Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
000
UXUS97 KBOU 121221
SRGBOU
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
0621 MDT Sunday, May 12, 2013
This forecast is for Sunday, May 12, 2013:
If the trigger temperature of 66.9 F/19.4 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1452 ft/min (7.4 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 20660 ft MSL (15375 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 79.0 F/26.6 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 0900 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1500 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 17050 ft MSL (11765 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 05/13....... Excellent
Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1800 MDT)......... No change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... 16857 ft MSL (11572 ft AGL)
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1800 MDT)................ Neither
Potential height of wave....................... 17350 ft MSL (12065 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Monday 05/13.......... Poor
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:47:34 / 20:03:55 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 16 min 21 sec (856 min 21 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:55:55 MDT... 68.54 degrees
Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 05/12/2013 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 12164 ft MSL (6879 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 15782 ft MSL (10497 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 17899 ft MSL (12613 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -0.7
K index......................... +18.4
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -61.4 -78.5 335 33 17 -3.1 -1.7 97.7 207.8 40.9 M M
45000 -61.7 -79.1 360 35 18 -0.6 -0.3 71.2 160.2 27.7 M M
40000 -61.8 -79.2 015 65 34 -4.0 -2.2 48.1 118.6 14.5 M M
38000 -59.7 -75.5 015 64 33 -4.2 -2.3 42.4 108.4 11.0 M M
36000 -57.7 -71.9 005 44 22 6.0 3.3 36.7 98.1 7.4 M M
34000 -52.9 -63.2 010 52 27 8.0 4.4 35.3 95.6 6.6 M M
32000 -47.5 -53.5 005 44 23 9.3 5.1 34.6 94.2 6.2 M M
30000 -41.5 -42.7 355 37 19 8.4 4.6 34.0 93.2 5.9 M M
29000 -38.9 -38.0 355 36 18 8.4 4.6 33.2 91.7 5.4 M M
28000 -36.4 -33.5 355 35 18 8.4 4.6 32.6 90.6 5.0 M M
27000 -33.9 -29.0 355 34 17 8.4 4.6 32.1 89.7 4.6 M M
26000 -31.4 -24.5 355 33 17 8.4 4.6 31.7 89.0 4.4 M M
25000 -28.8 -19.8 355 32 16 8.4 4.6 31.4 88.5 4.2 M M
24000 -26.4 -15.5 355 29 15 8.3 4.5 30.8 87.5 3.8 M M
