055
FXUS65 KTWC 140935
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
235 AM MST Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry and locally breezy conditions will persist
this week. High temperatures will be near to slightly above normal
through Thursday, with highs warming to several degrees above normal
Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Overall, a fairly quiet weather pattern through the
upcoming weekend, with just a few minor impacts. There is just
enough mid level moisture in place for some afternoon/early evening
buildups today through Thursday, especially in the White Mountains.
A weak upper level low currently off the southern California coast
will slowly shift east-northeast through Thursday, before shifting
east of the region on Friday. This system will interact with the mid
level moisture in place on Thursday, resulting in a slight chance of
mainly dry thunderstorms in the White Mountains. That is, storms
which produce erratic/gusty winds and lightning and little to no
rainfall. This weak low will also tighten the gradient just enough
to result in some elevated wind speeds and near critical fire
weather conditions as it moves across the area on Wednesday and
Thursday, especially to the east of Tucson. Winds will be southwest
on Wednesday as this system approaches and then west-northwest on
Thursday as the system lifts northeast of the area, with wind speeds
of 15-20 mph and gusts to near 30 mph over Cochise, Graham and
Greenlee counties.

Otherwise, a shortwave ridge of high pressure will build in across
the desert southwest over the upcoming weekend behind the system.
This will lead to dry conditions returning areawide and warmer
temperatures. High temperatures will top out 3-5 degrees above
normal on Friday, warming to 6-8 degrees above normal Saturday and
Sunday. The current forecast has 99 degrees for Tucson on both
Saturday and Sunday. However, NBM probabilities of 100 degrees for
Tucson are 29% for Saturday and 36% on Sunday. It will be real close
to that century mark for a couple of hours each afternoon this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 15/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 8k-11k ft AGL and some higher cirrus level clouds
at times thru the forecast period. SFC wind less than 12 kts and
variable in direction thru 14/18Z and again aft 15/04Z. SFC wind at
10-15 kts and gusts to 18-25 kts between 14/18Z and 15/04Z, with the
strongest SFC wind east of KTUS in the vicinity of KALK, KDUG and
KSAD. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be within a couple of degrees
of normal through Thursday. Highs then warm to 3-5 degrees above
normal Friday and 6-8 degrees above normal Saturday and Sunday. Min
RH values in the valleys will be in the single digits to lower teens
the next 7 days, with values in the mountains generally between 10-
20 percent. 20-foot winds will follow typical diurnal wind trends
this week, with afternoon and early evening gustiness due to strong
surface heating. The strongest 20-foot winds appear to be Wednesday
and Thursday, especially to the east of Tucson, with wind speeds of
15-20 mph and gusts to near 30 mph. Southwest winds are expected on
Wednesday and west-northwest winds on Thursday. There will be just
enough mid level moisture in place through Thursday for a few
buildups during the afternoon and early evening hours in the White
Mountains, especially Thursday. Any storms that do develop will be
dry, with gusty/erratic winds and lightning, but little to no
measurable rainfall.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Zell

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