Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
UXUS97 KBOU 021244
SRGBOU

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
0644 MDT Monday, May 2, 2016

This forecast is for Monday, May 2, 2016:

If the trigger temperature of 45.0 F/7.2 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 396 ft/min (2.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 11857 ft MSL (6572 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 57.0 F/14.3 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1045 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 10187 ft MSL (4901 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Tuesday 05/03...... Good

Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1800 MDT)......... No change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... None
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1800 MDT)................ Weak NVA
Potential height of wave....................... 16137 ft MSL (10852 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Tuesday 05/03......... Poor

Remarks... None

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:58:12 / 19:54:22 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 13 hr 56 min 10 sec (836 min 10 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:56:28 MDT... 65.90 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 05/02/2016 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 5518 ft MSL (233 ft AGL)
Additional freezing level....... 6733 ft MSL (1448 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 14427 ft MSL (9142 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 13606 ft MSL (8320 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +3.7
K index......................... -32.3

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -56.8 -70.2   280   25   13   2.4   1.3  106.2 223.1    52.6      M    M
 45000  -55.6 -68.1   290   23   12   3.4   1.9   83.5 182.2    42.5      M    M
 40000  -54.8 -66.6   270   21   11  -4.8  -2.6   61.5 142.7    31.1      M    M
 38000  -56.4 -69.5   295   15    8  -5.4  -3.0   50.2 122.4    24.4      M    M
 36000  -56.5 -69.7   335    4    2   1.6   0.9   41.5 106.7    19.0      M    M
 34000  -54.7 -66.5   355   12    6   6.1   3.3   34.6  94.4    14.7      M    M
 32000  -51.0 -59.8   360   11    6   6.1   3.3   31.5  88.8    12.9      M    M
 30000  -47.3 -53.1   015    9    5   6.7   3.7   28.7  83.7    11.1      M    M
 29000  -44.9 -48.8   010    9    5   8.5   4.6   27.9  82.2    10.6      M    M
 28000  -42.4 -44.3   005   10    5   8.5   4.7   27.4  81.4    10.4      M    M
 27000  -39.8 -39.6   360   10    5   8.5   4.7   27.1  80.7    10.3      M    M
 26000  -37.3 -35.1   350   13    7   8.5   4.7   26.6  79.8    10.0      M    M
 25000  -34.7 -30.5   010   13    7   8.5   4.7   26.0  78.9     9.7      M    M
 24000  -32.2 -26.0   015   15    8   8.5   4.7   25.5  77.9     9.3      M    M
 23000  -30.4 -22.7   020   14    7   5.1   2.8   24.0  75.2     8.3      M    M
 22000  -28.7 -19.7   030   13    7   7.0   3.8   22.5  72.5     7.1      M    M
 21000  -26.7 -16.1   035   12    6   6.7   3.7   21.4  70.6     6.3      M    M
 20000  -24.2 -11.6   045   12    6   9.2   5.1   21.0  69.8     6.0      M    M
 19500  -22.8  -9.0   045   13    6   9.3   5.1   20.9  69.6     5.9      M    M
 19000  -21.4  -6.5   040   13    7   9.2   5.1   20.8  69.4     5.9      M    M
 18500  -20.0  -4.0   040   14    7   8.8   4.8   20.7  69.2     5.8      M    M
 18000  -18.7  -1.7   040   13    7   8.5   4.7   20.4  68.8     5.7      M    M
 17500  -17.5   0.5   035   12    6   8.5   4.6   20.2  68.4     5.5      M    M
 17000  -15.6   3.9   030   11    6   6.2   3.4   19.8  67.7     5.2      M    M
 16500  -14.8   5.4   030   11    5   5.9   3.2   19.2  66.5     4.7      M    M
 16000  -13.9   7.0   025   10    5   5.8   3.2   18.5  65.3     4.1      M    M
 15500  -13.0   8.6   015   10    5   5.8   3.2   17.8  64.1     3.5      M    M
 15000  -12.2  10.0   010   10    5   5.8   3.2   17.2  62.9     2.9      M    M
 14500  -11.3  11.7   360   10    5   5.8   3.2   16.5  61.7     2.4      M    M
 14000  -10.4  13.3   355   10    5   5.8   3.2   15.9  60.6     1.8      M    M
 13500   -9.5  14.9   355    8    4   5.8   3.2   15.3  59.5     1.2      M    M
 13000   -8.6  16.5   355    7    3   7.3   4.0   14.7  58.4     0.7      M    M
 12500   -7.5  18.5   360    5    3   7.5   4.1   14.3  57.8     0.4      M    M
 12000   -6.3  20.7   360    4    2   7.4   4.1   14.0  57.2     0.1      M    M
 11500   -5.2  22.6   360    4    2   6.5   3.6   13.6  56.5    -0.3    356  1.8
 11000   -4.7  23.5   005    5    2   1.5   0.8   12.6  54.6    -1.3    327  1.7
 10500   -4.4  24.1   005    5    2   3.2   1.7   11.4  52.5    -2.4    302  1.5
 10250   -4.2  24.4   005    5    3   3.3   1.8   10.9  51.6    -2.9    288  1.5
 10000   -4.0  24.8   350    5    2   2.7   1.5   10.3  50.6    -3.5    276  1.4
  9750   -4.0  24.8   330    5    2  -1.3  -0.7    9.7  49.4    -4.3    269  1.4
  9500   -4.4  24.1   315    5    3  -5.1  -2.8    8.6  47.5    -5.4    274  1.4
  9250   -4.9  23.2   300    6    3  -7.0  -3.8    7.4  45.3    -6.6    280  1.4
  9000   -5.3  22.5   290    7    4   1.5   0.8    6.2  43.2    -7.8    284  1.4
  8750   -4.7  23.5   290    7    3   9.2   5.1    6.1  42.9    -8.0    260  1.3
  8500   -4.1  24.6   285    6    3   7.2   3.9    5.9  42.6    -8.1    235  1.2
  8250   -3.5  25.7   285    6    3   7.7   4.2    5.7  42.3    -8.3    210  1.1
  8000   -2.9  26.8   280    6    3   7.6   4.2    5.6  42.0    -8.5    185  0.9
  7750   -2.4  27.7   275    5    3   7.9   4.3    5.4  41.7    -8.7    160  0.8
  7500   -1.8  28.8   270    4    2   8.0   4.4    5.3  41.5    -8.8    136  0.7
  7250   -1.2  29.8   265    3    1   8.0   4.4    5.1  41.2    -9.0    111  0.6
  7000   -0.6  30.9   245    2    1   8.0   4.4    5.0  41.0    -9.2     87  0.4
  6750   -0.1  31.8   255    2    1   8.1   4.4    4.9  40.8    -9.4     62  0.3
  6500    0.5  32.9   265    2    1   7.8   4.3    4.7  40.5    -9.6     38  0.2
  6250    1.1  34.0   275    2    1   8.9   4.9    4.6  40.3    -9.8     13  0.1
  6000    1.6  34.9   285    2    1   2.2   1.2    4.4  39.9   -10.0      M    M
  5750    1.2  34.2   230    1    1 -10.3  -5.6    3.3  37.9   -11.1      M    M
  5500    0.1  32.2   180    2    1 -18.7 -10.3    1.5  34.6   -13.0     19  0.1

