Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
UXUS97 KBOU 221340
SRGBOU

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
0640 MST Monday, December 22, 2014

This forecast is for Monday, December 22, 2014:

If the trigger temperature of 42.8 F/6.0 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 62 ft/min (0.3 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 11005 ft MSL (5720 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 44.0 F/7.1 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1045 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 6254 ft MSL (968 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Tuesday 12/23...... Poor

Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1700 MST)......... Remain poor
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... None
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1700 MST)................ Neither
Potential height of wave....................... 25503 ft MSL (20218 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Tuesday 12/23......... Poor

Remarks... North-northwest flow will remain aloft over the colorado front range
           through Tuesday.

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:17:29 / 16:38:56 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 9 hr 21 min 26 sec (561 min 26 sec)
Altitude of sun at 11:58:13 MST... 26.87 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 12/22/2014 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. 5350 ft MSL (65 ft AGL)
Additional freezing level....... 6654 ft MSL (1369 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 11180 ft MSL (5895 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 11175 ft MSL (5890 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +5.9
K index......................... +11.8

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -54.9 -66.8   305   39   20   7.4   4.0  108.8 227.9    58.4      M    M
 45000  -49.4 -56.9   330   48   25   8.0   4.4   93.2 199.8    52.9      M    M
 40000  -48.8 -55.8   320   63   32   4.1   2.2   70.7 159.2    41.8      M    M
 38000  -48.6 -55.5   325   75   39  -0.4  -0.2   62.3 144.2    37.3      M    M
 36000  -47.7 -53.9   325   84   43   3.0   1.6   54.8 130.7    33.1      M    M
 34000  -46.6 -51.9   325   94   48  -0.7  -0.4   47.1 116.7    28.6      M    M
 32000  -45.9 -50.6   325  104   54  -0.5  -0.3   39.9 103.7    24.1      M    M
 30000  -44.8 -48.6   325   92   47  -2.4  -1.3   33.4  92.1    19.9      M    M
 29000  -43.7 -46.7   330   93   48   4.2   2.3   30.9  87.7    18.3      M    M
 28000  -42.4 -44.3   330   96   49   4.1   2.3   28.8  83.8    16.9      M    M
 27000  -41.7 -43.1   325   98   51   1.9   1.1   25.9  78.7    14.9      M    M
 26000  -39.8 -39.6   325  101   52   7.0   3.8   24.6  76.3    14.1      M    M
 25000  -37.7 -35.9   325  103   53   6.6   3.6   23.5  74.3    13.4      M    M
 24000  -36.2 -33.2   325   93   48   3.5   1.9   21.7  71.1    12.1      M    M
 23000  -34.6 -30.3   325   84   43   9.7   5.3   20.2  68.3    10.9      M    M
 22000  -32.4 -26.3   325   78   40   5.6   3.1   19.2  66.5    10.3      M    M
 21000  -31.4 -24.5   320   71   37  -2.1  -1.2   16.9  62.4     8.5      M    M
 20000  -31.1 -24.0   320   65   33   5.0   2.8   13.8  56.8     6.0      M    M
