000
FXUS64 KBRO 161143 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
643 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR HAS LIMITED LOW LEVEL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST...KBRO/KHRL...WHILE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
ACROSS KMFE AND WEST OF HWY 281. FULL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MID MORNING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THIS LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AS WEAKNESS ALOFT CONTINUES
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE GULF
WILL BUILD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
RESULTING IN DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BRO SOUNDING SATURDAY EVENING SHOWS 1.61 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS/ECMWF FOR POPS AS THE NAM
MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WET. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ALONG THE COAST TO
LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS INLAND TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. THIS
IS CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE AND LATEST GFS/ECMWF MOS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...UNFORTUNATELY...THE
RIDGING ALOFT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL
DOMINATE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF FORECAST AS WELL. 500
MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN EXTENDED OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ALL THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
WITH HOT TEMPERATURES OVER THE BRO CWFA.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 17 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS OF 4 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 4 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/08 UTC.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS WITH LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SMALL CRAFT
MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO SWELLS GENERATED FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER AT
THAT TIME OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63