.7   2.6 |  -9.5  14.9  295  20 10   5.9   3.2
 10250  -9.2  15.4  260   9  4   4.8   2.6 |  -9.1  15.6  295  21 11   6.5   3.5
 10000  -8.9  16.0  255   9  4   3.0   1.7 |  -8.7  16.3  295  22 12   3.1   1.7
  9750  -8.6  16.5  255   9  5   5.7   3.1 |  -8.5  16.7  295  22 11   3.5   1.9
  9500  -8.0  17.6  260  10  5   9.1   5.0 |  -8.0  17.6  295  22 11   7.1   3.9
  9250  -7.4  18.7  265  10  5   7.7   4.2 |  -7.6  18.3  295  22 11   6.0   3.3
  9000  -6.9  19.6  270  11  6   6.3   3.5 |  -7.1  19.2  295  21 11   5.3   2.9
  8750  -6.4  20.5  275  12  6   6.0   3.3 |  -6.8  19.8  295  19 10   5.2   2.8
  8500  -6.0  21.2  280  13  6   6.9   3.8 |  -6.3  20.7  295  16  8   5.7   3.1
  8250  -5.5  22.1  285  13  7   5.4   3.0 |  -5.9  21.4  295  14  7   5.4   2.9
  8000  -5.2  22.6  285  12  6   3.9   2.2 |  -5.5  22.1  290  11  6   5.1   2.8
  7750  -4.8  23.4  285  11  6   4.5   2.5 |  -5.1  22.8  290   9  4   5.4   3.0
  7500  -4.5  23.9  280   9  5   4.7   2.6 |  -4.7  23.5  285   7  3   6.1   3.4
  7250  -4.1  24.6  275   8  4   4.7   2.6 |  -4.2  24.4  275   5  3   7.2   4.0
  7000  -3.8  25.2  265   6  3   4.9   2.7 |  -3.6  25.5  265   4  2   7.5   4.1
  6750  -3.4  25.9  245   5  2   4.4   2.4 |  -3.0  26.6  250   4  2   8.0   4.4
  6500  -3.1  26.4  225   4  2   2.9   1.6 |  -2.4  27.7  235   4  2   7.1   3.9
  6250  -3.0  26.6  205   4  2   2.7   1.5 |  -2.0  28.4  215   3  2   5.7   3.1
  6000  -2.8  27.0  185   5  2   1.8   1.0 |  -1.6  29.1  195   3  2   7.0   3.8
  5750  -2.7  27.1  170   6  3   6.0   3.3 |  -1.2  29.8  175   4  2   4.2   2.3
  5500  -1.9  28.6  165   4  2  15.5   8.5 |  -1.2  29.8  155   3  1  -3.0  -1.7
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
                   Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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