 19500  -30.4 -22.7   320   64   33   6.3   3.4   12.9  55.2     5.2      M    M
 19000  -29.1 -20.4   315   64   33   8.8   4.8   12.6  54.8     5.0      M    M
 18500  -27.8 -18.0   315   64   33   9.2   5.0   12.5  54.5     4.9      M    M
 18000  -26.7 -16.1   310   64   33   5.7   3.1   12.1  53.8     4.6      M    M
 17500  -25.5 -13.9   310   63   32   8.0   4.4   11.8  53.3     4.4      M    M
 17000  -24.7 -12.5   310   62   32   4.8   2.6   11.0  51.9     3.7      M    M
 16500  -23.4 -10.1   305   60   31   7.1   3.9   10.1  50.1     2.9      M    M
 16000  -22.3  -8.1   305   58   30   7.7   4.2    9.6  49.3     2.5      M    M
 15500  -21.1  -6.0   305   56   29   8.0   4.4    9.3  48.7     2.2      M    M
 15000  -19.9  -3.8   310   54   28   8.0   4.4    9.0  48.2     2.0      M    M
 14500  -18.7  -1.7   310   52   27   8.0   4.4    8.7  47.7     1.7      M    M
 14000  -17.5   0.5   310   49   25   8.0   4.4    8.5  47.3     1.5      M    M
 13500  -16.3   2.7   310   43   22   7.6   4.2    8.2  46.8     1.2      M    M
 13000  -15.4   4.3   310   38   19   6.1   3.3    7.7  45.9     0.7      M    M
 12500  -14.2   6.4   310   32   16   9.3   5.1    7.4  45.3     0.4      M    M
 12000  -12.9   8.8   310   27   14   9.0   5.0    7.3  45.1     0.3      M    M
 11500  -11.6  11.1   315   26   13   9.0   4.9    7.1  44.8     0.1      M    M
 11000  -10.2  13.6   315   25   13   9.0   4.9    7.0  44.6    -0.0    456  2.3
 10500   -8.9  16.0   320   23   12   9.0   5.0    6.9  44.4    -0.1    401  2.0
 10250   -8.2  17.2   320   23   12   9.0   4.9    6.8  44.3    -0.2    374  1.9
 10000   -7.6  18.3   325   23   12   9.3   5.1    6.8  44.2    -0.2    346  1.8
  9750   -6.9  19.6   325   22   11   7.6   4.2    6.7  44.1    -0.3    319  1.6
  9500   -6.4  20.5   330   22   11   6.8   3.7    6.5  43.7    -0.5    297  1.5
  9250   -5.9  21.4   335   22   11   7.8   4.3    6.3  43.4    -0.7    273  1.4
  9000   -5.3  22.5   340   22   11   7.5   4.1    6.2  43.1    -0.9    249  1.3
  8750   -4.7  23.5   340   22   11   7.6   4.2    6.0  42.8    -1.0    225  1.1
  8500   -4.2  24.4   345   22   12   7.6   4.2    5.8  42.5    -1.2    201  1.0
  8250   -3.6  25.5   345   23   12   7.6   4.2    5.7  42.2    -1.4    176  0.9
  8000   -3.1  26.4   345   23   12   7.6   4.2    5.5  41.9    -1.6    152  0.8
  7750   -2.5  27.5   345   20   10   7.6   4.2    5.3  41.6    -1.7    128  0.7
  7500   -1.9  28.6   345   17    9   7.6   4.2    5.2  41.3    -1.9    104  0.5
  7250   -1.4  29.5   340   14    7   7.6   4.2    5.0  41.0    -2.1     80  0.4
  7000   -0.8  30.6   340   11    6   7.6   4.1    4.8  40.7    -2.3     55  0.3
  6750   -0.3  31.5   345   10    5   7.8   4.3    4.6  40.4    -2.5     31  0.2
  6500    0.3  32.5   345    9    5   6.9   3.8    4.5  40.1    -2.7      7  0.0
  6250    0.7  33.3   355    8    4   4.2   2.3    4.2  39.5    -3.0      M    M
  6000    1.0  33.8   360    7    4   3.1   1.7    3.7  38.6    -3.4      M    M
  5750    1.4  34.5   005    5    3   9.1   5.0    3.3  38.0    -3.8      M    M
  5500    2.0  35.6   025    3    2   2.0   1.1    3.2  37.8    -3.9      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           12/22/2014 at 0800 MST          |       12/22/2014 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... +0.8  LI... +3.1                | K index... +10.1  LI... +2.0
