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000
FXUS64 KBRO 191852
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
152 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST AS THE EARLY DOG DAYS SETTLE IN
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A SLOW BROAD
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST WILL BE
SLOW IN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE OF NOTE BELOW 925MB.

TONIGHT...MARINE LAYER TO WORK ITS WAY INLAND WITH STRATUS TO REFORM
AT AND BELOW THE SURFACE INVERSION SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
DEEPENING AND SPREADING NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE MONDAY. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER TIGHT TONIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECOUPLING
OF THE WINDS. THE CONSTANT MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZE AND DEVELOPING
OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS 4 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OR IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

MONDAY...MODELS SUGGEST AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS CONFIRM THAT
DRIER MID LAYER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE LONE STAR STATE
INCLUDING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY KEEPING US RAIN FREE. SOME LIMITED
RELIEF IN THE HUMIDITY AS THE DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE LOW TO MID 70
DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST BUT NOT SOAR TO HIGH WITH THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS A BIT
SUPPRESSED WITH THE TROUGH DOMINATING MORE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

MONDAY NIGHT...A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
LITTLE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT MODERATE LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
VERY WARM AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS BUILDS INLAND.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY INTO TUESDAY KEEPING A
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
BE CLOSE TO THE CWA. AT THIS TIME...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY IMPACT THE NORTH AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE
VALLEY ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S NEAR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.

ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MID WEEK WHILE THE
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL LOWER AND THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL INCREMENT ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY GIVING THE VALLEY ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER
TIGHT WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS TO BE JUST ON THE CUSP OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS...20 KNOTS AND 7 FEET. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE STRONGER
SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS OVER THE BAY TO FALL JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNSET WITH STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS. THE BROADENING OF THE WIND FETCH AND LONG DURATION
HAS BEEN BUILDING SEAS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WITH THIS TREND
CONTINUING SEAS COULD APPROACH 7 FEET AS EARLY AS TONIGHT OR
MONDAY MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING POSTED OFFSHORE.


TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN
INCREASE IN SEAS TUESDAY AS A LOW SURFACE PRESSURE STRENGTHENS DUE
TO A FRONT PUSHING SOUTH. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF BUT NO IMPACT EXPECTED FOR THE GULF
WATERS WITH SE WINDS CONTINUING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY WEAK AS
IT MOVES SOUTH...SO DO NOT EXPECT A DRASTIC CHANGE IN WINDS. A SCA
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK SEAS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FEET AS RIDGE BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AND CENTERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS NO MORE THAT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 5 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  90  78  86 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          77  91  78  90 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            76  94  77  93 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              77  96  77  95 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  98  77  99 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  81  75  85 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

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