23000 -24.1 -11.4 355 27 14 6.4 3.5 30.1 86.2 3.2 M M
22000 -22.6 -8.7 340 25 13 -2.0 -1.1 28.4 83.1 1.8 M M
21000 -20.9 -5.6 320 26 13 9.6 5.3 26.9 80.5 0.5 M M
20000 -19.1 -2.4 330 24 12 9.2 5.1 25.6 78.0 -0.6 1400 7.1
19500 -17.7 0.1 330 23 12 9.7 5.3 25.5 77.9 -0.7 1343 6.8
19000 -16.3 2.7 325 21 11 12.2 6.7 25.5 77.8 -0.8 1286 6.5
18500 -15.9 3.4 335 26 13 -0.6 -0.3 24.3 75.7 -1.9 1260 6.4
18000 -14.8 5.4 345 29 15 6.9 3.8 23.9 75.0 -2.2 1212 6.2
17500 -13.7 7.3 345 31 16 7.2 3.9 23.5 74.2 -2.6 1164 5.9
17000 -12.6 9.3 340 32 17 7.3 4.0 23.2 73.7 -2.9 1114 5.7
16500 -12.2 10.0 340 33 17 3.5 1.9 22.0 71.5 -4.1 1090 5.5
16000 -11.2 11.8 335 35 18 7.2 4.0 21.5 70.7 -4.5 1043 5.3
15500 -9.3 15.3 335 35 18 9.6 5.3 21.2 70.1 -4.9 965 4.9
15000 -7.9 17.8 340 35 18 9.5 5.2 21.1 70.1 -4.9 907 4.6
14500 -6.5 20.3 340 35 18 9.5 5.2 21.1 70.0 -4.9 850 4.3
14000 -5.0 23.0 340 35 18 9.5 5.2 21.1 70.0 -5.0 792 4.0
13500 -3.6 25.5 345 33 17 9.5 5.2 21.0 69.9 -5.1 735 3.7
13000 -2.2 28.0 345 32 17 9.5 5.2 21.0 69.8 -5.1 677 3.4
12500 -0.8 30.6 350 31 16 9.5 5.2 20.9 69.7 -5.2 619 3.1
12000 0.7 33.3 350 30 15 9.0 5.0 20.9 69.7 -5.2 562 2.9
11500 1.9 35.4 345 27 14 8.3 4.5 20.7 69.2 -5.5 510 2.6
11000 3.1 37.6 340 25 13 8.3 4.5 20.4 68.8 -5.8 458 2.3
10500 4.4 39.9 335 22 12 8.4 4.6 20.2 68.4 -6.0 406 2.1
10250 5.0 41.0 335 21 11 8.7 4.8 20.2 68.3 -6.1 380 1.9
10000 5.7 42.3 335 20 10 8.7 4.8 20.1 68.1 -6.2 353 1.8
9750 6.3 43.3 340 20 10 8.7 4.8 20.0 68.0 -6.3 326 1.7
9500 7.0 44.6 340 19 10 8.7 4.8 19.9 67.8 -6.4 299 1.5
9250 7.6 45.7 345 19 10 8.7 4.8 19.8 67.7 -6.5 272 1.4
9000 8.3 46.9 345 19 10 8.7 4.8 19.8 67.6 -6.6 245 1.2
8750 8.9 48.0 340 18 9 8.7 4.8 19.7 67.4 -6.7 218 1.1
8500 9.6 49.3 340 17 9 8.8 4.8 19.6 67.3 -6.8 191 1.0
8250 10.2 50.4 335 16 8 8.5 4.7 19.5 67.1 -6.9 164 0.8
8000 10.8 51.4 330 15 8 7.5 4.1 19.4 66.9 -7.0 139 0.7
7750 11.4 52.5 325 15 8 7.2 3.9 19.2 66.5 -7.2 115 0.6
7500 11.9 53.4 320 16 8 7.3 4.0 19.0 66.2 -7.4 92 0.5
7250 12.4 54.3 315 16 8 7.3 4.0 18.8 65.9 -7.7 69 0.4
7000 12.9 55.2 310 17 9 7.2 4.0 18.6 65.5 -7.9 46 0.2
6750 13.5 56.3 310 17 9 7.4 4.0 18.4 65.2 -8.1 23 0.1
6500 14.0 57.2 305 16 8 6.9 3.8 18.2 64.8 -8.3 M M
6250 14.5 58.1 305 16 8 8.7 4.8 18.1 64.5 -8.6 M M
6000 14.9 58.8 300 16 8 -2.3 -1.3 17.8 64.0 -8.9 M M
5750 13.9 57.0 300 11 5 -19.0 -10.4 16.1 61.0 -10.7 M M
5500 12.1 53.8 290 5 2 -20.3 -11.1 13.8 56.9 -13.2 26 0.1
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
05/12/2013 at 0900 MDT | 05/12/2013 at 1200 MDT
|
K index... +19.4 LI... +0.3 | K index... +18.8 LI... -1.2
CAPE... 0.0 CIN... -1.0 | CAPE... +24.6 CIN... -39.1
