Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
000
UXUS97 KBOU 221215
SRGBOU

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
0515 MST Sunday, February 22, 2015

This forecast is for Sunday, February 22, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 19.8 F/-6.8 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 0 ft/min (0.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 8122 ft MSL (2837 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 17.0 F/-8.8 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... None
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. None
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 02/23....... Poor

Wave Soaring Index............................. Excellent
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1700 MST)......... Snow
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... 11922 ft MSL (6637 ft AGL)
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1700 MST)................ Weak PVA
Potential height of wave....................... 12659 ft MSL (7374 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Monday 02/23.......... Poor

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:42:46 / 17:42:21 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 59 min 35 sec (659 min 35 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:12:50 MST... 40.16 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 02/22/2015 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 9260 ft MSL (3975 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 8698 ft MSL (3412 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +21.3
K index......................... -7.8

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -56.3 -69.3   290   52   27  -1.0  -0.6  111.1 231.9    67.4      M    M
 45000  -54.2 -65.6   270   58   30   5.3   2.9   89.4 193.0    59.0      M    M
 40000  -54.4 -65.9   275   77   40   4.0   2.2   64.8 148.7    47.4      M    M
 38000  -55.0 -67.0   265   82   42   6.4   3.5   55.1 131.1    42.1      M    M
 36000  -53.9 -65.0   265  101   52  -0.5  -0.3   47.9 118.2    38.4      M    M
 34000  -54.4 -65.9   260  125   65  -1.3  -0.7   38.7 101.7    33.0      M    M
 32000  -52.7 -62.9   260  122   63   1.2   0.6   32.9  91.3    29.7      M    M
 30000  -49.0 -56.2   260  117   60   7.7   4.2   29.9  85.9    28.3      M    M
 29000  -46.5 -51.7   260  115   59   3.7   2.0   28.4  83.2    27.6      M    M
 28000  -45.3 -49.5   255  112   58   5.2   2.9   26.2  79.2    26.3      M    M
 27000  -43.7 -46.7   255  105   54   6.1   3.4   24.4  76.0    25.2      M    M
 26000  -41.6 -42.9   250   98   50   7.3   4.0   23.4  74.1    24.8      M    M
 25000  -39.4 -38.9   250   91   47   7.3   4.0   22.5  72.6    24.4      M    M
 24000  -37.1 -34.8   255   82   42   8.6   4.7   21.7  71.0    24.0      M    M
 23000  -34.5 -30.1   260   84   43   9.0   4.9   21.2  70.2    23.9      M    M
 22000  -31.9 -25.4   265   85   44   9.4   5.2   21.0  69.7    24.0      M    M
 21000  -30.9 -23.6   270   87   45   0.3   0.2   18.6  65.6    22.3      M    M
 20000  -30.7 -23.3   275   60   31   0.9   0.5   15.4  59.7    19.9      M    M
 19500  -30.3 -22.5   270   54   28   5.1   2.8   14.1  57.4    19.0      M    M
