Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
UXUS97 KBOU 161231
SRGBOU

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder, Colorado
0631 MDT Saturday, May 16, 2015

This forecast is for Saturday, May 16, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 55.4 F/13.0 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 592 ft/min (3.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 11550 ft MSL (6265 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 59.0 F/15.5 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1030 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Overcast thin high
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 8317 ft MSL (3032 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 05/17....... Good

Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1800 MDT)......... Little change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... 16119 ft MSL (10834 ft AGL)
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1800 MDT)................ Weak PVA
Potential height of wave....................... 16611 ft MSL (11326 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Sunday 05/17.......... Good

Remarks... Upper level disturbance moving over colorado today...producing rain
           showers through this afternoon.

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:44:16 / 20:07:14 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 22 min 58 sec (862 min 58 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:55:57 MDT... 69.37 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 05/16/2015 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 9695 ft MSL (4410 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 10323 ft MSL (5038 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 10973 ft MSL (5688 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -1.5
K index......................... +26.6

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -53.6 -64.5   205   27   14   1.0   0.5  109.9 229.9    54.4      M    M
 45000  -49.7 -57.5   225   41   21  -2.7  -1.5   90.5 194.9    46.4      M    M
 40000  -53.3 -63.9   200   61   32   2.0   1.1   61.9 143.4    30.8      M    M
 38000  -54.9 -66.8   190   76   39  -4.3  -2.3   50.7 123.3    24.1      M    M
 36000  -53.3 -63.9   180   77   40   8.5   4.7   44.4 111.9    20.4      M    M
 34000  -48.4 -55.1   175   80   41   7.2   4.0   43.1 109.5    20.0      M    M
 32000  -45.8 -50.4   180   86   44   3.2   1.7   38.5 101.3    17.1      M    M
 30000  -42.2 -44.0   185   91   47   4.0   2.2   34.6  94.2    14.7      M    M
 29000  -41.2 -42.2   185   75   39  -3.7  -2.0   32.1  89.7    13.0      M    M
 28000  -41.7 -43.1   190   59   30   6.3   3.5   27.5  81.5     9.6      M    M
 27000  -39.6 -39.3   190   44   23   6.9   3.8   26.4  79.6     8.9      M    M
 26000  -37.3 -35.1   200   29   15   8.4   4.6   25.7  78.3     8.4      M    M
 25000  -34.8 -30.6   220   15    8   8.4   4.6   25.3  77.5     8.2      M    M
 24000  -32.1 -25.8   225   15    8  10.0   5.5   24.9  76.7     8.0      M    M
 23000  -29.3 -20.7   235   15    8   9.0   5.0   24.7  76.5     8.0      M    M
 22000  -26.8 -16.2   225   11    6   7.2   4.0   24.3  75.7     7.7      M    M
 21000  -24.6 -12.3   235   10    5   7.5   4.1   23.4  74.1     7.0      M    M