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           05/02/2016 at 0900 MDT          |       05/02/2016 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... -23.1  LI... +7.1               | K index... -18.4  LI... +4.6
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.0                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -1.4
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -56.5 -69.7  280  24 12   0.7   0.4 | -56.7 -70.1  285  23 12   0.5   0.3
 45000 -55.4 -67.7  275  26 14   0.3   0.1 | -55.9 -68.6  285  29 15   0.1   0.1
 40000 -56.2 -69.2  305  16  8  -0.5  -0.3 | -56.5 -69.7  305  18  9  -0.4  -0.2
 38000 -56.4 -69.5  325  13  7   0.2   0.1 | -56.6 -69.9  320  14  7   0.5   0.3
 36000 -56.3 -69.3  360  11  6   0.2   0.1 | -56.2 -69.2  350  12  6   0.5   0.3
 34000 -55.3 -67.5  035  13  7   7.7   4.2 | -55.0 -67.0  015  13  7   7.5   4.1
 32000 -50.8 -59.4  045  16  8   7.4   4.1 | -50.5 -58.9  020  15  8   7.5   4.1
 30000 -46.3 -51.3  050  18 10   8.0   4.4 | -45.9 -50.6  025  16  8   8.4   4.6
 29000 -43.9 -47.0  050  17  9   8.0   4.4 | -43.4 -46.1  020  16  8   8.4   4.6
 28000 -41.5 -42.7  045  16  8   8.0   4.4 | -40.9 -41.6  020  17  9   8.4   4.6
 27000 -39.1 -38.4  045  15  8   7.9   4.4 | -38.4 -37.1  020  17  9   8.2   4.5
 26000 -36.7 -34.1  040  15  8   7.9   4.3 | -36.0 -32.8  015  16  8   8.0   4.4
 25000 -34.3 -29.7  035  14  7   7.9   4.3 | -33.5 -28.3  015  15  8   8.0   4.4
 24000 -31.9 -25.4  030  13  7   7.9   4.3 | -31.1 -24.0  010  14  7   7.9   4.3
 23000 -29.6 -21.3  025  13  7   7.8   4.3 | -28.8 -19.8  010  14  7   7.7   4.2
 22000 -27.3 -17.1  025  12  6   7.8   4.3 | -26.5 -15.7  010  13  7   7.7   4.2
 21000 -25.0 -13.0  020  12  6   7.6   4.2 | -24.2 -11.6  005  12  6   7.4   4.1
 20000 -22.7  -8.9  015  10  5   7.6   4.2 | -22.0  -7.6  360  12  6   7.4   4.1
 19500 -21.6  -6.9  015  10  5   7.6   4.2 | -20.9  -5.6  355  11  6   7.4   4.1
 19000 -20.4  -4.7  010   9  5   7.6   4.2 | -19.8  -3.6  355  11  6   7.4   4.1
 18500 -19.3  -2.7  010   9  5   8.0   4.4 | -18.1  -0.6  350  11  6   7.7   4.2
 18000 -18.0  -0.4  010   9  5   8.2   4.5 | -16.9   1.6  345  11  6   7.7   4.2
 17500 -16.2   2.8  010   8  4   7.7   4.2 | -15.8   3.6  345  11  6   7.6   4.2
 17000 -15.1   4.8  010   8  4   7.5   4.1 | -14.7   5.5  345  11  5   7.6   4.2
 16500 -13.9   7.0  010   8  4   7.1   3.9 | -13.5   7.7  345  11  5   7.4   4.0
 16000 -13.0   8.6  010   8  4   6.1   3.3 | -12.5   9.5  345  10  5   6.9   3.8