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... 0.0                    | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -53.2 -63.8  290  21 11   1.6   0.9 | -52.1 -61.8  275  16  8   1.5   0.8
 45000 -50.7 -59.3  290  32 17   1.6   0.9 | -49.9 -57.8  285  22 12   1.5   0.8
 40000 -47.0 -52.6  315  46 24   2.4   1.3 | -46.2 -51.2  320  40 21   2.5   1.4
 38000 -45.9 -50.6  320  54 28  -0.2  -0.1 | -44.9 -48.8  325  49 25   0.8   0.4
 36000 -46.1 -51.0  325  67 34  -0.2  -0.1 | -44.4 -47.9  325  58 30   0.8   0.4
 34000 -46.2 -51.2  330  81 42  -0.2  -0.1 | -43.9 -47.0  330  67 35   0.8   0.4
 32000 -45.6 -50.1  330  86 45   1.4   0.8 | -43.7 -46.7  330  72 37   0.2   0.1
 30000 -44.8 -48.6  325  89 46   1.5   0.8 | -43.6 -46.5  325  74 38   0.2   0.1
 29000 -44.1 -47.4  325  89 46   3.6   2.0 | -43.4 -46.1  325  74 38   1.0   0.5
 28000 -42.7 -44.9  325  87 45   3.6   2.0 | -43.1 -45.6  325  72 37   1.0   0.5
 27000 -41.6 -42.9  325  85 44   3.6   2.0 | -42.8 -45.0  325  69 36   1.0   0.5
 26000 -40.5 -40.9  330  83 43   4.8   2.6 | -42.4 -44.3  325  67 34   3.6   2.0
 25000 -39.0 -38.2  330  80 41   4.7   2.6 | -41.1 -42.0  325  62 32   4.2   2.3
 24000 -37.6 -35.7  330  78 40   4.8   2.6 | -39.8 -39.6  325  56 29   4.3   2.3
 23000 -36.2 -33.2  330  75 39   4.4   2.4 | -38.5 -37.3  325  52 27   5.8   3.2
 22000 -34.9 -30.8  330  70 36   4.4   2.4 | -36.6 -33.9  325  52 27   6.4   3.5
 21000 -33.6 -28.5  330  64 33   4.5   2.4 | -34.7 -30.5  325  53 27   6.4   3.5
 20000 -31.9 -25.4  330  60 31   8.0   4.4 | -32.7 -26.9  325  52 27   7.7   4.2
 19500 -30.7 -23.3  330  59 30   7.9   4.3 | -31.5 -24.7  325  51 26   7.6   4.2
 19000 -29.5 -21.1  330  58 30   7.9   4.3 | -30.4 -22.7  330  49 25   7.6   4.2
 18500 -28.4 -19.1  330  57 29   7.9   4.3 | -29.2 -20.6  330  48 25   7.6   4.2
 18000 -27.2 -17.0  330  56 29   7.7   4.2 | -28.1 -18.6  330  46 24   7.7   4.2
 17500 -26.1 -15.0  330  54 28   7.0   3.9 | -27.0 -16.6  330  45 23   7.9   4.3
 17000 -25.0 -13.0  335  51 26   7.2   4.0 | -25.8 -14.4  325  43 22   7.9   4.4
 16500 -24.1 -11.4  335  49 25   5.6   3.1 | -24.7 -12.5  325  42 22   7.2   3.9
 16000 -23.2  -9.8  335  46 24   5.7   3.1 | -23.6 -10.5  325  43 22   7.2   3.9
 15500 -22.3  -8.1  335  44 23   6.2   3.4 | -22.5  -8.5  330  44 23   8.0   4.4
 15000 -21.4  -6.5  335  40 21   6.4   3.5 | -21.2  -6.2  330  44 23   8.4   4.6
 14500 -19.8  -3.6  340  37 19   8.2   4.5 | -19.4  -2.9  325  43 22   7.8   4.3
 14000 -18.7  -1.7  340  39 20   8.0   4.4 | -18.2  -0.8  330  41 21   7.8   4.3
 13500 -17.5   0.5  335  39 20   7.2   4.0 | -17.0   1.4  330  39 20   8.2   4.5
 13000 -16.5   2.3  335  39 20   7.1   3.9 | -15.8   3.6  330  39 20   8.2   4.5
 12500 -15.3   4.5  335  39 20   8.6   4.7 | -14.6   5.7  330  38 20   7.9   4.3
 12000 -14.0   6.8  335  39 20   8.8   4.8 | -13.4   7.9  330  36 19   7.8   4.3
 11500 -12.8   9.0  335  39 20   7.3   4.0 | -12.3   9.9  330  35 18   8.3   4.5
 11000 -11.8  10.8  330  38 19   7.3   4.0 | -11.0  12.2  330  33 17   8.5   4.6
 10500 -10.7  12.7  330  36 19   7.8   4.3 |  -9.9  14.2  330  31 16   6.9   3.8
 10250 -10.1  13.8  330  36 19   6.8   3.8 |  -9.4  15.1  330  30 15   6.3   3.4