 20000  -22.2  -8.0   215    7    4   8.7   4.8   22.7  72.9     6.5      M    M
 19500  -20.9  -5.6   225    7    3   8.7   4.7   22.5  72.6     6.4      M    M
 19000  -19.6  -3.3   240    6    3   8.2   4.5   22.3  72.2     6.2      M    M
 18500  -18.4  -1.1   255    7    3   5.2   2.9   22.1  71.7     6.0      M    M
 18000  -18.2  -0.8   260    7    4   5.0   2.8   20.7  69.3     4.8      M    M
 17500  -16.9   1.6   265    8    4   7.9   4.3   20.4  68.7     4.6      M    M
 17000  -15.7   3.7   270    9    5   8.7   4.8   20.1  68.3     4.4      M    M
 16500  -14.4   6.1   270   10    5   9.0   4.9   19.9  67.9     4.3      M    M
 16000  -13.5   7.7   275   11    6   1.6   0.9   19.4  66.9     3.7      M    M
 15500  -12.8   9.0   265    8    4   7.1   3.9   17.9  64.3     2.3      M    M
 15000  -11.8  10.8   250    6    3   6.8   3.8   17.4  63.4     1.8      M    M
 14500  -10.8  12.6   225    4    2   8.0   4.4   17.0  62.5     1.4      M    M
 14000   -9.5  14.9   190    4    2   8.7   4.8   16.8  62.3     1.2      M    M
 13500   -8.2  17.2   200    3    1   8.7   4.8   16.6  61.9     1.0      M    M
 13000   -6.9  19.6   220    2    1   8.7   4.8   16.5  61.6     0.9      M    M
 12500   -5.6  21.9   255    2    1   8.4   4.6   16.3  61.3     0.7      M    M
 12000   -4.3  24.3   285    2    1   7.9   4.3   16.1  60.9     0.6      M    M
 11500   -3.7  25.3   280    1    1   1.1   0.6   15.2  59.4    -0.3    487  2.5
 11000   -3.1  26.4   275    1    0   9.1   5.0   14.5  58.1    -1.2    455  2.3
 10500   -1.9  28.6   000    0    0   8.5   4.7   14.3  57.7    -1.4    404  2.1
 10250   -1.3  29.7   000    0    0   8.4   4.6   14.2  57.5    -1.6    378  1.9
 10000   -0.7  30.7   125    1    0   8.5   4.7   14.1  57.4    -1.7    353  1.8
  9750   -0.1  31.8   125    1    0   8.7   4.8   14.0  57.2    -1.8    326  1.7
  9500    0.6  33.1   000    0    0   9.1   5.0   13.9  57.1    -1.8    299  1.5
  9250    1.3  34.3   000    0    0   8.2   4.5   13.9  57.0    -1.9    272  1.4
  9000    1.9  35.4   275    1    1   6.6   3.6   13.7  56.6    -2.0    246  1.3
  8750    2.3  36.1   270    1    1   4.5   2.5   13.4  56.0    -2.3    226  1.1
  8500    2.6  36.7   260    1    1   5.2   2.8   12.9  55.3    -2.8    211  1.1
  8250    3.0  37.4   255    1    1   7.1   3.9   12.7  54.8    -3.1    189  1.0
  8000    3.5  38.3   250    1    1   7.0   3.8   12.5  54.5    -3.3    167  0.8
  7750    4.1  39.4   290    1    0   7.0   3.8   12.3  54.1    -3.5    144  0.7
  7500    4.6  40.3   345    1    0   7.0   3.8   12.0  53.7    -3.8    121  0.6
  7250    5.1  41.2   005    1    1   6.9   3.8   11.8  53.3    -4.0     98  0.5
  7000    5.6  42.1   015    2    1   7.3   4.0   11.6  52.9    -4.2     75  0.4
  6750    6.1  43.0   035    2    1   6.0   3.3   11.4  52.6    -4.4     52  0.3
  6500    6.5  43.7   050    3    1   4.4   2.4   11.0  51.9    -4.8     35  0.2
  6250    6.8  44.2   060    3    2   4.7   2.6   10.6  51.2    -5.3     18  0.1
  6000    7.1  44.8   070    4    2   3.9   2.2   10.3  50.5    -5.7      2  0.0
  5750    7.4  45.3   070    3    1   6.7   3.7    9.9  49.8    -6.2      M    M
  5500    8.1  46.6   070    1    1  10.5   5.8    9.8  49.7    -6.2      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           05/16/2015 at 0900 MDT          |       05/16/2015 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... +26.0  LI... +272.4             | K index... +24.1  LI... +271.9