 15500 -12.0  10.4  010   9  4   6.2   3.4 | -11.4  11.5  345  10  5   6.9   3.8
 15000 -11.2  11.8  005   9  4   5.2   2.9 | -10.5  13.1  345  10  5   5.7   3.2
 14500 -10.4  13.3  005   9  4   5.3   2.9 |  -9.6  14.7  340  10  5   5.9   3.2
 14000  -9.6  14.7  360   9  4   5.5   3.0 |  -8.7  16.3  340  10  5   6.1   3.3
 13500  -8.8  16.2  360   8  4   5.5   3.0 |  -7.8  18.0  340   9  5   6.1   3.4
 13000  -8.0  17.6  355   8  4   5.9   3.3 |  -6.9  19.6  335   9  5   5.4   2.9
 12500  -7.1  19.2  355   8  4   6.0   3.3 |  -6.1  21.0  335   9  4   5.3   2.9
 12000  -6.2  20.8  355   8  4   5.7   3.2 |  -5.3  22.5  330   8  4   6.1   3.3
 11500  -5.4  22.3  350   8  4   5.7   3.1 |  -4.4  24.1  325   8  4   6.1   3.4
 11000  -4.6  23.7  350   8  4   5.6   3.1 |  -3.4  25.9  325   8  4   6.8   3.7
 10500  -3.8  25.2  345   7  4   6.2   3.4 |  -2.4  27.7  320   8  4   7.6   4.2
 10250  -3.4  25.9  345   7  4   3.6   2.0 |  -1.9  28.6  320   8  4   4.0   2.2
 10000  -3.3  26.1  340   7  4   1.7   1.0 |  -1.8  28.8  320   8  4   3.6   2.0
  9750  -3.1  26.4  340   7  4   4.3   2.4 |  -1.3  29.7  320   8  4   8.0   4.4
  9500  -2.7  27.1  335   7  4   5.4   3.0 |  -0.7  30.7  320   9  4   8.7   4.8
  9250  -2.4  27.7  335   7  4   3.5   1.9 |  -0.2  31.6  320   9  4   5.8   3.2
  9000  -2.3  27.9  330   7  4   1.8   1.0 |   0.1  32.2  325   9  4   3.2   1.8
  8750  -2.1  28.2  330   7  4   3.2   1.8 |   0.3  32.5  325   9  4   5.1   2.8
  8500  -1.9  28.6  325   7  3   3.5   1.9 |   0.7  33.3  330   8  4   5.0   2.8
  8250  -1.7  28.9  320   6  3   2.5   1.4 |   1.0  33.8  330   8  4   3.5   1.9
  8000  -1.5  29.3  310   5  3   1.8   1.0 |   1.2  34.2  335   7  4   2.9   1.6
  7750  -1.4  29.5  300   4  2   3.3   1.8 |   1.4  34.5  335   6  3   3.3   1.8
  7500  -1.0  30.2  280   4  2   5.4   3.0 |   1.7  35.1  335   5  3   4.5   2.5
  7250  -0.6  30.9  275   3  2   5.6   3.1 |   2.0  35.6  330   4  2   5.4   3.0
  7000  -0.2  31.6  265   3  1   5.3   2.9 |   2.4  36.3  320   2  1   5.4   2.9
  6750   0.2  32.4  255   2  1   6.1   3.4 |   2.7  36.9  285   1  1   5.2   2.8
  6500   0.7  33.3  255   2  1   6.3   3.5 |   3.1  37.6  255   1  1   8.3   4.6
  6250   1.1  34.0  260   2  1   5.3   2.9 |   3.8  38.8  255   1  1  11.1   6.1
  6000   1.5  34.7  265   1  1   6.5   3.5 |   4.6  40.3  250   1  1   9.9   5.4
  5750   2.0  35.6  265   1  1  11.3   6.2 |   5.4  41.7  255   1  0  13.9   7.6
  5500   3.0  37.4  270   1  1  16.7   9.1 |   6.7  44.1  255   1  0  21.2  11.7

