000
FXUS64 KBRO 160644 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
144 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF LOW LEVEL SC FORMING UP
MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 AS THE MOIST NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
INVERSION FORMS. THESE LOW LEVEL DECKS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THE DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL HEATING
INCREASES THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ERODE ALLOWING THE CEILINGS
TO INCREASE. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE NIGHTTIME MOIST
INVERSION REFORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500MB LOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY ALLOWING SUBSIDENCE TO FINALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING FROM WEST
TO EAST QUICKLY AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING BEFORE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SOUTH
ON THURSDAY AND WITH LESS CLOUD COVER TOMORROW...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST...THURS
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
TEXAS ON FRIDAY PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN
WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. WARM TO VERY WARM...DRY...AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 90
TO AROUND 100 OVER THE WEST.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 18 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA
OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT SO WILL ISSUE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AS A RESULT. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY WATERS THURSDAY AND OFFSHORE WATERS
THURS NIGHT AS A RESULT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  87  75  87  75 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          86  74  89  75 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            91  75  93  75 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN              94  76  94  76 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  75  82  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...68