 19000  -29.4 -20.9   265   49   25   6.1   3.3   13.5  56.3    18.5      M    M
 18500  -28.5 -19.3   260   49   25   6.0   3.3   12.9  55.1    18.1      M    M
 18000  -27.5 -17.5   255   49   25   4.2   2.3   12.2  54.0    17.7      M    M
 17500  -27.3 -17.1   255   44   23   3.5   1.9   10.8  51.5    16.5      M    M
 17000  -26.4 -15.5   255   40   20   6.7   3.7   10.2  50.3    16.1      M    M
 16500  -25.6 -14.1   260   35   18   4.5   2.5    9.5  49.1    15.5      M    M
 16000  -24.6 -12.3   260   30   15   8.8   4.9    8.9  48.1    15.1      M    M
 15500  -23.3  -9.9   255   27   14   8.5   4.7    8.8  47.9    15.1      M    M
 15000  -22.1  -7.8   250   25   13   7.9   4.3    8.5  47.3    14.9      M    M
 14500  -20.4  -4.7   245   25   13   7.8   4.3    8.0  46.4    14.5      M    M
 14000  -19.1  -2.4   245   25   13   9.5   5.2    7.8  46.1    14.4      M    M
 13500  -17.9  -0.2   240   26   13   8.4   4.6    7.6  45.7    14.3      M    M
 13000  -19.2  -2.6   240   26   13 -15.2  -8.4    4.6  40.2    11.6      M    M
 12500  -19.7  -3.5   230   27   14  -0.5  -0.3    2.4  36.4     9.7      M    M
 12000  -20.0  -4.0   220   27   14 -15.8  -8.7    0.5  32.9     8.0      M    M
 11500  -22.1  -7.8   215   14    7  -2.0  -1.1   -3.4  25.9     4.5      M    M
 11000  -21.6  -6.9   185    4    2   6.2   3.4   -4.5  24.0     3.5      M    M
 10500  -20.8  -5.4   205    3    2   5.7   3.2   -5.1  22.8     2.9      M    M
 10250  -20.3  -4.5   220    3    2   5.7   3.1   -5.4  22.2     2.6      M    M
 10000  -19.9  -3.8   235    3    2   5.7   3.1   -5.7  21.7     2.3      M    M
  9750  -19.5  -3.1   255    2    1   5.6   3.1   -6.1  21.1     2.0      M    M
  9500  -19.1  -2.4   295    2    1   5.6   3.1   -6.4  20.5     1.7      M    M
  9250  -18.7  -1.7   335    2    1   5.6   3.1   -6.7  19.9     1.4      M    M
  9000  -18.3  -0.9   350    3    2   5.6   3.1   -7.0  19.4     1.1      M    M
  8750  -17.8  -0.0   010    4    2   5.6   3.1   -7.4  18.8     0.8      M    M
  8500  -17.4   0.7   020    4    2   5.6   3.1   -7.7  18.2     0.4      M    M
  8250  -17.0   1.4   030    5    3   5.6   3.1   -8.0  17.6     0.1      M    M
  8000  -16.6   2.1   035    6    3   5.6   3.1   -8.3  17.0    -0.2    174  0.9
  7750  -16.2   2.8   040    8    4   5.6   3.1   -8.6  16.4    -0.5    154  0.8
  7500  -15.8   3.6   040    9    5   5.6   3.1   -9.0  15.9    -0.8    134  0.7
  7250  -15.3   4.5   045   10    5   5.7   3.1   -9.3  15.3    -1.1    114  0.6
  7000  -14.9   5.2   045   12    6   5.2   2.9   -9.6  14.7    -1.4     94  0.5
  6750  -14.5   5.9   045   10    5   7.1   3.9   -9.9  14.1    -1.8     75  0.4
  6500  -13.9   7.0   045    9    4   8.9   4.9  -10.0  14.0    -1.9     48  0.2
  6250  -13.3   8.1   040    7    4   8.7   4.8  -10.1  13.8    -2.0     22  0.1
  6000  -12.6   9.3   040    5    3   9.7   5.3  -10.1  13.7    -2.0      M    M
  5750  -11.8  10.8   030    5    2  10.0   5.5  -10.1  13.8    -2.0      M    M
  5500  -11.1  12.0   020    4    2  10.0   5.5  -10.1  13.8    -2.0      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           02/22/2015 at 0800 MST          |       02/22/2015 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... -11.5  LI... +288.6             | K index... -11.3  LI... +290.4