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -62.3 -80.1 345 23 12 -0.3 -0.2 | -63.0 -81.4 350 25 13 -0.6 -0.4
45000 -62.6 -80.7 355 37 19 0.8 0.4 | -63.9 -83.0 005 38 20 -0.1 -0.1
40000 -61.5 -78.7 010 65 34 0.9 0.5 | -64.1 -83.4 020 63 32 -0.2 -0.1
38000 -58.9 -74.0 015 69 36 5.6 3.1 | -60.4 -76.7 020 66 34 7.9 4.4
36000 -55.5 -67.9 015 70 36 5.6 3.1 | -55.6 -68.1 020 66 34 7.9 4.4
34000 -51.5 -60.7 020 70 36 8.2 4.5 | -49.9 -57.8 020 66 34 8.9 4.9
32000 -46.0 -50.8 015 66 34 8.2 4.5 | -44.6 -48.3 025 65 34 8.9 4.9
30000 -41.0 -41.8 015 63 32 8.4 4.6 | -39.5 -39.1 025 63 32 8.2 4.5
29000 -38.5 -37.3 015 62 32 8.4 4.6 | -37.0 -34.6 020 61 31 8.2 4.5
28000 -36.0 -32.8 015 60 31 8.4 4.6 | -34.5 -30.1 020 59 30 8.2 4.5
27000 -33.5 -28.3 015 58 30 7.8 4.3 | -32.3 -26.1 020 56 29 7.2 4.0
26000 -31.2 -24.2 015 55 28 7.8 4.3 | -30.1 -22.2 020 53 27 7.2 4.0
25000 -28.8 -19.8 015 52 27 7.8 4.3 | -28.0 -18.4 020 50 26 7.2 4.0
24000 -26.6 -15.9 015 49 25 7.1 3.9 | -25.7 -14.3 020 47 24 8.0 4.4
23000 -24.4 -11.9 010 46 23 7.2 3.9 | -23.3 -9.9 020 44 23 8.0 4.4
22000 -22.3 -8.1 010 43 22 7.2 4.0 | -20.9 -5.6 015 41 21 8.1 4.4
21000 -20.2 -4.4 005 40 20 7.0 3.8 | -19.1 -2.4 015 38 20 5.1 2.8
20000 -18.1 -0.6 360 36 19 7.0 3.9 | -17.6 0.3 010 36 18 5.1 2.8
19500 -17.1 1.2 360 34 18 7.1 3.9 | -16.9 1.6 005 35 18 5.2 2.9
19000 -16.1 3.0 360 33 17 7.1 3.9 | -16.1 3.0 005 34 17 6.2 3.4
18500 -15.0 5.0 360 31 16 7.2 3.9 | -15.0 5.0 005 33 17 7.5 4.1
18000 -13.9 7.0 360 30 16 7.2 3.9 | -13.9 7.0 360 32 17 7.4 4.1
17500 -12.9 8.8 360 30 15 7.1 3.9 | -12.7 9.1 360 31 16 8.4 4.6
17000 -11.9 10.6 355 30 15 7.1 3.9 | -11.5 11.3 360 29 15 8.4 4.6
16500 -10.8 12.6 355 30 15 7.1 3.9 | -9.7 14.5 355 27 14 8.2 4.5
16000 -9.2 15.4 355 29 15 7.1 3.9 | -8.4 16.9 355 25 13 8.2 4.5
15500 -8.2 17.2 350 29 15 7.3 4.0 | -7.2 19.0 355 23 12 7.9 4.3
15000 -7.1 19.2 350 28 14 7.3 4.0 | -6.1 21.0 355 22 12 7.8 4.3
14500 -6.1 21.0 350 26 13 8.2 4.5 | -4.9 23.2 355 22 11 8.5 4.6
14000 -4.7 23.5 350 25 13 8.9 4.9 | -3.6 25.5 350 22 11 8.7 4.8
13500 -3.4 25.9 350 24 12 8.9 4.9 | -2.3 27.9 350 23 12 8.3 4.5
13000 -2.1 28.2 350 23 12 8.8 4.8 | -1.2 29.8 350 22 12 7.7 4.2
12500 -0.8 30.6 345 22 11 8.9 4.9 | -0.1 31.8 350 22 11 7.8 4.3
12000 0.5 32.9 345 22 11 9.1 5.0 | 1.1 34.0 345 21 11 8.2 4.5
11500 1.9 35.4 345 21 11 9.1 5.0 | 2.3 36.1 345 19 10 8.3 4.5
11000 3.3 37.9 345 20 10 9.0 4.9 | 3.5 38.3 345 17 9 8.3 4.5
10500 4.7 40.5 340 19 10 6.6 3.6 | 4.8 40.6 345 16 8 5.6 3.1
10250 5.0 41.0 340 19 10 5.0 2.7 | 5.1 41.2 345 15 8 4.9 2.7
10000 5.6 42.1 340 19 10 10.6 5.8 | 5.7 42.3 345 14 7 11.0 6.0