           05/02/2016 at 1500 MDT          |       05/02/2016 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... -13.6  LI... +4.1               | K index... +10.7  LI... +2.1
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -1.2                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... 0.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -56.7 -70.1  285  25 13   0.6   0.3 | -56.6 -69.9  285  26 14   0.5   0.3
 45000 -55.8 -68.4  290  31 16  -0.0  -0.0 | -55.8 -68.4  290  34 17  -0.3  -0.1
 40000 -58.0 -72.4  305  21 11  -1.4  -0.8 | -58.8 -73.8  310  25 13  -1.9  -1.0
 38000 -57.7 -71.9  325  18  9   2.0   1.1 | -58.3 -72.9  335  22 11   2.9   1.6
 36000 -56.5 -69.7  360  18  9   2.0   1.1 | -56.6 -69.9  010  25 13   2.9   1.6
 34000 -54.7 -66.5  020  22 11   7.6   4.2 | -54.3 -65.7  030  33 17   7.4   4.1
 32000 -50.2 -58.4  015  21 11   7.4   4.1 | -49.9 -57.8  025  35 18   7.3   4.0
 30000 -45.6 -50.1  010  20 10   8.4   4.6 | -45.4 -49.7  025  35 18   8.2   4.5
 29000 -43.1 -45.6  010  19 10   8.4   4.6 | -42.3 -44.1  015  32 16   8.2   4.5
 28000 -40.0 -40.0  005  19 10   8.4   4.6 | -39.8 -39.6  010  29 15   8.2   4.5
 27000 -37.5 -35.5  360  19 10   8.5   4.6 | -37.3 -35.1  005  27 14   8.6   4.7
 26000 -35.0 -31.0  360  18  9   8.5   4.7 | -34.8 -30.6  360  26 13   8.6   4.7
 25000 -32.4 -26.3  360  18  9   8.5   4.7 | -32.2 -26.0  355  25 13   8.6   4.7
 24000 -29.9 -21.8  360  18  9   7.7   4.2 | -29.6 -21.3  350  25 13   8.3   4.5
 23000 -27.7 -17.9  355  18  9   7.4   4.1 | -27.2 -17.0  345  25 13   8.2   4.5
 22000 -25.5 -13.9  345  18  9   7.4   4.1 | -24.8 -12.6  345  26 13   8.2   4.5
 21000 -23.2  -9.8  335  18  9   7.4   4.1 | -22.4  -8.3  340  26 13   6.3   3.4
 20000 -21.0  -5.8  330  18  9   7.4   4.1 | -20.4  -4.7  335  27 14   6.7   3.7
 19500 -19.9  -3.8  330  18  9   7.4   4.1 | -19.4  -2.9  335  27 14   6.8   3.7
 19000 -18.8  -1.8  330  17  9   7.4   4.1 | -18.3  -0.9  335  27 14   6.8   3.7
 18500 -17.7   0.1  325  17  9   7.0   3.8 | -17.3   0.9  330  27 14   6.3   3.5
 18000 -16.7   1.9  325  18  9   7.0   3.8 | -16.4   2.5  330  27 14   6.4   3.5
 17500 -15.7   3.7  325  18  9   7.0   3.9 | -15.5   4.1  330  27 14   6.6   3.6
 17000 -14.6   5.7  325  18  9   7.1   3.9 | -14.5   5.9  330  27 14   7.1   3.9
 16500 -13.6   7.5  325  18  9   7.1   3.9 | -13.4   7.9  330  27 14   7.1   3.9
 16000 -12.5   9.5  320  18  9   7.2   4.0 | -12.4   9.7  325  27 14   7.4   4.1
 15500 -11.4  11.5  320  18  9   7.2   4.0 | -11.3  11.7  325  27 14   7.4   4.1
