Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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299 FXUS64 KOHX 091139 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 639 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 The severe weather threat has ended for Middle Tennessee. There are some lingering showers affecting the Cumberland Plateau and locations south of I-40. Most of the mid state remains covered by Flash Flood Warnings due to the excessive rainfall over the past 24 hrs. And as river levels rise, there will be some river flood products issued as stages increase above action (or flood). Otherwise, there will be considerable cloud cover this morning and decreasing clouds in the afternoon. Temperatures will be quite warm today, with most spots reaching the low to mid 80s. We`ll start to feel the cooler air tonight and especially tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Middle Tennessee is in for a stormy night. All modes of severe weather remain on the table owing to an environment that is still moist, unstable, and highly-sheared. Most of the OHX CWA is under a Flash Flood Warning, in additional to a Tornado Watch for the entire mid state, and severe storms currently extend as far west as eastern Arkansas. The MRMS radar-estimated rainfall totals for the past 24 hours show a wide swath of 7-10" amounts extending from eastern Montgomery County through much of Robertson and Sumner Counties. This is in addition to the tornado and wind damage and large hail reports that have occurred across the mid state during the past several hours. A significant portion of Middle Tennessee remains under a moderate risk of severe storms for the remainder of the night. The severe threat will continue until a cold front, which is currently situated west of the Mississippi River, finally pushes this volatile air mass east of us. Expect some rain and storm chances to linger into Thursday morning, especially in areas to the east and south of Nashville, but the severe threat should end by 12Z. Look for cooler temperatures to accompany the drier air Thursday night and Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Cooler temperatures will last through the weekend, and the only rain chances this weekend look to affect mainly the Upper Plateau Saturday afternoon, and these will be relatively inconsequential. Temperatures will gradually warm back up next week, and more active weather systems look to affect the mid state beginning Monday and without much of a break, just like this week, although Middle Tennessee isn`t yet targeted for any severe weather risk in the SPC`s extended outlook. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks for Middle Tennessee favor near normal temperatures and above normal rainfall, meaning that we`re in for a very wet month of May. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Finally, the prolonged active weather event that has spanned the past 24 hours is winding down. With the exception of some lingering light showers at KCSV, the departing convection is not impacting any of our terminals. We do expect a brief period of MVFR ceilings later this morning as the surface boundary comes through, but we`ll return to VFR afterwards. Winds will be somewhat gusty today as they shift around to the NW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 85 58 73 52 / 30 0 10 0 Clarksville 83 55 71 51 / 10 0 10 0 Crossville 79 54 68 45 / 70 10 20 0 Columbia 85 58 73 49 / 40 10 10 0 Cookeville 80 55 68 48 / 60 0 20 0 Jamestown 79 54 67 45 / 60 10 30 0 Lawrenceburg 85 58 73 49 / 40 10 10 0 Murfreesboro 85 58 73 49 / 40 10 10 0 Waverly 84 56 71 51 / 20 10 10 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Bedford-Cannon- Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson- Fentress-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lewis-Macon- Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson- Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-White- Williamson-Wilson. && $$ UPDATE.......Rose SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Rose