CAPE... +10.9  CIN... -0.2                 | CAPE... +23.5  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -54.8 -66.6  295  34 17   0.9   0.5 | -54.9 -66.8  280  29 15   1.4   0.8
 45000 -53.3 -63.9  280  46 23   0.9   0.5 | -52.9 -63.2  270  42 21   1.4   0.7
 40000 -54.1 -65.4  270  71 36  -0.7  -0.4 | -53.2 -63.8  270  64 33  -0.5  -0.3
 38000 -54.5 -66.1  270  82 42   0.1   0.0 | -53.5 -64.3  270  74 38  -0.7  -0.4
 36000 -54.4 -65.9  265  96 50   0.0   0.0 | -54.0 -65.2  270  94 48  -0.7  -0.4
 34000 -54.4 -65.9  265 110 57   0.2   0.1 | -54.4 -65.9  265 111 57  -1.3  -0.7
 32000 -51.6 -60.9  265 113 58   5.5   3.0 | -51.8 -61.2  265 110 57   5.3   2.9
 30000 -48.2 -54.8  260 111 57   5.5   3.0 | -48.6 -55.5  265 106 55   5.2   2.9
 29000 -46.4 -51.5  260 107 55   6.1   3.4 | -46.8 -52.2  265 103 53   6.5   3.6
 28000 -44.6 -48.3  260 104 53   6.1   3.4 | -44.8 -48.6  260 100 51   6.5   3.6
 27000 -42.8 -45.0  260 100 52   6.1   3.4 | -42.8 -45.0  260  97 50   6.5   3.6
 26000 -40.9 -41.6  260  96 50   6.5   3.6 | -40.8 -41.4  260  92 47   7.8   4.3
 25000 -38.9 -38.0  260  92 47   6.5   3.6 | -38.4 -37.1  260  83 43   7.8   4.3
 24000 -37.0 -34.6  260  88 45   6.5   3.6 | -36.1 -33.0  260  75 39   7.8   4.3
 23000 -35.0 -31.0  260  82 42   8.0   4.4 | -33.8 -28.8  260  68 35   7.2   4.0
 22000 -32.6 -26.7  260  73 38   7.9   4.3 | -31.7 -25.1  255  63 32   7.3   4.0
 21000 -30.2 -22.4  255  64 33   7.8   4.3 | -29.5 -21.1  255  58 30   7.3   4.0
 20000 -28.3 -18.9  255  58 30   5.3   2.9 | -27.4 -17.3  250  53 27   6.4   3.5
 19500 -27.5 -17.5  260  56 29   5.3   2.9 | -26.5 -15.7  250  50 26   6.3   3.5
 19000 -26.7 -16.1  265  55 28   5.3   2.9 | -25.6 -14.1  250  48 25   6.3   3.5
 18500 -25.9 -14.6  270  53 27   5.3   2.9 | -24.2 -11.6  245  44 23   6.5   3.6
 18000 -25.2 -13.4  275  53 27   5.5   3.0 | -23.3  -9.9  245  41 21   4.9   2.7
 17500 -24.3 -11.7  270  49 25   5.8   3.2 | -22.5  -8.5  250  36 19   5.0   2.8
 17000 -23.0  -9.4  270  44 22   4.7   2.6 | -21.8  -7.2  255  32 17   4.3   2.4
 16500 -22.4  -8.3  270  39 20   4.2   2.3 | -21.2  -6.2  260  32 16   4.0   2.2
 16000 -21.8  -7.2  270  34 17   5.1   2.8 | -20.6  -5.1  260  32 16   4.1   2.2
 15500 -20.8  -5.4  270  30 16   7.7   4.2 | -20.0  -4.0  265  30 15   4.4   2.4
 15000 -19.6  -3.3  265  28 14   7.5   4.1 | -19.3  -2.7  265  28 14   4.4   2.4
 14500 -18.8  -1.8  260  25 13   4.2   2.3 | -18.7  -1.7  265  24 12   4.1   2.3
 14000 -18.1  -0.6  255  24 12   4.9   2.7 | -18.1  -0.6  255  20 10   4.7   2.6
 13500 -17.9  -0.2  250  23 12  -1.7  -0.9 | -17.9  -0.2  250  18  9  -1.7  -0.9
 13000 -18.1  -0.6  245  22 11  -0.3  -0.1 | -18.0  -0.4  245  18  9  -0.3  -0.2
 12500 -18.7  -1.7  240  20 10  -8.2  -4.5 | -18.7  -1.7  245  17  9  -8.3  -4.5
 12000 -19.8  -3.6  235  18  9  -7.6  -4.2 | -19.8  -3.6  240  15  8  -7.7  -4.2
 11500 -20.6  -5.1  230  15  8  -4.0  -2.2 | -20.7  -5.3  230  13  7  -4.7  -2.6
 11000 -21.3  -6.3  225  12  6  -3.6  -2.0 | -21.4  -6.5  225  11  6  -3.9  -2.1
 10500 -21.2  -6.2  210   6  3   2.6   1.4 | -21.1  -6.0  210   8  4   5.4   3.0
 10250 -21.1  -6.0  180   4  2   2.3   1.3 | -20.8  -5.4  195   7  4   5.0   2.8
 10000 -20.9  -5.6  135   4  2   1.2   0.7 | -20.4  -4.7  175   6  3   3.6   2.0
