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000
FXUS65 KPUB 190952
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
352 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Overall best chance of precip over parts of the region will
   be late this afternoon/evening. Some light accum snow
   possible Pikes Peak Region (PPR).

 - Red Flag conditions again today over the San Luis Valley.

 - Messy weather for Saturday, with light precipitation during
   the morning, and showers during the afternoon and evening.

 - Unsettled weather through much of next week, with the
   greatest precipitation chances Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 348 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Currently...

Lots of clouds over the region this AM. A lower overcast was noted
over the plains as most areas were overcast with cigs in the 010 to
040 range while the clouds over the valleys were mid and high level.
Mtns stations had lower cigs. Radar was showing some echoes in the
narrow band extending from E-W across the state roughly just north
of I-70

Temps this morning at 3 AM  were in the U20s to L30s across N El
Paso county with 30s to around 40 across the rest of the plains. San
Luis Valley was still rather warm with mid 40s. Mtns were in the 20s
and 30s. A moist upslope easterly wind was noted over the plains with
light and variable winds over the higher terrain.

Overview...

Overall best chance of precip over our region will be over the east
central Colorado region (Greater Palmer Divide area eastward into
KS) this evening. Disturbance in the mid level flow coming in from
the NW will set up a favorable 700 mb warm air advection/convergence
zone over this region and this, combined with available moisture in
the lower levels, will allow for a band of showers to develop by
late afternoon into the evening hours. The best lift should then
push eastward with decreasing precip later tonight.

Today...

Forecast area will see 3 wx regimes over it today. Plains will be in
upslope all day with favorable easterly surface flow. However a
baroclinic boundary will develop over time along and just north of
the US50 region by later today. This will keep this area in more
clouds and cooler weather while generally south of this boundary
there will be more sun and much warmer temperatures. OVerall expect
highs in the 60s to around 70 south of US50, while north of the
boundary temps will be in the 50s with more clouds.

Over the high country, it will be rather mild with variable high to
mid level clouds over most of the region, with more clouds and
scattered showers over the central mtn region. It will be breezy and
rather dry over the San Luis Valley today, and this will once again
allow for critical fire weather conditions to develop over this area
by afternoon. Westerly surface flow will prevail across the higher
terrain through the day.

By mid day, the lift coming in from the northwest will allow for
showers to break out over the central mtn region and push east to
the Pikes Peak region by mid to late afternoon. Most of the precip
will be liquid although it will be snow generally above 9-10 kft.
Any accumulations today will be light, with an inch or two not out
of the question.

By late afternoon, showers will likely be most concentrated over the
north and west section of the Pikes Peak region with additional y
shower extending along the central mtns southward across the
southern mtns and will be scattered across the I-25 corridor region.
Some thunder will be possible, especially over the mtns.

Tonight...

The most widespread precip will occur this evening over the east
facing slopes of the southern mtns and most of the plains. Best pops
will occur over all of the Pikes Peak region and the Canon
City/Pueblo regions with more scattered pops over the rest of the
plains. As we progress into the early morning hours the showers will
push east, and will gradually decrease over the region. Lots of
clouds will be over a good part of the region (especially the
plains) by sunrise Saturday.

Min temps tonight will be in the 30s all areas, with temps below
freezing over the higher terrain and northern El Paso county.

As for accumulating snow, I expect the PPR will see some light
accums generally above 6500 feet, with an inch or two possible.
Teller county/far W El paso county should see 2 to 4 inches. Impacts
should be minimal. /Hodanish
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 348 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Saturday: A messy start to the weekend is expected, with cool
temperatures, and many areas getting some type of light
precipitation. During the morning hours, easterly surface flow
across the plains will be upsloping into the prominent eastern
terrain features (Rampart, Wet, and Sangre de Cristo Mountains).
This upsloping will allow for broad pockets of light precipitation
to persist across the eastern terrain features and the plains. Areas
along the mountains and Palmer Divide region will be predominantly
light snow/flurries, with areas along the Arkansas River Basin
predominantly light rain/drizzle. Elevations generally between these
zones will likely experience a mix of all of the aforementioned
precipitation modes. Any snow accumulations will be very light, with
around and less than 0.5 inch during the morning. Throughout the
morning, the easterly surface winds will lessen in magnitude, and
precipitation across these areas will decrease in coverage in
response. Then for the rest of the day, a broad shortwave trough
will push eastward across the region, bringing more messy conditions
during the afternoon and through the evening. This wave will bring
an uptick in forcing/support, and given this, showers will blossom
across much of the area, though mostly along and west of the I25
corridor. Snow is expected for the higher terrain areas, with rain
expected for most of the valleys and plains areas. Along with that,
given some minor instability materializing during the day, showers
may become transiently convective and some rumbles of thunder will
be possible. Then finally, as this shortwave exits the area during
the evening and forcing decreases, precipitation across the region
will dissipate, with dry conditions prevailing for much of Saturday
night. Looking at temperatures, during the day, areas across the
plains will remain well below average given thick cloud cover and a
cooler airmass in place, while areas generally west of the I25
corridor warm to near and slightly above average temperatures.
Saturday night chilly conditions are anticipated for most, with many
areas falling to and below freezing.

Sunday - Thursday: For the rest of the long term period, an
unsettled pattern is anticipated for south central and southeastern
Colorado. For much of this period, flow will be predominantly zonal
westerly flow, though waves within the overall flow will still have
some influence over the region. While no major forcing is expected
with the westerly flow, the waves will bring brief periods of
increased ascent, and will help to spark light showers throughout
this period. In addition to that, there are hints at another cold
front dropping southward during the period from late Monday into
Tuesday, and this could bring some precipitation as well. The for
the end of this timeframe, around Wednesday into Thursday, signals
in ensemble model guidance show another troughing pattern
developing, which would bring more increased precipitation chances
area wide, especially on Thursday. Looking at temperatures, an
overall warming trend is anticipated, with above to well above
average temperatures expected for much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 348 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

KCOS...

MVFR cigs likely through mid afternoon with cigs likely lowering to
IFR late this afternoon into this evening and lasting through the
remainder of the fcst period. There may be a brief period of VFR
cigs late this AM and early afternoon.  Showers will move in by late
afternoon and last into late evening, then decreasing. Usplope
southeast flow most of today becoming northerly this evening then
returning to east-southeast late tonight.

KPUB...

Lots of lower clouds through the period but should be vfr
until late this afternoon or early evening. showers will move in
this evening and then end by the early morning hours. COuld see IFR
cigs starting this evening lasting through the remainder of the fcst
period.

KALS...

VFR expected today and most of this evening. May see some lower cigs
to MVFR late tonight. Gusty W-SW winds this afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
COZ224.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...HODANISH