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000
FXUS64 KBRO 160555 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1255 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WERE NEAR
2000FT AT KMFE AND KEBG...WILL ADD TEMPO FOR KMFE. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP
NEAR 2000FT. VFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS
BEGIN TO LIFT AND BURN OFF. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. CEILINGS
WERE NEAR 2600FT AT KPIL. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP NEAR 2000FT AS MIXING DECREASES WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE SUN MORNING AS
LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO LIFT AND BURN OFF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/
SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SOUTH TEXAS
CURRENTLY TRAPPED BETWEEN PERSISTENT TROUGH ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
RIDGE CENTERED AT THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE MAJORITY OF
THE TROUGH FINALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT OF WEAKNESS IN THE
EMERGING RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN IMPACT
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE. DRIER
AIR ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT ALOFT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT
PRECIPITATION FORMATION FOR THE AREA...WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO
FALL TO 1.5 INCHES OR LESS. THIS WILL INHIBIT SHOWER FORMATION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...AND BEGIN THE SLOW INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE. A SHOWER OR TWO MAY STILL OCCUR IN THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW UNTIL THE DRIEST AIR ARRIVES...DUE TO
CONVECTIVE TEMPS STILL IN THE MID 90S. WENT WITH NAM GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 90S ALONG THE COAST
TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS INLAND.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...5H RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL EXTEND INTO TEXAS AND WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS
THE RGV AND SOUTH TEXAS MON THROUGH WED. DRY AND HOT WITH VERY
LITTLE HOPE FOR RAIN. EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE CONTINUES IN CONTROL
WED...MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THU
AND FRI. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH THE GFS
KEEPING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON THE
RGV...WHILE LAST NIGHTS 00Z EURO BRINGS THE SYSTEM NW AND MAKING
LANDFALL ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF BRO FRIDAY MORNING. IF THIS
SCENARIO PREVAILS...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN...PERHAPS
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE MUCH HIGHER. EVEN THOUGH THE GFS KEEPS
THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH...IT DOES INDICATE THAT A BROAD INVERTED
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WOULD SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DIRECTLY
IMPACT THE RGV...BUT CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING. NO MODEL AT THIS
TIME IS INDICATING A WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM...BUT ONCE AGAIN ALL
SHOULD KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE. AT THE VERY LEAST THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD HELP
MODERATE TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR SO OFF DAYTIME HIGHS. UNTIL
THEN...WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECMWF NUMBERS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
DUE TO MUCH DRIER MID LEVELS AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...STEADY PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF MAIN STEERING LOW AND HIGH WILL KEEP MARINE
CONDITIONS CONSISTENT THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE...WHILE SEA HEIGHTS
GENERALLY ARE AROUND 3 FEET.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE JUST A BIT IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN NORTH TEXAS. MARINE
CONDITIONS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HOW
THIS SYSTEMS DEVELOPS AND WHERE IT GOES WILL LIKELY HAVE AN
IMPACT ON SEAS. FOR NOW KEPT INHERITED INCREASE IN SEAS THAT
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THU THROUGH SAT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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