  9750 -20.8  -5.4  120   5  2   4.1   2.3 | -20.2  -4.4  170   6  3   4.2   2.3
  9500 -20.2  -4.4  115   5  3  10.8   5.9 | -19.7  -3.5  165   6  3   8.4   4.6
  9250 -19.3  -2.7  110   6  3  11.6   6.3 | -19.0  -2.2  150   6  3   9.0   4.9
  9000 -18.6  -1.5  110   7  3   8.0   4.4 | -18.4  -1.1  140   6  3   6.6   3.6
  8750 -18.1  -0.6  110   6  3   7.0   3.9 | -18.0  -0.4  135   6  3   6.6   3.6
  8500 -17.5   0.5  110   6  3   9.3   5.1 | -17.4   0.7  130   7  4   9.7   5.3
  8250 -16.8   1.8  110   6  3   9.3   5.1 | -16.6   2.1  125   7  4  10.1   5.5
  8000 -16.1   3.0  110   6  3   8.5   4.7 | -15.9   3.4  120   7  4   9.1   5.0
  7750 -15.5   4.1  110   5  3   9.3   5.1 | -15.2   4.6  120   7  4   9.8   5.4
  7500 -14.8   5.4  110   5  3   9.9   5.4 | -14.5   5.9  115   7  4  10.3   5.6
  7250 -14.1   6.6  110   5  3   9.5   5.2 | -13.7   7.3  115   7  3   9.8   5.4
  7000 -13.4   7.9  105   5  3   9.0   4.9 | -13.0   8.6  115   7  3   9.7   5.3
  6750 -12.7   9.1  105   5  3  10.0   5.5 | -12.3   9.9  115   6  3   9.7   5.3
  6500 -11.9  10.6  100   5  2  10.3   5.6 | -11.6  11.1  110   6  3   9.8   5.4
  6250 -11.2  11.8  100   5  2   9.3   5.1 | -10.8  12.6  110   6  3  10.0   5.5
  6000 -10.5  13.1  100   4  2   9.9   5.4 | -10.1  13.8  110   6  3  10.0   5.5
  5750  -9.7  14.5  100   4  2  11.2   6.1 |  -9.3  15.3  110   6  3  12.6   6.9
  5500  -8.8  16.2  095   4  2  12.3   6.8 |  -8.2  17.2  110   6  3  16.7   9.2

           02/22/2015 at 1400 MST          |       02/22/2015 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... -7.9  LI... +289.8              | K index... -3.8  LI... +288.9
CAPE... +20.0  CIN... -0.9                 | CAPE... +21.1  CIN... -1.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -55.9 -68.6  275  36 19   2.0   1.1 | -56.3 -69.3  275  41 21   1.7   0.9
 45000 -52.7 -62.9  270  46 24   2.1   1.1 | -53.6 -64.5  270  46 23   1.8   1.0
 40000 -52.9 -63.2  270  63 33  -0.3  -0.2 | -53.3 -63.9  270  65 33   0.1   0.0
 38000 -53.1 -63.6  270  73 38  -1.1  -0.6 | -53.3 -63.9  265  76 39  -0.1  -0.1
 36000 -53.8 -64.8  270  93 48  -1.1  -0.6 | -53.4 -64.1  265  95 49  -0.1  -0.1
 34000 -54.4 -65.9  270 114 58  -1.4  -0.8 | -53.5 -64.3  265 115 59  -0.7  -0.4
 32000 -51.9 -61.4  265 113 58   5.6   3.0 | -50.5 -58.9  265 115 59   5.9   3.3
 30000 -48.1 -54.6  265 106 55   6.1   3.3 | -46.5 -51.7  265 111 57   6.0   3.3
 29000 -46.1 -51.0  260 102 52   6.9   3.8 | -44.8 -48.6  260 107 55   5.8   3.2
 28000 -44.0 -47.2  260  98 50   6.9   3.8 | -43.0 -45.4  260 103 53   5.8   3.2
 27000 -41.9 -43.4  260  93 48   7.0   3.8 | -41.3 -42.3  260  99 51   5.9   3.2
 26000 -39.7 -39.5  260  87 45   8.3   4.5 | -39.3 -38.7  260  93 48   7.6   4.2
 25000 -37.2 -35.0  260  78 40   8.3   4.6 | -37.0 -34.6  260  86 44   7.7   4.2
 24000 -34.7 -30.5  260  69 35   8.3   4.5 | -34.7 -30.5  265  78 40   7.7   4.2
 23000 -32.4 -26.3  260  62 32   7.2   4.0 | -32.4 -26.3  265  70 36   7.7   4.2
 22000 -30.2 -22.4  255  60 31   7.2   4.0 | -30.1 -22.2  260  62 32   7.7   4.2
 21000 -28.1 -18.6  255  58 30   7.3   4.0 | -27.8 -18.0  260  54 28   7.8   4.3
 20000 -26.1 -15.0  250  53 27   6.1   3.3 | -25.8 -14.4  260  50 26   6.5   3.6