9750 6.5 43.7 340 18 9 13.4 7.4 | 6.6 43.9 345 13 7 13.3 7.3
9500 7.4 45.3 340 17 9 10.2 5.6 | 7.5 45.5 340 12 6 10.1 5.5
9250 8.0 46.4 335 17 9 6.5 3.6 | 8.1 46.6 340 12 6 6.4 3.5
9000 8.5 47.3 335 16 8 8.7 4.8 | 8.6 47.5 340 12 6 10.4 5.7
8750 9.3 48.7 335 15 8 10.7 5.9 | 9.6 49.3 340 12 6 13.1 7.2
8500 10.0 50.0 330 14 7 9.2 5.0 | 10.5 50.9 340 11 6 10.4 5.7
8250 10.7 51.3 330 14 7 8.3 4.5 | 11.2 52.2 340 11 6 9.1 5.0
8000 11.3 52.3 325 13 7 9.0 4.9 | 11.9 53.4 340 11 6 9.9 5.4
7750 12.0 53.6 320 13 6 9.3 5.1 | 12.6 54.7 340 11 6 10.3 5.6
7500 12.7 54.9 315 12 6 8.6 4.7 | 13.4 56.1 340 11 6 10.1 5.5
7250 13.3 55.9 310 13 7 7.9 4.3 | 14.1 57.4 340 11 6 9.7 5.3
7000 13.9 57.0 305 13 7 9.0 4.9 | 14.9 58.8 340 11 6 10.5 5.8
6750 14.5 58.1 305 14 7 5.9 3.2 | 15.7 60.3 340 11 6 10.6 5.8
6500 14.7 58.5 295 13 7 2.8 1.6 | 16.4 61.5 335 11 5 10.0 5.5
6250 14.9 58.8 290 13 7 2.3 1.3 | 17.2 63.0 335 10 5 9.8 5.3
6000 15.1 59.2 280 13 7 6.6 3.6 | 17.9 64.2 335 10 5 11.3 6.2
5750 15.8 60.4 275 12 6 12.7 7.0 | 19.0 66.2 335 10 5 17.6 9.6
5500 16.6 61.9 270 10 5 9.3 5.1 | 20.5 68.9 335 9 5 22.8 12.5
05/12/2013 at 1500 MDT | 05/12/2013 at 1800 MDT
|
K index... +19.3 LI... -1.2 | K index... +22.4 LI... -1.1
CAPE... +40.2 CIN... -39.4 | CAPE... +40.0 CIN... -44.1
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.7 -82.7 355 26 13 -1.1 -0.6 | -64.3 -83.7 355 23 12 -0.7 -0.4
45000 -65.2 -85.4 010 40 21 0.4 0.2 | -65.1 -85.2 010 38 20 0.7 0.4
40000 -64.6 -84.3 020 62 32 -0.1 -0.0 | -64.1 -83.4 030 66 34 1.4 0.8
38000 -60.2 -76.4 020 61 32 8.7 4.8 | -59.4 -74.9 025 58 30 8.6 4.7
36000 -55.0 -67.0 025 59 30 8.7 4.8 | -54.2 -65.6 025 49 25 8.6 4.7
34000 -49.1 -56.4 025 57 29 8.8 4.8 | -48.9 -56.0 020 46 23 9.0 5.0
32000 -43.8 -46.8 025 56 29 8.8 4.8 | -43.5 -46.3 020 46 24 9.0 5.0
30000 -38.9 -38.0 020 53 27 7.8 4.3 | -38.5 -37.3 015 46 24 8.0 4.4
29000 -36.6 -33.9 020 51 26 7.8 4.3 | -36.1 -33.0 015 45 23 8.0 4.4
28000 -34.2 -29.6 020 50 26 7.8 4.3 | -33.7 -28.7 015 45 23 8.0 4.4
27000 -31.8 -25.2 020 49 25 7.9 4.3 | -30.8 -23.4 015 44 23 7.7 4.2
26000 -29.5 -21.1 020 48 25 7.9 4.3 | -28.5 -19.3 015 43 22 7.7 4.2
25000 -27.1 -16.8 020 48 24 7.9 4.3 | -26.2 -15.2 015 42 22 7.8 4.3
24000 -24.7 -12.5 020 46 24 8.3 4.5 | -23.9 -11.0 015 39 20 7.4 4.1
23000 -22.2 -8.0 020 43 22 8.3 4.5 | -21.7 -7.1 015 35 18 7.5 4.1
22000 -19.7 -3.5 020 40 21 8.5 4.7 | -19.5 -3.1 010 31 16 7.7 4.2
21000 -17.9 -0.2 020 37 19 5.1 2.8 | -17.6 0.3 010 28 15 6.4 3.5
20000 -16.4 2.5 015 34 17 5.1 2.8 | -15.7 3.7 005 27 14 6.4 3.5
19500 -15.6 3.9 010 32 17 5.2 2.9 | -14.7 5.5 360 26 14 6.4 3.5