 15000  -9.9  14.2  320  18  9   6.7   3.7 |  -9.6  14.7  325  26 13   8.8   4.8
 14500  -8.8  16.2  320  18  9   6.7   3.7 |  -8.4  16.9  320  26 13   9.0   4.9
 14000  -7.8  18.0  320  19 10   7.0   3.8 |  -7.2  19.0  320  25 13   8.5   4.7
 13500  -6.8  19.8  320  19 10   7.0   3.8 |  -5.9  21.4  320  23 12   8.8   4.8
 13000  -5.7  21.7  320  18  9   6.9   3.8 |  -4.8  23.4  320  22 11   6.7   3.7
 12500  -4.7  23.5  320  18  9   6.9   3.8 |  -3.8  25.2  320  20 10   6.9   3.8
 12000  -3.7  25.3  320  17  9   7.5   4.1 |  -2.9  26.8  325  19 10   5.4   3.0
 11500  -2.6  27.3  325  16  8   7.7   4.2 |  -2.0  28.4  330  18  9   5.3   2.9
 11000  -1.5  29.3  325  15  8   6.1   3.3 |  -1.2  29.8  335  18  9   6.0   3.3
 10500  -0.7  30.7  330  14  7   6.7   3.7 |  -0.2  31.6  340  18  9   6.9   3.8
 10250  -0.2  31.6  335  14  7   3.4   1.8 |   0.3  32.5  340  18  9   2.4   1.3
 10000  -0.1  31.8  335  14  7   3.2   1.8 |   0.3  32.5  345  18  9   3.3   1.8
  9750   0.4  32.7  340  13  7   6.4   3.5 |   0.9  33.6  345  17  9   8.4   4.6
  9500   0.8  33.4  345  12  6   5.7   3.1 |   1.5  34.7  345  17  9   7.6   4.2
  9250   1.2  34.2  345  11  6   3.9   2.1 |   2.1  35.8  350  16  8   5.4   3.0
  9000   1.4  34.5  350  11  6   2.5   1.4 |   2.4  36.3  350  15  8   4.0   2.2
  8750   1.7  35.1  355  10  5   3.7   2.1 |   2.8  37.0  350  13  7   6.4   3.5
  8500   2.0  35.6  355   9  5   3.8   2.1 |   3.3  37.9  350  11  6   6.4   3.5
  8250   2.2  36.0  355   8  4   3.9   2.1 |   3.8  38.8  345   9  5   5.8   3.2
  8000   2.4  36.3  355   6  3   4.9   2.7 |   4.2  39.6  345   7  3   5.6   3.1
  7750   2.7  36.9  350   4  2   6.7   3.7 |   4.6  40.3  340   5  2   5.5   3.0
  7500   3.1  37.6  345   4  2   9.2   5.0 |   5.0  41.0  330   3  2   6.3   3.4
  7250   3.8  38.8  345   4  2  10.3   5.6 |   5.4  41.7  325   3  1   7.5   4.1
  7000   4.5  40.1  345   3  2  10.0   5.5 |   5.9  42.6  320   2  1   7.7   4.2
  6750   5.3  41.5  340   3  2  10.2   5.6 |   6.3  43.3  315   2  1   8.2   4.5
  6500   6.0  42.8  340   3  2  10.2   5.6 |   6.9  44.4  315   2  1   9.7   5.3
  6250   6.8  44.2  340   3  2  10.2   5.6 |   7.7  45.9  315   2  1  10.7   5.9
  6000   7.6  45.7  335   3  2  10.0   5.5 |   8.4  47.1  310   2  1   9.8   5.4
  5750   8.4  47.1  330   3  2  13.9   7.6 |   9.2  48.6  310   2  1  10.6   5.8
  5500   9.6  49.3  335   3  2  20.8  11.4 |  10.0  50.0  310   2  1  13.8   7.6
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
                   Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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