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000
FXUS63 KGLD 160957
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
357 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northwesterly winds are expected over much of the area
  today, where sustained winds at 30-45 mph and gusts up to 70
  mph are anticipated. Wind of this magnitude will create
  dangerous travel conditions, especially for high profile
  vehicles. Reductions in visibility associated with blowing
  dust (where present) will locally exacerbate dangerous travel
  conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 253 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Across the region this morning, skies are a partly to mostly cloudy
mix with some isolated showers over portions of the area.
Temperatures as of 200 AM MDT are ranging in the 50s, with winds
mainly west-northwest with gusts up to 20 mph at times.

Going into today, the main wx concerns are continuing to focus on
the high wind threat that will evolve through the day as a strong
northwesterly wind sets up over the region on the back side of the
current surface low over the area. Current surface/upper air
analysis is showing an elongated low stretching north to south over
the central Plains. A cold front continues to push eastward away
from the cwa, with a weak boundary over the west, that is currently
stalling the arrival of the stronger NW flow.

Short term guidance/CAMs continues to show some wrap-around moisture
to work into the region during the day from the west, but
eventually expands eastward as the low complex moves away from
the area late today. Based on the low track, the northern
portions of the cwa are favored for light rain chances, and even
an isolated storm with some limited instability.

The more pressing concerns will be the arrival of the strong NW flow
beginning in the morning hours from 12z onward, spreading east
through 18z. Surface obs do show gusts already in the 30-40 mph
range around the Nebraska panhandle. Decent mixing up to 800mb and a
tight surface gradient due to a strong ridge building in behind this
system will bring gusts into the 60-70 mph, especially in NE
Colorado and adjacent KS counties. Current guidance does favor some
of these winds to expand further east than the current High Wind
Warning covers, so have expanded the Warning for the entire area,
with the same timeframe.

With the arrival of these strong winds, the threat for blowing dust
remains. The caveat to this will be the expanse/coverage of expected
showers through the day. With WPC QPF favoring the northern tier
zones, will continue the previous forecast trend of best blowing
dust chances along/south of the Interstate. If the wrap-around
moisture doesn`t materialize fully, blowing dust issues will be
pushed further northward, at least to the Highway 36 area and south.

For tonight into Wednesday, surface ridge expected east of the cwa,
with a low developing over eastern Colorado. This will result in a
southerly gradient, and thus warmer temps. Concerns for the SW
region of the cwa to begin drying out and approaching adverse fire
wx conditions. As of now, booth wind and RH criteria will not be
met, but will have to be monitored.

For temps, looking for daytime highs today to range from the lower
60s in the northwest to the lower and mid 70s in the east and far
south. Going into Wednesday, warmer with lower to mid 70s north to
around 80F south of the Interstate, especially those areas
along/south of Highway 40. Overnight lows tonight will range widely
with lower to mid 30s along/west of Highway 25. East of there, upper
30s to lower 40s are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 148 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Generally upper-level zonal flow will dominate the Tri-State area
through Saturday. Diurnal shortwaves give locations along and north
of I-70 ~30%+ PoPs through Saturday. The persistent cloud cover and
light winds will keep temperatures a bit cooler than we`ve seen over
the past few days. Through Friday, maximum temperatures will remain
in the 50s with Saturday remaining in the 40s. Overnight
temperatures will cool into the upper 20s to mid 30s. These
temperatures combined with the PoPs are expected to lead to
rain/snow showers, mainly Friday. Flurries could be seen along and
northwest of a line from Norton, KS to Wallace, KS. Accumulation of
snow is not expected due to the light QPF and how warm soil
temperatures have recently gotten. Patchy black ice is possible
(<10% chance) Saturday morning, mainly in east/northeastern Colorado.

Sunday, a ridge will begin building in and temperatures will quickly
start warming again. 60s on Sunday then 70s on Monday and Tuesday
are expected. After Saturday night, temperatures are expected to
remain above freezing. There are some suggestions of more light
showers Monday evening and Tuesday, but confidence is not very
high.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

For KGLD, strong northwesterly winds will be main factor during
this forecast period. 6sm in blowing dust is possible right now
from 17z Tue-00z Wed. VFR otherwise. Winds, northwest through
the forecast period, with at least 15-30 kts expected. Gusts to
40-55kts are possible during the afternoon and early evening.
LLWS 02z-06z Wednesday 320@40kts. From 06z Wednesday onward,
winds diminish to around 10kts.

For KMCK, strong west to a northwest flow is expected for the
terminal as the main weather factor. 15-25kts through 17z then
35-50kts for the remainder of the forecast. 6sm in blowing dust
is possible right now from 15z-18z. From 18z-23z today MVFR
ceilings with VCTS is possible.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...High Wind Warning from 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning to 7
    PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-
     027>029-041-042.
CO...High Wind Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ090>092.
NE...High Wind Warning from 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning to 7
    PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JN