19000 -14.9 5.2 010 31 16 6.5 3.6 | -13.8 7.2 360 26 13 6.8 3.8
18500 -13.7 7.3 005 30 16 7.7 4.2 | -12.8 9.0 355 25 13 7.0 3.9
18000 -12.6 9.3 005 29 15 7.7 4.2 | -11.7 10.9 355 24 12 7.2 3.9
17500 -11.4 11.5 005 28 15 8.2 4.5 | -10.6 12.9 350 23 12 8.4 4.6
17000 -9.6 14.7 360 27 14 8.1 4.4 | -9.4 15.1 350 22 12 8.3 4.6
16500 -8.5 16.7 360 26 13 7.8 4.3 | -8.1 17.4 345 22 12 8.4 4.6
16000 -7.3 18.9 355 25 13 7.7 4.2 | -6.9 19.6 345 23 12 8.4 4.6
15500 -6.1 21.0 355 24 12 8.4 4.6 | -5.7 21.7 340 24 12 8.2 4.5
15000 -4.9 23.2 355 23 12 8.5 4.6 | -4.5 23.9 340 24 12 7.9 4.3
14500 -3.6 25.5 350 22 11 8.4 4.6 | -3.4 25.9 340 24 12 7.9 4.4
14000 -2.4 27.7 350 23 12 8.3 4.6 | -1.6 29.1 335 22 11 8.2 4.5
13500 -1.2 29.8 345 23 12 8.2 4.5 | -0.4 31.3 335 21 11 8.0 4.4
13000 0.0 32.0 345 22 11 8.2 4.5 | 0.7 33.3 335 19 10 7.8 4.3
12500 1.2 34.2 340 21 11 8.1 4.5 | 1.9 35.4 335 18 9 8.2 4.5
12000 2.4 36.3 340 19 10 8.0 4.4 | 3.2 37.8 335 17 9 8.8 4.8
11500 3.5 38.3 340 16 8 8.1 4.5 | 4.5 40.1 335 16 8 8.9 4.9
11000 4.7 40.5 335 14 7 8.1 4.4 | 5.8 42.4 335 14 7 9.0 4.9
10500 6.0 42.8 330 12 6 5.3 2.9 | 7.2 45.0 330 13 7 5.2 2.9
10250 6.2 43.2 330 11 6 5.1 2.8 | 7.4 45.3 330 12 6 5.4 3.0
10000 6.9 44.4 330 11 6 11.2 6.2 | 8.1 46.6 330 11 6 11.8 6.5
9750 7.8 46.0 330 10 5 12.8 7.0 | 9.0 48.2 330 10 5 12.3 6.7
9500 8.6 47.5 325 9 5 9.9 5.4 | 9.9 49.8 325 9 5 9.1 5.0
9250 9.2 48.6 325 9 5 6.7 3.7 | 10.4 50.7 325 9 4 5.6 3.1
9000 9.8 49.6 325 9 4 9.9 5.4 | 10.9 51.6 320 8 4 8.4 4.6
8750 10.6 51.1 325 8 4 11.9 6.5 | 11.5 52.7 315 7 3 9.6 5.3
8500 11.5 52.7 325 8 4 10.3 5.7 | 12.2 54.0 310 6 3 8.7 4.8
8250 12.2 54.0 325 8 4 9.8 5.4 | 12.8 55.0 305 5 3 8.1 4.5
8000 12.9 55.2 325 8 4 9.9 5.4 | 13.4 56.1 305 5 3 9.1 5.0
7750 13.7 56.7 325 8 4 9.9 5.4 | 14.1 57.4 300 5 3 10.2 5.6
7500 14.4 57.9 320 8 4 10.1 5.5 | 14.9 58.8 300 5 3 10.0 5.5
7250 15.2 59.4 320 8 4 10.3 5.7 | 15.6 60.1 300 5 3 9.6 5.3
7000 16.0 60.8 320 8 4 9.6 5.3 | 16.4 61.5 295 5 3 10.4 5.7
6750 16.7 62.1 320 7 4 9.8 5.4 | 17.1 62.8 295 5 3 10.6 5.8
6500 17.4 63.3 320 7 4 10.7 5.9 | 17.9 64.2 295 5 2 9.9 5.4
6250 18.2 64.8 320 7 4 10.1 5.5 | 18.6 65.5 295 5 2 9.6 5.3
6000 19.0 66.2 320 7 4 11.5 6.3 | 19.4 66.9 295 5 2 10.6 5.8
5750 20.0 68.0 315 7 4 17.1 9.4 | 20.2 68.4 290 5 2 13.0 7.2
5500 21.5 70.7 315 6 3 22.1 12.1 | 21.2 70.2 290 4 2 13.9 7.6
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at
North Latitude: 39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
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- Page last modified: May 1st, 2013 15:32 UTC