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000
FXUS61 KBTV 201801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
201 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ANTICIPATED WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS EXIT THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN RETURN BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 123 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUD CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH BREAKS IN THE LEE OR EAST SIDE OF ADKS
AND SRN GREENS. BREAKS LIKELY TO INCREASE GRADUALLY...BUT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE OVERALL
PICTURE THIS AFTN. FEW BREAKS IN SRN ZONES COULD LEAD TO LGT RAIN
SHOWERS W/ISLD TS AS COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER THE FA. HAVE
INCLUDED SLGT CHC -SHRA AND TS OVER SRN ZONES THRU EARLY EVENING
HRS. OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL DEALING WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA HAS STALLED
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...OVERALL LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THINS SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE AS
SKIES BECOME PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. STILL A CHANCE FOR A COUPLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF
CAPE...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 418 AM EDT MONDAY...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT A DRY NIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOUDY AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS APPROACHES. IT WILL BE QUITE A MILD NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER CONTRIBUTING TO LOWS ONLY IN THE
50S TO LOCALLY 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN BEGINS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
LONG TERM AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE BTV CWA AND INTO NH AND MAINE. EXPECTED TO SEE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREASING TO OVER
1000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL WITH TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EDT MONDAY...THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
ACTIVE AS POSITIVE TILT 500MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SERN ONTARIO ALONG MODERATELY STRONG FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING WSW-
ENE JUST NORTH OF OUR INTL BORDER. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION THRU THE
EXTENDED IS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE
00Z ECMWF JUST A BIT FASTER.

NORTH COUNTRY BEGINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SFC
LOW TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BNDRY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER. SHOULD MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO
LOWER 60S. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN VT AND NRN
NY WHERE POPS ARE NEAR 70 PERCENT. LOWER POPS ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT
FURTHER REMOVED FROM PROJECTED FRONTAL ZONE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT...AND SFC LOW TRACKS EWD INTO
NH/MAINE. 00Z GFS MODEL INDICATES AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUPPORTS AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY ... SO
CARRIED A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
70S...WARMEST ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF
FRONTAL BNDRY BASED ON PRESENT INDICATIONS. GRADUALLY CLEARING
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN WET
CONDITIONS TUE-THU AND RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW LOWER 50S IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING N-NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
CLEARING SKIES AND GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS 65-70F. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN
CONTROL AS IT DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING MAINLY DRY WX
CONDITIONS THRU NEXT WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW
BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY AFTN OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NRN/NERN VT. DON/T FORESEE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF PRECIP AMTS WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN
EXPECTED DRYNESS OF LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPR 60S. PROSPECT FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT
SHOULD BRING LOWS LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT LOCALLY DOWN
TO 35F IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BREAKS OF VFR
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR SOME IFR
RETURNS EARLY TOMORROW ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS AND MIST.

SOME INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM KSLK TO
KRUT COULD POP A SHOWER MOVING FROM NW TO SE, COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
ISLD -TSRA.

GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MIST POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TOWARD EARLY MORNING WITH MVFR LCL IFR POSSIBLE AT KSLK.
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TUE MORNING AS
FRONTAL SYSTEM BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUE PM...WARM FRONT BRINGS MVFR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH
BRIEF IFR.
WED-THU...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT INTO FRI/SAT...MAINLY VFR AS DRY NWLY WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/KGM
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...SISSON