CAPE... +133.0  CIN... -16.8               | CAPE... +174.9  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -53.1 -63.6  205  32 16   2.7   1.5 | -52.9 -63.2  210  33 17   2.8   1.5
 45000 -49.1 -56.4  215  39 20   0.9   0.5 | -48.7 -55.7  210  38 20   1.4   0.8
 40000 -49.8 -57.6  200  51 26  -0.4  -0.2 | -48.9 -56.0  200  46 24  -0.1  -0.0
 38000 -49.8 -57.6  200  55 29   0.7   0.4 | -48.7 -55.7  200  49 25   0.8   0.4
 36000 -49.3 -56.7  200  61 31   0.7   0.4 | -48.2 -54.8  190  53 27   0.8   0.4
 34000 -48.8 -55.8  195  65 34   3.9   2.2 | -47.7 -53.9  185  58 30   1.3   0.7
 32000 -46.2 -51.2  195  66 34   4.3   2.3 | -46.7 -52.1  190  53 27   1.7   0.9
 30000 -43.6 -46.5  200  65 34   4.5   2.5 | -45.7 -50.3  195  49 25   4.4   2.4
 29000 -42.3 -44.1  200  53 27   4.5   2.5 | -43.6 -46.5  190  39 20   7.0   3.8
 28000 -40.9 -41.6  205  41 21   4.5   2.5 | -41.0 -41.8  185  26 13   7.0   3.8
 27000 -39.6 -39.3  205  29 15   4.3   2.3 | -39.0 -38.2  175  16  8   6.9   3.8
 26000 -37.6 -35.7  210  22 12   7.8   4.3 | -36.5 -33.7  175  13  7   8.5   4.6
 25000 -35.2 -31.4  205  18  9   7.8   4.3 | -34.0 -29.2  175  13  7   8.5   4.6
 24000 -32.9 -27.2  195  13  7   7.8   4.3 | -31.5 -24.7  175  13  6   8.5   4.7
 23000 -30.3 -22.5  195  11  6   9.0   4.9 | -29.1 -20.4  180  12  6   7.9   4.3
 22000 -27.6 -17.7  195  11  6   9.0   4.9 | -26.8 -16.2  185  12  6   7.9   4.4
 21000 -25.0 -13.0  195  11  6   9.1   5.0 | -24.4 -11.9  190  12  6   7.9   4.3
 20000 -22.6  -8.7  200  11  6   7.8   4.3 | -22.2  -8.0  195  12  6   7.6   4.1
 19500 -21.4  -6.5  200  11  6   7.8   4.3 | -21.0  -5.8  195  12  6   7.6   4.2
 19000 -20.2  -4.4  200  11  6   7.8   4.3 | -19.9  -3.8  200  12  6   7.6   4.2
 18500 -18.5  -1.3  205  11  6   7.7   4.2 | -18.8  -1.8  200  12  6   7.6   4.2
 18000 -17.4   0.7  205  11  6   7.5   4.1 | -17.7   0.1  200  13  6   7.2   3.9
 17500 -16.3   2.7  205  11  6   7.5   4.1 | -16.7   1.9  205  13  7   7.2   4.0
 17000 -15.2   4.6  205  11  6   7.1   3.9 | -15.6   3.9  205  13  7   6.9   3.8
 16500 -14.2   6.4  205  11  6   7.1   3.9 | -14.6   5.7  205  13  7   6.6   3.6
 16000 -13.1   8.4  205  11  6   6.8   3.7 | -13.7   7.3  205  13  6   6.6   3.6
 15500 -12.2  10.0  200  11  5   6.7   3.7 | -12.7   9.1  205  12  6   6.9   3.8
 15000 -11.2  11.8  200  10  5   6.8   3.7 | -11.2  11.8  210  12  6   6.9   3.8
 14500 -10.2  13.6  200   9  5   7.0   3.8 | -10.2  13.6  205  11  6   7.0   3.8
 14000  -9.2  15.4  195   8  4   7.0   3.9 |  -9.1  15.6  205  10  5   7.0   3.8
 13500  -8.1  17.4  195   8  4   7.7   4.2 |  -8.1  17.4  205   9  5   7.0   3.8
 13000  -7.0  19.4  195   7  4   7.7   4.2 |  -7.1  19.2  200   8  4   7.0   3.9
 12500  -5.9  21.4  185   6  3   7.5   4.1 |  -6.1  21.0  200   7  4   6.5   3.5
 12000  -4.8  23.4  170   5  3   7.7   4.2 |  -5.1  22.8  195   6  3   6.5   3.5
 11500  -3.8  25.2  155   5  3   6.1   3.3 |  -4.1  24.6  185   5  3   7.1   3.9
 11000  -2.9  26.8  145   5  3   6.1   3.4 |  -3.1  26.4  175   5  2   7.1   3.9
 10500  -1.9  28.6  140   5  3   7.6   4.1 |  -2.1  28.2  155   4  2   6.7   3.7
 10250  -1.4  29.5  140   5  3   7.6   4.2 |  -1.7  28.9  140   4  2   7.3   4.0
 10000  -0.8  30.6  140   5  3   8.6   4.7 |  -1.1  30.0  130   4  2   8.6   4.7