 19500 -25.2 -13.4  250  50 26   6.0   3.3 | -24.8 -12.6  255  50 26   6.5   3.6
 19000 -24.3 -11.7  250  47 24   6.0   3.3 | -23.8 -10.8  255  50 26   6.5   3.6
 18500 -23.5 -10.3  245  44 23   6.1   3.3 | -22.9  -9.2  255  50 26   6.5   3.6
 18000 -22.6  -8.7  245  42 21   5.4   3.0 | -21.9  -7.4  255  49 25   7.0   3.9
 17500 -21.8  -7.2  240  39 20   5.0   2.7 | -20.8  -5.4  255  47 24   7.2   4.0
 17000 -21.1  -6.0  240  36 19   4.7   2.6 | -19.7  -3.5  255  45 23   6.9   3.8
 16500 -20.6  -5.1  240  32 17   2.9   1.6 | -18.9  -2.0  255  42 22   5.1   2.8
 16000 -20.1  -4.2  235  28 15   2.9   1.6 | -18.1  -0.6  255  39 20   5.5   3.0
 15500 -19.1  -2.4  235  23 12   5.0   2.8 | -17.3   0.9  250  35 18   2.4   1.3
 15000 -18.4  -1.1  240  21 11   4.6   2.5 | -17.0   1.4  250  32 17   1.8   1.0
 14500 -18.0  -0.4  240  19 10   1.3   0.7 | -17.1   1.2  250  30 15  -2.8  -1.5
 14000 -17.8  -0.0  240  17  9   1.5   0.8 | -17.5   0.5  250  27 14  -2.2  -1.2
 13500 -17.7   0.1  235  15  8  -0.5  -0.3 | -18.3  -0.9  245  24 12  -8.2  -4.5
 13000 -17.8  -0.0  230  15  8  -0.1  -0.0 | -19.4  -2.9  240  20 10  -7.8  -4.3
 12500 -18.1  -0.6  225  14  7  -4.2  -2.3 | -20.3  -4.5  235  17  9  -5.3  -2.9
 12000 -18.6  -1.5  225  14  7  -3.8  -2.1 | -21.2  -6.2  220  14  7  -5.5  -3.0
 11500 -19.5  -3.1  215  14  7  -7.4  -4.0 | -20.9  -5.6  205  13  7   7.7   4.2
 11000 -20.5  -4.9  210  15  8  -5.0  -2.7 | -19.9  -3.8  190  13  7   7.0   3.8
 10500 -20.0  -4.0  195  14  7   8.9   4.9 | -18.7  -1.7  175  14  7   8.3   4.6
 10250 -19.4  -2.9  190  13  7   8.9   4.9 | -18.1  -0.6  170  14  7   9.6   5.3
 10000 -18.7  -1.7  185  13  7   5.1   2.8 | -17.5   0.5  160  15  8   4.2   2.3
  9750 -18.5  -1.3  180  13  6   4.3   2.4 | -17.4   0.7  160  15  8   4.1   2.2
  9500 -18.0  -0.4  175  12  6   9.3   5.1 | -16.7   1.9  155  16  8  10.3   5.7
  9250 -17.3   0.9  170  12  6   8.9   4.9 | -16.0   3.2  150  17  9   9.2   5.0
  9000 -16.7   1.9  165  11  6   5.9   3.3 | -15.4   4.3  145  17  9   6.6   3.6
  8750 -16.3   2.7  155  11  6   5.8   3.2 | -15.0   5.0  140  17  9   6.9   3.8
  8500 -15.8   3.6  145  11  6   9.2   5.0 | -14.3   6.3  135  17  9  10.3   5.7
  8250 -15.1   4.8  135  11  6   8.6   4.7 | -13.6   7.5  130  17  9   9.1   5.0
  8000 -14.5   5.9  130  11  6   7.0   3.8 | -13.0   8.6  125  17  9   7.4   4.1
  7750 -14.0   6.8  125  11  6   8.3   4.5 | -12.4   9.7  120  17  9   7.7   4.3
  7500 -13.3   8.1  115  11  6   9.8   5.3 | -11.8  10.8  115  17  9   7.9   4.4
  7250 -12.6   9.3  110  10  5   9.6   5.3 | -11.2  11.8  115  16  8   8.3   4.6
  7000 -11.9  10.6  105  10  5   9.4   5.1 | -10.6  12.9  110  16  8   8.4   4.6
  6750 -11.2  11.8  105  10  5   9.4   5.2 | -10.0  14.0  105  15  8   8.4   4.6
  6500 -10.5  13.1  100   9  5   9.7   5.3 |  -9.4  15.1  100  15  7   8.6   4.7
  6250  -9.8  14.4  095   9  5   9.9   5.5 |  -8.8  16.2  095  13  7   8.8   4.8
  6000  -9.1  15.6  095   9  4   9.9   5.5 |  -8.1  17.4  090  12  6   8.6   4.7
  5750  -8.3  17.1  095   8  4  12.1   6.6 |  -7.5  18.5  085  11  6   9.7   5.3
  5500  -7.2  19.0  090   8  4  15.3   8.4 |  -6.7  19.9  085  10  5  12.1   6.6
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
                   Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.