Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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017
AXUS74 KBRO 200218
DGTBRO

TXC047-061-215-247-261-427-489-505-220230
Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
830 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

...Moderate drought conditions across portions of Jim Hogg
and Starr Counties...
...Drought conditions expected to develop across the rest of deep
South Texas this winter...

.SYNOPSIS...

Rainfall was below normal across most of deep South Texas during the
month of October. Rainfall was above normal across southern portions
of Zapata and Hidalgo counties...as well as across western portions
of Cameron county and extreme southeast portions of Starr county.
During the last 90 days...deep South Texas has received anywhere
from 10 to 90 percent of their normal rainfall except across extreme
northwest portions of Zapata county...some portions of Hidalgo
county and extreme southwest portions of Kenedy county...where 90 to
200 percent of normal rainfall fell.

According to the latest United States Drought Monitor...moderate
(D1) drought conditions were across the southwest half of Jim Hogg
county...northern portions of Starr county and extreme northeast
portions of Kenedy county. Abnormally dry conditions (D0) were
across the remainder of Jim Hogg county...most of Starr county and
eastern portions of Zapata county as well as across most of
Cameron...Willacy and Kenedy counties. Drought conditions across
deep South Texas are affecting mainly agricultural interests and
grasslands.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.

According to the National Interagency Fire Center, the potential for
significant wildland fires is normal.  The latest Fire Danger Map
from the Texas Inter-Agency Coordination Center (TICC) on November
18th indicates a moderate fire danger over most of the area except
for low across Starr...Jim Hogg and Zapata counties as well as
northern portions of Brooks county. The latest Keetch-Byram Drought
Indices (KBDI) were 300 to 400 over Hidalgo county...400 to 500 over
across the rest of deep South Texas except across Starr county where
indices were 500 to 600 and Jim Hogg county where indices were 600
to 700. County burn bans are currently in effect for Zapata, Jim
Hogg, Brooks, Starr and Willacy counties. Residents are urged to
take extra precautions when conducting any outside burning, and
should contact county officials for any scheduled burning. Residents
are also reminded that fire danger can change quickly from one day
to another as winds and relative humidity values vary.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture and Texas
Agrilife Extension Service Agents...pasture and rangeland conditions
remained fair to good but all rangelands and crops continued to
suffer due to lack of moisture. Livestock producers with animals on
native range and pastures did not report any supplemental feeding
activities in some areas but cattle and wildlife received
supplemental feed in some areas. The live cattle market in Brooks
county reported another good week with fewer head in the barn but
prices remained on a positive trend. Fall vegetable crops were
progressing well. In Hidalgo county...harvest of citrus and
sugarcane continued. Weed problems were reported throughout Brooks
county in pastureland and row crop fields.

WATER RESTRICTIONS.

According to the Texas Commission of Environmental Quality
(TCEQ)...there are currently 31 cities or water supply entities that
are under voluntary or mandatory water restrictions. There are 7
Public Water Supply entities in Cameron county, 13 in Hidalgo
county, 6 in Starr county, 3 in Zapata county and 2 in Willacy
county. All water users are urged to conserve water.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

Overall, October 2017 brought near normal temperatures and below
normal rainfall across most of deep South Texas except across
southern portions of Zapata and Hidalgo counties...as well as across
western portions of Cameron county and extreme southeast portions of
Starr county where above normal rainfall fell.

Current rainfall to date for the month of November at Brownsville is
0.66 inches or 0.62 inches below normal. Year to date rainfall is
21.59 inches or 4.16 inches below normal.

Current rainfall to date for the month of November at Harlingen is
0.68 inches or 0.46 inches below normal. Year to date rainfall is
18.29 inches or 5.27 inches below normal.

Current rainfall to date for the month of November at McAllen is
2.99 inches or 2.39 inches above normal. Year to date rainfall is
18.36 inches or 2.36 inches below normal.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

Meteorological outlook...November 20th through November 26th...A
weak coastal trough will provide some showers along the lower Texas
coast on the 20th. A cold front will move through deep South Texas
early on the 22nd providing some showers across the coastal sections
of deep South Texas. Another cold front is expected to move through
deep South Texas on the 26th but not much in the way of rain chances
are expected from the 23rd through the 26th. Temperatures will be
below normal November 20th and above normal the 21st before
returning to below normal on the 22nd. Below normal temperatures
will prevail on the 23rd before returning to above normal on the
24th and will continue through the 26th. Overall average
temperatures will be above normal from November 25th through
November 29th.

Rainfall totals will generally be a hundredth of an inch to a
quarter of an inch across eastern portions of deep South Texas
through November 26th. Overall average rainfall will be below normal
from November 25th through November 29th. Any rainfall that occurs
in Jim Hogg and Starr counties through the rest of November will
provide some drought relief for the area.

The long range climate outlook for deep South Texas through February
2018...derived from guidance from the National Weather Service and
the Climate Prediction Center...indicates that generally above
normal temperatures and below normal rainfall will be expected for
deep South Texas through the Winter of 2018. The current U.S.
seasonal drought outlook indicates drought development is likely
across deep South Texas through February 2018. At this time...the
potential for drought conditions ending through February 2018 is
low.

Any rainfall that affects deep south Texas through February 2018
will provide some drought relief from the current drought
conditions.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

According to the Texas Water Development Board (TDWB)...the current
Texas water share at Falcon Reservoir has increased during the past
four weeks to 52.6 percent. This is an increase from a previous
level of 24.8 percent three months ago. The Texas water share at
Falcon at this time last year was at 35.9 percent. The current Texas
water share at Amistad Reservoir has increased during the past four
weeks to 75.6 percent. This is an increase from a previous level of
74.1 percent three months ago. The Texas water share at Amistad at
this time last year was at 83.7 percent. The reservoirs at Falcon
and Amistad provide much of the water for the Rio Grande valley.
Residents, including growers and ranchers of the lower Rio Grande
valley are urged to take all necessary steps to conserve water.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

The next Drought Information Statement will be issued around
Sunday, December 17th, 2017.

RELATED WEB SITES...

For additional information...and the latest weather forecast for
deep South Texas...visit our website at www.weather.gov/rgv. You may
also visit the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center
website at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and get the latest information on
reservoir levels from the International Boundary and Water
Commission (IBWC) at www.ibwc.gov.

Additional web sites:

NWS BROWNSVILLE DROUGHT PAGE:
http://www.weather.gov/bro/drought

NWS BROWNSVILLE Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS):
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=bro

U.S. Drought Monitor:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

U.S. Drought Portal:
http://www.drought.gov

National Drought Mitigation Center:
http://drought.unl.edu

Texas Water Development Board Reservoir Website:
https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

Texas Interagency Coordination Center (TICC):
http://ticc.tamu.edu

Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (water restrictions):
www.tceq.texas.gov/drinkingwater/trot/location.html

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

The Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAA`s
National Weather Service and National Centers for Environmental
Information...the USDA...state and regional center climatologists
and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this
statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites...the
USDA...state Agrilife Extension Service District agents, Texas Inter-
agency Coordination Center, Texas Forest Service, state and federal
wildlife departments Texas Commission on Environmental Quality
(TCEQ), Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) and the International
Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC).

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

If you have any questions or comments about this drought information
statement...please contact...

National Weather Service
20 South Vermillion Road
Brownsville, TX
Phone: 956-504-1432
Email: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$

Castillo



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