  9750  -0.1  31.8  140   6  3   9.4   5.2 |  -0.5  31.1  120   4  2  10.1   5.5
  9500   0.6  33.1  140   6  3   9.3   5.1 |   0.3  32.5  120   4  2  10.6   5.8
  9250   1.3  34.3  140   6  3   9.9   5.4 |   1.1  34.0  115   4  2  10.7   5.9
  9000   2.0  35.6  140   6  3   7.7   4.2 |   1.8  35.2  115   4  2   9.7   5.3
  8750   2.5  36.5  140   6  3   6.8   3.7 |   2.5  36.5  115   4  2   9.3   5.1
  8500   3.1  37.6  145   6  3   8.4   4.6 |   3.2  37.8  115   4  2  10.2   5.6
  8250   3.7  38.7  150   5  3   7.6   4.2 |   4.0  39.2  115   4  2   9.6   5.3
  8000   4.3  39.7  160   5  3   9.1   5.0 |   4.7  40.5  110   4  2  11.1   6.1
  7750   5.0  41.0  175   5  3   8.1   4.5 |   5.6  42.1  115   4  2  10.6   5.8
  7500   5.4  41.7  180   6  3   6.1   3.3 |   6.3  43.3  110   4  2   8.8   4.8
  7250   5.9  42.6  190   6  3   6.6   3.6 |   6.9  44.4  110   4  2   9.2   5.1
  7000   6.4  43.5  195   6  3   7.7   4.2 |   7.6  45.7  110   4  2  10.1   5.6
  6750   7.0  44.6  200   6  3   9.1   5.0 |   8.4  47.1  115   4  2  10.5   5.8
  6500   7.7  45.9  200   6  3   8.9   4.9 |   9.2  48.6  110   4  2   9.8   5.4
  6250   8.3  46.9  205   6  3   9.5   5.2 |   9.9  49.8  110   4  2  10.1   5.5
  6000   9.1  48.4  205   6  3  10.4   5.7 |  10.7  51.3  110   4  2  10.8   5.9
  5750   9.9  49.8  205   5  3  10.9   6.0 |  11.5  52.7  110   3  2   9.7   5.3
  5500  10.8  51.4  205   5  2  15.0   8.2 |  12.3  54.1  110   3  2  14.9   8.2

           05/16/2015 at 1500 MDT          |       05/16/2015 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +24.9  LI... +272.1             | K index... +21.9  LI... +273.0
CAPE... +152.5  CIN... -1.2                | CAPE... +24.7  CIN... -1.7
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -53.1 -63.6  215  37 19   2.8   1.5 | -52.4 -62.3  220  33 17   1.9   1.0
 45000 -48.9 -56.0  215  34 18   1.7   0.9 | -49.5 -57.1  215  30 15   0.9   0.5
 40000 -47.9 -54.2  205  34 18   0.7   0.4 | -48.0 -54.4  205  26 14   1.0   0.5
 38000 -47.9 -54.2  200  34 17  -0.8  -0.4 | -48.0 -54.4  205  24 12  -1.1  -0.6
 36000 -48.3 -54.9  200  32 16  -0.8  -0.4 | -48.6 -55.5  200  20 10  -1.1  -0.6
 34000 -48.8 -55.8  200  30 16   0.3   0.2 | -49.3 -56.7  200  16  8   0.5   0.3
 32000 -48.1 -54.6  205  21 11   1.2   0.7 | -48.2 -54.8  220   8  4   1.7   0.9
 30000 -46.6 -51.9  220  12  6   9.5   5.2 | -46.3 -51.3  305   5  3  10.0   5.5
 29000 -44.0 -47.2  215  11  6   8.7   4.8 | -43.6 -46.5  295   5  2   9.3   5.1
 28000 -41.4 -42.5  210  10  5   8.7   4.8 | -40.8 -41.4  280   4  2   9.3   5.1
 27000 -38.8 -37.8  205   9  5   8.7   4.8 | -38.0 -36.4  260   4  2   9.3   5.1
 26000 -36.2 -33.2  210   9  5   8.7   4.8 | -35.3 -31.5  255   4  2   8.8   4.8
 25000 -33.6 -28.5  220  10  5   8.7   4.8 | -32.7 -26.9  250   3  2   8.8   4.8
 24000 -31.0 -23.8  230  10  5   8.7   4.8 | -30.1 -22.2  240   3  2   8.9   4.9
 23000 -28.4 -19.1  235  11  6   8.4   4.6 | -27.7 -17.9  235   3  2   7.7   4.2
 22000 -25.9 -14.6  240  12  6   8.4   4.6 | -25.4 -13.7  230   3  2   7.7   4.2
 21000 -23.4 -10.1  240  13  7   8.3   4.5 | -23.2  -9.8  225   3  2   7.7   4.2
 20000 -21.3  -6.3  240  14  7   7.2   4.0 | -21.0  -5.8  225   4  2   7.4   4.0
 19500 -20.2  -4.4  235  14  7   7.2   4.0 | -19.9  -3.8  225   4  2   7.4   4.0
 19000 -19.1  -2.4  235  15  7   7.2   4.0 | -18.8  -1.8  225   4  2   7.4   4.1