 10000  -9.6  14.7  330  36 18  10.2   5.6 |  -8.9  16.0  325  28 14   8.4   4.6
  9750  -8.7  16.3  330  35 18  11.0   6.1 |  -8.2  17.2  325  26 13   9.4   5.2
  9500  -8.0  17.6  330  34 17   8.4   4.6 |  -7.6  18.3  325  25 13   7.9   4.3
  9250  -7.4  18.7  330  33 17   8.8   4.8 |  -7.0  19.4  325  23 12   8.6   4.7
  9000  -6.7  19.9  330  32 17   9.7   5.3 |  -6.3  20.7  325  22 11   7.3   4.0
  8750  -5.9  21.4  330  31 16   9.9   5.4 |  -5.8  21.6  325  21 11   7.3   4.0
  8500  -5.3  22.5  325  30 15   8.9   4.9 |  -5.2  22.6  325  20 10   8.6   4.7
  8250  -4.6  23.7  325  29 15   9.0   5.0 |  -4.6  23.7  325  18  9   7.7   4.2
  8000  -3.9  25.0  325  28 15   9.5   5.2 |  -4.0  24.8  325  17  9  10.0   5.5
  7750  -3.2  26.2  325  27 14   9.1   5.0 |  -3.2  26.2  325  15  8   9.2   5.0
  7500  -2.6  27.3  325  25 13   8.3   4.6 |  -2.7  27.1  320  14  7   6.4   3.5
  7250  -1.9  28.6  325  24 12   8.6   4.7 |  -2.2  28.0  320  12  6   7.2   4.0
  7000  -1.3  29.7  325  23 12   8.9   4.9 |  -1.6  29.1  320  11  6   8.5   4.7
  6750  -0.6  30.9  325  21 11   8.2   4.5 |  -0.9  30.4  320   9  5   8.2   4.5
  6500  -0.1  31.8  325  20 10   8.0   4.4 |  -0.4  31.3  315   8  4   6.5   3.6
  6250   0.5  32.9  320  18  9   5.3   2.9 |   0.1  32.2  315   6  3   8.3   4.5
  6000   0.7  33.3  320  15  8   2.8   1.5 |   0.8  33.4  300   4  2   9.8   5.4
  5750   0.9  33.6  310  12  6   2.9   1.6 |   1.5  34.7  280   3  2   9.3   5.1
  5500   0.8  33.4  295   8  4  -2.7  -1.5 |   2.2  36.0  250   3  1  10.4   5.7

           12/22/2014 at 1400 MST          |       12/22/2014 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... +14.5  LI... -0.0               | K index... +18.6  LI... -0.2
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -22.7                  | CAPE... +20.9  CIN... -10.5
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -53.0 -63.4  265   9  4   1.7   0.9 | -53.7 -64.7  315  15  7   1.5   0.8
 45000 -50.3 -58.5  325  15  8   1.4   0.8 | -51.4 -60.5  340  22 11   1.5   0.8
 40000 -44.3 -47.7  335  44 23   4.2   2.3 | -44.9 -48.8  320  36 19   4.4   2.4
 38000 -42.2 -44.0  335  55 28   0.8   0.4 | -42.6 -44.7  320  43 22   1.8   1.0
 36000 -41.7 -43.1  335  62 32   0.9   0.5 | -41.5 -42.7  330  53 27   1.8   1.0
 34000 -41.2 -42.2  335  69 36   0.8   0.5 | -40.3 -40.5  335  64 33   1.8   1.0
 32000 -41.5 -42.7  330  72 37  -1.2  -0.7 | -40.7 -41.3  335  70 36  -1.8  -1.0
 30000 -42.3 -44.1  330  74 38  -1.2  -0.7 | -41.8 -43.2  335  73 37  -1.8  -1.0
 29000 -42.6 -44.7  330  74 38  -0.8  -0.4 | -42.4 -44.3  335  72 37  -1.1  -0.6
 28000 -42.8 -45.0  330  73 37  -0.8  -0.4 | -42.8 -45.0  330  69 35  -1.1  -0.6
 27000 -43.1 -45.6  330  71 37  -0.8  -0.4 | -43.1 -45.6  330  65 33  -1.1  -0.6
 26000 -43.2 -45.8  330  70 36   2.4   1.3 | -43.4 -46.1  325  61 32   0.6   0.3
 25000 -41.9 -43.4  330  66 34   4.6   2.5 | -42.7 -44.9  320  57 29   2.4   1.3
 24000 -40.5 -40.9  330  63 32   4.6   2.5 | -42.0 -43.6  315  53 27   2.4   1.3
 23000 -39.1 -38.4  325  60 31   5.2   2.9 | -41.3 -42.3  310  50 25   4.4   2.4
 22000 -37.4 -35.3  325  56 29   5.8   3.2 | -39.3 -38.7  310  45 23   6.6   3.6
 21000 -35.7 -32.3  320  53 27   5.9   3.2 | -37.4 -35.3  305  40 20   6.6   3.6
 20000 -33.7 -28.7  320  49 25   8.0   4.4 | -35.2 -31.4  305  36 18   9.1   5.0
