000
FXUS64 KBRO 110917
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
417 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...BUSY NIGHT WITH THE WELL
ADVERTISED MCS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WAS
LIMITED CONVECTION WAS BRIEFLY INTENSE AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVE
THROUGH ZAPATA COUNTY. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS DOING ITS MAGIC WITH
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE RANCHLANDS AND NOW OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
VALLEY. THIS IS EXCELLENT FOR THE RIO GRANDE WATER SHED WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES FALLEN IN SOME SPOTS OVERNIGHT AND
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST OF STORMS. SET UP
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY STILL IN PLACE WITH UPPER
LOW/TROUGH REMAIN OUT WEST WITH A DIVERGENT FLOW AND DISTURBANCES
TO ROTATE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. HEAVY RAIN AND HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
VALLEY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND MOVES OVER THE REGION. BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED. MODELS
ARE NOT AS BULLISH WITH THE POPS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH BEST MOISTURE MOVING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BORDER. DO NOT THINK THAT WE WILL BE OUT OF
THE PICTURE WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING TO OUR WEST. WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY SUBJECT TO WHEN THE RAIN TAPPERS OFF
BUT WILL LET GOING NUMBERS RIDE WITH LIMITED HEATING TO TAKE PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO
MOVE EAST OF SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY THEN BEGIN A SLOW INCREASE AS AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.


&&

.MARINE.../TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SOME
CONVECTION TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MODERATE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE EASTERLY FLOW AND CHANCE OF
RAIN CONTINUES ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW RESUME MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES EAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LOWER PRESSURE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  70  80  71 /  80  20  40  30
BROWNSVILLE          82  69  82  70 /  80  20  40  30
HARLINGEN            84  68  81  69 /  80  20  40  30
MCALLEN              85  69  82  69 /  60  30  40  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      86  68  82  68 /  40  30  40  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  71  78  71 /  80  20  40  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/55