 18500 -18.1  -0.6  235  15  8   7.3   4.0 | -17.7   0.1  225   5  2   7.4   4.1
 18000 -17.0   1.4  235  15  8   7.2   4.0 | -16.6   2.1  230   5  3   7.4   4.1
 17500 -16.0   3.2  230  15  8   7.2   4.0 | -15.6   3.9  235   6  3   7.4   4.1
 17000 -14.9   5.2  230  15  8   6.7   3.7 | -14.5   5.9  240   6  3   7.2   3.9
 16500 -14.0   6.8  225  15  8   6.4   3.5 | -13.4   7.9  245   6  3   7.0   3.8
 16000 -13.0   8.6  225  15  7   6.5   3.6 | -11.9  10.6  255   7  3   6.5   3.6
 15500 -11.5  11.3  225  14  7   7.1   3.9 | -11.0  12.2  265   7  4   6.4   3.5
 15000 -10.5  13.1  220  14  7   6.9   3.8 | -10.1  13.8  275   7  4   6.5   3.6
 14500  -9.5  14.9  220  13  7   6.6   3.6 |  -9.1  15.6  285   8  4   6.7   3.7
 14000  -8.5  16.7  220  13  7   6.6   3.6 |  -8.1  17.4  290   8  4   6.7   3.7
 13500  -7.5  18.5  220  12  6   6.7   3.7 |  -7.1  19.2  295   8  4   6.7   3.7
 13000  -6.6  20.1  215  11  6   6.7   3.7 |  -6.1  21.0  300   9  4   6.7   3.7
 12500  -5.6  21.9  215  11  5   6.7   3.7 |  -5.2  22.6  305   9  5   6.4   3.5
 12000  -4.6  23.7  215  10  5   6.8   3.7 |  -4.2  24.4  305   9  5   6.5   3.5
 11500  -3.6  25.5  210   8  4   6.4   3.5 |  -3.3  26.1  305  10  5   6.1   3.3
 11000  -2.7  27.1  200   7  4   6.4   3.5 |  -2.4  27.7  300  11  6   6.2   3.4
 10500  -1.7  28.9  185   5  2   7.1   3.9 |  -1.6  29.1  300  12  6   5.6   3.1
 10250  -1.3  29.7  175   3  2   7.5   4.1 |  -1.2  29.8  295  13  7   6.0   3.3
 10000  -0.7  30.7  155   2  1   8.8   4.8 |  -0.7  30.7  295  14  7   7.2   3.9
  9750  -0.0  32.0  120   1  1  10.3   5.6 |  -0.2  31.6  295  14  7   8.3   4.5
  9500   0.7  33.3  095   1  1  10.7   5.9 |   0.4  32.7  290  15  8   8.4   4.6
  9250   1.5  34.7  075   1  1  11.2   6.2 |   1.0  33.8  290  16  8   8.7   4.8
  9000   2.3  36.1  055   1  1   8.6   4.7 |   1.6  34.9  290  17  9   7.4   4.0
  8750   2.9  37.2  050   1  1   8.4   4.6 |   2.1  35.8  285  17  9   7.7   4.2
  8500   3.6  38.5  045   1  1  10.9   6.0 |   2.8  37.0  285  17  9   9.6   5.3
  8250   4.4  39.9  045   1  1  10.0   5.5 |   3.5  38.3  285  17  9   8.5   4.6
  8000   5.2  41.4  040   2  1  11.3   6.2 |   4.1  39.4  285  17  9  11.2   6.2
  7750   6.0  42.8  045   2  1  10.5   5.8 |   5.0  41.0  285  17  9  11.1   6.1
  7500   6.7  44.1  040   2  1   8.8   4.8 |   5.7  42.3  285  16  8   8.3   4.5
  7250   7.4  45.3  035   2  1   9.3   5.1 |   6.4  43.5  280  16  8   9.0   5.0
  7000   8.1  46.6  035   2  1  10.0   5.5 |   7.0  44.6  280  16  8   9.5   5.2
  6750   8.9  48.0  030   2  1  10.2   5.6 |   7.8  46.0  280  16  8  10.1   5.5
  6500   9.6  49.3  030   2  1   9.6   5.3 |   8.5  47.3  280  15  8  10.1   5.5
  6250  10.3  50.5  030   2  1   9.9   5.5 |   9.3  48.7  280  15  8  10.1   5.5
  6000  11.1  52.0  030   2  1  10.3   5.7 |  10.0  50.0  280  14  7   9.9   5.4
  5750  11.8  53.2  030   2  1  10.7   5.8 |  10.7  51.3  280  14  7  10.7   5.9
  5500  12.8  55.0  025   2  1  16.4   9.0 |  11.6  52.9  275  12  6  14.5   7.9
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the old Stapleton
Airport site in Denver, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 46 min 5.016 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 52 min 9.984 sec
                   Elevation: 5285 feet (1611 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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