 19500 -32.6 -26.7  320  46 24   7.8   4.3 | -33.9 -29.0  310  35 18   8.9   4.9
 19000 -31.4 -24.5  320  44 23   7.8   4.3 | -32.5 -26.5  315  35 18   8.9   4.9
 18500 -30.3 -22.5  325  42 21   7.8   4.3 | -31.2 -24.2  320  35 18   8.9   4.9
 18000 -29.1 -20.4  325  39 20   7.8   4.3 | -29.9 -21.8  320  35 18   8.9   4.9
 17500 -27.9 -18.2  325  38 20   8.4   4.6 | -28.6 -19.5  325  34 18   8.4   4.6
 17000 -26.6 -15.9  325  37 19   8.4   4.6 | -27.4 -17.3  325  34 17   8.4   4.6
 16500 -25.4 -13.7  325  37 19   8.4   4.6 | -26.1 -15.0  325  33 17   8.2   4.5
 16000 -24.1 -11.4  325  37 19   8.5   4.6 | -24.9 -12.8  330  34 17   8.2   4.5
 15500 -22.9  -9.2  325  37 19   8.6   4.7 | -23.7 -10.7  330  34 18   8.2   4.5
 15000 -20.9  -5.6  325  36 19   8.6   4.7 | -22.5  -8.5  330  34 17   8.2   4.5
 14500 -19.7  -3.5  325  36 18   8.7   4.8 | -20.7  -5.3  335  33 17   8.6   4.7
 14000 -18.4  -1.1  325  34 17   8.7   4.8 | -19.4  -2.9  335  34 17   8.6   4.7
 13500 -17.1   1.2  325  32 17   8.1   4.5 | -18.1  -0.6  335  33 17   8.2   4.5
 13000 -15.9   3.4  325  31 16   8.0   4.4 | -16.9   1.6  340  31 16   8.2   4.5
 12500 -14.7   5.5  325  30 15   8.2   4.5 | -15.7   3.7  340  29 15   7.6   4.2
 12000 -13.5   7.7  325  28 14   8.3   4.5 | -14.6   5.7  340  31 16   7.5   4.1
 11500 -12.3   9.9  320  25 13   8.7   4.8 | -13.5   7.7  345  31 16   7.8   4.3
 11000 -10.9  12.4  320  23 12   8.9   4.9 | -12.4   9.7  345  28 14   7.9   4.3
 10500  -9.7  14.5  320  20 10   8.3   4.5 | -11.3  11.7  350  25 13   6.9   3.8
 10250  -9.1  15.6  315  20 10   7.9   4.3 | -10.8  12.6  350  25 13   6.3   3.5
 10000  -8.5  16.7  315  19 10   9.0   4.9 | -10.3  13.5  350  24 12   7.9   4.3
  9750  -7.7  18.1  315  19 10   9.6   5.3 |  -9.7  14.5  350  22 12   8.6   4.7
  9500  -7.1  19.2  315  18  9   8.6   4.7 |  -9.1  15.6  350  21 11   7.6   4.2
  9250  -6.4  20.5  315  17  9   9.1   5.0 |  -8.5  16.7  355  20 10   7.8   4.3
  9000  -5.8  21.6  310  16  8   7.6   4.2 |  -7.9  17.8  355  19 10   7.5   4.1
  8750  -5.3  22.5  315  15  8   6.6   3.6 |  -7.4  18.7  355  18  9   8.1   4.4
  8500  -4.7  23.5  310  13  7   7.6   4.2 |  -6.8  19.8  355  18  9   9.0   4.9
  8250  -4.2  24.4  310  12  6   6.7   3.7 |  -6.1  21.0  355  17  9   8.3   4.5
  8000  -3.7  25.3  310  10  5   9.4   5.2 |  -5.5  22.1  355  16  8  10.2   5.6
  7750  -2.9  26.8  305   8  4   9.7   5.3 |  -4.6  23.7  355  16  8  10.6   5.8
  7500  -2.3  27.9  300   6  3   7.3   4.0 |  -3.9  25.0  355  16  8   9.0   4.9
  7250  -1.7  28.9  290   5  3   7.8   4.3 |  -3.2  26.2  355  16  8   9.6   5.2
  7000  -1.1  30.0  280   4  2   9.1   5.0 |  -2.5  27.5  360  15  8  11.1   6.1
  6750  -0.4  31.3  280   3  2  10.3   5.6 |  -1.6  29.1  360  15  8  10.9   6.0
  6500   0.4  32.7  275   3  2   9.8   5.4 |  -0.9  30.4  360  15  8   9.2   5.1
  6250   1.1  34.0  275   3  1   9.9   5.4 |  -0.1  31.8  360  14  7  10.4   5.7
  6000   1.8  35.2  270   3  1   9.8   5.4 |   0.7  33.3  360  13  7  11.2   6.1
  5750   2.6  36.7  265   3  1  10.2   5.6 |   1.5  34.7  360  12  6  10.6   5.8
  5500   3.4  38.1  265   2  1  12.8   7.0 |   2.2  36.0  360  11  6   8.4   4.6
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
                   Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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