969
FXUS64 KFWD 090458
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1158 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Friday Afternoon/

The frontal boundary is currently draped across North and Central
Texas as of 11:40 PM, around a Comanche-Lancaster-Mount Pleasant
Line. This can be seen by a northerly wind shift and sharp
dewpoint/temperature gradient in surface observations. Showers and
storms are still attempting to get going along this boundary in
East Texas, but will eventually be snuffed out in the early
overnight hours.

Surface cyclogenesis will occur overnight near the front/dryline
intersection, bringing the western edge of the front a bit northward
and the front oriented more W-E in nature. The front will then stall
near the US-380 corridor late tonight as the upper level
shortwave ejects off to the northeast. the majority of North and
Central Texas will still be in the warm sector of the system,
with 70 degree dewpoints persisting through tomorrow morning. A
deck of low-level stratus will once again impede through the
region, and with the persistent increased moisture, will allow for
the potential for patchy, sometimes dense, fog through the
morning hours.

The upper low will eventually detach from the main longwave
trough, becoming a closed low over the Four Corners on Thursday.
Shortwave disturbances will round the base of the low and move
over North and Central Texas, bringing increased large-scale
forcing for ascent. Storm chances will be on the increase over
the afternoon hours, especially near the focusing areas of the
cold front and dryline. Showers and storms will be possible across
most of the area, with the best chances generally near and south
of US-380 through the afternoon and early evening hours. The
environment will be highly unstable with 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE,
>7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, and ample deep layer shear. Storms
in this environment will quickly become severe with very large
hail and damaging winds the main threat. While the overall tornado
threat is low, we cannot rule out an isolated tornado due to the
abundant instability, especially within the warm sector where
increased low-level SRH can be found.

The stalled boundary will eventually get a push southward as the
base of the departing main trough moves into the Tennessee Valley
late Thursday night. Any lingering showers and storms will come to
an end as cooler and drier air moves into North and Central Texas.
Expect a cooler day on Friday with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s,
which are up to around 5 degrees below normal for this time of
year.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 210 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024/
/Friday and Beyond/

As surface high pressure settles over North and Central Texas
behind the Thursday cold front, drier and cooler air will usher in
a pleasant start to the weekend. Expect afternoon highs in the 70s
to low 80s and overnight lows in the mid-50s to mid-60s both
Friday and Saturday. As the surface ridge shifts east toward the
SE CONUS Gulf Coast, east-northeasterly winds will veer more
southeasterly by the latter half of the weekend beginning a period
of gradual moisture return. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms may return to our western Central Texas and Big
Country counties as soon as late Saturday evening as isentropic
ascent increases ahead of an approaching mid-/upper-level low.

More widespread rain chances are expected Sunday as the
aforementioned upper low shifts toward the Southern Plains
region. With little to no surface-based instability present,
thunderstorms will likely remain elevated through Sunday and offer
primarily a small hail and heavy rain threat. The severe weather
threat may ramp up some as we shift into Monday. Medium-range
guidance suggests the upper trough will shift over Oklahoma/Kansas
helping send a northwest-southeast moving cold front through our
forecast area Monday. Upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints and
steepening mid-level lapse rates will increase instability over
the warm sector. Deep layer shear does look sufficient for
organized storm structures capable of producing hail and damaging
wind gusts, so make sure to keep up with the forecast through the
weekend as we further refine timing and location details. More so,
the threat for localized flash flooding may increase in the
Sunday-Monday timeframe with latest guidance highlighting a 30-40%
chance that already water-logged locations across portions of
Central Texas and the Brazos Valley could see an additional 2+" of
rainfall during this timeframe.

Beyond Monday, uncertainty in the evolution of the synoptic
pattern increases. However, it does appear that the subtropical
jet will remain active over the Southern Plains well into the
extended period. And with sufficient moisture remaining in place
(dependent on the Monday system), that is enough to carry at least
low end rain chances through the middle of next week.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

Northerly winds will persist at D10 and southerly at ACT through
the night. A surge of MVFR/IFR stratus is expected to blanket the
TAF sites just after midnight, with best chances for IFR staying
in Central Texas. Patchy fog/mist is also expected across Central
Texas, with low chances of making it up into the Metroplex.

By mid-afternoon, skies will lift to VFR. Scattered showers and
storms will be possible near the TAF sites with best impacts at
D10 between 22-24Z and 01-03Z for ACT. Storms should move
south/east of the area later tonight as a cold front moves
through the region. ACT will finally shift to northerly flow after
00Z. Northerly winds and VFR will persist through the end of the
period.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  82  63  80  62 /  20  60  20   0   5
Waco                73  85  63  79  61 /  10  60  50   5   5
Paris               65  83  59  79  56 /  70  60  30   0   0
Denton              66  81  59  79  58 /   5  60  20   0   5
McKinney            67  82  61  79  58 /  60  60  20   0   5
Dallas              70  84  64  81  61 /  40  60  20   0   5
Terrell             68  84  63  79  58 /  60  60  30   0   5
Corsicana           73  86  64  81  61 /  20  50  50   0   5
Temple              75  86  64  79  61 /  10  50  50   5   5
Mineral Wells       66  82  60  79  58 /   0  60  20   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$