000
FXUS64 KBRO 131856
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
156 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...H5 LOW CONTINUES
OVER BAJA MEXICO...WAITING FOR THE NEXT LOW HEADING TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS TODAY...BUT IS BEING COUNTERACTED BY THE LOSS OF SOME
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. TONIGHT THE NEXT WEAK
WAVE EMBEDDED AROUND THE H5 LOW SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE SFC RIDGE CENTRALIZES ACROSS THE NW GULF...ALLOWING THE
SE FLOW TO RETURN MORE GULF MOISTURE TO THE REGION. SOME ELEVATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ENHANCE ECHOES
ALREADY SHOWING UP ON KBRO RADAR TO THE SW IN MEXICO MOVING NE.
TOMORROW...PW VALUES REACH 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES...AND MINIMAL TO NO
CAPPING SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. HAVE FURTHER INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR TOMORROW...REACHING THE LIKELY CATEGORY OUT
WEST. RAINY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 LOW TO
THE WEST FINALLY EJECTS THROUGH TEXAS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE 500MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO THAT HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES ACROSS THE CWA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL FINALLY
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A RESULT. VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AND EVEN AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO MENTION ANY RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WINDS WILL REMAIN MODEST DUE TO THE LACK
OF SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
SEAS WILL REMAIN AGITATED AROUND 4 FEET THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE
A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BORDERLINE SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  71  81  73  84 /  30  40  50  30
BROWNSVILLE          70  82  72  84 /  30  40  50  30
HARLINGEN            69  83  72  88 /  30  40  50  30
MCALLEN              70  85  72  90 /  30  60  50  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  86  71  92 /  30  60  60  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  79  74  81 /  30  40  50  30
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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